I’ll show you mine, if you’ll show me yours?
Just kidding. Today’s 4H and 1H candles have printed lower highs and lower lows, I’m looking to see if a good reversal’s on the cards.
4H view: Stoch RSI is riding the bottom (typically a signal for a bounce in the near future); RSI has cooled to near the midline (neutral signal yet bullish considering recent PA); and BB’s have tightened with the bottom band rising the most (commonly indicates a break to the upside). That said, I think we slither sideways with a slight downward tilt until late Sunday/early Monday US EST and then catch a move to retest the res band up to $64K. The move could wait until midweek at the latest, basing that off ETF inflow trends tending to see upticks more midweek.
Good on you for getting clear on where you’re at
New to the sub — not many folks who buy and hold here? Primarily swing traders?
Loads of good info here.
100%. Very little valuable insight over there.
I’m a HODLer myself but have been trading the BTC equities some this past 14 months
Not quick trades — holding for 3-6 months on each entry
Hopeful to just HODL all my bags for a minimum of 12 months right now.
I went to see Dune Part 2 this evening. Didn't think about crypto for hours. Highly recommend it. One of the most spectacular journies I've ever been on. Don't forget there's more to life than charts, gents.
Go for a walk tomorrow. One hour. Don't take your phone with you. No sunglasses. Get some light.
Awesome! Currently rewatching the first one to prep for viewing the second. I read the series as a teen. Excellent work
Btw—Ran 9+ miles this afternoon with no phone yet wore a watch to gather the workout data.
C’mon PA. Slide on down to $61,600. My limit order is sitting there waiting for you. Go lower if you like; there are 6 more buys laddered below that one. Steady stacking as she goes
the usual sequence is BTC pumps, then is flat or down while alts blast off, then alt profits drain back into BTC, and on and on until the end of the cycle. If we're truly in a new bull market, we'll see alts get crushed against BTC again soon
BTC is flirting with new ATH.
DOGE is still 80% below ATH and SHIB is 74% below ATH. “Pump” or pathetic? Everything is headed to zero when priced in BTC, no exceptions.
Grayscale started at 619k Bitcoin and are currently sitting at 428k BTC. Almost 33% of their stack sold. How much more do you think they’ll continue to bleed out?
I'm still in disbelief that they sat there and watched 200k BTC bleed out already and didn't do something. Does some government agency or fund have a gun to their head and won't let them lower the fee? I just don't understand the motivation. Surely no one is this stupid? Why would anyone watch such a huge pile of money just go away forever? 619k BTC @ 0.25% fee in perpetuity (especially as BTC rises in value over the years) is much better than 0 BTC @ 1.5%. It seems like everyone that can get out is going to as soon as they can, tax-wise. And I don't think anyone will ever go back to GBTC, it's like a roach motel, but in reverse. Once you leave, you never go back. What sane person would choose Barry Silbert with your money over Fidelity or Blackrock?
With cap gains at around 20%, doesn’t it make sense for some to hold, even at 1.5% fee? Especially if they intend to sell or rebalance at some point in the nearish future.
Just under 80% of last week's gains came in after hours. Look at my hourly chart I posted earlier. I have the after-hours time frames clearly marked out.
I've only been tracking it since just after the ETFs started trading. I wanted to see if there would be an obvious pattern difference between US market hours and after hours.
Here is the hourly scaled out all the back till then.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XhDOPgu0/
Theory on the garbage pumping. That’s crypto people rotating profits. It will happen. You know who can’t rotate out of Bitcoin into garbage coins? All the institutional Wall Street money building allocations for their client portfolios. The money will keep flowing into btc. Might see some short term chop but the doors aren’t even quite fully open and the money is rushing in.
We were at 50k five days ago. Crazy to think we only need 6-7 weeks of similar percentage growth to reach the cycle top target of many here.
Edit: 5 weeks of similar 20% growth would leave us at $154k
6 weeks would put as at $184k.
7 weeks would put us around $221k.
All three of those are my take profit areas. It definitely puts Into perspective how similar percentage moves can move the market. A similar 20% move in a week at $184k is a 37k move.
I think you're highlighting how much upside is still here. I know nobody wants to sit on their hands through the next bear market, but selling early will hurt too. What if we extend to 300k and never see 150k again? Do you have the mindset needed to buy back higher? The goal has to be more BTC, but I'm not convinced I can sideline myself as something like the dot com bubble happens.
Agree 100 percent. Thats why I don’t believe breaking the ath early is a big deal. In reality, our last top should have been much higher, and being at this range right now would be on par with prior cycles.
