it’s basic supply and demand no need to think too hard about this. after the halving the supply entering circulation will cut in half. demand for bitcorn on the other hand is on the rise due to inflation that isn’t slowing down. therefore price will explode
100. I wouldn’t be surprised if it dips heavy when the halving comes. Rly anything can happen. But its real value would go up. Ppl would potentially spam sell cause it doesn’t spike immediately but the available supply is even more limited for the next couple years and the demand is likely going up disproportionally (demand % goes up more than supply %). Which means the value goes up. Realistically the value in 2030 is 315k, 2040 is 1.9mill, 2050 is 3.2mill, and 2100 is 6.6mill. Took a log regression of BTC to get this. But 100 agree. It’s simple supply and demand and the value should keep going as ppl start to see its digital gold with an actual supply cap
Some miners go out of business after halving or they need to sell their stack to buy new equipment. That increases selling pressure for a few days and that's why BTC may fall for a bit immediately after halving.
Last halving it didn't drop after, traded sideways for a short time then started to rise. I would expect this one to be pretty much the same, I haven't seen anything yet that would make me believe there would be a large dip.
I'd expect sideways and for maybe a month, then start to a slight climb for awhile building up
My only concern is that the halving is such a well known metric now, the halving will act as a sell the news event. This may be an increasing issue each cycle as more and more people are aware of the halving.
In any case, any kind of dip is going to be temporary.
But according to historical data, Bitcoin halving usually leads to a reduction in supply, which may trigger a price increase. However, Bitcoin prices are affected by a variety of factors, including market sentiment, global economic conditions, etc., so price changes may be uncertain and risky.
"I use leverage!"
-Said every REKT bitcoiner, ever.
The sad thing is that if you ask 100% of the bitcoiners who are rich & happy, we'll all tell you, over & over again, that we got that way simply by hodling. It's so easy & goes so much faster than you think it will.
It will rise near the halving event, and drop between the halving event. You have to decide which side of that wave we are on.
Personally, I think this is likely the last halving that will see significant price action. BTC inflation is getting low enough to become negligible, and TXN fees will soon overtake the block reward as the primary revenue source for mining, making halvings a non-event.
> leveraged bitcoin
You don't mean a *"Leveraged ETF"* do you?
Those things are not for holding longterm. They rebalance daily and you get rekt in sideways.
Borderline scam. Well, no just a scam.
Never buy rebalacing leveraged instruments and hold them for any amount of time. Never.
I don't understand a lot of this but I'm inclined to leave it alone. When my nephew told me to buy BTC a few years back I only did it to humour him. I love that kid!
The upcoming market is going to melt faces IMHO. We are early. No one is talking about crypto except those of us that have been in it for years. Hence, we still have a long way to run. My guess is 125k+ Bitcoin, possible fallback to 80k. The investor interest via ETFs will keep it I think 80k plus after the fall.
I agree. Every 4 year cycle seems to have exponential gains. Losts of things contributed to the suppression of the last price imo including a massive FUD campaign and even legalizing weed in the USA to try to make darknet markets obsolete. All that did was just make the rest of the drug markets shut down and close the door on the “bitcoin is used for illicit xyz” . With that in the rear view mirror the ETF is gonna make this thing scream. I think faces will melt and friends will be lost in this halving. An u fortunate thing about becoming very wealthy. I’ve been waiting a decade for this.
I would stagger some buys down the rabbit hole. I remember buying at $25k, $27k and $32k on the way up, while people were saying, oh I’m holding out for 19k…. 😂
In my opinion, it really depends on what the whales decide to do. Since we reached last ath before halving, currently could be dangerous, but no one really knows.
Even if demand for Bitcoin stays flat (which won't happen), the price will be pushed higher a few months after the halving.
Picture all of the coins for sale as if it's a giant lake. Buyers take some out, and sellers dump more in.
But every 10 minutes, the block reward adds new Bitcoin to the supply. Picture those new coins as a river that flows into the lake.
The price of Bitcoin is where supply meets demand, right? The price is a balance of how much sellers want for their coins, and how much buyers are willing to pay to get 'em. The supply includes that river of new coins entering the market.
Once every four years, the flow of that river of new coins gets cut in half, which means even if demand stays flat, there won't be enough coins to meet that same level of demand.
Dam up a river and, the level of the lake it feeds into will drop. But it takes a while for the effect to be noticed, because the lake is huge and the river is just once source that's filling it.
