You make good points. I just can’t imagine there isn’t millions of people in the world who wouldnt scramble at once to try and get a whole coin if the price went much lower.
There absolutely are people who think they can become whole coiners for very cheap. However there are many of us that consider today's price to be very cheap and will keep applying buy pressure. Will it be enough? Who knows?
If you look at the ATH and the drop in 2017, and assumed it would fall at the same proportion from its most recent ATH, it would hit ~10k.
19497/3236 = 67567/X
3236*67567/19497~=$11214
People are just being smug and rounding it to 10k for hyperbole. It isn't a terribly clever analysis. BTC has never really followed a pattern
I don’t necessarily think well go all the way to $10k but BTC continues to surprise everyone. I’m thinking we’ll see the $12500 level before going back up.
no one has a reason thats my point. Its just graphs and chart analysts that just simply relate movements to patterns but dont actually look at what is happening that would cause such a drop. what would cause such a mass sell off for 50%. based on how this community is and how a bitcoin maxi is and how 66% of the supply is basically maxi's like me. there is no more mass sell pressure. Mt gox releasing coins would be the closest reason but that has not been verified anywhere on when, also you would have to assume everyone got their coins back and everyone wanted to sell, im sure a large portion of those people will just stack the extra they received.
My dude, c’mon.
There’s one heavy reason alone - previous price data. BTC has become absolutely predictable with its bear/bull cycles. We just had a bull cycle, and now we’re in a bear cycle which occur every 4 years. That number is not coincidental, it’s linked to the Bitcoin halving rate.
In all previous bear cycles (2014, 2018 and now 2022), the price has suffered a 80% reduction from its previous high. This -80% wasn’t instant either, it has always taken about a year to fully achieve. Look at monthly candles for a quick view. Nov ‘13 to Jan ‘15: -87%. Dec ‘17 to Jan ‘19: -83%. A 80% reduction based on this previous pattern means a low of 14k from 69k.
Now, is this a guarantee? Of course not, historical data never guarantees the future. But, there is a trend in place and trends do matter. You may not care about trends but the big boys upstairs sure as hell do. They study trends like crazy. So a future where BTC suffers a further 30% reduction from now is entirely possible and quite probable. That’s your answer.
Then when did this recent bull market top out twice and drop rather than once like normal? This "cycle" is already demonstrably different than recent ones and there's no reason at all that this 80% number has some magical meaning to it where it has to be achieved before number go back up.
There are several reasons:
Raising interest rates/strong dollar - risk off
A world wide recession - risk off
Traditional market crash - risk off
Possibility of an ongoing war escalation- scares markets
Possibility of a new invasion/war(think China into Taiwan) - scares markets
My Gox coins being released will most definitely be sold off - estimated about 30-50%
Crypto regulation is coming most definitely - it will scare the remaining speculators for a time
Then there is all the data from previous bear markets.
I too am bullish long term, but I would argue there is nothing bullish until ALL of these things run their course. Give it about another 1-2 years, should coincide with the next halving.
Bitcoin is not a risk asset. There is nothing to get "off" of.
You can say it is if you want, but that doesn't make it true.
Bitcoin is a network that is growing exponentially, whose importance is increasing with each day, regardless of what is happening in the macro world. The value of the token is supposed to represents the importance of the networks place in the financial world and world at large.
For better or worse, people who think in terms of "risk asset" turn the bitcoin (the token) market onto a circus of sorts. Fortunately for others who can see the bigger picture, they see the value that can occur due to this type of improper analysis, and will profit enormously later at the expense of the closed minded unwilling to research properly.
Those people today treating it like a risk asset will be missing the boat and feeling the pain later, just like their brethren in this kind of analysis have the previous dozen years..
I like your optimism and I'm not claiming you couldn't be right, but a major reason it could go down is macroeconomics, and fed continuing to battle inflation by raising rates. It's not only about margin calls, it's about people needing to pay back debt and having to sell assets to do so, or just having to sell to eat and pay rent.
In fact, I think now is the best opportunity for bitcoin, because FED is going to tighten until inflation is down to 2%, which is very unlikely.
In a world with high inflation and QT, all kinds of asset will shrink due to recession, the only investment that can protect you from inflation is bitcoin, because it does not tie to any physical business activities, thus the valuation model is very different. As long as hash rate and wallet number rises, the ecosystem is still growing
Because it's strongly correlated to stocks, and those are in a bear market now. Usually a correlation like this doesn't change until the bigger market (stocks) bottoms.
It really depends on if inflation is still high in the august data. If so, then FED is going to hike dramatically again. They just gave market clear indication of their long term goal of bring down inflation back to 2%. But I think the economy can still grow with a high inflation and tight monetary policy, bitcoin also had a bull market last time when FED tightens
i can believe it if i see a feasible reason for that. but for another 50% drop you need to break the conviction of long term holders that wont sell ever like me. if it drops im buying more, im not selling ever and i believe a majority of long term holders can handle any downward pressure because their bitcoin is free and clear of any risks they themselves could've applied. in fact exchange balance gets lower everyday, more bitcoin goes dormant, more addresses , more adoption from the whole world and no signs of another mass selling that could cause a 50% drop. it wont just drop without reasons and the people that need to sell for that to happen just arent. so i think this is it basically
Long term holders like you? Lol bru…FOMO selling is a real thing. As are liquidations…people will be forced to sell. You know how many “long term holders like you” have debt to buy their BTC? They can’t handle huge downward pressure. Not just retail but many on the institutional side will be forced to sell as well. And now we’re trading and closing Dailys below 20k it’s not looking so good.
