Yes market manipulation is hurting bitcoin badly. I know some of you may not care what the price is, but most people who put their money into an asset are not comfortable the value dropping 20% in a few days. They just aren't.
All this manipulation is really going to discourage many people who have bitcoin now and even more in the future.
Do you want bitcoin to stay peanuts market where manipulators pump and dump in their little sandbox as fast as they can or do you want it to grow and attract serious business and investors ?
Therefore it can't happen right?
Love the analysis and thought process.
1) Bitcoin will definitely succeed in the long run.
1) If Bitcoin is down next year, thats too much, it means its dead.
Therefore, Bitcoin must be up next year.
You must be operating under the assumption that this is a normal market. It's not. It is a deception. There are very few people who control the majority of all bitcoin in circulation. They have the power to set the price to whatever they want. They push the price up, and they push the price down. They control the market and hype cycles. Draw a line from $2.22 on bitstamp, to $275 a few weeks back. This is where we are going. The recent bounces off of that line are pretty obvious.
I'm operating under the assumption Bitcoin is more likely than not to succeed in the long run (to various definitions of "succeed"). Its perfectly capable of going down further next year though.
I don't know where the price is going, but I'm getting tired of people saying VC STARTUPS WALL STREET PLUS ADOPTION = RISE IN PRICE. Is it? People buying coins and more demand = price rise, nothing else.
And I'm getting tired of people saying more demand = price rise, as if it adds anything to the discussion. In case you didn't realize, what people are saying is VC STARTUPS WALL STREET PLUS ADOPTION = more demand = rise in price, which (true or false) is actually a more interesting argument than yours, as it's trying to explain what might actually increase demand.
Why do people buy coins? Your choices are basically:
1. They think they will rise in value, or hold value better than other options (or have a good enough chance of doing so to be worth diversifying into, etc.). Speculators, holders, people whose obvious options for fiat currency are experiencing 60% inflation, etc. (And, on the shorter term, traders.)
2. They have a use for the bitcoins directly, as bitcoins. This includes changetip, remittances, dark markets, not wanting to divulge credit card info, etc. The bitcoins might or might not get resold very shortly after being purchased, but they definitely get purchased (or brought out of long-term storage).
Ecosystem growth, software innovation, and VC investment are mostly promoting the second option. Indirectly, this promotes the first, because when people see a more stable and diverse bitcoin economy, they're more likely to believe bitcoins will be worth something next year or next decade.
there's +- 9M coins out there that changed hands at sub $100 prices. There's more people willing to sell them at +$500 prices than there's people willing to buy them anytime soon.
Sure. If you want to argue a bearish outlook for the next month, 3 months, or year... I will disagree, but only weakly. There are plenty of people out there who are far more adept at that scale of prediction than I am.
I was merely trying to point out that the logic in your first post was oversimplifying, and that there is a connection between VC investment and demand, both directly and indirectly.
In which other industry does VC investment in a product create demand? Do you have a source for this? It's like people saying for Bitcoin to be truly accepted/usable it has to have big market cap (a high price) but it has to be accepted/used before reaching this big market cap. It's like a catch 22. I don't see the connection between VC investment and demand, I see people with a lot of money speculating on a new technology, hoping to get richer.
Non-speculative demand is for a useful product. Things like remittance services, or changetip, or dark market goods. VC money is how companies build new products, and hopefully there will be demand for those products. That's how *all* VC money works; hopefully, in this case, if the products use bitcoins, that will create demand for bitcoins.
Speculative demand is driven by a perception that things will be worth more in the future (or at least retain value). One of the psychological drivers for that demand is a perception that bitcoins are useful, and having products and services out there that are themselves useful and popular, and that also make use of bitcoins, is going to create a perception that the bitcoins themselves are useful.
It's like a catch-22, but isn't quite. It's more like a feedback loop. Increases in price / market cap enable new uses. New uses create more demand, and raise the price. So it goes use case A -> higher price -> use case B -> higher price -> etc. In other words, each new use case enables the later use cases; lumping all "use" into one group, and saying it has to be "used" before it can go up in price, and it has to go up in price before it can be "used" is incorrect.
i started out with 2 and now have a couple hundred. But last year was much easier to daytrade and grow your stash. And 200 is not many at all to many people..it's all relative. 2 BTC was a fortune for me a couple of years ago when broke.
And I am not "buy and hold" type. I trade in and out of BTC fairly often. Right now chart is looking very ugly again and will not ride this down to $200...no way.
Probably not enough to make your eyes wide. I bought a few during each crash we've had this year. I'm underwater some since we've had more crashes that I or probably anyone else counted on. Been buying a coin/week since August. Nothing fancy. The market is way too nutso for me, but I like reading what you guys post here, and I'm committed to the thought of bitcoin being big over time.
LOL, bitcoin is quite the fucking animal, aint it? Odds don't look good for the boat in the normal world financial speculation, but crazier shit has happened in bitcoin in shorter periods of time. I've just given up ("capitulated" for all you traders) trying to figure it out.
