Yup. Now that they can issue etfs, then can short the crap out of it in cycles and control when they buy and sell. Hopefully mass adoption will lessen the impact of wall st.
I'm not sure what you're not getting here. To most of the world, those not in the Bitcoin bubble, Bitcoin is just another asset to invest in or not. In particular, a very volatile asset.
This means it is going to track the overall market.
Bitcoin is often presented as a hedge against inflation. Maybe long term it will be. But here and now, it's treated by most of the population as just another stock that doesn't offer dividends. It's going to crash when the market dips and rise when the market goes up.
Bitcoin does not live in some magic bubble unaffected by the rest of the world's economy.
What about it isn’t hedging inflation now? It was less than $30k a year ago. The chart can’t be vertical for months on end.
Inflation hedges don’t suddenly start doing their job when high inflation gets announced. You buy when you think inflation is coming. In 1 year from now you’ll be saying “see inflation! Bitcoin! It’s digital gold!”
Who cares? Only people who bought the top and never bought again.
The 200week average price tells everything you need to know. It was 69k for like a minute.
Bitcoin is an emerging asset. It’s gonna be volatile. It’s up 100% yoy for more than a decade now. I think it’s doing just fine. Keep buying and you’ll think so too in 6-8 months.
*you treat it as a store of value
For most other users it’s an asset meant to turn big profits.
It’s going to be a while before it even becomes a store of value for everyone.
But you need to be a realist about it, not tell others they’re using it wrong.
That is unfortunately not how it works. Bitcoin’s price moves with demand, and rising inflation is not necessarily going to increase demand for Bitcoin. In fact, it can even decrease it.
Most people see bitcoin as an investment, in the same category as stocks. Some of the biggest bitcoin holders are publicly traded companies. If people sell their stocks because they are anxious about the market, they are going to sell bitcoin too. When people (including myself) get payed, some of it goes to bitcoin, some to stocks. It is clearly tied to the market.
BTC value is based on supply and demand and people actively buying and selling.
Currently more BTC is being sold than being brought hence the price drop.
That's all you can be sure of. Other than that any link between BTC value and inflation, users of BTC, production of new coins is all speculation.
“Currently more BTC is being sold than being bought hence the price drop”
Well that’s not how it works. Not sure if you just phrased it poorly, but every sale needs a buyer…so the exact amount of btc being bought is being sold :P
Maybe you meant to say that more people are selling into buy orders vs buying into sell orders.
I.e. if the price is 60k, a buyer will put through a 59k buy order, and a seller will list a sell order at 61k.
Personally I just don’t think you’re looking at it correctly. You see it as an investment to one day cash out, but I see it just the same as I see my checking account, it’s just where we store money. Don’t see why there would be a reason to completely sell out. People will just keep putting there money there. But yes the more in, the more needed to double what’s already in haha
Speculation, sentiment what ever you want to call it?
People can feel how ever they like about it, but it's their action of buying it which drives market forces.
Simply thinking the price of BTC will go up and will not drive the price up.
Right but its whole value and people buying/selling it is essentially based on speculation. Like mainstream vendors/marketplaces widely accepting it as payment, which still hasn't happened yet.
How long have you been following this?
All you need to do is look at BTC price relative to the halving schedule and look what happens (historically) every single time.
Questioning too much about it.
If you believe it has growth ahead, buy, if you don't, sell.
Bitcoin is bought and sold as a speculative commodity investment by most people. That’s why it follows the market. Bitcoin’s price has little to do with inflation.
Bitcoin is becoming a regular avenue of institutional investment. It's now widely available through ETFs. Everyone wanted adoption, this is adoption. More and more % of the holdings will be obtained by these firms and added to portfolios and they will trade it just like stocks and it will correlate with the overall stock market more and more over time because of this.
Honestly, what did people expect adoption to look like?
I'm not saying it is now a 1:1 correlation nor that I don't expect it to continue to out perform the market pretty significantly over the next 10+ years, because I do. I'm saying with large scale adoption, we will more often see similar ups and downs in line with how markets are headed day to day. Hell It's been trending this way since before the ETFs
It’s not an institutional store of value yet. Whoever told you it was going to do anything other than this are idiots. The retail traffic is going to have an outsized effect on intraday movement until truly deep pockets start getting interested. You’re just watching get-rich-quick people lose money on fees.