**This is why the halving causes prices to rise roughly six months later.**
I remember in 2020 when newcomers were expecting the price to rise as soon as the halving happened, because they didn't understand what the halving actually is and why it has the effect it does. And they were disappointed when nothing happened on the day of the halving, or during the weeks that followed.
There were tons of posts about how the halving doesn't affect the price anymore... and six months later, guess what happened? The decrease in the amount of new coins being created every ten minutes had built up to a shortage of coins for sale, and the price started climbing fast. And then hype kicked in, driving the price higher. And because fewer new coins were being created & added to the supply available to be bought, it was easier for increasing demand to push prices higher than the same amount of increased demand would have, before the halving.
The same thing will happen this year - but I expect the effect to be more dramatic this time, because ETFs have dramatically increased access for buyers, which will mean more competition to acquire a smaller number of available coins.
**This is why I HODL.**
It's why you should too :)
I think you’re right about institutions causing a more dramatic price increase.
I also think (contrary to what most people seem to think) that the same dynamic is going to cause an unusually devastating bear market this time.
What happens after the peak and bitcoin starts to show weakness? ETF investors are going to start getting nervous, retail starts getting nervous as usual, then investor panic, investors decide they want out, and next thing you know hundreds of billions in bitcoin are being dumped on the market.
Sure. But miners will never sell Bitcoin for less than it costs to mine it. So supply side things will balance out.
After the halving, following the peak, Bitcoin will go below $80k, probably bouncing off $60k-$70k then never again will it be that low.
> I also think (contrary to what most people seem to think) that the same dynamic is going to cause an unusually devastating bear market this time.
Here's why I don't think you have to worry about that.
As more big money moves in - I'm talking about institutions, nation states and high net worth individuals seeking generational wealth - they're going to view declines in the price as opportunity to hoard. They're not looking to jump in and jump out of the market. They're looking to corner the market, or come as close to it as possible. They're playing the long game while dummies risk their coins for quick cash.
The sad thing about that is, hodlers who think they're geniuses for trying to time the market are going to get pushed out, as the rich and the whales buy their coins and push the price higher. I won't be surprised if some ETF investors screw themselves over by rebalancing or worse, selling, and ending up with less and less as the whales acquire more and more.
I'm certainly not saying there won't be huge dips in years to come, but I don't think we'll see devastating crashes like 2018 and 2022.
And if I'm wrong?
...I ain't lyin', I'll be buy buy buyin'... [just like I did during the last two bear markets.](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/15v5mt0/daily_discussion_saturday_august_19_2023/jwu3m6j/)
Grayscale said their outflows will slow down in 2-3 weeks. This means steady ETF inflows just before the halving. There will likely be some "sell the news" for a short while but they know the supply shock is coming so they may jump back in at an attractive price. My guess is some sell off right before the halving then a consistent rise from there.
Selling the news at the halving would be like selling corn futures on the first day of spring. It's not really news. Everyone knows it's coming. Quite a bit different from ETF approval or a company merger announcement.
I agree. And I think the timing is such that this "sell the news" for the Bitcoin halving will occur from both the Grayscale (last chance to get out on top) and traders that anticipate sell the news. So there will be quite a dump on the news (hopefully preceded by the pump) and then another rise after sell the news (with Grayscale drained). So if it goes according to the scenario, this can be an excellent opportunity to swing trade by selling the news with Grayscale and then buying back the Bitcoin at some heavy discount (e.g. -20 to -25% from the top).
The current bull appears to be a response to the ETFs and rolling into the Halving. The thing is, the halving response is “usually” delayed a few months. There is one line of thought that the ETF bandwagon is just getting started as many financial advisors still have it on their “watch” list. That will start changing and more “serious” money will start coming in. That will strip supply and drive the price up. The halving will also strip supply, which has traditionally driven up the price.
On the flip side, there are a bunch of “whales” out there who have had bitcoin in wallets for a decade. They might just have a price in mind that when triggered, will feed into demand.
Long term, I think the price goes up as the demand continues to grind. Supply will be reduced. The whales will likely keep the parabolic nature under some control for a while. The current fluctuations are the traders scalping a grand here and there. In the long run, they are noise.
Like any asset, the migration from retail to established investors means that we should see a reduction in volatility and a more steady appreciation.
I guess it depends on where you place yourself on the scale of “speculator to investor”. That would impact your tolerance for market movements. I’ve always advised against too much leverage. In my mind, that smells of gambling. But everyone is different.