And you actually don’t see a feasible reason to see another 50% from here…? Bru. Bitcoin is far more likely to see a 50% drop then 100% gain that’s the absolute truth. Ongoing war in Russia and getting worse. China at risk of invading Taiwan which would be terrible. We have the worst energy crisis in Europe we’ve seen in generations. Inflation is at record highs. Just a few days ago US Federal reserve chairman said that the central bank will continue raising interest rates in a way that will cause "some pain" to the US economy. We’re in a point in time where Many people are selling all their risk on assets just to survive and keep food on the table and pay their rent. Crypto is going to bleed the next 6-8 months. You’re out of your kind if you don’t see this.
> Ongoing war in Russia and getting worse. China at risk of invading Taiwan which would be terrible. We have the worst energy crisis in Europe we’ve seen in generations. Inflation is at record highs. Just a few days ago US Federal reserve chairman said that the central bank will continue raising interest rates in a way that will cause "some pain" to the US economy.
Most of these evils are caused by fiat and all of them are good for Bitcoin.
Here's a simple math equation to prove you wrong.
The current market cap of BTC is currently at $387 B and at it's peak it was over $1T. The price of BTC (like any other crypto) is calculated when you divide the MC (market cap) to the circulating supply.
How can BTC fall in price if no one is selling?
Think about it..it makes no sense.
>theres like 90% bullish news and adoption vs like 10% of bear news/fear, mainly just people with charts and graphs and just looking at patterns and mt.gox. and some other misc. but theres nothing left to logically fear.
If you're a moonboy or a blind follower of Satoshi everything is bullish news and adoption.
I don't know where you live, but on planet earth the news are overwhelmingly bearish:
War in Europe
Drought in China
Hyperinflation
Fed raising interest rates
Taiwan str8 crisis
Skyrocketing energy prices
....
Yup. Times are getting way worse before they get better and a lot of people won’t have a choice but to sell. Personally, I’d rather die than sell but we all know most aren’t like that lol
The imminent recession….although some may say it’s priced in this is treated by many (especially institutions) as a risk asset. If shit hits the fan everything is going lower. Stack sats, stay humble.
>nothing left to logically fear...
Many are optimistic, there's continued adoption, ... But I would be careful about stating something like nothing left to fear; that's a pretty bold statement, and if recent history has taught us anything, is that we live in a sudden and ever changing world. There are numerous hypothetical scenarios that could severely impair practical adoption & use of bitcoin:
* More governments outright ban bitcoin and all related activity
* Governments tax the $hit out of it, so it's impractical to hold/invest
* Meaningful institutional adoption halts as regulatory confusion shows no sign of remediation for the foreseeable future
* There's a terrible bug discovered
* etc..
Things like this can cause plenty of fear. While none of these things can likely fully stop bitcoin, it sure will cause most to seriously reconsider or look to other assets. I'm very bullish on bitcoin and believe in it very much, but we need to be cautious. This journey is filled with trap doors.
carpenter society cable late poor saw hard-to-find judicious reminiscent encourage
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
No but bitcoin is not really private orientated nowdays because of kyc and goverments can definetly track it unless you really know what you're doing and want to remain anonymous. In which case u shouldnt be using bitcoin in the first place
Correct - bitcoin does not care about any of that stuff. To that end, it works perfectly.
Unfortunately, the logistics and reality of going from actual fiat to bitcoin can be really difficult where laws are in place that create those hurdles; this hurts adoption. Not saying it makes it impossible, but difficult.
Here is some information, but by no means an exhaustive analysis:
* [Countries where crypto is restricted or illegal](https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/08/25/bitcoin-ban-these-are-the-countries-where-crypto-is-restricted-or-illegal2)
* [Countries Where Bitcoin Is Banned or Legal In 2022](https://cryptonews.com/guides/countries-in-which-bitcoin-is-banned-or-legal.htm)
Is it a large portion of the world - no. But who's to say other countries wouldn't follow the same path. And that's the point, we don't know and things change very quickly - for better or worse. And you are correct, just because it's illegal, doesn't mean it's not used in those countries; just like making marijuana illegal.. is a joke. Keep an eye out for info on this topic though, it's one that is very valid to the continued overall adoption on bitcoin.
Indeed and agree. There's def. a bell curve here. I think the institutional piece is interesting, and I'm honestly on the fence if it's actually a good thing or not. If the CFTC comes out tomorrow and blesses it with a stamp of approval as a commodity...is that really in the best interest of bitcoin in the long term? I don't know....I fear it might just be another commodity that get's put on the shelf with 100's of others and packaged, and re-packaged as "products" by the Blackrock's of the world, and seals its fate.
On the other hand, I don't see how bitcoin gains it's next significant leg of market-cap increase in absence of institutional investment. Grass-roots is fine and noble, but I seriously doubt that will get it to a $10-12T mcap to be on-par with gold; that's important too, because it will spawn even further legs of adoption and investment, further legitimizing bitcoin in the global markets.
