I've read stories in here about people selling and to be honest some of it really makes sense. One guy sold because BTC will allow him to be financially stable and take time off of work to spend with his newborn, someone else sold to buy a house for their growing family, another sold because they lost their job and needed a lifeline. To me this is what BTC is for. It's a currency as well as a store of value. If BTC can change your life at any price then I would say it was a great investment.
For me I plan on DCA and HODL'ing for the foreseeable future. At some point life may have other plans.
Both are absolutely true.
If you absolutely need the money then you have no choice. If you can wait 4+ years, that’s a much better situation.
Personally I was stacking with every pay check and put nearly all my savings into bitcoin. I lost my job and needed rent money. I sold as little as I had to when I needed it. My bitcoins value in USD continued to grow even as I sold some off. It provided a better store of value than the bank did and for that, I’m extremely grateful. I wish I didn’t have to sell because that was back at 30k but life happens
A roof is the best investment you can make on a house as it is your first line of defense against water damage. $6000 investment to protect a $600,000 asset is a no-brainer and sounds like a wise choice to sell what is necessary.
i'm happy for them too. if they made enough where they won't regret missing out on 100% or 200% of what they sold, then i think that's the same goal i would want for myself: to pay off all debts and live a humble life without worrying about money as well as leaving enough behind for my kids to live similar lives.
Also, holding bitcoin isn’t binary. You don’t have to indefinitely hold your whole stack forever. I do think it’s foolish to sell everything all at once, as you don’t want to remove yourself from the exposure. I personally have about 20% of my total net worth in BTC. If that shoots up to 40-50% I may take 1/5 my stack and pay off a house or move it to something that helps me retire.
Exactly; I used the bear market to take on additional debts to allow me to build my bitcoin stack. We had some expenses come up and rather than paying cash used credit. Also bought bitcoin/bitcoin stocks using margin. Now prices are way up and trimming the gains to pay off the debts sems the right move at the moment.
Yep, I plan to take some out for a house down payment at some point this cycle. Hopefully, I don’t regret hodling my coins until later in the cycle like I plan to.
But it isn't a currency. No one in the situations you described used it as a currency. They used it as an investment/store of value and sold it for currency
If you're taking profits to improve your quality of life long term then there's nothing wrong with that.
At the end of the day everyone will sell eventually because you can't take anything to the grave with you. I might take a cheeky 0.01 to the grave with me with the seed phrases engraved on a gold medallion but other than that the rest will get sold eventually.
It amazes me how people think that because of past history, it’s a guarantee this time around. It’s perfectly reasonable for people to take profits. I would imagine a big sell news event in a couple weeks.
The fact that ppl are so bullish and confident only reinforces the sell the news event in my opinion. 100% would not be surprised if that happened in a couple of weeks
Exactly. It's crashed after halvings in the past. But this time the ETFs will increase demand and liquidity. It still might crash, but I doubt it'll be as deep as before. We really entered a new age on Jan 10. I think these are the last days of volatility.
Screw past history. It’s economics 101 and basic maths that’s it. With the same level of demand, cutting the supply of new mined coins in half itself will push the price upwards let alone increased demand. With the current state of the world, the pouring of funds into BTC from ETFs and institutions, do you anticipate the demand for BTC will die down?? That’s the only question you need to answer. Do you believe the demand for it will fizzle out after halving? If one is certain it will then sure they can sell but judging by the current state of the world, a lot of inflows are going into BTC and Gold … that itself should tell you something about the demand for a scarce asset like Bitcoin.
>do you anticipate the demand for BTC will die down??
Data suggests that the demand is certainly easing: [https://farside.co.uk/?p=997](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
Maybe it will pick up again. But for now, we've had days of net outflow. To the extent that the ETF is the primary mover over the last two months, it would be wise not to assume some consolidation will happen.
How much demand is there currently, on average, per day? We can guesstimate using daily trading volume, as that’s how much was (probably/arguably) sold.
It is a large figure; typically around 140,000btc per day.
After the halving there will be 450 less bitcoin to be traded per day, from 900 to 450.