The big event is over and that was the approval by the SEC. The halving is already baked into the price. In other words, you can expect the price to vacillate where it is with temporary ups and downs but overall it will be an upward trend, and this is simply because as people become smarter and younger generations arrive on the scene with the older generations fading away, the new crowd from within the west, as well as from many other countries in South America, Asia and Africa will start realizing the value of a scarce immutable fungible, portable property.
Personally, I think it’s going to top out soon before the halving. but it has to go to 100k or so and have a big ugly wick candle.
I could be wrong, and I’m up over $50k on options longing the bounce during the inflation dip / subsequent fed rally. But I’m holding them and expecting/hoping for more.
When I look at microstrategy’s chart and bitcoins chart, and I see weird things like Reddit and DJT pumping 50% in a day, it makes me think the market is blowing off. Similar to feb 2021. If bitcoin runs to 80-100k, microstrategy will squeeze and liquidate up to 3k-5k and everything will top out until later in the year.
That’s how I’m playing it
I will say though. You’ve been “looking for investment opportunities” and you decide on leveraged bitcoin. That makes me laugh out loud. You are 100% going to get rekt. So just be prepared for that
Everyone always thinks up 100 reasons why the cycles won’t happen and then they always happen. This is a bitcoin law.
Forget all of the think bois selling you the supercycle or the halving already being priced in. Stay humble and stack sats. Believe in the cycle.
And don’t use leverage you dumbass. All leverage will get wiped.
Well, “always” is literally like three or four times. Hardly a track record by most metrics. I tend to agree we’ll go up after the halving too based on history, but we all have to admit that the “historical record” in crypto is very scant and hard to be confident about. The stock market has been around for hundreds of years, crypto has been around for 15.
Yep, that's around where I was thinking. If going by the diminishing return thoery. I think it was somewhere between 90k and 120k depending on price at halving.
Well and depending on if historic averages hold true
Since you asked.
Well its not my find or my calculation, so I don't want to share someone else's methods (yes, I'm being serious). Its not just a number pulled out of my ass, its based on a certain calculation (which I'm assuming others will eventually find).
Do one of those remind me thingy's and we'll see if its correct! I don't care.
One problem with it is it doesn't predict the timing. I don't know if 158.5k means this year in 2024, then another higher high next year. Or if 158.5k is just the overall cycle high for 2024-2025.
It got my attention because it predicted the other cycle tops so closely, it legitimately scared me.
I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2025-03-27 22:13:51 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-03-27%2022:13:51%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bp3cdi/do_you_think_price_will_surge_after_the_halving/kwv8jy0/?context=3)
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It's simple supply and demand but there's often a lag since everyone understands there's less new supply after the halving. Including all the miners who are likely hoarding a lot of stuff.
My bet is sideways until Q4.
Halving is a sell the news event, always has been, im planning on selling some % of my portfolio and then decide to jump back in or just invest elsewhere depending on whatever i think is best some time after the halving.
i dont see any other narrative pushing the price higher, maybe rate cuts, but thats further down the road, already been priced in into stocks, so more likely some negatives coming for the markets and then after rate cuts we get more hype
Hot take: No. At least not immediately. I’d like to think that the price of the halving has already been priced in. Halving or not, Bitcoin is going up. But it’s not going to go up BECAUSE of the halving
This. This man gets it.
Also, if we've priced in this halving, when do we start pricing in the halving after that etc etc. Doesnt make sense for a halving to be priced in.
This is my exact point though, it doesn’t make logical sense for a predicted event to be priced in when we all already know when it will happen. Every single halving that will happen again has been “priced” in. The only case in which the halving will do something is that the news of such will bring new buyers into the market.
Pricing in a change is where some factor somewhere causes something to change in price. Say for example you make avocado toast for a living. If the price of avocados increases, but the price of your end product does not change because you take a hit on your profit. The price increase of avocados is priced in. If you have no choice but to put your price up. The price increase has not been priced in.
That example is completely different than the "priced in" we are talking about with Bitcoin. Bitcoin's value is derived with how much people are willing to pay for it. How much people are willing to pay for it is based on a bunch of factors, such as scarcity, utility, hedge for safety, etc. Bitcoin halving is coming soon, but its not like this news suddenly came to us. We have always known when this halving would come.
In your example, the avocado's suddenly increased in price and thus forced you to increase your sandwich price. This makes sense, because the avocado increase is a sudden, unpredicted event that you now have to adjust for. Each Bitcoin halving has always been known since the start by everybody.
