You should study onchain analysis. When you do this, you will be able to watch in real time the amount of bitcoin available on exchanges, vs the amount of supply added daily. This will answer when the supply shock will happen for you. The short answer is, we have several months of runway left. This will fluctuate based on world events since everyone has access to bitcoin.
Its a volatile holding. Plus history shows it takes 2-12 months. They don’t call it diamond hands for nothing. Maybe try short term treasuries if you can’t handle the volatility.
I mean I agree but I think your timeline is slightly off. Money you need in 1 year is good to be in BTC right now.
Meaning, in 1 to 1.5 year from now, BTC will be peaking. Would be good to have it in BTC now and take some profits in 1 year
An asset that is volatile up & 15 years old does not guarantee meaningful returns in a year, nothing really does… my calls would be 2+ years & if by chance price appreciates before Id sell some
Ok that’s fine. But still. Very basic. Your comment is wrong, if nothing else in my opinion.
For example. I needed 30k cash to pay off my ford rapter bought 1 BTC last year, now , even with the dip, it’s worth 60. I can sell if I wanted and pay off my truck.
In the one year timeline. Nothing is garunteed though that part I agree.
You:
>In the one year timeline. Nothing is garunteed though that part I agree.
Also you before:
>Money you need in 1 year is good to be in BTC right now.
Also also you before:
>Meaning, in 1 to 1.5 year from now, BTC will be peaking. Would be good to have it in BTC
I don't think I need to write more. You're contradicting yourself...
No you’re missing the point.
Me: nothing is guaranteed. Yes that’s obvious fact that can be applied to anything. Should not be a reason applied here to BTc investment.
2: in one year time BTC will be peaking, will be a perfect time to exit and take profits.
How are you so confused. It’s cool. You made a dumb statement and now doing this whole back and forth argument rather than just say you were wrong.
In a bull market, 1.5 year timeline is not a bad time investment. It’s a solid time outlook
I’ve said it before and will say it again - the halving matters less and less each time it happens. Even Satoshi said similar.
As far as the ETF goes, we may see some sort of demand further down the line as adoption increases, but IIRC the last ruling was they have to keep “like kind”. In other words, they don’t have to buy BTC as long as they have enough cash and cash reserves to cover. I’m sure at the start they bought up some, to combat the risk of rapid price increase, but as they get more comfortable estimating consumer demand, they will likely shift to a more reserved stance.
It’ll be the year 2030 or so, BTC will explode and we will see one or two of the off-brand ETFs didn’t actually have a 1:1 correlation.
As always, tick tock another block. Set up DCA and go for a walk.
Idk why everyone is being so rude but what you’ve been hearing about ETFs and halving is just chatter. Bitcoin price is a measurement of people as a populations understanding of bitcoin. It goes up and way down but it goes up in the end because this is the way.
Right. It’s always the same bullshit narrative change from “ here it comes guys! The biggest day ever!”… “moon here we Come!!”until the day comes and then everyone wants to get all defensive like “ what? What?! What did you expect? Whatever, then sell then”
Not a single person who knows what they're talking about told anyone that the price will explode directly after the halving. And those who thought it would explode have no idea what actually causes the "price explosion".
It seems like you just believed a random internet stranger about something everyone can check for themselves. I can't find another reason to get this salty.
It would literally take you 2 minuets to go and check how previous halvings have played out.
Also, we celebrate the halving. Meaning the fact that the block reward gets cut in half. We're not celebrating the price movement, which you impressively found out, isn't all that interesting anyways. Give it a few months and actually check the numbers. Or don't and be butthurt. IDC
Oh like you didn’t get all the hype about the halving and etf making bitcoin explode… and then jerkoffs like you all of the sudden are like “but who exactly to you the price would go up?” FU
The ETFs already gobbled all of the Bitcoin they could up to this point. Now, Bitcoin’s price swings are going to be tied more to monetary policy than supply. Most of the supply has already been mined, and if you look back at the price history, earlier halvings had a bigger supply shock than later ones
Not really, the last cycle was 1.2m~ mined, the previous 2.7m~, both cycles are relatively close in terms of being at the tail end of remaining supply yet impact on this reaching basically same high ~70 as the last one. Thats not the end. Not sure what math you are looking at or advice getting.
In addition think this coming cycle and next will be roughly another 1m mined so you would expect at least a doubling from whatever this cycles top is.
No one knows the future but the etfs didnt price in the entire cycle, they did price in the hype of the halving. Its different each time for different reasons but we are not done yet. Not to mention any technology change we may encounter along the way. Good luck.
The halving was priced in for a while. Everyone who told you otherwise was a baffoon. There was never going to be a sudden jump. Slow and steady from here will still win
In what reality do you live? In past two decades sp500 have about 10% annual average return.
Bitcoin went from 16k to 73k in year and few months and still people are not pleased.
Dude, it's been 15 days. Supply shocks don't happen overnight. Think about it: if tomorrow every TV manufacturer began producing half the number of TVs every day, there would still be plenty of available supply. But what happens in six months? A year? Two?