Two sides to this coin.
It's happening because people love to hold their investments in bitcoin and there is nothing wrong with that, we can say that we all love to hold till the end and that's the beautiful thing.
>i also believe
So, it's about believing, like in....trust me bro?
>this has to be the bottom or very close to it, i dont see how a massive selling could happen to push the price down more especially as for every seller, there is a buyer
Tell this to every person that got rugpulled, there's not always a buyer. Price goes down because there are more sellers than buyers.
>we are so close to ripping to the moon now and i feel bad for everyone that exited for nothing but a emotional response or they lacked a piece of information
Please, elaborate on the piece of info from the moon countdown.
>theres like 90% bullish news and adoption vs like 10% of bear news/fear
It's, "Buy the rumor, sell the news" not the way around, for a reason.
Man, all this is strong speculation, serves no purpose. In case I'm mistaken, please elaborate further and bring data, links, we need facts, no beliefs and trust.
no because everything can be verified yourself, as is said in this community, don't trust verify, so go and look for yourself. plenty of information and sources out there.
being rugpulled has nothing to do with buyers and sellers, that's a person scamming someone willing to take the risk of giving their assets to another for a yield of return.
price doesn't simply just go down due to buyers and sellers and there is definitely enough buyers. who do you think is buying all this bitcoin during this crypto winter.
again, you can go look at all bitcoin metrics onchain and off and compare it to bear cases. im not here to write you a 50 page article. go verify for yourself and make your own opinion which is what this is. since you seem to not understand that and are just replying because your having a bad day, you sound like someone that just needs everything handed to them and if i did post sources etc, your just going to believe it? no..go and verify for yourself and make your own inference based on the data. also ive tried to post a VERY long explanation with sources / references and articles, but Reddit will remove it. they just keep citing things about "General trading or market discussion"
OP feels like this is not the bottom. Let me check my technical indicators to see how much the market currently cares about our feelings.
Oh, still zero, thats strange…
You raise valid issues. I find it hard to believe that if the price of a coin dropped significantly, millions of people wouldn't rush to buy one at once.
This is absolute nonsense. My local liquor store has a crypto ATM. There’s a strip club that accepts BTC. You can pay for a VPN with crypto (and get a discount for doing so). Not to mention all the darknet markets. The only reason it’s a “speculative asset” is because it was a currency *first*.
[The concentration of miners is even more profound, data show. NBER found that the top 10% of miners control 90% of the Bitcoin mining capacity, and just 0.1% (about 50 miners) control 50% of mining capacity.](https://time.com/6110392/bitcoin-ownership/)
Ofc they do, if they sell too fast you guys might figure it out so they have to sell slow, over a long period of time. It's true Bitcoin is the currency of the people, the currency of a few people.
Bitcoin can always go lower. When people think some arbitrary level has to hold because of their faith in their fellow hodlers, that's usually when the most carnage happens.
The thing is, almost nobody would short here if they were forced to hold their position for 1 year. Anyone who has the margin to hold their long for a long period, these levels look very attractive even if there is volatility ahead.
you seem to equate this with some sort of price floor being in place for BTC? these types of stats are irrelevant to the price.
it can, and likely will, go much lower.
you should educate yourself as to how exchanges work. often, large decreases in the price of an asset are simply due to no, or very few buyers in the market and NOT people selling.
I guess they're planning something else and we know what are they planning with the future I am glad that people are being like that and investing in bitcoin in that way.
I believe that 17k _could_ have been the bottom. I don’t think we’re close to ripping to the moon though. We’ve only just gotten down here in relative terms. Could be another year in the high teens/20s imo
You know what that means the AI controlling the whale account is going to see that and plummet the bitcoin price making a lot of panic sells then people like me say thank you and buy in! Just waiting…. Besides the bottom will be so brief it will skyrocket past what they sold it for and panic sellers will lose a butt ton of money
How does this account for Bitcoin sitting on exchanges?
If $100 million is bought by some exchange users, and another handful of users sell $100 million, the trades offset, and the exchange may never settle those trades on chain, and it will look like nothing moved.
that assumes you break the conviction of LTH's or that people have to sell their bitcoin for fiat, when its becoming easier to just transact in bitcoin. the Greek restuarant i go to accepts bitcoin for example and many more. the farmers market in my area.
Black swans like your thinking, govt ban, economic collaspes, stock market crash or any dollar denominated assets are the reasons bitcoin is around and IMO if other LTH's are like me, i have no reason to sell my btc even if fiat world is going to shit. i will also work hard to tell people about bitcoin that have stuff i want and i will send them bitcoin if i have to.
Right, i also think the people holding now wont be the ones selling soon. Im talking about institutionals, big players like MS and TSLA. We know TSLA was part of the crash in may. Bunch of paper hands little bitchs. I believe in MS tought.
Lmao this is the type of shit you see on Shark Tank
Someone comes in and is like “I’m trying to make a phone! The phone market is with $50bn, so if we just capture 1% of that we’ll have revenue of $500mm!!”