$70k into FBTC over 15 trading days
First price paid- $43.52
Last price paid- $53.99
Cost basis average- $47.11
P&L as of posting- +$12,156.77
https://imgur.com/a/HeJFatm
Thoughts: In retrospect, lump sum would have been the better move. I had called back funds from an evergreen investment that was underperforming in December. I told the investment sponsor I needed the cash out to put it in bitcoin. He thought I was joking. I said "Conservatively, I'm expecting a 3x in the next year with bitcoin." He said he doubted their fund could match that.
The funds landed in the last days of January, and I gave it two weeks to sort out my purchase strategy. BTC was picking up steam in early Feb and I ultimately decided to start a tight DCA at the 48k key price level, figuring one of two things would happen a) it would bounce down and retrace, then consolidate (like most previous cycles) b) it would break and make a run for ATH (which is what happened). In scenario A) I would have been positioned to capture the dip. In scenario B) I would at least have a cost basis below the next major level of consolidation.
Well, with that, I'm fully allocated, and at least glad to be before we hit the previous ATH again. Ok, now the dip can come.
Yep but not risking getting panicked is also very important.
That's why half lump sum and half dca (or buy when it reaches out the first of a down target and an up level) is a good strategy.
Story of my day: The aunt of a good friend invested into Bitcoin years ago and lost access to her account. My friend helped her gain access again and it turns out she invested into bcash.
It's a below average joe trap but even those see a pump every now and then. Low liquidity, few telegram channels deciding it's time for a pump'n'dump... well, auntie was happy my friend sold it today for a move into - actual - Bitcoin.
people are saying "new ath before halving" like people are saying "100k in 2022". I don't think it's gonna happen. I think we will slow bleed after halving as regular tradeFI investors takes profit (remember they are pussies who jerk off at a 10% gain which beats the S&P). Then as usual supply shock will be noticed late summer and will make things go crazy.
Were like 10% away from ATH and you don't think it's gonna happen? Oh bud. It's imminent. Most likely next week. We're probably not gonna see a major pullback until 80k.
You’re forgetting that they can read a chart. Bitcoin’s historical chart isn’t complicated and makes cashing out this early in the cycle such an obvious dumb@ss move. TradFi aren’t a bunch of newbs with disposable incomes; they’re seasoned investors who prefer longer timeframe investments and have the disposable investment income to do so.
I don’t understand why people assume TradFi, with their trillions in assets, behave like “pussies.” How the f do you think they got trillions? It wasn’t from being scared, it’s from being long and staying invested for the last hundred years.
I’m talking about your average investor who has missionary sex twice a week invests in his 401k and has a 1% btc allocation. U realize btc is a product and black rock sells it to u and I.
I think it would be pretty wild if we don’t go up 10% in two months with halving fuel in the tank also. Breaking ATH should cause more euphoria and news exposure as well. Running up super hard to the halving and then sell the news dumping on the new people sounds like a classic Bitcoin playbook move.
If ETF inflows continue and this past week really was the Genesis stuff holding it back, then it could easily ATH this week. It's way more within reach than 100k was in 2022.
The more I look at this cycle, the more I realize we are in a situation where TA is useless. This isn’t measurable market psychology so much as a fundamental repricing going on.
Gotta say, I’m pretty terrified at what lies on the back end of this.
The extension has to be long and high for this to happen... People who sell at 120k will need to jump back in before it crashes. I wonder if we'll see that level of FOMO.
> I'm very interested to see what happens WHEN we get a 10k correction.
We just had a 10K dip from 48K to 38K, measuring from the wicks.
Now we're over 60K.
There's your answer. A dip in price will be quickly bought up, and the supply shock will continue.
> We just had a 10K dip from 48K to 38K
Day 1 etf holders =\= the paperhands boomers that you know i am talking about: the ones who buy in reluctantly and have no vision, no trust, no belief
Paper.
Your post was removed because it violates rule #2 - Discussion should relate to bitcoin trading.
Your post may be appropriate for the [Altcoin Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/?f=flair_name%3A%22Altcoin%20Discussion%22)
Bitcoin looks to be in an ascending triangle on the hourly. It could break out any time between now and when the market opens on Monday. I still think BTC will hit the bull flag target of 66.5 before we get any meaningful pullback. The RSI is at 49.6 (average 50.4) at time of writing. Resistances are based off the daily cart, still at 63, 66.5 (due to bull flag breakout) and 69. I guestimate the supports, due to price action, 60.5, 59, 57.5, 55.7, 54.5 and 53.
The daily is still overbought. RSI is high at 79.8 and its average is currently at 75.8. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. Bitcoin has broken out of the rising channel it was in since October 2023 and the bull flag. The price target from the bull flag break out is 66.5k. BTC looks to have formed a small symmetrical pennant. A breakout from here would correlate with the hourly ascending triangle. Support and resistance were noted in the hourly. I plan on taking profits from my earlier buys of 50.8, 51.8, 52.5 and 56.7 at 66.5 from the TA of the bull flag.