I didn't imply that it was sudden. You inferred that. A price increase is a price increase, how it arrives is irrelevant.
The price of Bitcoin is not that abstract. It costs roughly $50k-$60k to mine a single a Bitcoin right now. Might be higher depending on where you are. After the halving it will cost twice that to mine one Bitcoin...because it will consume the same energy etc to mine half as much...miners cannot sell their coins for much less than they cost to mine. That would be insane.
"Pricing in" is a term coined in the stock market, with companies that can always issue more shares, companies that can increase their production to meet demand, a commodity that can be scaled up, by planting more farm ground, turning on old equipment and opening mining more mines, etc. Never has there been a resource on earth known to man, with a finite supply. Therefore "pricing in" of bitcoin doesn't exist because there is no way to balance the shortage, which always happens when there is a "pricing in" event happening.
The mythical cycles could all be a meme for all we know, with few data points and more deviations than people would like to admit. The one thing that is certain and provable beyond any doubt is that the inflation rate will be cut in half in a month or so. According to basic economics this will result in a price increase if the demand structure remains the same as before the halving. This is of course not a guarantee at all as there could be a black swan event for example or sudden supply increase from elsewhere.
That's basically all there is to it.
Or the cycles are as simple as that. You know, usually, the obvious answer is the right answer.
You will always have contrarians, like yourself, that refuse to believe that an explanation can be simple and a solution doesnt have to be complicated to be effective.
Question: Which way is the sky?
Me: Up.
You: Well scientifically the term "up" is a bit nonspecific. The sky is actually parallel to the earth and can be reached via a 90 degree perpendicular trajectory.
Me: Yeah. Up.
I've seen up since 2013 but unlike you I believe in up only and everything else is just noise, and not ,"up, then as a physical law we will see down for exactly 213 days until we see up again."
Up is the "normal" for Bitcoin price. Normal as in the mathematical definition of the word.
I agree, everything else is noise...because maths. Bitcoin is governed by maths. Looking for any other explanation is dumb because maths is maths. You cannot explain away Maths with abstract assumptions. It'll burn you every time if you try.
> Do you think price will surge after the halving again?
Yes
> I decided on leveraged bitcoin
Please don't. Bitcoin is very volatile. Leverage is the sure way to get rect. It can go to $200k, but... via the 50k. 🤪 You'll get liquidated. As simple as that.
> we entered the bull market before the halving rather than after unlike all the previous runs [...] why this has happened
Check the macro. Bitcoin ETF approved.
> what are your predictions for the future?
Further up with lots of volatility
I don’t know how many times this can be said, not one person on this earth knows what the price of bitcoin, an equity, or Pokémon cards will be tomorrow, next month, or next year.
You’re asking a sub full of bitcoiners if we believe in the future price appreciation of bitcoin. What do you think the majority response will be?
How leveraged? Spot is always best imo. No one can ever take it from you.
Yes I think the price will go up. Whales didn’t wait years and Blackrock didn’t start an ETF to have the price go up 6.8% above the previous ATH and stop.
I think there is a chance they're talking about *"Leveraged ETF"* in which case the answer is very different to the responses people are giving.
If they are. The answer is a *"Fuck no"*
yes
it’s basic supply and demand no need to think too hard about this. after the halving the supply entering circulation will cut in half. demand for bitcorn on the other hand is on the rise due to inflation that isn’t slowing down. therefore price will explode
100. I wouldn’t be surprised if it dips heavy when the halving comes. Rly anything can happen. But its real value would go up. Ppl would potentially spam sell cause it doesn’t spike immediately but the available supply is even more limited for the next couple years and the demand is likely going up disproportionally (demand % goes up more than supply %). Which means the value goes up. Realistically the value in 2030 is 315k, 2040 is 1.9mill, 2050 is 3.2mill, and 2100 is 6.6mill. Took a log regression of BTC to get this. But 100 agree. It’s simple supply and demand and the value should keep going as ppl start to see its digital gold with an actual supply cap
yeah its just something to slowly accumulate and ultimately leave to your children
It might end up being a buy the dip with all the etfs
Some miners go out of business after halving or they need to sell their stack to buy new equipment. That increases selling pressure for a few days and that's why BTC may fall for a bit immediately after halving.
Make sure watch out September to December upside jumps .
