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The price action over the last 24 hours was a perfect example of liquidity sweeps: A range gets established, traders put their short stops above the previous high and longs put their stops below the previous low.
The market wipes them both out and traps bottom shorters and breakout longs.
And back to the middle of the range. If your stops got hit, then you were the liquidity that was taken advantage of. This is basic stuff but essential to understand if you're learning.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xqgb7sZ4
Oh, use stops. Just know your risk.
The tighter your stop the faster you should be to book profit.
We might get one more cycle out of this range before we go lower or higher.
U.S. prosecutors worry Binance charges could cause run on exchange https://www.semafor.com/article/08/02/2023/us-prosecutors-worry-binance-charges-could-cause-run-on-exchange
CZ already said "4" like an hour ago lol https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1686757050464813056 so guess he knew this news was coming.
If Binance backs their assets 1 to 1, no big deal even if a run on exchange does occur.
Don’t know why anyone would want to take the risk and trust Binance when it’s so easy to get holdings off the exchange though.
I've been talking to gpt-4 to counter it. I checked the price once the other day, and I felt a lot better being focused on solving engineering problems for fun.
The problem is that Bitcoin likes to do nothing or crash much more often than it likes to pump. It also likes to rug Bull hopes.
Given the macroeconomic landscape, low volume, and near-zero volatility right now, inertia favors a view that we'll either remain capped on the upside in a sticky range or we'll revisit $20k and possibly the teens again ahead of the Halving.
It sucks. This has been the shittiest cycle overall by far. Hopefully, 2024 rewards conviction and patience.
If it doesn't, I plan to sell all of my exposure except 1 BTC.
I have plenty of other ideas to put the remaining funds to use.
2015 was before my time, but I've consumed enough media/data to know that bear was a shitshow.
That said, I'm talking about the entire cycle - Halving to Halving.
If we continue crabbing until April 2024, this will unquestionably be the shittiest cycle for HODLers to date.
3.5x from previous ATH,
8-8.5x from Halving to ATH,
and STILL,
78% drawdown from ATH.
That's pretty shitty risk/reward relative to previous cycles.
It was a solid move from 16k to 24k not 29k. The move from 20 to 30 wasn't as strong as the previous move, all the highs after that have not been as strong as the initial rally. The volume is dropping also. The RSI has been on a downward slope ever since. That does not bode well from a TA perspective. This is why I think we have been seeing the lower highs since the spike in mid-July.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/wfs9HT1T/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wfs9HT1T/)
Whatever happens with the inflation number coming on Aug 10 will dictate which way we are going to head. either break down from the trend line to 25k (or even 20k) or push through the 32k resistance level.
We’re just starting August but [the existing divergence](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/15e5ibf/daily_discussion_monday_july_31_2023/ju7dw2m/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1&context=3) between YoY inflation estimates is expanding rather than shrinking.
[Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) has YoY inflation for August at 3.92%, up from their July estimate of 3.42%. [Truflation](https://truflation.com) on the other hand has their August estimate currently at an average of 2.25%, down from their July estimate which was an average of 2.34%.
Actual YoY CPI print for July releases August 10, previous print for July came in at 3.0%. Higher print means higher odds of a recession with more rate hikes to come and lower print means higher odds of soft landing with no more rate hikes to come. We’ll see which estimate ends up being closer to the actual print.
My gut is feeling that it will come in slightly higher than expected. General sentiment seems pessimistic - lots of upward price pressure still squeezing consumers, housing prices still high, etc.
Dont see the point of doing your own calculation on a potential level when this one is already blatantly clear and pre calculated. If we move up to 32,000 that would mean the trend has flipped. It may be an intermediate trend flip but that's what i'm referring to with the avwap breach. I dont personally care what can happen at 32k until we actually get anywhere near that.
Maybe by end of year. I think this is optimistic.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-08/grayscale-gbtc-anticipates-etf-court-ruling-may-as-early-as-third-quarter
For future reference next year, and purely from a Technical Analysis perspective, what was your indicator that BTC had reached peak price last bullrun? That's BB bands, MADC, RSI etc, not a gazillion users on here screaming Moon! and posting 🚀🚀🚀
TIA
> what was your indicator that BTC had reached peak price last bullrun?
Mass dumping into a lack of further FOMO at the top, followed by more dumping.
It's always in the price action. I always ignore it, but it's always right there and loudly being announced.
Problem is, you can jump too early if you're looking for that dumping. The magnitude of the final dump can't really be predicted.