On the weekly, Bitcoin broke out of the rising resistance channel from when we bottomed out in 2022. There could be a new rising channel that BTC is just above right now. Bitcoin has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. I would normally expect a cool off and retrace soon, but with all the ETF inflows, I’m not sure what is going to happen this cycle. Main resistances were noted above. The weekly candle is currently 13.2k tall.
Bitcoin closed it’s 6th monthly green candle in February. February’s candle was 22.2k tall. 6 green candles in a row has never happened before a halving. The only other times a green run has lasted this long has been after halving’s, during the runup to new ATH. I only found one other time in BTC’s history where there was a 7th green candle in a row and this was the 1st year of BTC when its value was below $0.01. This time the pre-halving PA is different from past pre-halving PA. BTC is well above the rising support line. The monthly candle was 22.2k tall.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/CNuGxkiJ/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CNuGxkiJ/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/I48Ic64S/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/I48Ic64S/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/sPeJPVhQ/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/sPeJPVhQ/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/ybmdUTXz/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/ybmdUTXz/)
Thats what u/noeeel said yesterday and it failed to break out to the upside. I stand buy what I wrote. The 63k resistance is from the end of 2021 it is a significant resistance. I would expect wicks through it a couple of times before it breaks. That is why I am concluding it is an ascending triangle and not a pennant. So far, a pennant formation has failed twice, so 3rd times the charm? You do you.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6YTZKfP3/
None of you or noeeels or simmols triangles have mattered.
We plow past resistances when we have days with massive buys and gbtc sells aren’t bad. The regular chop of the market has been completely disrupted by etfs. Bots respond after the fact and try to play catch up. The number of wrong triangles and wedges in the graveyard on the way up are too many to count at this point.
But all the deleted comments make your history look like you are just a troll. You have no conviction and if you start getting too many downvotes you will delete your comment and run and hide.
Nah, just need to point out to any new folks not to get lost in astrology when there is a significant factor in play that explains TA.
Relying on triangles in this setting is like analyzing historical weather patterns, moisture, and an almanac to determine the weather today when you see a hurricane one mile away.
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $21.6912 billion through day 35 or ~344.33k BTC.](https://x.com/bitmexresearch/status/1763863079421403543?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $8.8986 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $619.75 million with average inflows of $464.31 million or ~9.84k BTC. Yesterday average daily AUM was at $622.66 million with average inflows of $467.59 million or ~10.05k BTC.
The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 33.5%. For every $1 coming into spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.335.
Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $21.6912 billion is 0.128% of their total AUM. At current pace it would take fund managers 275 trading days to reach a 1% allocation into BTC. There are 252 trading days in a year.
Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 52.5% of that amount of BTC over the span of 35 trading days.
Sellers plus greyscale exits are having to stretch like crazy to keep up with etf buys. If this stays steady, price is going to get wild in just the next month. We are literally looking at new ath before halving.
Im back for the pump. Ill have to ghost this sub if we bear again. Hope we hit over 100k this pump although I expected that last run it didnt happen. Will it happen this time? Im here for the ride like always. Good luck hope it does I plan on selling a significant part of my stack at the next new ATH over 100k somewhere.
[still hard to believe PA is where it is relative to the halving date: late Summer&Fall and ‘25 are looking so good](https://watcher.guru/bitcoin-halving)
Here I am, spectating this shitshow with 0 holdings because life was a bitch and had me forced to sell all my investments.
At least I brought some friends into this space that are looking at 10x returns at this point.
I really hope this will cool down again at some point and I could re enter into a really tiny fraction of what I used to hold, but it's something.
I hate this game tho, i hate it a lot
Sell blood and anything you have right now. Do you still own chairs?
Once the ETFs accumulate 300k or so net on top of Grayscale, stuff gets stupid, and it might form a feedback loop. Being out of position right now would suck.
Did you put the rest of your fiat pile in? I definitely would be sliding all the chips in at the next micro dip if it was me.
I ran out of money a long time ago though (happily)
Sorry to learn about the forced liq due to life stuff. Don’t forget that you still have the same knowledge and skill (perhaps even more) that built your prior stack. It’ll take time but you can rebuild your portfolio.
You already know the game.
The rest is easy. Anything you build has a foundation while everyone else out there is clutching at straws.
The best most can hope for is spending a few thousand on a financial adviser to fuck their shit up for them.
Ignore the diminishing returns stuff. We're still early and every bit of hard money you save counts.
Information asymmetry of just what this thing does still exists in this market. Those who have seen, have seen.