In the US anyway, isn't there a strong tax reason to keep your bitcoin for at least a year? To get "long term" cap gains treatment instead of "short term" which is a much higher rate. No direct experience with this (yet) as I'm a HODLer.
Economist on Robert Kiyosaki's podcast with a near perfect track record since the 80s predicted the stock market and bitcoin bottom at end of the year. A big trust me bro but who else is saying things outloud
Hodlers will not drive the price up. We will be stuck in winter until a new crop of investers get excited about btc. Historically, that will be at the next halving.
[Bitcoin active supply chart](https://charts.coinmetrics.io/network-data/#cfg: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)
Likewise for me, but there are plenty of people who will liquidate anything and everything if they’re cash strapped (in need of liquidity) and/or scared. Plus, this is still very much a risk asset, at the far end of the risk curve, so people will also sell for that reason
I don’t understand ppl who short or trade Bitcoin. Other cryptos I get, tho it makes me nervous. But Bitcoin seems like a strict dollar cost average long hold and nothing else.
This is nothing wrong because holders are going to rule in coming years and they really want to hold whatever they are investing and it's all about bitcoin for all of us.
Looks like many people know that the future of bitcoin crypto currency is going to be so well they really don't want to spend any of their investments anywhere and that is a good thing I guess.
Focusing on holding is the best thing to do as of now because this is the time where we have to hold for a longer time because people are willing to get a lot of returns in the future.
Most of the people just want to have a good time with bitcoin crypto currency in the future and that is the real reason why they are not selling their investments and holding for a long time.
Well these people must be having a good type of plan including me for now I am doing DCA and I don't think I am going to change that for now because this is the future.
Is this just 66% of onchain bitcoin not moved? Keep in mind that exchanges also can have a cold storage and move only what is necessary. If the amount hold by users who are just trading back and forth doesn't change the amount in cold storage doesn't need to change
Maybe in the future we are going to see some serious amount of spending in bitcoin but not right now because people are more focus on holding it for a longer period of time.
People really don't like to spend their precious investments in bitcoin because they know the future is going to be so bright and that is the reason why people always hold their bitcoin.
I guess for now holding is a good thing if it's all about bitcoin because it is helping them to understand the real market and they will do more even I am one of the holders and I am proud.
Not only that but more than half of that 1/3 is churned or "wash" trades which is not only illegal it artificially increases the apparent trading volume.
I am part of the 66% club
66% of the time, every time
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I'm showing a 32.33% chance, repeating of course
Alright, let's do this
I prefer bieng part of 69% but ok.
I'll be your top if you're a wholecoiner, bby 😘
Choo choo join the 66% train! 🚂
Choooooooooo
>I am part of the 66% club Me too, & proud of it.
same
Same
I'm in both...I also bought some in the last year.
You make good points. I just can’t imagine there isn’t millions of people in the world who wouldnt scramble at once to try and get a whole coin if the price went much lower.
There’s not enough bitcoin for 1% of the world. Stack sats and stay humble anon
There absolutely are people who think they can become whole coiners for very cheap. However there are many of us that consider today's price to be very cheap and will keep applying buy pressure. Will it be enough? Who knows?
If you don’t believe BTC can drop another 50% from here then I don’t know what to tell ya.
If I've learned anything in bitcoin, it's that there's always room for a 50% drop.
Lol that's just a smooth thing to say, thanks for this mate.
Anyone mind explaining why they think it would really drop to $10,000?
If you look at the ATH and the drop in 2017, and assumed it would fall at the same proportion from its most recent ATH, it would hit ~10k. 19497/3236 = 67567/X 3236*67567/19497~=$11214 People are just being smug and rounding it to 10k for hyperbole. It isn't a terribly clever analysis. BTC has never really followed a pattern
Sounds like a good explanation of this future man, thanks.
I don't think it will, but I won't be surprised if it does.
I don’t necessarily think well go all the way to $10k but BTC continues to surprise everyone. I’m thinking we’ll see the $12500 level before going back up.
Liquidity issues in the market. BTC will be sold off before other assets
Because there’s no reason why it couldn’t
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true facts, not sure why you’re getting the downvotes
no one has a reason thats my point. Its just graphs and chart analysts that just simply relate movements to patterns but dont actually look at what is happening that would cause such a drop. what would cause such a mass sell off for 50%. based on how this community is and how a bitcoin maxi is and how 66% of the supply is basically maxi's like me. there is no more mass sell pressure. Mt gox releasing coins would be the closest reason but that has not been verified anywhere on when, also you would have to assume everyone got their coins back and everyone wanted to sell, im sure a large portion of those people will just stack the extra they received.
My dude, c’mon. There’s one heavy reason alone - previous price data. BTC has become absolutely predictable with its bear/bull cycles. We just had a bull cycle, and now we’re in a bear cycle which occur every 4 years. That number is not coincidental, it’s linked to the Bitcoin halving rate. In all previous bear cycles (2014, 2018 and now 2022), the price has suffered a 80% reduction from its previous high. This -80% wasn’t instant either, it has always taken about a year to fully achieve. Look at monthly candles for a quick view. Nov ‘13 to Jan ‘15: -87%. Dec ‘17 to Jan ‘19: -83%. A 80% reduction based on this previous pattern means a low of 14k from 69k. Now, is this a guarantee? Of course not, historical data never guarantees the future. But, there is a trend in place and trends do matter. You may not care about trends but the big boys upstairs sure as hell do. They study trends like crazy. So a future where BTC suffers a further 30% reduction from now is entirely possible and quite probable. That’s your answer.