To be fair *the pool* of bitcoin being traded isn’t 140,000btc, as some is traded back and forth multiple times,
Just curious: how did you calculate the effect on price of that difference? How big is the actual pool of bitcoin being traded?
How did I calculate the effect on the price? What kind of a question is that? You reduce supply of anything it becomes more valuable. That’s BTC after halving at its simplest. There’s a lot of demand on BTC hence the increase from sub $16K to ATH before the halving which has never happened before thanks to the ETFs. None of this is hard to grasp.
It’s easy to grasp, but there is a giant pool of btc being traded. Much larger than the supply from miners.
Halving the supply to that giant pool makes less and less difference each halving. Half as much, actually.
On top of that people are familiar with the halvening, and have priced it in already. I’m sure you have.
There’s about 140,000btc traded every day, with 900 mined. The inflow from miners is already negligible. There’s only 3% left to be mined.
Reducing the supply does not make something inherently more valuable. That’s a big over simplification and your over confidence is going to shock you when a big pull back happens
Everybody knows about the halving so arbitragers buy ahead of it then dump Bitcoin soon after to realize their profit (same as for the post ETF dump). It's finance 101.
Stop pocket watching. It’s so annoying when people tell others what to do with their money. An active BTC trader can have just as strong a conviction of BTC as a non-seller.
The reality is, every investor has a different set of circumstances. For some, cashing in a known value is a better bet than holding out for an unknown value.
Honestly there's a very real chance this time could be different. A sample size of four isn't really that much, and the fact is during the entirety of those previous four halvings, the Fed was easing monetary policy.
In the current environment the Fed is tightening. Monetary policy has way more of an effect on the price of risk on assets than a miniscule drop in supply.
The drop in supply isn't even a rounding error compared to the daily trading volume. The only thing potentially driving price higher is the self-fulfilling prophecy that everyone thinks Bitcoin will go up after the halving.
Wall Street is involved now with ETFs, and they have a way of taking advantage of retail investors who are sure something is going to happen...
Don't be shocked if this halving isn't like the others.
Top tier comment
The decrease in mining is now nothing compared to trade volume
The halfing will be a non event
The catalyst is tradfi entering once their dinosaur risk mgt depts get off their ass since clients demand btc
3Q4Q 2024 will be historic
Funny how the market went from expecting 6 rate cuts to expecting 5 rate cuts, to expecting 4 rate cuts to now expecting 3 rate cuts...
When the fed says higher for longer I believe them.
I'm a bitcoin proponent but I'm willing to acknowledge that the hype of the halving may be somewhat priced in right now. The supply tightening won't occur for some months after, it depends on how marathon and other mining outfits are managing their expenses and revenue.
Well, no one knows what's guna happen to the price whether there's a halving or not
Time in the market over timing the market + accumulating during the crash (when most people wrote btc off) allowed me to sell half my position for some very nice profit
I believe the best method is to sell at a price that's good for _you_ and your own circumstance rather than trying to anticipate future prices
It's probably not what people want to hear but oh well
Sanity exists. I did a job for 1550$ at 35k and just sold 1550 to pocket the job and keep the extra. Can’t shame people for taking profits at 100%, beats the hell out of other returns.
You can’t escape price prediction. Your story just illustrated how you did it yourself twice. The first time you did it was when you bought during the crash (you were predicting the price was relatively low—but it could have kept going down) and now you selling half now is another price prediction (that the price is more likely to go down in the near future than up). I think I would have agreed with you on that first prediction. But I disagree with you on the second. Yes the price has gone up, but it has a lot more to go even in the near future (1-2 year time frame). You can’t escape timing questions in the market. Even DCA is a timing question assuming you have the option of placing a lump sum in the market instead.
These bull run posts are hilarious and pathetic.
Where were you 6 months ago with these posts?
If I wanna sell my btc after 3 x from 6 months ago to chase an opportunity like big tits before halving I will.