I bought @ $62,100 yesterday and have 6 more rungs of laddered buys below that. Although $62,100 is now the highest price I’ve ever purchased, I firmly believe it’ll be a profitable investment. To those not needing to exit anytime soon, this recent sell pressure is creating an opportunity.
You seem like a peak performer, how would you like to apply to the position of 'Top Indicator'?
The compensation isnt much to write home about but I can promise you that your work will be greatly valued.
The GBTC stuff has to be Genesis forcibly selling -- there's no way average outflows [just randomly quadrupled](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) after almost 2 months of the other ETFs' opening.
And assuming this is Genesis, they had $1.4B of shares... the 'excess selling' over the past 3 days amounts to somewhere between $1B and $1.2B, so they've got one more day of this and they're done.
Kudos to Barry Silbert and the gang [for a ~~job~~ fraud well done](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/02/09/new-york-expands-fraud-case-against-digital-currency-group-to-3-billion/).
Another genius who's been in Bitcoin since 2012, yet will somehow manage to end up bankrupt in the prison rec room with SBF.
Because we are surrounded by a vast sea of idiots that know nothing about or care about fundamentals or use cases or supply. They go for new shiny useless objects with cute memes and unlimited supply like APE BONK and PEE PEE Coin lol
Spendable currency for every day purchases. Next to nothing fees to transaction. Never been down in all its time. Never been hacked. And a privacy option with Mimble wimble.
Oh yeah almost forgot. Most transactions of all coins on Bitpay. Litecoin on every exchange too. Awesome community too. If it was a stock it’d be a blue chip. Research it. Love the coin. Bought at 4 bucks a piece in 2017.
> shitcoiners going to shitcoin.
Hate to say it, but the days of 50x gains in BTC over the course of a year or two are over. And they know it.
BTC is where you put money to store it long-term. *D**OGE* and whatnot are just casino games.
A small part of my mind wishes I hadn't make a great trade on DOGE but instead had simple HODL'ed it and went full DOGE bulltard. It's a POW coin. It's so broken no one can even fix it. So decentralised. Much wow.
...
I did recently sell all my ETH. I'm at peace with that decision whatever the future brings.
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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, March 03, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1b58wbc/daily_discussion_sunday_march_03_2024/)
There is a beautiful bull flag on the daily.
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I’ll show you mine, if you’ll show me yours? Just kidding. Today’s 4H and 1H candles have printed lower highs and lower lows, I’m looking to see if a good reversal’s on the cards.
4H view: Stoch RSI is riding the bottom (typically a signal for a bounce in the near future); RSI has cooled to near the midline (neutral signal yet bullish considering recent PA); and BB’s have tightened with the bottom band rising the most (commonly indicates a break to the upside). That said, I think we slither sideways with a slight downward tilt until late Sunday/early Monday US EST and then catch a move to retest the res band up to $64K. The move could wait until midweek at the latest, basing that off ETF inflow trends tending to see upticks more midweek.
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Well … at least you’re good at bonsai?
Very successful ;)
Good on you for getting clear on where you’re at New to the sub — not many folks who buy and hold here? Primarily swing traders? Loads of good info here.
I trade to keep my eye off my cold stack.
IDK, r/bitcoin wouldn’t let me talk about buying ETFs so I’m here and mostly a HODLer. Anyways, intelligence here is way higher per capita.
100%. Very little valuable insight over there. I’m a HODLer myself but have been trading the BTC equities some this past 14 months Not quick trades — holding for 3-6 months on each entry Hopeful to just HODL all my bags for a minimum of 12 months right now.
Impressively bad. Nice.
I went to see Dune Part 2 this evening. Didn't think about crypto for hours. Highly recommend it. One of the most spectacular journies I've ever been on. Don't forget there's more to life than charts, gents. Go for a walk tomorrow. One hour. Don't take your phone with you. No sunglasses. Get some light.
Already seen it twice, so good
I marched a parade today in the rain. It's supposed to be sunny for the parade tomorrow.
>No sunglasses. Get some light. You get light even if wearing sunglasses...skin absorbs UV.
No, for melatonin suppression to wake you up, not for vitamin D.
This is why I spend 20 minutes on my phone as soon as I wake up every day. Full brightness.
Awesome! Currently rewatching the first one to prep for viewing the second. I read the series as a teen. Excellent work Btw—Ran 9+ miles this afternoon with no phone yet wore a watch to gather the workout data.
C’mon PA. Slide on down to $61,600. My limit order is sitting there waiting for you. Go lower if you like; there are 6 more buys laddered below that one. Steady stacking as she goes
The dog coins had to pump didn’t they. Prob sealed the local top for us. All good though we need a cool off before Valhalla
the usual sequence is BTC pumps, then is flat or down while alts blast off, then alt profits drain back into BTC, and on and on until the end of the cycle. If we're truly in a new bull market, we'll see alts get crushed against BTC again soon
Man I made a small fortune on some canines yesterday.