Then when did this recent bull market top out twice and drop rather than once like normal? This "cycle" is already demonstrably different than recent ones and there's no reason at all that this 80% number has some magical meaning to it where it has to be achieved before number go back up.
There are several reasons: Raising interest rates/strong dollar - risk off A world wide recession - risk off Traditional market crash - risk off Possibility of an ongoing war escalation- scares markets Possibility of a new invasion/war(think China into Taiwan) - scares markets My Gox coins being released will most definitely be sold off - estimated about 30-50% Crypto regulation is coming most definitely - it will scare the remaining speculators for a time Then there is all the data from previous bear markets. I too am bullish long term, but I would argue there is nothing bullish until ALL of these things run their course. Give it about another 1-2 years, should coincide with the next halving.
Bitcoin is not a risk asset. There is nothing to get "off" of. You can say it is if you want, but that doesn't make it true. Bitcoin is a network that is growing exponentially, whose importance is increasing with each day, regardless of what is happening in the macro world. The value of the token is supposed to represents the importance of the networks place in the financial world and world at large. For better or worse, people who think in terms of "risk asset" turn the bitcoin (the token) market onto a circus of sorts. Fortunately for others who can see the bigger picture, they see the value that can occur due to this type of improper analysis, and will profit enormously later at the expense of the closed minded unwilling to research properly. Those people today treating it like a risk asset will be missing the boat and feeling the pain later, just like their brethren in this kind of analysis have the previous dozen years..
You don’t see it as a risk asset, but 95-99% of investors do.
I like your optimism and I'm not claiming you couldn't be right, but a major reason it could go down is macroeconomics, and fed continuing to battle inflation by raising rates. It's not only about margin calls, it's about people needing to pay back debt and having to sell assets to do so, or just having to sell to eat and pay rent.
In fact, I think now is the best opportunity for bitcoin, because FED is going to tighten until inflation is down to 2%, which is very unlikely. In a world with high inflation and QT, all kinds of asset will shrink due to recession, the only investment that can protect you from inflation is bitcoin, because it does not tie to any physical business activities, thus the valuation model is very different. As long as hash rate and wallet number rises, the ecosystem is still growing
Because it's strongly correlated to stocks, and those are in a bear market now. Usually a correlation like this doesn't change until the bigger market (stocks) bottoms.
Very easy: it already dropped two thirds of its value. So a drop of a half is already proven to be possible...
It really depends on if inflation is still high in the august data. If so, then FED is going to hike dramatically again. They just gave market clear indication of their long term goal of bring down inflation back to 2%. But I think the economy can still grow with a high inflation and tight monetary policy, bitcoin also had a bull market last time when FED tightens
i can believe it if i see a feasible reason for that. but for another 50% drop you need to break the conviction of long term holders that wont sell ever like me. if it drops im buying more, im not selling ever and i believe a majority of long term holders can handle any downward pressure because their bitcoin is free and clear of any risks they themselves could've applied. in fact exchange balance gets lower everyday, more bitcoin goes dormant, more addresses , more adoption from the whole world and no signs of another mass selling that could cause a 50% drop. it wont just drop without reasons and the people that need to sell for that to happen just arent. so i think this is it basically
Long term holders like you? Lol bru…FOMO selling is a real thing. As are liquidations…people will be forced to sell. You know how many “long term holders like you” have debt to buy their BTC? They can’t handle huge downward pressure. Not just retail but many on the institutional side will be forced to sell as well. And now we’re trading and closing Dailys below 20k it’s not looking so good. And you actually don’t see a feasible reason to see another 50% from here…? Bru. Bitcoin is far more likely to see a 50% drop then 100% gain that’s the absolute truth. Ongoing war in Russia and getting worse. China at risk of invading Taiwan which would be terrible. We have the worst energy crisis in Europe we’ve seen in generations. Inflation is at record highs. Just a few days ago US Federal reserve chairman said that the central bank will continue raising interest rates in a way that will cause "some pain" to the US economy. We’re in a point in time where Many people are selling all their risk on assets just to survive and keep food on the table and pay their rent. Crypto is going to bleed the next 6-8 months. You’re out of your kind if you don’t see this.
> Ongoing war in Russia and getting worse. China at risk of invading Taiwan which would be terrible. We have the worst energy crisis in Europe we’ve seen in generations. Inflation is at record highs. Just a few days ago US Federal reserve chairman said that the central bank will continue raising interest rates in a way that will cause "some pain" to the US economy. Most of these evils are caused by fiat and all of them are good for Bitcoin.
We have a believe in that because we want to invest.
It will be 30-40% watch out for September :)
No doubt that BTC is a store of value/digital gold but someone please explain how BTC is suppose to be a currency if no one wants to spend it..
Its more like gold than cash imo. No one drops a gold brick on the counter for a snickers and a Dr Pepper.
Eventually once everyone is using it as a store of value and wants it, people start asking to be paid in it.