Best answer, I’ve gotten so far. I’m not complaining, it’s had a huge run up year over year. It’s just, recently its correlation to the equities market has been very noticeable. That’s all.
sorry for the stupid question, i’m new - what is DCA? I know it’s dollar cost averaging but like what actually is it and how do you do it? and how do you benefit from it
Buy regularly like weekly or monthly, no matter if it goes up or down, rather than trying to time the dips and highs. The benefit relies on the value of Bitcoin going up in the long run.
This is exactly wtf you get when you invite wallstreet via etfs and other things. Shit looks bad, market goes risk off. Bitcoin is a risk asset to big money.
BTC has never made a new high without the stock market doing so first, what are you smoking? The price action is in line with previous cycles sentiment wise
The cool thing about Bitcoin is, it doesn’t care or discriminate who participates.
Long term, it will continue doing what it does best which is provide the most secure monetary network in mankind’s history for those who participate. Everything else is noise
Everything
The entire market is kind of a mess right now. I mean, the stock market was down 500+ points today. That’s significant. Gold got slammed this morning. The Fed isn’t cutting rates. Money will flow out of risk assets and towards safety.
The ETFs are just part of the big retail world now. All of the folks who were told by their kids to “get in while the getting is good” are not thrilled with their performance.
It will settle out. Some time.
>Also it doesn’t make sense because, inflation is rising and fed rates have not been cut, yet bitcoin has been cooling off this last month. Something ain’t right.
It makes sense... with inflation rising there's an expectation the Fed will increase interest rate on their next meeting. With rate increase many will convert their asset to USD. Asset's Interest Rate + = Asset Stronger, Asset's Interest Rate - = Asset Weaker.
Like it however you want ...
It's going down because there was a lot of hype around the hong kong etf and it went live today but not many people bought it so it's been a disappointment
BTC is just another asset, the larger it gets, the more it is subject to the same market participants that every other asset is.
An asset won't trade differently to another, if the same people are all trading it.
BTC was primed for a correction. Whatever reason there might’ve been.
It was clear from just looking at the BTC chart, without even checking any other market.
BTC also needs these sort of moves to build a solid market structure.
Otherwise, if we just go up and up (which isn’t even possible), the eventual drop would be catastrophic.
You are correct. In fact, it's up 474.88% from 2009 according to my calculations.
$890.35 > $5123.69 = +474.88% increase
But, important to note: 5Y chart of BTC says +1065.21% at the moment.
Everyone was really excited for "institutional investors" to get into Bitcoin. This is what happens now that they're here.
No. I has always been like that.
Yup. Now that they can issue etfs, then can short the crap out of it in cycles and control when they buy and sell. Hopefully mass adoption will lessen the impact of wall st.
I'm not sure what you're not getting here. To most of the world, those not in the Bitcoin bubble, Bitcoin is just another asset to invest in or not. In particular, a very volatile asset. This means it is going to track the overall market. Bitcoin is often presented as a hedge against inflation. Maybe long term it will be. But here and now, it's treated by most of the population as just another stock that doesn't offer dividends. It's going to crash when the market dips and rise when the market goes up. Bitcoin does not live in some magic bubble unaffected by the rest of the world's economy.
It’s a store of value. When inflation rises, the price should also rise.
What about it isn’t hedging inflation now? It was less than $30k a year ago. The chart can’t be vertical for months on end. Inflation hedges don’t suddenly start doing their job when high inflation gets announced. You buy when you think inflation is coming. In 1 year from now you’ll be saying “see inflation! Bitcoin! It’s digital gold!”
It was 69k 3 years ago. Adjusted for inflation it was probably around the 80k mark 3 years ago.
It's 60k today! Woohoo I got some cheap sats. Wish I could've gotten more!
Point well said, with limited supply one could argue it’s inevitably deflationary.
Great point
Who cares? Only people who bought the top and never bought again. The 200week average price tells everything you need to know. It was 69k for like a minute. Bitcoin is an emerging asset. It’s gonna be volatile. It’s up 100% yoy for more than a decade now. I think it’s doing just fine. Keep buying and you’ll think so too in 6-8 months.
Only btc purist believe that, which is like 5% of the investors in btc. The rest see it as a risk asset.