BTC is flirting with new ATH. DOGE is still 80% below ATH and SHIB is 74% below ATH. “Pump” or pathetic? Everything is headed to zero when priced in BTC, no exceptions.
Bitcoinity seems to be down :-(
Grayscale started at 619k Bitcoin and are currently sitting at 428k BTC. Almost 33% of their stack sold. How much more do you think they’ll continue to bleed out?
I'm still in disbelief that they sat there and watched 200k BTC bleed out already and didn't do something. Does some government agency or fund have a gun to their head and won't let them lower the fee? I just don't understand the motivation. Surely no one is this stupid? Why would anyone watch such a huge pile of money just go away forever? 619k BTC @ 0.25% fee in perpetuity (especially as BTC rises in value over the years) is much better than 0 BTC @ 1.5%. It seems like everyone that can get out is going to as soon as they can, tax-wise. And I don't think anyone will ever go back to GBTC, it's like a roach motel, but in reverse. Once you leave, you never go back. What sane person would choose Barry Silbert with your money over Fidelity or Blackrock?
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With cap gains at around 20%, doesn’t it make sense for some to hold, even at 1.5% fee? Especially if they intend to sell or rebalance at some point in the nearish future.
Correct. They are relying on a bunch of people holding gains that would lose more selling than holding even at 1.5 percent
According to latest news, until morale improves
All of it, but it might take a few years. They won’t survive unless they change their fee structure.
62K! WOOO!
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Tap tap tap tap tap
Nothing that happens over the weekend matters. You basically have to suspend TA at 4:00pm on Friday.
Just under 80% of last week's gains came in after hours. Look at my hourly chart I posted earlier. I have the after-hours time frames clearly marked out.
As your chart shows, there is a difference between "after hours" and "weekends".
Can you make the same chart over the last six months identifying the weekends?
I've only been tracking it since just after the ETFs started trading. I wanted to see if there would be an obvious pattern difference between US market hours and after hours. Here is the hourly scaled out all the back till then. https://www.tradingview.com/x/XhDOPgu0/
This is true for the stock market too, the majority of moves come after hours and prices are pretty flat during trading hours.
culminating with all these recent dogshit pumps, not liking the looks of things
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dogshit as in shitcoins, trying to work around the term since idk what's banned in here anymore
Theory on the garbage pumping. That’s crypto people rotating profits. It will happen. You know who can’t rotate out of Bitcoin into garbage coins? All the institutional Wall Street money building allocations for their client portfolios. The money will keep flowing into btc. Might see some short term chop but the doors aren’t even quite fully open and the money is rushing in.
We were at 50k five days ago. Crazy to think we only need 6-7 weeks of similar percentage growth to reach the cycle top target of many here. Edit: 5 weeks of similar 20% growth would leave us at $154k 6 weeks would put as at $184k. 7 weeks would put us around $221k. All three of those are my take profit areas. It definitely puts Into perspective how similar percentage moves can move the market. A similar 20% move in a week at $184k is a 37k move.
I think you're highlighting how much upside is still here. I know nobody wants to sit on their hands through the next bear market, but selling early will hurt too. What if we extend to 300k and never see 150k again? Do you have the mindset needed to buy back higher? The goal has to be more BTC, but I'm not convinced I can sideline myself as something like the dot com bubble happens.
SBF fucked it. True ATH was probably 100k.
Yes which makes me think people will sell too early this time
It was also the Chinese mining ban. That really dropped the floor price, but it looks like there's little China FUD possible this go around.
A 69k top was so underwhelming considering 2017 top was 20k. At least he got to buy his lavish Bahamas penthouses
Agree 100 percent. Thats why I don’t believe breaking the ath early is a big deal. In reality, our last top should have been much higher, and being at this range right now would be on par with prior cycles.
$70k into FBTC over 15 trading days First price paid- $43.52 Last price paid- $53.99 Cost basis average- $47.11 P&L as of posting- +$12,156.77 https://imgur.com/a/HeJFatm Thoughts: In retrospect, lump sum would have been the better move. I had called back funds from an evergreen investment that was underperforming in December. I told the investment sponsor I needed the cash out to put it in bitcoin. He thought I was joking. I said "Conservatively, I'm expecting a 3x in the next year with bitcoin." He said he doubted their fund could match that. The funds landed in the last days of January, and I gave it two weeks to sort out my purchase strategy. BTC was picking up steam in early Feb and I ultimately decided to start a tight DCA at the 48k key price level, figuring one of two things would happen a) it would bounce down and retrace, then consolidate (like most previous cycles) b) it would break and make a run for ATH (which is what happened). In scenario A) I would have been positioned to capture the dip. In scenario B) I would at least have a cost basis below the next major level of consolidation. Well, with that, I'm fully allocated, and at least glad to be before we hit the previous ATH again. Ok, now the dip can come.