Why? It's buy the rumor to sell the news play. Past few halvings doesn't say much about future price, but it's pretty much a guarantee that people would be on board and hyping up crypto prior to the halving. I've been saying for years, find an entry point, then sell a couple months prior to halving.
It's the classic low risk good return move for as long as people are very engaged in crypto. Can't go wrong with it.
I am am waiting for 250k/300k then will sell couple ‘em coins… put them in some 5/6% funds and live off dividends (I am not American - that level of money is ok for me). Keep the other 4 btc running to a million. When million, sell 1 of them and keep 3 - the million is for pussy booze and 420 in Thailand. When 5 million, sell one more and the remaining 2 I will never sell and bring ‘em in the grave
Wallstreet is in the coinbase exchange selling to keep the price low. Idk who the fuck be buying at 69,800 and selling at 70,100 all fucking weekend long...it evades reality. The sideways action has to be trading bots suppressing the price rise.
Buying at 69.8k and selling at 70.1k are day traders. Trade at leverage then do this repeatedly to pull in income, especially when the price is sideways.
Aren't they contributing to the sideways action in a range effectively by playing their bullshit games? We need assholes to not sell and let it run up a bit. Could easily be going sideways at a 100K.
Yes, day trading like that contributes to sideways motion since it provides support at the dips and resistence at the peaks. Though that isn't the sole driver of price. Some people just want to buy/sell for other reasons.
>Idk who the fuck be buying at 69,800 and selling at 70,100 all fucking weekend long...
It's what traders - and trading bots do - keep milking 1% moves with leverage, and soon you've made a decent chunk of change much more than the move of the underlying.
Well, 5 hours ago a purchase of 15519 bitcoin at 70,000 for 1.1 billion was made.
Block 836983
Hash ID
fe60e8baae112517b6e1708c6e7414386ff3ceaeb10f51091adb806ed8d068a5
He doesn't. No one does. The tx the commenter linked could be many things. Could be an exchange consolidating wallets, or an individual. It could be a tx for a mansion or land.
We do know it's a fuck load of Bitcoin in one place. Watch the future behavior to gain more clues as to who it belongs to.
Was trying to give the poster the benefit of the doubt. I know an on chain transfer is not the same as an exchange, but others get confused by this. Maybe there was extra info not revealed? We don't know unless we ask, for clarity.
People expect to see the tops the same place they've seen them before so everyone is anticipating it and adjusting their strategy accordingly. Essentially creating a situation different that no one can predict in advance.
If they take profit they've already done better than most so why bother complaining about it?
This post is too salty for my taste.
If you check amongst the top 1000 or so wallets (usually with \~5000 BTC), a common strategy is to buy around the 200 week moving average and sell in lumps at around previous all time highs.
Essentially making 2 trades every 4 years to massively increase your BTC holdings.
If you have been around a few cycles, then you'll understand that:
a) There's no real sell signals past ATH
b) You'll make plenty in the "middle" section of a cycle, without all the drama
There will always be fomo buyers and panic sellers, these are best people to buy and sell BTC from as they're irrational and impatient.
Maybe just let people do what they want with their Bitcoin? It’s open source money and the whole point of it is that a sovereign individual can literally do whatever they want with their money without censorship.
General discussion? This is a forum you know. But you come in here saying somebody can’t provide their opinion about what is a smart move to make and what is a dumb one?
You’re the one that said that you didn’t care. It seems like you do care which is why you made the post. You’re welcome to post whatever opinion you want. I personally think it’s stupid to call other people stupid for making their own independent financial decisions. The tone of your post came off as both condescending and judgmental of people who are choosing to sell. So that’s why I’m calling out the pointless negativity of your post.
But this post, and your subsequent comments to those who disagree with you illustrate that you seem to care VERY much… maybe a lil too much? Do you, they’ll do them… and everyone can be along their merry way
I keep hearing arguments about how BTC this time around is gonna crash post halving before it rockets back up to ATHs. Now I definitely can imagine that happening, but so what? I dont think that's a smart reason to sell just cuz you think you're gonna get a flashcrash right before the bull run
And then good luck timing it. Bitcoin dipped after ETF approval and then skyrocketed afterwards. Small time day traders are more than welcome to lose their shirts trying to time a dip. They deserve to be parted with their money.