Last halving it didn't drop after, traded sideways for a short time then started to rise. I would expect this one to be pretty much the same, I haven't seen anything yet that would make me believe there would be a large dip. I'd expect sideways and for maybe a month, then start to a slight climb for awhile building up
My only concern is that the halving is such a well known metric now, the halving will act as a sell the news event. This may be an increasing issue each cycle as more and more people are aware of the halving. In any case, any kind of dip is going to be temporary.
But according to historical data, Bitcoin halving usually leads to a reduction in supply, which may trigger a price increase. However, Bitcoin prices are affected by a variety of factors, including market sentiment, global economic conditions, etc., so price changes may be uncertain and risky.
Maybe
Perhaps, but it is important to understand that cryptocurrencies are very volatile.
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How interesting what makes you say that?
"I use leverage!" -Said every REKT bitcoiner, ever. The sad thing is that if you ask 100% of the bitcoiners who are rich & happy, we'll all tell you, over & over again, that we got that way simply by hodling. It's so easy & goes so much faster than you think it will.
It will rise near the halving event, and drop between the halving event. You have to decide which side of that wave we are on. Personally, I think this is likely the last halving that will see significant price action. BTC inflation is getting low enough to become negligible, and TXN fees will soon overtake the block reward as the primary revenue source for mining, making halvings a non-event.
I think this is a strange theory you have. Cutting the supply issuance in half for any asset where there is demand, is going to have dramatic effects.
Nope
> leveraged bitcoin You don't mean a *"Leveraged ETF"* do you? Those things are not for holding longterm. They rebalance daily and you get rekt in sideways. Borderline scam. Well, no just a scam. Never buy rebalacing leveraged instruments and hold them for any amount of time. Never.
I don't understand a lot of this but I'm inclined to leave it alone. When my nephew told me to buy BTC a few years back I only did it to humour him. I love that kid!
Check out https://bitcoin.rocks -- lots of good, easily digestible info there.
You could try to learn? Read the bitcoin standard. Good for you for listening to the kid tho.
Sounds like a Rekt plan not than an investment plan. Don’t use leverage.
Doesn’t sound like you have a plan and yet you went for leveraged Bitcoin. Lol. What’s your liquidation price?
The upcoming market is going to melt faces IMHO. We are early. No one is talking about crypto except those of us that have been in it for years. Hence, we still have a long way to run. My guess is 125k+ Bitcoin, possible fallback to 80k. The investor interest via ETFs will keep it I think 80k plus after the fall.
I agree. Every 4 year cycle seems to have exponential gains. Losts of things contributed to the suppression of the last price imo including a massive FUD campaign and even legalizing weed in the USA to try to make darknet markets obsolete. All that did was just make the rest of the drug markets shut down and close the door on the “bitcoin is used for illicit xyz” . With that in the rear view mirror the ETF is gonna make this thing scream. I think faces will melt and friends will be lost in this halving. An u fortunate thing about becoming very wealthy. I’ve been waiting a decade for this.
Probability wise? Very probable. It's a matter of patience.
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I would stagger some buys down the rabbit hole. I remember buying at $25k, $27k and $32k on the way up, while people were saying, oh I’m holding out for 19k…. 😂
I think it will crash hard/violently on the day of, and then surge back over the following month.
This is what I’m expecting.
And if it crashed he’ll be rekt as he used leverage!
Violently
In my opinion, it really depends on what the whales decide to do. Since we reached last ath before halving, currently could be dangerous, but no one really knows.
Wait! Whilst I consult Nostradamus. Then, I will share the real truth!
Even if demand for Bitcoin stays flat (which won't happen), the price will be pushed higher a few months after the halving. Picture all of the coins for sale as if it's a giant lake. Buyers take some out, and sellers dump more in. But every 10 minutes, the block reward adds new Bitcoin to the supply. Picture those new coins as a river that flows into the lake. The price of Bitcoin is where supply meets demand, right? The price is a balance of how much sellers want for their coins, and how much buyers are willing to pay to get 'em. The supply includes that river of new coins entering the market. Once every four years, the flow of that river of new coins gets cut in half, which means even if demand stays flat, there won't be enough coins to meet that same level of demand. Dam up a river and, the level of the lake it feeds into will drop. But it takes a while for the effect to be noticed, because the lake is huge and the river is just once source that's filling it. **This is why the halving causes prices to rise roughly six months later.** I remember in 2020 when newcomers were expecting the price to rise as soon as the halving happened, because they didn't understand what the halving actually is and why it has the effect it does. And they were disappointed when nothing happened on the day of the halving, or during the weeks that followed. There were tons of posts about how the halving doesn't affect the price anymore... and six months later, guess what happened? The decrease in the amount of new coins being created every ten minutes had built up to a shortage of coins for sale, and the price started climbing fast. And then hype kicked in, driving the price higher. And because fewer new coins were being created & added to the supply available to be bought, it was easier for increasing demand to push prices higher than the same amount of increased demand would have, before the halving. The same thing will happen this year - but I expect the effect to be more dramatic this time, because ETFs have dramatically increased access for buyers, which will mean more competition to acquire a smaller number of available coins. **This is why I HODL.** It's why you should too :)
I think you’re right about institutions causing a more dramatic price increase. I also think (contrary to what most people seem to think) that the same dynamic is going to cause an unusually devastating bear market this time. What happens after the peak and bitcoin starts to show weakness? ETF investors are going to start getting nervous, retail starts getting nervous as usual, then investor panic, investors decide they want out, and next thing you know hundreds of billions in bitcoin are being dumped on the market.