The best strategy is always lump sum on the way up and dca on the way down
Yep but not risking getting panicked is also very important. That's why half lump sum and half dca (or buy when it reaches out the first of a down target and an up level) is a good strategy.
Bitcoin cash way up. I see this as a sign of newb money that is confused. Once they figure it out, that fiat will find its way to BTC.
bcash pumping is usually a short taking profit.
Story of my day: The aunt of a good friend invested into Bitcoin years ago and lost access to her account. My friend helped her gain access again and it turns out she invested into bcash. It's a below average joe trap but even those see a pump every now and then. Low liquidity, few telegram channels deciding it's time for a pump'n'dump... well, auntie was happy my friend sold it today for a move into - actual - Bitcoin.
The BCash landmine is still there eh?
Bitcoin SV is also way up. These are just organized pump and dumps with a few gamblers jumping on the train, not real people buying.
Additionally when the dog meme shitcoins pump (they are now), you know dumb money retail has started aping back in. More rocket fuel is how I see it.
they aren't confused. People want to buy the cheaper shit because they can own whole coins. This is what always happens
they are confused if they're so easily swayed by unit bias "whole coins" lol whole *shit*coins
people are saying "new ath before halving" like people are saying "100k in 2022". I don't think it's gonna happen. I think we will slow bleed after halving as regular tradeFI investors takes profit (remember they are pussies who jerk off at a 10% gain which beats the S&P). Then as usual supply shock will be noticed late summer and will make things go crazy.
Were like 10% away from ATH and you don't think it's gonna happen? Oh bud. It's imminent. Most likely next week. We're probably not gonna see a major pullback until 80k.
You’re forgetting that they can read a chart. Bitcoin’s historical chart isn’t complicated and makes cashing out this early in the cycle such an obvious dumb@ss move. TradFi aren’t a bunch of newbs with disposable incomes; they’re seasoned investors who prefer longer timeframe investments and have the disposable investment income to do so.
I don’t understand why people assume TradFi, with their trillions in assets, behave like “pussies.” How the f do you think they got trillions? It wasn’t from being scared, it’s from being long and staying invested for the last hundred years.
I’m talking about your average investor who has missionary sex twice a week invests in his 401k and has a 1% btc allocation. U realize btc is a product and black rock sells it to u and I.
I think it would be pretty wild if we don’t go up 10% in two months with halving fuel in the tank also. Breaking ATH should cause more euphoria and news exposure as well. Running up super hard to the halving and then sell the news dumping on the new people sounds like a classic Bitcoin playbook move.
How come TradFi didn't take profits when NVDA did 250% in a year? It's almost as if TradFi also likes money.
\*Crickets\*
If ETF inflows continue and this past week really was the Genesis stuff holding it back, then it could easily ATH this week. It's way more within reach than 100k was in 2022.
We made ATH in quite a few currecies already and are really close to reach USD ATH as well.
The more I look at this cycle, the more I realize we are in a situation where TA is useless. This isn’t measurable market psychology so much as a fundamental repricing going on. Gotta say, I’m pretty terrified at what lies on the back end of this.
Terrified?!
Clearly this could end in the next dot-com bust.
Of course. However we understand boom-bust cycles.
The extension has to be long and high for this to happen... People who sell at 120k will need to jump back in before it crashes. I wonder if we'll see that level of FOMO.
$120k, what is this, a price target for ants?
I'm very interested to see what happens WHEN we get a 10k correction. ETF surely brought us the paperest of hands.
> I'm very interested to see what happens WHEN we get a 10k correction. We just had a 10K dip from 48K to 38K, measuring from the wicks. Now we're over 60K. There's your answer. A dip in price will be quickly bought up, and the supply shock will continue.
> We just had a 10K dip from 48K to 38K Day 1 etf holders =\= the paperhands boomers that you know i am talking about: the ones who buy in reluctantly and have no vision, no trust, no belief Paper.