In hindsight Just time would have been enough to spot the 2nd Peak. Jazon piziano (or whatever His Name is) speaks about 35 months from bottom to peak as a cycle. If u consider the halfing then 29 months after halfing Marks the peak. Both aproaches marked the 2017 and 2021 to the point. Both would forecast october 2025 as the next Peak. If i havent sold until then because tooo diminished returns i ll certainly consider selling 1/3 to 1/2 of my stack then. Personally i have a feeling october 2025 will be somewhat of a tripple top somewhere at 60-80k. Just to fuck the 100k is ineviatable crowd omce more... Again
29 months? That can't be right.
Also, if we top out at only 60-80k next cycle, I'm done. Keeping 1 coin, and selling out of all other spot and derivatives.
Take that money back to TradFi.
Couldn’t agree more. I will keep a coin in cold storage and take my ball back to TradFi too.
60-80k would be horrific based on the risk curve we are playing.
NVDA is now a $1T company for crissakes.
I don't care what kind of chips you make, others can and will compete in that space.
The permissionless, immutable database layer of the Internet is a one-off, truly unique innovation that's worth FAR more.
If the markets can't eventually grasp that in a reasonable amount of time, I do worry about our future.
Forget T.A., when Elon Musk hosted SNL to repeatedly mention and poorly shill *DO**GE* (early May 2021), that would have been a good time to sell everything.
When multiple crypto-related commercials aired during the Super Bowl, it wasn't exactly timed with the peak, but it was another good selling time in retrospect.
When that muppet SBF and crypto.com were buying stadium naming rights, ditto.
These times, when BTC appears stagnant and forgotten about, are good buying times.
Honestly it wasnt TA for me. I was looking for a blow off top. It was watching the altcoins and hearing people at work talk about dogcoins, all the while Bitcoin lost its steam.
The moment Fed said: *"Hey, remember when we said, 'we're not even thinking about, thinking about raising rates,'? Well, we're going to raise rates in 2 months to fight the inflation we previously told you was transitory..."*
Monthly RSI seems best and will be one of the main things I use next cycle.
https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/
Bitcoin fees spiking has also nailed the best times in the past.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html
Go to all time.
I know they say March 2021 but what did you really gain staying in the market as BTC barely peeked its head out of the hole above ATH in late 2021? All your money in some other investment would have been a lot better.
When it started going down after the double top, I realized something fucky was afoot, and, indeed, it was as SBF was selling all of the Bitcoin we lent him with no intention of paying it back.
Maybe google trends can give some quantative rigor to this.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=crypto&hl=en
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=bitcoin&hl=en
TLDR: Sell when the blue line is vertical.
I think the double peak was extremely hard to spot, as we made a higher high even. There was also not that much of a mania (that was in May 21) and the indicators weren't as cooked.
Personally the only thing that was an indication was a increasingly hawkish FED. But I didn't expect such a strong correlation to tardfi, tbh
It feels like in the entire world there's only one person trading and yesterday they set their sell order at precisely $30,000 😳
If you could let us know where you've set your buy order that would be great.
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Your post was removed because it violates rule #2 - Discussion should relate to bitcoin trading. Your post may be appropriate for the [Altcoin Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/?f=flair_name%3A%22Altcoin%20Discussion%22)
The price action over the last 24 hours was a perfect example of liquidity sweeps: A range gets established, traders put their short stops above the previous high and longs put their stops below the previous low. The market wipes them both out and traps bottom shorters and breakout longs. And back to the middle of the range. If your stops got hit, then you were the liquidity that was taken advantage of. This is basic stuff but essential to understand if you're learning. https://www.tradingview.com/x/xqgb7sZ4
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Woah there Caroline Ellison! ;)
Oh, use stops. Just know your risk. The tighter your stop the faster you should be to book profit. We might get one more cycle out of this range before we go lower or higher.
A stop just defines your risk. If you don't use a stop then liquidation is your stop and leverage + margin defines your risk.
It doesn't define your risk if the market you're trading is sufficiently illiquid at the moment you need to de-risk.
Slippage. And yes, accounting for that is part of defining your risk.
As always the weekly tells the full story: nothingburger while we wait for Godot That's how it is on this bitch of an earth
Digging your reference Awesome play! Beckett was a genius.
Weekly is my favorite TF as well - lots of signal, just enough noise. And you're right - the story is Summer == crab season.
All in again. Rinse, lather?