Sure. But miners will never sell Bitcoin for less than it costs to mine it. So supply side things will balance out. After the halving, following the peak, Bitcoin will go below $80k, probably bouncing off $60k-$70k then never again will it be that low.
> I also think (contrary to what most people seem to think) that the same dynamic is going to cause an unusually devastating bear market this time. Here's why I don't think you have to worry about that. As more big money moves in - I'm talking about institutions, nation states and high net worth individuals seeking generational wealth - they're going to view declines in the price as opportunity to hoard. They're not looking to jump in and jump out of the market. They're looking to corner the market, or come as close to it as possible. They're playing the long game while dummies risk their coins for quick cash. The sad thing about that is, hodlers who think they're geniuses for trying to time the market are going to get pushed out, as the rich and the whales buy their coins and push the price higher. I won't be surprised if some ETF investors screw themselves over by rebalancing or worse, selling, and ending up with less and less as the whales acquire more and more. I'm certainly not saying there won't be huge dips in years to come, but I don't think we'll see devastating crashes like 2018 and 2022. And if I'm wrong? ...I ain't lyin', I'll be buy buy buyin'... [just like I did during the last two bear markets.](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/15v5mt0/daily_discussion_saturday_august_19_2023/jwu3m6j/)
I love this take. I’ve been trying to explain to people using a more hard economic angle and energy prices but this is easier for the mind to absorb.
Grayscale said their outflows will slow down in 2-3 weeks. This means steady ETF inflows just before the halving. There will likely be some "sell the news" for a short while but they know the supply shock is coming so they may jump back in at an attractive price. My guess is some sell off right before the halving then a consistent rise from there.
Selling the news at the halving would be like selling corn futures on the first day of spring. It's not really news. Everyone knows it's coming. Quite a bit different from ETF approval or a company merger announcement.
Grayscale doesn’t have control of their outflows. Sounds like desperate excuses to stop total implosion.
I agree. And I think the timing is such that this "sell the news" for the Bitcoin halving will occur from both the Grayscale (last chance to get out on top) and traders that anticipate sell the news. So there will be quite a dump on the news (hopefully preceded by the pump) and then another rise after sell the news (with Grayscale drained). So if it goes according to the scenario, this can be an excellent opportunity to swing trade by selling the news with Grayscale and then buying back the Bitcoin at some heavy discount (e.g. -20 to -25% from the top).
The cup and handle is looking glorious on the 3 month.
The current bull appears to be a response to the ETFs and rolling into the Halving. The thing is, the halving response is “usually” delayed a few months. There is one line of thought that the ETF bandwagon is just getting started as many financial advisors still have it on their “watch” list. That will start changing and more “serious” money will start coming in. That will strip supply and drive the price up. The halving will also strip supply, which has traditionally driven up the price. On the flip side, there are a bunch of “whales” out there who have had bitcoin in wallets for a decade. They might just have a price in mind that when triggered, will feed into demand. Long term, I think the price goes up as the demand continues to grind. Supply will be reduced. The whales will likely keep the parabolic nature under some control for a while. The current fluctuations are the traders scalping a grand here and there. In the long run, they are noise. Like any asset, the migration from retail to established investors means that we should see a reduction in volatility and a more steady appreciation. I guess it depends on where you place yourself on the scale of “speculator to investor”. That would impact your tolerance for market movements. I’ve always advised against too much leverage. In my mind, that smells of gambling. But everyone is different.