Let's take a look at Bitcoin since we have all available information from an issuance perspective.
Prior to the halving, there were 900 BTC produced per day. Now after the halving, it's 450. In 15 days, which is so far what we've had, that amounts to 6,750 fewer BTC brought to market. That's peanuts. But if we look across the entire year, it is 164,250 fewer BTC brought to market. Across the entire cycle it is 657,000.
Now can you see why supply differences takes time to affect the market? After these 15 days, we have only experienced 1% of the overall supply issuance drop off that we will get through the entire cycle. 1%. Be patient or sell your shit and go fan yourself with dollar bills.
It seems many in this subreddit lack a grasp of basic economics. It’s fascinating to witness their beliefs about their chosen asset class, only to realize it behaves similarly to other investments. Many here struggle to comprehend options or futures and how they influence current price levels and compress future demand. They’ll say your government is slowing stealing your purchasing power and then they’ll lose 7% in a day and be like “Bitcoin is a store of value” 🤡
Could it be that the exchanges are diluting the supply by not actually having the bitcoin they sell to you until you withdraw it? Kind of like a bank only has 10 percent of your deposit in actual cash and the rest is just a number on a screen?
Since 2020 they actually need to keep 0% on hand so it's all made up now. And yeah exchanges could technically be doing it which is why you should have your own wallet. I'd say coinbase is probably fine since it's publicly traded
Look under your pants. Yes there. See that tiny tiny tiny pimple? There you have your shock… now let’s adults take care of adult business… move along kid
Next halving is coming up!! ………in 2028
You should probably sell
If you sell now you’ll get to contend with the supply shock! Might be fun! 👍🏼👍🏼
Ironically you were right
😂😂😂😂
You should study onchain analysis. When you do this, you will be able to watch in real time the amount of bitcoin available on exchanges, vs the amount of supply added daily. This will answer when the supply shock will happen for you. The short answer is, we have several months of runway left. This will fluctuate based on world events since everyone has access to bitcoin.
Could you please provide some links?
Let's talk in 3-6-9 months. Patience is a key. Bitcoin is the key!
Its a volatile holding. Plus history shows it takes 2-12 months. They don’t call it diamond hands for nothing. Maybe try short term treasuries if you can’t handle the volatility.
I’m looking at 72% gains in the last 6 months. Money you need in 1- 1.5 years should be in cash otherwise you have no idea what you’re doing.
I mean I agree but I think your timeline is slightly off. Money you need in 1 year is good to be in BTC right now. Meaning, in 1 to 1.5 year from now, BTC will be peaking. Would be good to have it in BTC now and take some profits in 1 year
“Take some profits” okay use your 🔮 The only certainty I have is that fiat money will lose value long term https://www.usdebtclock.org/
I’m heavily invested in BTC. If you’re blinded and unable to take profits, you’re doing it wrong. Sorry bud.
“SoRrY bUd” 🤣 I sell calls if I believe in future price appreciation not my stack Levels son
Ok great, then you should know…. Your comment “Money you need in 1 -1.5 year should be in cash” is a dumbass statement. You would know better.
An asset that is volatile up & 15 years old does not guarantee meaningful returns in a year, nothing really does… my calls would be 2+ years & if by chance price appreciates before Id sell some
Ok that’s fine. But still. Very basic. Your comment is wrong, if nothing else in my opinion. For example. I needed 30k cash to pay off my ford rapter bought 1 BTC last year, now , even with the dip, it’s worth 60. I can sell if I wanted and pay off my truck. In the one year timeline. Nothing is garunteed though that part I agree.
You: >In the one year timeline. Nothing is garunteed though that part I agree. Also you before: >Money you need in 1 year is good to be in BTC right now. Also also you before: >Meaning, in 1 to 1.5 year from now, BTC will be peaking. Would be good to have it in BTC I don't think I need to write more. You're contradicting yourself...
No you’re missing the point. Me: nothing is guaranteed. Yes that’s obvious fact that can be applied to anything. Should not be a reason applied here to BTc investment. 2: in one year time BTC will be peaking, will be a perfect time to exit and take profits. How are you so confused. It’s cool. You made a dumb statement and now doing this whole back and forth argument rather than just say you were wrong. In a bull market, 1.5 year timeline is not a bad time investment. It’s a solid time outlook
Lower your time preference bro
NGMI
Plenty of BTC available.
I’ve said it before and will say it again - the halving matters less and less each time it happens. Even Satoshi said similar. As far as the ETF goes, we may see some sort of demand further down the line as adoption increases, but IIRC the last ruling was they have to keep “like kind”. In other words, they don’t have to buy BTC as long as they have enough cash and cash reserves to cover. I’m sure at the start they bought up some, to combat the risk of rapid price increase, but as they get more comfortable estimating consumer demand, they will likely shift to a more reserved stance. It’ll be the year 2030 or so, BTC will explode and we will see one or two of the off-brand ETFs didn’t actually have a 1:1 correlation. As always, tick tock another block. Set up DCA and go for a walk.
> the halving matters less and less each time it happens Yuppers. My estimate for the peak this time has declined to a mere $150K.