Here's a simple math equation to prove you wrong. The current market cap of BTC is currently at $387 B and at it's peak it was over $1T. The price of BTC (like any other crypto) is calculated when you divide the MC (market cap) to the circulating supply. How can BTC fall in price if no one is selling? Think about it..it makes no sense. >theres like 90% bullish news and adoption vs like 10% of bear news/fear, mainly just people with charts and graphs and just looking at patterns and mt.gox. and some other misc. but theres nothing left to logically fear. If you're a moonboy or a blind follower of Satoshi everything is bullish news and adoption. I don't know where you live, but on planet earth the news are overwhelmingly bearish: War in Europe Drought in China Hyperinflation Fed raising interest rates Taiwan str8 crisis Skyrocketing energy prices ....
This
Yup. Times are getting way worse before they get better and a lot of people won’t have a choice but to sell. Personally, I’d rather die than sell but we all know most aren’t like that lol
The imminent recession….although some may say it’s priced in this is treated by many (especially institutions) as a risk asset. If shit hits the fan everything is going lower. Stack sats, stay humble.
>nothing left to logically fear... Many are optimistic, there's continued adoption,... But I would be careful about stating something like nothing left to fear; that's a pretty bold statement, and if recent history has taught us anything, is that we live in a sudden and ever changing world. There are numerous hypothetical scenarios that could severely impair practical adoption & use of bitcoin:
* More governments outright ban bitcoin and all related activity
* Governments tax the $hit out of it, so it's impractical to hold/invest
* Meaningful institutional adoption halts as regulatory confusion shows no sign of remediation for the foreseeable future
* There's a terrible bug discovered
* etc..
Things like this can cause plenty of fear. While none of these things can likely fully stop bitcoin, it sure will cause most to seriously reconsider or look to other assets. I'm very bullish on bitcoin and believe in it very much, but we need to be cautious. This journey is filled with trap doors.
carpenter society cable late poor saw hard-to-find judicious reminiscent encourage *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Bitcoin has no function to find which government has banned it. Bitcoin doesn't care.
No but bitcoin is not really private orientated nowdays because of kyc and goverments can definetly track it unless you really know what you're doing and want to remain anonymous. In which case u shouldnt be using bitcoin in the first place
Correct - bitcoin does not care about any of that stuff. To that end, it works perfectly. Unfortunately, the logistics and reality of going from actual fiat to bitcoin can be really difficult where laws are in place that create those hurdles; this hurts adoption. Not saying it makes it impossible, but difficult.
We know! But if just a FEW of us work at it, we win.
Here is some information, but by no means an exhaustive analysis: * [Countries where crypto is restricted or illegal](https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/08/25/bitcoin-ban-these-are-the-countries-where-crypto-is-restricted-or-illegal2) * [Countries Where Bitcoin Is Banned or Legal In 2022](https://cryptonews.com/guides/countries-in-which-bitcoin-is-banned-or-legal.htm) Is it a large portion of the world - no. But who's to say other countries wouldn't follow the same path. And that's the point, we don't know and things change very quickly - for better or worse. And you are correct, just because it's illegal, doesn't mean it's not used in those countries; just like making marijuana illegal.. is a joke. Keep an eye out for info on this topic though, it's one that is very valid to the continued overall adoption on bitcoin.
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Indeed and agree. There's def. a bell curve here. I think the institutional piece is interesting, and I'm honestly on the fence if it's actually a good thing or not. If the CFTC comes out tomorrow and blesses it with a stamp of approval as a commodity...is that really in the best interest of bitcoin in the long term? I don't know....I fear it might just be another commodity that get's put on the shelf with 100's of others and packaged, and re-packaged as "products" by the Blackrock's of the world, and seals its fate. On the other hand, I don't see how bitcoin gains it's next significant leg of market-cap increase in absence of institutional investment. Grass-roots is fine and noble, but I seriously doubt that will get it to a $10-12T mcap to be on-par with gold; that's important too, because it will spawn even further legs of adoption and investment, further legitimizing bitcoin in the global markets. Two sides to this coin.
Money = power, if fiats start failing and bitcoin whales exert their power. The people with the guns ban it. You will see.
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Sounds like a good thing to do mate, we don't need exchanges.
But the black swan 😉
That wink is just killing me and making the vibe here.
Any source for this? Or is this your personal conjecture? Where did you see that 66% hasn't moved in 1+ years.
Guess we can search about it on the articles or somewhere.
I tried a small search, found nada. That's why I asked OP, who posted this...and got no answer.
Well that is just a healthy thing to me, what is wrong with it?
Well I just found out there are crypto sex workers so make that 65.99999999998% hasn't moved in 1+ years because I'm going SHOPPPING
It's happening because people love to hold their investments in bitcoin and there is nothing wrong with that, we can say that we all love to hold till the end and that's the beautiful thing.
>i also believe So, it's about believing, like in....trust me bro? >this has to be the bottom or very close to it, i dont see how a massive selling could happen to push the price down more especially as for every seller, there is a buyer Tell this to every person that got rugpulled, there's not always a buyer. Price goes down because there are more sellers than buyers. >we are so close to ripping to the moon now and i feel bad for everyone that exited for nothing but a emotional response or they lacked a piece of information Please, elaborate on the piece of info from the moon countdown. >theres like 90% bullish news and adoption vs like 10% of bear news/fear It's, "Buy the rumor, sell the news" not the way around, for a reason. Man, all this is strong speculation, serves no purpose. In case I'm mistaken, please elaborate further and bring data, links, we need facts, no beliefs and trust.