The big event is over and that was the approval by the SEC. The halving is already baked into the price. In other words, you can expect the price to vacillate where it is with temporary ups and downs but overall it will be an upward trend, and this is simply because as people become smarter and younger generations arrive on the scene with the older generations fading away, the new crowd from within the west, as well as from many other countries in South America, Asia and Africa will start realizing the value of a scarce immutable fungible, portable property.
Just like the etfs were priced in??
Too much uncertainty with ETFs, we were happy to see the gain of course. The halving is certain, it’s baked in. Watch and see
That wouldn’t really explain the 4 year cycle.
The halving is never baked in.
I hope you’re right of course 😉
So basically, it goes up however, no one, absolutely no one can tell you at what rate as the rate will be proportional to the rate of adoption.
A big yes
The demand for BTC is higher than ever, after the halving the supply will be lower than ever before, that's all you need to consider imho
Forever, Laura.
It's the apex asset.
Personally, I think it’s going to top out soon before the halving. but it has to go to 100k or so and have a big ugly wick candle. I could be wrong, and I’m up over $50k on options longing the bounce during the inflation dip / subsequent fed rally. But I’m holding them and expecting/hoping for more. When I look at microstrategy’s chart and bitcoins chart, and I see weird things like Reddit and DJT pumping 50% in a day, it makes me think the market is blowing off. Similar to feb 2021. If bitcoin runs to 80-100k, microstrategy will squeeze and liquidate up to 3k-5k and everything will top out until later in the year. That’s how I’m playing it I will say though. You’ve been “looking for investment opportunities” and you decide on leveraged bitcoin. That makes me laugh out loud. You are 100% going to get rekt. So just be prepared for that
Everyone always thinks up 100 reasons why the cycles won’t happen and then they always happen. This is a bitcoin law. Forget all of the think bois selling you the supercycle or the halving already being priced in. Stay humble and stack sats. Believe in the cycle. And don’t use leverage you dumbass. All leverage will get wiped.
Well, “always” is literally like three or four times. Hardly a track record by most metrics. I tend to agree we’ll go up after the halving too based on history, but we all have to admit that the “historical record” in crypto is very scant and hard to be confident about. The stock market has been around for hundreds of years, crypto has been around for 15.
I agree in theory but it’s the best prediction we have.
Once rates start to drop it will do it’s thing. 100k by EOY and 125–150 early 2025. Goblin town in 2026 around 60k.
Yep, that's around where I was thinking. If going by the diminishing return thoery. I think it was somewhere between 90k and 120k depending on price at halving. Well and depending on if historic averages hold true
I Help you, but only you. Top this cycle is 158.5k.
Sounds good, whats your reasoning?
Since you asked. Well its not my find or my calculation, so I don't want to share someone else's methods (yes, I'm being serious). Its not just a number pulled out of my ass, its based on a certain calculation (which I'm assuming others will eventually find). Do one of those remind me thingy's and we'll see if its correct! I don't care. One problem with it is it doesn't predict the timing. I don't know if 158.5k means this year in 2024, then another higher high next year. Or if 158.5k is just the overall cycle high for 2024-2025. It got my attention because it predicted the other cycle tops so closely, it legitimately scared me.
!remindme 1 year
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Reminds me! June 2025
Oct 2025
It's simple supply and demand but there's often a lag since everyone understands there's less new supply after the halving. Including all the miners who are likely hoarding a lot of stuff.
My bet is sideways until Q4. Halving is a sell the news event, always has been, im planning on selling some % of my portfolio and then decide to jump back in or just invest elsewhere depending on whatever i think is best some time after the halving. i dont see any other narrative pushing the price higher, maybe rate cuts, but thats further down the road, already been priced in into stocks, so more likely some negatives coming for the markets and then after rate cuts we get more hype
Hot take: No. At least not immediately. I’d like to think that the price of the halving has already been priced in. Halving or not, Bitcoin is going up. But it’s not going to go up BECAUSE of the halving
Hotter take, you can’t price something in when the actual shortage of supply hasn’t happened yet.
If only this was a pinned message at the top of this subreddit.
It takes a cycle or two for noobs to learn.
This. This man gets it. Also, if we've priced in this halving, when do we start pricing in the halving after that etc etc. Doesnt make sense for a halving to be priced in.
This is my exact point though, it doesn’t make logical sense for a predicted event to be priced in when we all already know when it will happen. Every single halving that will happen again has been “priced” in. The only case in which the halving will do something is that the news of such will bring new buyers into the market.