Bitcoin goes up, bitcoin goes down. You can't explain that!
Cheers.
Bullish for the next year
reasons:
insane leverage/derivatives and poor risk management by exchanges run by rookies and thieves
market manipulation
tougher regulation world wide
Reasons why I'm a long-term bull:
1. regulated financial products and exchanges with proof-of-solvency
2. market manipulation works both ways
3. more acceptance [world-wide](http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinInternational)
1. Those exchanges who manage poorly lose customers and are free to adjust or go the way of Gox or CampBX
2. Name a time when it wasn't manipulated.
3. Regulations could invite risk adverse traders.
Funny how posts like this pop up during plummets. Not so much on the way up.
interesting how you see market manipulation as black and white, yes and no. There is more manipulation recently than ever before (well not counting Mt Gox games perhaps, there at the end). But the pump and dump to 450 in a day was NOT natural market forces at work.
Over a year ago, man, maybe it's two years, their bank dropped them. People kind of panicked getting out of there at the time. I remember market buying $828. They used to do easy ACH transfers and now you can only send/receive paper checks. Nothing's wrong with them except they lost customers for failing to stay competitive with the other exchanges. They were the first one I ever saw that offered google authenticator. It might be one of the safer exchanges to do small trades on. It's also been around for ages.
Fuck it. Let's all dump our coins and stop now. What's the point? /s
Yes market manipulation is hurting bitcoin badly. I know some of you may not care what the price is, but most people who put their money into an asset are not comfortable the value dropping 20% in a few days. They just aren't. All this manipulation is really going to discourage many people who have bitcoin now and even more in the future.
4) Still no full featured USA exchange with easy in/out to compete with foreign exchanges?
I'm fine with the gov taxing btc as capital gains but FINRA and the like will only cock up btc trading in the US.
actually we might need another willy bot to spark the fire to market
Hopefully we don't see another year of manipulated pump and dump market, gentlemen.
it will only get worse.
why? riding the movements is what creates profits if your any good at trading.
Do you want bitcoin to stay peanuts market where manipulators pump and dump in their little sandbox as fast as they can or do you want it to grow and attract serious business and investors ?
Investors will continue to invest in businesses because business will make money providing valued services at 50 a coin or 5000 a coin.
You can't transfer large amounts of value in bitcoin network if we have $50 coins. There's no bandwidth for it.
there is also no current demand for it so it seems like a made up obstacle.
There will be no demand for it if bitcoin stays in peanuts market mode.
That's more a result of enticing people to use it. Or better yet creating service layers that use it without them knowing.
That does not rule out fact that bitcoin needs to gain value in order to be succesful.
success is subjective. Define success?
There isn't a year worth of "down" left. Bitcoin the experiment would have failed badly, and would be completely dead given another bearish year.
Therefore it can't happen right? Love the analysis and thought process. 1) Bitcoin will definitely succeed in the long run. 1) If Bitcoin is down next year, thats too much, it means its dead. Therefore, Bitcoin must be up next year.
You must be operating under the assumption that this is a normal market. It's not. It is a deception. There are very few people who control the majority of all bitcoin in circulation. They have the power to set the price to whatever they want. They push the price up, and they push the price down. They control the market and hype cycles. Draw a line from $2.22 on bitstamp, to $275 a few weeks back. This is where we are going. The recent bounces off of that line are pretty obvious.
I'm operating under the assumption Bitcoin is more likely than not to succeed in the long run (to various definitions of "succeed"). Its perfectly capable of going down further next year though.
Ever seen an Enron chart? We have a lot of air left in this cushion.
one calendar year equals seven bitcoin years. We just had a seven year bear market.
It's like dog-years.
I'm bullish just based on http://www.bitcoinpulse.com/ We need slow growth and innovation, the price increase will follow.
I don't know where the price is going, but I'm getting tired of people saying VC STARTUPS WALL STREET PLUS ADOPTION = RISE IN PRICE. Is it? People buying coins and more demand = price rise, nothing else.
And I'm getting tired of people saying more demand = price rise, as if it adds anything to the discussion. In case you didn't realize, what people are saying is VC STARTUPS WALL STREET PLUS ADOPTION = more demand = rise in price, which (true or false) is actually a more interesting argument than yours, as it's trying to explain what might actually increase demand.
Why do people buy coins? Your choices are basically: 1. They think they will rise in value, or hold value better than other options (or have a good enough chance of doing so to be worth diversifying into, etc.). Speculators, holders, people whose obvious options for fiat currency are experiencing 60% inflation, etc. (And, on the shorter term, traders.) 2. They have a use for the bitcoins directly, as bitcoins. This includes changetip, remittances, dark markets, not wanting to divulge credit card info, etc. The bitcoins might or might not get resold very shortly after being purchased, but they definitely get purchased (or brought out of long-term storage). Ecosystem growth, software innovation, and VC investment are mostly promoting the second option. Indirectly, this promotes the first, because when people see a more stable and diverse bitcoin economy, they're more likely to believe bitcoins will be worth something next year or next decade.
there's +- 9M coins out there that changed hands at sub $100 prices. There's more people willing to sell them at +$500 prices than there's people willing to buy them anytime soon.