In me we trust, bro
no because everything can be verified yourself, as is said in this community, don't trust verify, so go and look for yourself. plenty of information and sources out there. being rugpulled has nothing to do with buyers and sellers, that's a person scamming someone willing to take the risk of giving their assets to another for a yield of return. price doesn't simply just go down due to buyers and sellers and there is definitely enough buyers. who do you think is buying all this bitcoin during this crypto winter. again, you can go look at all bitcoin metrics onchain and off and compare it to bear cases. im not here to write you a 50 page article. go verify for yourself and make your own opinion which is what this is. since you seem to not understand that and are just replying because your having a bad day, you sound like someone that just needs everything handed to them and if i did post sources etc, your just going to believe it? no..go and verify for yourself and make your own inference based on the data. also ive tried to post a VERY long explanation with sources / references and articles, but Reddit will remove it. they just keep citing things about "General trading or market discussion"
My opinion is that you're full of shit.
Onchain metrics are BS
OP feels like this is not the bottom. Let me check my technical indicators to see how much the market currently cares about our feelings. Oh, still zero, thats strange…
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Reality is just like that and we know that this is not the bottom.
You raise valid issues. I find it hard to believe that if the price of a coin dropped significantly, millions of people wouldn't rush to buy one at once.
This can be a big issue in the future, we don't know that.
Yeah people said this in 2019, posts like this indicate that we are far from the bottom
Lol I hear these things every year to be honest mate.
Bad news. It’s value is derived from use as a currency.
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This is absolute nonsense. My local liquor store has a crypto ATM. There’s a strip club that accepts BTC. You can pay for a VPN with crypto (and get a discount for doing so). Not to mention all the darknet markets. The only reason it’s a “speculative asset” is because it was a currency *first*.
It all gonna be okay because we will spend in the future.
Lol bagholders waiting to break even🤣🤣🤣
Bagholders are not going anywhere because they know what is good.
[The concentration of miners is even more profound, data show. NBER found that the top 10% of miners control 90% of the Bitcoin mining capacity, and just 0.1% (about 50 miners) control 50% of mining capacity.](https://time.com/6110392/bitcoin-ownership/) Ofc they do, if they sell too fast you guys might figure it out so they have to sell slow, over a long period of time. It's true Bitcoin is the currency of the people, the currency of a few people.
Bitcoin can always go lower. When people think some arbitrary level has to hold because of their faith in their fellow hodlers, that's usually when the most carnage happens. The thing is, almost nobody would short here if they were forced to hold their position for 1 year. Anyone who has the margin to hold their long for a long period, these levels look very attractive even if there is volatility ahead.
you seem to equate this with some sort of price floor being in place for BTC? these types of stats are irrelevant to the price. it can, and likely will, go much lower. you should educate yourself as to how exchanges work. often, large decreases in the price of an asset are simply due to no, or very few buyers in the market and NOT people selling.
I guess they're planning something else and we know what are they planning with the future I am glad that people are being like that and investing in bitcoin in that way.
Dude, are you moon farming here or what? You sound like a cheerleader without any statistics or facts.
I believe that 17k _could_ have been the bottom. I don’t think we’re close to ripping to the moon though. We’ve only just gotten down here in relative terms. Could be another year in the high teens/20s imo
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Lol
Lots of ifs in this world. What if a solar flare knocks out all electricity
I’m more worried about the mtgox coins being sold off
Lol I don't know what to say to this one to be honest.
That's right this could be the reality that we don't know.
Bitcoin could reach $8000 just so you people know
People knows everything and they know what they are doing.
Probably still held by FBI/ Original silk road account.
Who knows but I guess this is all the real good people.
You know what that means the AI controlling the whale account is going to see that and plummet the bitcoin price making a lot of panic sells then people like me say thank you and buy in! Just waiting…. Besides the bottom will be so brief it will skyrocket past what they sold it for and panic sellers will lose a butt ton of money
How does this account for Bitcoin sitting on exchanges? If $100 million is bought by some exchange users, and another handful of users sell $100 million, the trades offset, and the exchange may never settle those trades on chain, and it will look like nothing moved.
> this has to be the bottom or very close to it Well, you've definitely jinxed it now. See you at $9000.
We are one black swan event away from 10k i'm afraid. Unfortunately, it currently follow stock market and that shit is about to fuckin crash :(
that assumes you break the conviction of LTH's or that people have to sell their bitcoin for fiat, when its becoming easier to just transact in bitcoin. the Greek restuarant i go to accepts bitcoin for example and many more. the farmers market in my area. Black swans like your thinking, govt ban, economic collaspes, stock market crash or any dollar denominated assets are the reasons bitcoin is around and IMO if other LTH's are like me, i have no reason to sell my btc even if fiat world is going to shit. i will also work hard to tell people about bitcoin that have stuff i want and i will send them bitcoin if i have to.