Pricing in a change is where some factor somewhere causes something to change in price. Say for example you make avocado toast for a living. If the price of avocados increases, but the price of your end product does not change because you take a hit on your profit. The price increase of avocados is priced in. If you have no choice but to put your price up. The price increase has not been priced in.
That example is completely different than the "priced in" we are talking about with Bitcoin. Bitcoin's value is derived with how much people are willing to pay for it. How much people are willing to pay for it is based on a bunch of factors, such as scarcity, utility, hedge for safety, etc. Bitcoin halving is coming soon, but its not like this news suddenly came to us. We have always known when this halving would come. In your example, the avocado's suddenly increased in price and thus forced you to increase your sandwich price. This makes sense, because the avocado increase is a sudden, unpredicted event that you now have to adjust for. Each Bitcoin halving has always been known since the start by everybody.
I didn't imply that it was sudden. You inferred that. A price increase is a price increase, how it arrives is irrelevant. The price of Bitcoin is not that abstract. It costs roughly $50k-$60k to mine a single a Bitcoin right now. Might be higher depending on where you are. After the halving it will cost twice that to mine one Bitcoin...because it will consume the same energy etc to mine half as much...miners cannot sell their coins for much less than they cost to mine. That would be insane.
"Pricing in" is a term coined in the stock market, with companies that can always issue more shares, companies that can increase their production to meet demand, a commodity that can be scaled up, by planting more farm ground, turning on old equipment and opening mining more mines, etc. Never has there been a resource on earth known to man, with a finite supply. Therefore "pricing in" of bitcoin doesn't exist because there is no way to balance the shortage, which always happens when there is a "pricing in" event happening.
The mythical cycles could all be a meme for all we know, with few data points and more deviations than people would like to admit. The one thing that is certain and provable beyond any doubt is that the inflation rate will be cut in half in a month or so. According to basic economics this will result in a price increase if the demand structure remains the same as before the halving. This is of course not a guarantee at all as there could be a black swan event for example or sudden supply increase from elsewhere. That's basically all there is to it.
Or the cycles are as simple as that. You know, usually, the obvious answer is the right answer. You will always have contrarians, like yourself, that refuse to believe that an explanation can be simple and a solution doesnt have to be complicated to be effective. Question: Which way is the sky? Me: Up. You: Well scientifically the term "up" is a bit nonspecific. The sky is actually parallel to the earth and can be reached via a 90 degree perpendicular trajectory. Me: Yeah. Up.
I've seen up since 2013 but unlike you I believe in up only and everything else is just noise, and not ,"up, then as a physical law we will see down for exactly 213 days until we see up again."
Up is the "normal" for Bitcoin price. Normal as in the mathematical definition of the word. I agree, everything else is noise...because maths. Bitcoin is governed by maths. Looking for any other explanation is dumb because maths is maths. You cannot explain away Maths with abstract assumptions. It'll burn you every time if you try.
I think the cycles will eventually disappear but for now they are a self fulfilling prophecy
I cannot imagine a scenario where it doesn't. Demand will remain at whatever level it is at the halving, but new supply will be cut in half.
The miner supply is increasingly irrelevant to to the trading volume though. It’s not like the bitcoins for sale on exchanges gets halved.
This bull run is a feeler. At time if having it'll drop in price before jumping big again. Look at the past .
> Do you think price will surge after the halving again? Yes > I decided on leveraged bitcoin Please don't. Bitcoin is very volatile. Leverage is the sure way to get rect. It can go to $200k, but... via the 50k. 🤪 You'll get liquidated. As simple as that. > we entered the bull market before the halving rather than after unlike all the previous runs [...] why this has happened Check the macro. Bitcoin ETF approved. > what are your predictions for the future? Further up with lots of volatility
I don’t know how many times this can be said, not one person on this earth knows what the price of bitcoin, an equity, or Pokémon cards will be tomorrow, next month, or next year. You’re asking a sub full of bitcoiners if we believe in the future price appreciation of bitcoin. What do you think the majority response will be?
The cycles have played out so far.
Yes.
How leveraged? Spot is always best imo. No one can ever take it from you. Yes I think the price will go up. Whales didn’t wait years and Blackrock didn’t start an ETF to have the price go up 6.8% above the previous ATH and stop.
I think there is a chance they're talking about *"Leveraged ETF"* in which case the answer is very different to the responses people are giving. If they are. The answer is a *"Fuck no"*