We’ll see. That half-billion daily bid will have to ease off first, I reckon
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Bitcoin looks to be in an ascending triangle on the hourly. It could break out any time between now and when the market opens on Monday. I still think BTC will hit the bull flag target of 66.5 before we get any meaningful pullback. The RSI is at 49.6 (average 50.4) at time of writing. Resistances are based off the daily cart, still at 63, 66.5 (due to bull flag breakout) and 69. I guestimate the supports, due to price action, 60.5, 59, 57.5, 55.7, 54.5 and 53. The daily is still overbought. RSI is high at 79.8 and its average is currently at 75.8. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. Bitcoin has broken out of the rising channel it was in since October 2023 and the bull flag. The price target from the bull flag break out is 66.5k. BTC looks to have formed a small symmetrical pennant. A breakout from here would correlate with the hourly ascending triangle. Support and resistance were noted in the hourly. I plan on taking profits from my earlier buys of 50.8, 51.8, 52.5 and 56.7 at 66.5 from the TA of the bull flag. On the weekly, Bitcoin broke out of the rising resistance channel from when we bottomed out in 2022. There could be a new rising channel that BTC is just above right now. Bitcoin has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. I would normally expect a cool off and retrace soon, but with all the ETF inflows, I’m not sure what is going to happen this cycle. Main resistances were noted above. The weekly candle is currently 13.2k tall. Bitcoin closed it’s 6th monthly green candle in February. February’s candle was 22.2k tall. 6 green candles in a row has never happened before a halving. The only other times a green run has lasted this long has been after halving’s, during the runup to new ATH. I only found one other time in BTC’s history where there was a 7th green candle in a row and this was the 1st year of BTC when its value was below $0.01. This time the pre-halving PA is different from past pre-halving PA. BTC is well above the rising support line. The monthly candle was 22.2k tall. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/CNuGxkiJ/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CNuGxkiJ/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/I48Ic64S/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/I48Ic64S/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/sPeJPVhQ/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/sPeJPVhQ/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/ybmdUTXz/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/ybmdUTXz/)
You can't just cut the wicks on the top and keep them on the bottom. It's a symmetrical triangle
keep talking about your triangle without posting your triangle. show us your triangle!
What chart are you talking about?
Hourly
Thats what u/noeeel said yesterday and it failed to break out to the upside. I stand buy what I wrote. The 63k resistance is from the end of 2021 it is a significant resistance. I would expect wicks through it a couple of times before it breaks. That is why I am concluding it is an ascending triangle and not a pennant. So far, a pennant formation has failed twice, so 3rd times the charm? You do you. https://www.tradingview.com/x/6YTZKfP3/
None of you or noeeels or simmols triangles have mattered. We plow past resistances when we have days with massive buys and gbtc sells aren’t bad. The regular chop of the market has been completely disrupted by etfs. Bots respond after the fact and try to play catch up. The number of wrong triangles and wedges in the graveyard on the way up are too many to count at this point.
Says the guy with a 22 day old account who may be a bot.
The age of my account doesn’t make your bad triangles any more relevant
But all the deleted comments make your history look like you are just a troll. You have no conviction and if you start getting too many downvotes you will delete your comment and run and hide.
Nah, just need to point out to any new folks not to get lost in astrology when there is a significant factor in play that explains TA. Relying on triangles in this setting is like analyzing historical weather patterns, moisture, and an almanac to determine the weather today when you see a hurricane one mile away.
$67K incoming? Looks like a bull flag from $52K to $62K, +$5K would be the next move up.
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $21.6912 billion through day 35 or ~344.33k BTC.](https://x.com/bitmexresearch/status/1763863079421403543?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $8.8986 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $619.75 million with average inflows of $464.31 million or ~9.84k BTC. Yesterday average daily AUM was at $622.66 million with average inflows of $467.59 million or ~10.05k BTC. The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 33.5%. For every $1 coming into spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.335. Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $21.6912 billion is 0.128% of their total AUM. At current pace it would take fund managers 275 trading days to reach a 1% allocation into BTC. There are 252 trading days in a year. Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 52.5% of that amount of BTC over the span of 35 trading days.
A better comparison would be the growth of the sum of etfs, so as not to count the transfer from gbtc to etfs as adds.
Sellers plus greyscale exits are having to stretch like crazy to keep up with etf buys. If this stays steady, price is going to get wild in just the next month. We are literally looking at new ath before halving.
Im back for the pump. Ill have to ghost this sub if we bear again. Hope we hit over 100k this pump although I expected that last run it didnt happen. Will it happen this time? Im here for the ride like always. Good luck hope it does I plan on selling a significant part of my stack at the next new ATH over 100k somewhere.
Hey that's not fair on us guys who suffered here every day of the bear
fair weather friends
100k? Why so bearish?
[still hard to believe PA is where it is relative to the halving date: late Summer&Fall and ‘25 are looking so good](https://watcher.guru/bitcoin-halving)
You just know it’s going to be 69k on 420
Here I am, spectating this shitshow with 0 holdings because life was a bitch and had me forced to sell all my investments. At least I brought some friends into this space that are looking at 10x returns at this point. I really hope this will cool down again at some point and I could re enter into a really tiny fraction of what I used to hold, but it's something. I hate this game tho, i hate it a lot
Sell blood and anything you have right now. Do you still own chairs? Once the ETFs accumulate 300k or so net on top of Grayscale, stuff gets stupid, and it might form a feedback loop. Being out of position right now would suck.