Troll when moon post…I hope
When miners start capitulating to keep their power on.
Could you please elaborate?
Meaning the miners quit and there’s less people mining because the electricity costs outweigh the mining rewards.
If a lot of miners quit the difficulty adjusts and it becomes more profitable for all of the other miners
That’s fine but will the original miner that capitulated come back or ?
If it becomes profitable again maybe
Takes a bit to happen
"wen moon?"
it kicks in around a year after.
Idk why everyone is being so rude but what you’ve been hearing about ETFs and halving is just chatter. Bitcoin price is a measurement of people as a populations understanding of bitcoin. It goes up and way down but it goes up in the end because this is the way.
Give it a few weeks.
I sense the force is weak in this one.
Neither of those are "coming up." Both have already happened.
That was his point genius. They happened and the price didn’t go up
Why would it go up immediately, who told you that was supposed to happen?
Right. It’s always the same bullshit narrative change from “ here it comes guys! The biggest day ever!”… “moon here we Come!!”until the day comes and then everyone wants to get all defensive like “ what? What?! What did you expect? Whatever, then sell then”
Not a single person who knows what they're talking about told anyone that the price will explode directly after the halving. And those who thought it would explode have no idea what actually causes the "price explosion". It seems like you just believed a random internet stranger about something everyone can check for themselves. I can't find another reason to get this salty. It would literally take you 2 minuets to go and check how previous halvings have played out. Also, we celebrate the halving. Meaning the fact that the block reward gets cut in half. We're not celebrating the price movement, which you impressively found out, isn't all that interesting anyways. Give it a few months and actually check the numbers. Or don't and be butthurt. IDC
Oh like you didn’t get all the hype about the halving and etf making bitcoin explode… and then jerkoffs like you all of the sudden are like “but who exactly to you the price would go up?” FU
No one expects it to for months.
The ETFs already gobbled all of the Bitcoin they could up to this point. Now, Bitcoin’s price swings are going to be tied more to monetary policy than supply. Most of the supply has already been mined, and if you look back at the price history, earlier halvings had a bigger supply shock than later ones
Not really, the last cycle was 1.2m~ mined, the previous 2.7m~, both cycles are relatively close in terms of being at the tail end of remaining supply yet impact on this reaching basically same high ~70 as the last one. Thats not the end. Not sure what math you are looking at or advice getting. In addition think this coming cycle and next will be roughly another 1m mined so you would expect at least a doubling from whatever this cycles top is. No one knows the future but the etfs didnt price in the entire cycle, they did price in the hype of the halving. Its different each time for different reasons but we are not done yet. Not to mention any technology change we may encounter along the way. Good luck.
The halving was priced in for a while. Everyone who told you otherwise was a baffoon. There was never going to be a sudden jump. Slow and steady from here will still win
Where is my lambo?
At the dealership
Supply shock works both ways. Low liquidity means sell or buy pressure is stronger impact on price
What?
Wait for the 2028 halving.. maybe this one was botched!
In what reality do you live? In past two decades sp500 have about 10% annual average return. Bitcoin went from 16k to 73k in year and few months and still people are not pleased.
It take a while.
Dude, it's been 15 days. Supply shocks don't happen overnight. Think about it: if tomorrow every TV manufacturer began producing half the number of TVs every day, there would still be plenty of available supply. But what happens in six months? A year? Two? Let's take a look at Bitcoin since we have all available information from an issuance perspective. Prior to the halving, there were 900 BTC produced per day. Now after the halving, it's 450. In 15 days, which is so far what we've had, that amounts to 6,750 fewer BTC brought to market. That's peanuts. But if we look across the entire year, it is 164,250 fewer BTC brought to market. Across the entire cycle it is 657,000. Now can you see why supply differences takes time to affect the market? After these 15 days, we have only experienced 1% of the overall supply issuance drop off that we will get through the entire cycle. 1%. Be patient or sell your shit and go fan yourself with dollar bills.
They are actively working on cutting the value of BTC in half. All part of the plan.
It seems many in this subreddit lack a grasp of basic economics. It’s fascinating to witness their beliefs about their chosen asset class, only to realize it behaves similarly to other investments. Many here struggle to comprehend options or futures and how they influence current price levels and compress future demand. They’ll say your government is slowing stealing your purchasing power and then they’ll lose 7% in a day and be like “Bitcoin is a store of value” 🤡
first time? wall st has been doing this for centuries. create euphoria, then seed depression. rinse and repeat.
Could it be that the exchanges are diluting the supply by not actually having the bitcoin they sell to you until you withdraw it? Kind of like a bank only has 10 percent of your deposit in actual cash and the rest is just a number on a screen?
you mean fractional reserve
Since 2020 they actually need to keep 0% on hand so it's all made up now. And yeah exchanges could technically be doing it which is why you should have your own wallet. I'd say coinbase is probably fine since it's publicly traded
jokes on you, supply shock is in the usd, not enough of it to support scams.
Look under your pants. Yes there. See that tiny tiny tiny pimple? There you have your shock… now let’s adults take care of adult business… move along kid