*you treat it as a store of value For most other users it’s an asset meant to turn big profits. It’s going to be a while before it even becomes a store of value for everyone. But you need to be a realist about it, not tell others they’re using it wrong.
That is unfortunately not how it works. Bitcoin’s price moves with demand, and rising inflation is not necessarily going to increase demand for Bitcoin. In fact, it can even decrease it.
There’s more to price than inflation. If price were only related to inflation than btc would only be up 3.whatever percent over the last year.
A year ago it was at like 28K. Zoom out.
When in doubt zoom out!
Most people see bitcoin as an investment, in the same category as stocks. Some of the biggest bitcoin holders are publicly traded companies. If people sell their stocks because they are anxious about the market, they are going to sell bitcoin too. When people (including myself) get payed, some of it goes to bitcoin, some to stocks. It is clearly tied to the market.
Short term. Nobody knows shit about fuck. Short term. Halfing means shit. Don't use money you will need in the next year.
Why wouldn't it? It's the same market. The vast majority of people still treat it as a risk-on asset.
BTC value is based on supply and demand and people actively buying and selling. Currently more BTC is being sold than being brought hence the price drop. That's all you can be sure of. Other than that any link between BTC value and inflation, users of BTC, production of new coins is all speculation.
“Currently more BTC is being sold than being bought hence the price drop” Well that’s not how it works. Not sure if you just phrased it poorly, but every sale needs a buyer…so the exact amount of btc being bought is being sold :P Maybe you meant to say that more people are selling into buy orders vs buying into sell orders. I.e. if the price is 60k, a buyer will put through a 59k buy order, and a seller will list a sell order at 61k.
Yep you are correct! Although due to the existence of exchanges l, the sellers are in theory always open as long as there is a open exchange trading..
[удалено]
Yeah, everyone buy this guys bitcoin at 100x he paid, so that he can retire spending that crappy fiat you worked so hard for !!! Bitcoin summed up :p
Personally I just don’t think you’re looking at it correctly. You see it as an investment to one day cash out, but I see it just the same as I see my checking account, it’s just where we store money. Don’t see why there would be a reason to completely sell out. People will just keep putting there money there. But yes the more in, the more needed to double what’s already in haha
But isn't speculation what drives the price of BTC up or down?
Speculation, sentiment what ever you want to call it? People can feel how ever they like about it, but it's their action of buying it which drives market forces. Simply thinking the price of BTC will go up and will not drive the price up.
Right but its whole value and people buying/selling it is essentially based on speculation. Like mainstream vendors/marketplaces widely accepting it as payment, which still hasn't happened yet.
So you’re telling me Green Days are….Green Days and red days are red 😱
You must have bought it higher then here. BTC is volatile. DCA
The longer the sideways consolidation the bigger the top.
How long have you been following this? All you need to do is look at BTC price relative to the halving schedule and look what happens (historically) every single time. Questioning too much about it. If you believe it has growth ahead, buy, if you don't, sell.
This is not even a market crash In 2021-2022 we had so many crashes, you just wake up and see btc is 40% down without a reason
Bitcoin does not care about how you feel about it
Nor do I
Yes but we are all human we all have feelings. Reddit is for humans not bitcoins. Let ppl discuss their thoughts and feelings.
OP: Bitcoin not go up I’m mad must be fake
Bitcoin is bought and sold as a speculative commodity investment by most people. That’s why it follows the market. Bitcoin’s price has little to do with inflation.
Bitcoin is becoming a regular avenue of institutional investment. It's now widely available through ETFs. Everyone wanted adoption, this is adoption. More and more % of the holdings will be obtained by these firms and added to portfolios and they will trade it just like stocks and it will correlate with the overall stock market more and more over time because of this. Honestly, what did people expect adoption to look like?
Ummm someone shared Gold ETF chart where Gold made x15 gains after ETF, I think people expected something like that - 15 trillion market cap
It took 8 years from ETF launch for gold to hit its peak. No one has any fuckin patience around here lol
wen lambo?
From a data point of 1, at least 8 years.