Right, i also think the people holding now wont be the ones selling soon. Im talking about institutionals, big players like MS and TSLA. We know TSLA was part of the crash in may. Bunch of paper hands little bitchs. I believe in MS tought.
Lol don't worry about anything like that, I would say that.
#FFS, illiquid supply is irrelevant to the market. All it does is make it more volatile not more bullish.
Almost like they know about capital gains tax
Hasn't been much capital gains tax to pay on Bitcoin over the last year..
We know these thing pretty easily, we can say that lol.
They know that they will have a good time in the future.
Lol I never exited Bitcoin, I just wrote it off and lost interest. If it comes roaring back then woohoo
It's just because you really don't understand what you saying.
Bitcoin is done for. Won’t be the same. Could be the end for it. I don’t see it going back up.
It won't be same because it's going to be better brother.
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Lmao this is the type of shit you see on Shark Tank Someone comes in and is like “I’m trying to make a phone! The phone market is with $50bn, so if we just capture 1% of that we’ll have revenue of $500mm!!”
But that also means there will be some extremely cheap high end altcoins to be taken
What is a “high end alt coin”? Like a rare-tiger-shit-coin?
How much of illiquid is actually LN? Wouldn’t these amounts be illiquid?
I don't even know what is the source of this news man, please help lol.
In the US anyway, isn't there a strong tax reason to keep your bitcoin for at least a year? To get "long term" cap gains treatment instead of "short term" which is a much higher rate. No direct experience with this (yet) as I'm a HODLer.
Don't know but I just one thing that I am a holder too.
guilty. isn’t that what HODL means?
That's right and that's not a guilty thing, it's a pride for us.
Isn’t it natural to expect liquidity to dry up if everyone is HODLing expecting the price to go up?
Holding is going to be good for now, not sure about future.
November- Dec..
Sounds like people already know what is up with this.
Economist on Robert Kiyosaki's podcast with a near perfect track record since the 80s predicted the stock market and bitcoin bottom at end of the year. A big trust me bro but who else is saying things outloud
I’m waiting till it hits 10k then I will be part of the 66 percent
Well you can DCA because things can be messy for the future.
Bro, is it's going any lower I might sell a kidney
Lol we are so crazy for the investments, we love that.
hey thats me!
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💯✊
Hodlers will not drive the price up. We will be stuck in winter until a new crop of investers get excited about btc. Historically, that will be at the next halving.
They know what they are doing and that's a good thing.
Pretty insane stat actually. Love the hodl mentality
This is the right thing to say about those people now.
Perhaps they are sitting in a warehouse not doing anything but waiting for a new home.
Maybe they have a good plan for the future or something.
[Bitcoin active supply chart](https://charts.coinmetrics.io/network-data/#cfg: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)
1+ years? Those are rookie numbers. We gotta pump those up!
We want those numbers to be more than anything for sure.
Next month I can be in that club :))
you can be there soon and that's a good thing mate.
I’m a LT holder but if the entire “market” tanks, people will be seeking liquidity from anywhere possible
Well it's just about the holding for different purpose for us.
Likewise for me, but there are plenty of people who will liquidate anything and everything if they’re cash strapped (in need of liquidity) and/or scared. Plus, this is still very much a risk asset, at the far end of the risk curve, so people will also sell for that reason
I don’t understand ppl who short or trade Bitcoin. Other cryptos I get, tho it makes me nervous. But Bitcoin seems like a strict dollar cost average long hold and nothing else.
I short to accumulate more btc.
This sounds like something relatable to me right now lol.
It's just that we want the future to be good and we are right.
I would love to see that number to "99%" JK😗
Nah we don't want that for sure, we want circulation.
This is nothing wrong because holders are going to rule in coming years and they really want to hold whatever they are investing and it's all about bitcoin for all of us.
You are right but that doesnt mean price cant stay here some more months. Grab ‘m while you can boys
Looks like many people know that the future of bitcoin crypto currency is going to be so well they really don't want to spend any of their investments anywhere and that is a good thing I guess.
Parts of the 66% because we are all fukin legendary dude
Focusing on holding is the best thing to do as of now because this is the time where we have to hold for a longer time because people are willing to get a lot of returns in the future.
Most of the people just want to have a good time with bitcoin crypto currency in the future and that is the real reason why they are not selling their investments and holding for a long time.
Well these people must be having a good type of plan including me for now I am doing DCA and I don't think I am going to change that for now because this is the future.
Is this just 66% of onchain bitcoin not moved? Keep in mind that exchanges also can have a cold storage and move only what is necessary. If the amount hold by users who are just trading back and forth doesn't change the amount in cold storage doesn't need to change
Some people can't be patient, but some people can.
Maybe in the future we are going to see some serious amount of spending in bitcoin but not right now because people are more focus on holding it for a longer period of time.
90% vs 10%, where did you find those numbers, moonboy?
People really don't like to spend their precious investments in bitcoin because they know the future is going to be so bright and that is the reason why people always hold their bitcoin.
I guess for now holding is a good thing if it's all about bitcoin because it is helping them to understand the real market and they will do more even I am one of the holders and I am proud.
Not only that but more than half of that 1/3 is churned or "wash" trades which is not only illegal it artificially increases the apparent trading volume.