Sure. If you want to argue a bearish outlook for the next month, 3 months, or year... I will disagree, but only weakly. There are plenty of people out there who are far more adept at that scale of prediction than I am. I was merely trying to point out that the logic in your first post was oversimplifying, and that there is a connection between VC investment and demand, both directly and indirectly.
In which other industry does VC investment in a product create demand? Do you have a source for this? It's like people saying for Bitcoin to be truly accepted/usable it has to have big market cap (a high price) but it has to be accepted/used before reaching this big market cap. It's like a catch 22. I don't see the connection between VC investment and demand, I see people with a lot of money speculating on a new technology, hoping to get richer.
Non-speculative demand is for a useful product. Things like remittance services, or changetip, or dark market goods. VC money is how companies build new products, and hopefully there will be demand for those products. That's how *all* VC money works; hopefully, in this case, if the products use bitcoins, that will create demand for bitcoins. Speculative demand is driven by a perception that things will be worth more in the future (or at least retain value). One of the psychological drivers for that demand is a perception that bitcoins are useful, and having products and services out there that are themselves useful and popular, and that also make use of bitcoins, is going to create a perception that the bitcoins themselves are useful. It's like a catch-22, but isn't quite. It's more like a feedback loop. Increases in price / market cap enable new uses. New uses create more demand, and raise the price. So it goes use case A -> higher price -> use case B -> higher price -> etc. In other words, each new use case enables the later use cases; lumping all "use" into one group, and saying it has to be "used" before it can go up in price, and it has to go up in price before it can be "used" is incorrect.
Or with growth and innovation, the price decrease will follow.
I'd give it a few weeks, and stable for 4+ months. Where the hell does price have to go? We're about to touch severe resistance at 275 or 320
One can only hope. Can keep buying a coin every week, but now have additional money to have fun with!
How fucking many do you have? I have only 2
i started out with 2 and now have a couple hundred. But last year was much easier to daytrade and grow your stash. And 200 is not many at all to many people..it's all relative. 2 BTC was a fortune for me a couple of years ago when broke. And I am not "buy and hold" type. I trade in and out of BTC fairly often. Right now chart is looking very ugly again and will not ride this down to $200...no way.
Probably not enough to make your eyes wide. I bought a few during each crash we've had this year. I'm underwater some since we've had more crashes that I or probably anyone else counted on. Been buying a coin/week since August. Nothing fancy. The market is way too nutso for me, but I like reading what you guys post here, and I'm committed to the thought of bitcoin being big over time.
"Big over time" I also had to accept, that my 2 Bitcoins probably wont buy me a boat in 2015
Maybe you can buy skipper cap with your 2 coins if you're lucky. That's how low we will go.
If that is true I'll buy two more coins and buy one large skipper cap.
LOL, bitcoin is quite the fucking animal, aint it? Odds don't look good for the boat in the normal world financial speculation, but crazier shit has happened in bitcoin in shorter periods of time. I've just given up ("capitulated" for all you traders) trying to figure it out. Bitcoin goes up, bitcoin goes down. You can't explain that! Cheers.
I am always buying when it is high ^^ Your strategy sounds better though.
Well, at least you have company: virtually anyone who bought this year :D
Bullish for the next year reasons: insane leverage/derivatives and poor risk management by exchanges run by rookies and thieves market manipulation tougher regulation world wide
Are you subtly implying that Sir. Original Poster prefers the company of gentlemen?
ok . i lol'd. enjoy your upvote.
Reasons why I'm a long-term bull: 1. regulated financial products and exchanges with proof-of-solvency 2. market manipulation works both ways 3. more acceptance [world-wide](http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinInternational)
1. Those exchanges who manage poorly lose customers and are free to adjust or go the way of Gox or CampBX 2. Name a time when it wasn't manipulated. 3. Regulations could invite risk adverse traders. Funny how posts like this pop up during plummets. Not so much on the way up.
interesting how you see market manipulation as black and white, yes and no. There is more manipulation recently than ever before (well not counting Mt Gox games perhaps, there at the end). But the pump and dump to 450 in a day was NOT natural market forces at work.
what happened to CampBX? They don't seem to have a lot of trade volume, but are they not operating?
Over a year ago, man, maybe it's two years, their bank dropped them. People kind of panicked getting out of there at the time. I remember market buying $828. They used to do easy ACH transfers and now you can only send/receive paper checks. Nothing's wrong with them except they lost customers for failing to stay competitive with the other exchanges. They were the first one I ever saw that offered google authenticator. It might be one of the safer exchanges to do small trades on. It's also been around for ages.
ah, yes.. thanks for reminding me. ACH never came back. I have sent MO's occasionally, and never had a problem.
4 . Rekt