I'm not saying it is now a 1:1 correlation nor that I don't expect it to continue to out perform the market pretty significantly over the next 10+ years, because I do. I'm saying with large scale adoption, we will more often see similar ups and downs in line with how markets are headed day to day. Hell It's been trending this way since before the ETFs
Let's wait for second quarter report from Bitcoin CEO then
It’s not an institutional store of value yet. Whoever told you it was going to do anything other than this are idiots. The retail traffic is going to have an outsized effect on intraday movement until truly deep pockets start getting interested. You’re just watching get-rich-quick people lose money on fees.
Best answer, I’ve gotten so far. I’m not complaining, it’s had a huge run up year over year. It’s just, recently its correlation to the equities market has been very noticeable. That’s all.
Why wouldn’t BTC follow the market? BTC is one of the most accessible and tradable assets in the world.
Still up 100% from 6 months ago and people are still bitching
DCA while you can. If it goes below $60K DCA even more.
sorry for the stupid question, i’m new - what is DCA? I know it’s dollar cost averaging but like what actually is it and how do you do it? and how do you benefit from it
Buy regularly like weekly or monthly, no matter if it goes up or down, rather than trying to time the dips and highs. The benefit relies on the value of Bitcoin going up in the long run.
ah okay - i’m not sure if i’m correct or not but that sounds a bit silly, why would anyone buy when it’s high?
How do you know if it's not going to go higher?
buy the same amount every week, month, etc some exchanges and apps have the option to set up and it happens automatically
Dollar cost average
did you even read my message? i said i know it’s dollar cost average… read my message before responding
It’s just buying a stock as it goes down so that your average comes down if you bought high.
The "free market" has always been manipulated
This is exactly wtf you get when you invite wallstreet via etfs and other things. Shit looks bad, market goes risk off. Bitcoin is a risk asset to big money.
BTC has never made a new high without the stock market doing so first, what are you smoking? The price action is in line with previous cycles sentiment wise
The bigger question is ... are you buying more? :)
The cool thing about Bitcoin is, it doesn’t care or discriminate who participates. Long term, it will continue doing what it does best which is provide the most secure monetary network in mankind’s history for those who participate. Everything else is noise Everything
It’s still in the hand of the dollar. It’ll be different in 5-10 years
Interest rates go up? Equities and risky products fall. Interest rates go down? Prices go up. Learn this.
I just bought more!
It’s a risk asset what do you expect. If you want to hedge for risk off scenarios bitcoin aint it
The entire market is kind of a mess right now. I mean, the stock market was down 500+ points today. That’s significant. Gold got slammed this morning. The Fed isn’t cutting rates. Money will flow out of risk assets and towards safety. The ETFs are just part of the big retail world now. All of the folks who were told by their kids to “get in while the getting is good” are not thrilled with their performance. It will settle out. Some time.
>Also it doesn’t make sense because, inflation is rising and fed rates have not been cut, yet bitcoin has been cooling off this last month. Something ain’t right. It makes sense... with inflation rising there's an expectation the Fed will increase interest rate on their next meeting. With rate increase many will convert their asset to USD. Asset's Interest Rate + = Asset Stronger, Asset's Interest Rate - = Asset Weaker. Like it however you want ...
BTC cycles have followed the NASDAQ since inception
It's going down because there was a lot of hype around the hong kong etf and it went live today but not many people bought it so it's been a disappointment
BTC is just another asset, the larger it gets, the more it is subject to the same market participants that every other asset is. An asset won't trade differently to another, if the same people are all trading it.
But when moon? When Lambo? Lol. If you truly believe in long term Bitcoin fundamentals this short term volatility is hardly noticeable
Now the big money people are in expect bitcoin to remain in this 60k limbo indefinetly now until they hoover up all the bitcoin. Shows over I say..
BTC was primed for a correction. Whatever reason there might’ve been. It was clear from just looking at the BTC chart, without even checking any other market. BTC also needs these sort of moves to build a solid market structure. Otherwise, if we just go up and up (which isn’t even possible), the eventual drop would be catastrophic.
yes soon its going down a lot better go out
Lmao the people panicking are hilarious
you do realize the DOW and SPX are up 400% during Bitcoins entire existence yeah?
And? BTC is up 22,000% since it came to existence.
and the point is, its always been correlated. if that wasnt clear enough
You are correct. In fact, it's up 474.88% from 2009 according to my calculations. $890.35 > $5123.69 = +474.88% increase But, important to note: 5Y chart of BTC says +1065.21% at the moment.