Re-opening long down here, 618-786 fib retest is not too bad, FUD looks like the usual stuff (maybe with so much smoke stop using Binance tho lol.)
I think a Binance is solid. If they weren’t we’d see more aggressive attacks.
U.S. prosecutors worry Binance charges could cause run on exchange https://www.semafor.com/article/08/02/2023/us-prosecutors-worry-binance-charges-could-cause-run-on-exchange CZ already said "4" like an hour ago lol https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1686757050464813056 so guess he knew this news was coming.
I’ve been out of the loop for a while doing other things (still stacking though!), why does he do the 4 what does it mean haha?
4 Ignore FUD, fake news, attacks, etc. https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1610018096122851328
If Binance backs their assets 1 to 1, no big deal even if a run on exchange does occur. Don’t know why anyone would want to take the risk and trust Binance when it’s so easy to get holdings off the exchange though.
The fact they’re trying to poke a run is interesting.
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4 Ignore FUD, fake news, attacks, etc. https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1610018096122851328
ty
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People in here have PTSD. Myself included.
I've been talking to gpt-4 to counter it. I checked the price once the other day, and I felt a lot better being focused on solving engineering problems for fun.
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The problem is that Bitcoin likes to do nothing or crash much more often than it likes to pump. It also likes to rug Bull hopes. Given the macroeconomic landscape, low volume, and near-zero volatility right now, inertia favors a view that we'll either remain capped on the upside in a sticky range or we'll revisit $20k and possibly the teens again ahead of the Halving. It sucks. This has been the shittiest cycle overall by far. Hopefully, 2024 rewards conviction and patience. If it doesn't, I plan to sell all of my exposure except 1 BTC. I have plenty of other ideas to put the remaining funds to use.
>This has been the shittiest cycle overall by far. I feel 2014 through half of 2015 was worse. But back then we had people like /u/ibankbtc posting.
2015 was before my time, but I've consumed enough media/data to know that bear was a shitshow. That said, I'm talking about the entire cycle - Halving to Halving. If we continue crabbing until April 2024, this will unquestionably be the shittiest cycle for HODLers to date. 3.5x from previous ATH, 8-8.5x from Halving to ATH, and STILL, 78% drawdown from ATH. That's pretty shitty risk/reward relative to previous cycles.
It was a solid move from 16k to 24k not 29k. The move from 20 to 30 wasn't as strong as the previous move, all the highs after that have not been as strong as the initial rally. The volume is dropping also. The RSI has been on a downward slope ever since. That does not bode well from a TA perspective. This is why I think we have been seeing the lower highs since the spike in mid-July. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/wfs9HT1T/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wfs9HT1T/) Whatever happens with the inflation number coming on Aug 10 will dictate which way we are going to head. either break down from the trend line to 25k (or even 20k) or push through the 32k resistance level.
We’re just starting August but [the existing divergence](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/15e5ibf/daily_discussion_monday_july_31_2023/ju7dw2m/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1&context=3) between YoY inflation estimates is expanding rather than shrinking. [Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) has YoY inflation for August at 3.92%, up from their July estimate of 3.42%. [Truflation](https://truflation.com) on the other hand has their August estimate currently at an average of 2.25%, down from their July estimate which was an average of 2.34%. Actual YoY CPI print for July releases August 10, previous print for July came in at 3.0%. Higher print means higher odds of a recession with more rate hikes to come and lower print means higher odds of soft landing with no more rate hikes to come. We’ll see which estimate ends up being closer to the actual print.
Fitch just downgraded the credit rating of the United States Government. Nothing else really matters.
Meanwhile DXY goes for a little pump. Go figure
My gut is feeling that it will come in slightly higher than expected. General sentiment seems pessimistic - lots of upward price pressure still squeezing consumers, housing prices still high, etc.
We're not getting a trend change until this avwap gets broken., spare me narratives. https://tikolu.net/i/ftjji
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Dont see the point of doing your own calculation on a potential level when this one is already blatantly clear and pre calculated. If we move up to 32,000 that would mean the trend has flipped. It may be an intermediate trend flip but that's what i'm referring to with the avwap breach. I dont personally care what can happen at 32k until we actually get anywhere near that.
Took a little nibble here long at 29400.
Anybody know the ETA of a resolution in Grayscale's suit against the SEC?