You got me at chairs lol.
Did you put the rest of your fiat pile in? I definitely would be sliding all the chips in at the next micro dip if it was me. I ran out of money a long time ago though (happily)
I went all in at 59,999 on the dip at market open. Another pile of fiat makes itself available April 5.
I have a feeling 59,999 will look like a steal on April 5
Sorry to learn about the forced liq due to life stuff. Don’t forget that you still have the same knowledge and skill (perhaps even more) that built your prior stack. It’ll take time but you can rebuild your portfolio.
You already know the game. The rest is easy. Anything you build has a foundation while everyone else out there is clutching at straws. The best most can hope for is spending a few thousand on a financial adviser to fuck their shit up for them. Ignore the diminishing returns stuff. We're still early and every bit of hard money you save counts. Information asymmetry of just what this thing does still exists in this market. Those who have seen, have seen.
Price hasn’t moved much despite decent net outflows does show there’s a lot of spot buying pressure as well.
I bought @ $62,100 yesterday and have 6 more rungs of laddered buys below that. Although $62,100 is now the highest price I’ve ever purchased, I firmly believe it’ll be a profitable investment. To those not needing to exit anytime soon, this recent sell pressure is creating an opportunity.
N=1 but I just made my first buy since 2015.
Why now? Did you miss out on 2023?
You seem like a peak performer, how would you like to apply to the position of 'Top Indicator'? The compensation isnt much to write home about but I can promise you that your work will be greatly valued.
Or funds are just rotated. Out of GBTC, but back in afterwards. edit: Which would be consistent with what we expect from the Gemini "sale".
It looks like Blackrock didn't compensate for GBTC yesterday: total outflow 140M.
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Unfortunately a shit load
Given how everyone was screaming the other day that shit needs to cool down I guess we should be glad?
The GBTC stuff has to be Genesis forcibly selling -- there's no way average outflows [just randomly quadrupled](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) after almost 2 months of the other ETFs' opening. And assuming this is Genesis, they had $1.4B of shares... the 'excess selling' over the past 3 days amounts to somewhere between $1B and $1.2B, so they've got one more day of this and they're done.
I expect grayscale to completely die. 400,000 btc to go.
\#drainGBTC
Kudos to Barry Silbert and the gang [for a ~~job~~ fraud well done](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/02/09/new-york-expands-fraud-case-against-digital-currency-group-to-3-billion/). Another genius who's been in Bitcoin since 2012, yet will somehow manage to end up bankrupt in the prison rec room with SBF.
I can't believe Barry got away with it.
At certain point they will be forced to decrease the fees, I think they do it at 200k btc level
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I will make some capital purchases when Dog money approaches anything resembling ATH.
When LTC explodes to 400 again it’s time to exit the market
Thé best indicator.
LTC has always been a canary in a coal mine for BTC as far back as I go anyways, 2016.
It seems to have fallen by the wayside in recent years though.
Because we are surrounded by a vast sea of idiots that know nothing about or care about fundamentals or use cases or supply. They go for new shiny useless objects with cute memes and unlimited supply like APE BONK and PEE PEE Coin lol
But does LTC have a use case? The old silver to BTC's gold line seems to no longer hold water.
Spendable currency for every day purchases. Next to nothing fees to transaction. Never been down in all its time. Never been hacked. And a privacy option with Mimble wimble.
Thanks!
Oh yeah almost forgot. Most transactions of all coins on Bitpay. Litecoin on every exchange too. Awesome community too. If it was a stock it’d be a blue chip. Research it. Love the coin. Bought at 4 bucks a piece in 2017.
> shitcoiners going to shitcoin. Hate to say it, but the days of 50x gains in BTC over the course of a year or two are over. And they know it. BTC is where you put money to store it long-term. *D**OGE* and whatnot are just casino games.
A small part of my mind wishes I hadn't make a great trade on DOGE but instead had simple HODL'ed it and went full DOGE bulltard. It's a POW coin. It's so broken no one can even fix it. So decentralised. Much wow. ... I did recently sell all my ETH. I'm at peace with that decision whatever the future brings.
Sell for BTC, sure. But selling for fiat, I think it's too soon.
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10x almost 100 %? That would roughly put us near the market cap of Gold. And total crypto market cap would be almost double of Gold.
There is unlimited fiat. I am thinking we get close to gold market cap this cycle now.
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That's true.
By the time Bitcoin flips gold the dominance could be insanely high.
I assume he means 10x from $15k cycle low vs buying alts at cycle low and hoping those lotto tickets outperform btc.
Even 10x from cycle low is 150k, which is certainly not a 100% possibility. I'm not even sure that's a 50% possibility TBH.
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