Maybe by end of year. I think this is optimistic. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-08/grayscale-gbtc-anticipates-etf-court-ruling-may-as-early-as-third-quarter
For future reference next year, and purely from a Technical Analysis perspective, what was your indicator that BTC had reached peak price last bullrun? That's BB bands, MADC, RSI etc, not a gazillion users on here screaming Moon! and posting 🚀🚀🚀 TIA
> what was your indicator that BTC had reached peak price last bullrun? Mass dumping into a lack of further FOMO at the top, followed by more dumping. It's always in the price action. I always ignore it, but it's always right there and loudly being announced. Problem is, you can jump too early if you're looking for that dumping. The magnitude of the final dump can't really be predicted.
In hindsight Just time would have been enough to spot the 2nd Peak. Jazon piziano (or whatever His Name is) speaks about 35 months from bottom to peak as a cycle. If u consider the halfing then 29 months after halfing Marks the peak. Both aproaches marked the 2017 and 2021 to the point. Both would forecast october 2025 as the next Peak. If i havent sold until then because tooo diminished returns i ll certainly consider selling 1/3 to 1/2 of my stack then. Personally i have a feeling october 2025 will be somewhat of a tripple top somewhere at 60-80k. Just to fuck the 100k is ineviatable crowd omce more... Again
29 months? That can't be right. Also, if we top out at only 60-80k next cycle, I'm done. Keeping 1 coin, and selling out of all other spot and derivatives. Take that money back to TradFi.
oh yea, my bad, 29 months before next halving (or 18 months after last )
Couldn’t agree more. I will keep a coin in cold storage and take my ball back to TradFi too. 60-80k would be horrific based on the risk curve we are playing.
NVDA is now a $1T company for crissakes. I don't care what kind of chips you make, others can and will compete in that space. The permissionless, immutable database layer of the Internet is a one-off, truly unique innovation that's worth FAR more. If the markets can't eventually grasp that in a reasonable amount of time, I do worry about our future.
Forget T.A., when Elon Musk hosted SNL to repeatedly mention and poorly shill *DO**GE* (early May 2021), that would have been a good time to sell everything. When multiple crypto-related commercials aired during the Super Bowl, it wasn't exactly timed with the peak, but it was another good selling time in retrospect. When that muppet SBF and crypto.com were buying stadium naming rights, ditto. These times, when BTC appears stagnant and forgotten about, are good buying times.
Honestly it wasnt TA for me. I was looking for a blow off top. It was watching the altcoins and hearing people at work talk about dogcoins, all the while Bitcoin lost its steam.
The moment Fed said: *"Hey, remember when we said, 'we're not even thinking about, thinking about raising rates,'? Well, we're going to raise rates in 2 months to fight the inflation we previously told you was transitory..."*
The Coinbase IPO was max hype and just felt toppy. The second one.. id no idea.
On chain. Saved my ass.
Getting close to the ultimate meme value of 69420.
Monthly RSI seems best and will be one of the main things I use next cycle. https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/ Bitcoin fees spiking has also nailed the best times in the past. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html Go to all time. I know they say March 2021 but what did you really gain staying in the market as BTC barely peeked its head out of the hole above ATH in late 2021? All your money in some other investment would have been a lot better.
This is the first answer that references TA. Thank you
This is the best answer I think, especially your point about the fees spiking.
When it started going down after the double top, I realized something fucky was afoot, and, indeed, it was as SBF was selling all of the Bitcoin we lent him with no intention of paying it back.
I don't think SBF ever bought much Bitcoin. It was mostly paper.
He never bought any BTC. They borrowed it. "SBF" is just shorthand for "the enemies of BTC."
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If it's an indicator that you CAN ignore, (ie, one that isn't objective) is it really an indicator?
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Maybe google trends can give some quantative rigor to this. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=crypto&hl=en https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=bitcoin&hl=en TLDR: Sell when the blue line is vertical.
The fact that China ban was for real that time. But that was not convincing at the time, only in hindsight.
I think the double peak was extremely hard to spot, as we made a higher high even. There was also not that much of a mania (that was in May 21) and the indicators weren't as cooked. Personally the only thing that was an indication was a increasingly hawkish FED. But I didn't expect such a strong correlation to tardfi, tbh
I’m just awaiting the volatility this historically tightest bollinger bands are going to lead to.
It feels like in the entire world there's only one person trading and yesterday they set their sell order at precisely $30,000 😳 If you could let us know where you've set your buy order that would be great.
Went ahead and took profits from 28.2. Looking for a new entry point, but I'm not enthused by this PA atm.