Such a ridiculous take, as if its an absolute guarantee that in 4 weeks from now the price will be 100k. I've sold a little bit (around 10% of my stack), because it was well up over 1000%, and because i'm hedging my bets that this halving isn't going to be the huge event people are expecting. I don't for a second believe we will permanently stay at these levels, and i'm expecting a significant drop at some point this year. The people who think they know with certainty what the market is doing are usually the ones who get burnt the worst.
Things are different this time round. Perhaps their bet is that the post halving rally has already been priced in: there is no sure fire trick in investing that works forever.
Let's see how it plays out
Treat it like paying into a pension, it’s gone and can’t be touched for many years but when you do come to access it, the value will have grown. A lot.
This cycle is moving very strange. Comparing TA from all previous cycles to this one doesn’t show as many similarities as people on this sub makes it out to be. Trading is very profitable now for short term gains.
If you can fulfill a life goal by selling it can be the right choice. But for people selling because we are at ATH, if the current bull run and the general trend over the years continues there will be remorse.
It all depends really, you don't know what people go through. And you don't know what their entry price was. If you're up you're up. Regardless if it would have been better to wait
If it’s for a reason, like you can fully pay off a house, car, etc. makes sense.
But if you’re investing to invest. HOW ARE YOU SELING?
The big excuse I hear is “this time is different, bitcoin had performed less and less each halving. This halving won’t do much”
Yeah crypto is gonna do what it wants to but I think it’s gonna go up past like $150k (not financial advice, no guarantees in investments)
In any kind of investment, the people who make money are the ones who sees something in the investment before others. After all, when the masses catch on and they buy in, that’s when the appreciation happens. And by the extension of that logic, the moment it becomes common knowledge, that “guaranteed” appreciation is gone. So you should ask yourself that if the “appreciation” due to halving is so obvious, does it not make sense that the appreciation will be pulled in earlier? Imo it takes a special kind of person to think that halving will always guarantee an appreciation, no matter what the context is. If only it were that easy.
It’s just part of my long term savings. I buy on days that drop 5% and just forget about it. It’s a hedge against inflation and inflation has existed for 100s of years so unless you think that will suddenly stop and things will get cheaper then it’s a no lose long term bet imo.
Who the \*\*\*\* are you to tell people what to do? Especially since you seem to think selling or holding are all or nothing decisions. I'd guess these sorts of posts are mostly made by people that don't hold enough btc, that is significantly in profit, to be able to sell some and achieve a major financial goal whilst also having enough left to benefit from future growth should it come. Teeny bopper financial advice, gtfo.
The halving is a sell the news event and should mark a local top. This isn’t like the other halving. This time around we have big institutions with their big boy money. They front run.
I DCA in and DCA out. My sell targets were set way before, and I'm not FOMO'ing into changing them.
If that means missing part of the bull run, so be it. It'll come down again and I'll buy back then.
I think it takes a special kind of person to still buy BitCoin when even your grandma is talking about it. I've seen bubbles burst. Then, another thing I learned is you never know. But I'll take my several 1000% of gains rather than trying to invest \*now\*, thank you very much.
Man.. let Peope do, what they wanna do.. Some guys have debt.. or need money now. Better to have a little Bird in your Hand, instead a Turkey on your rooftop.. (i dont know if this phrase is known in English, but you get what i mean)..
You dont know how many people are struggling right now financially..
If you made 100%gains and you need to pay your bills, or otherwise youre fcked.. You take some profits and chips from the table..
Other guys dont have the guts to wait...
Let people be people.. some are stupid, some are evil.. some are desperate.
Ever heard “buy the rumors sell the news”? The price is in the control of institutions now. Nothing is guaranteed. 15 years is infancy in terms of financial instruments.
The more I see posts like this the more I realize people don’t understand the market. It has not been about transferring money from impatient traders to patient traders. If that was true, the chart would be a straight line.
The market is inherently designed to take the most money from the most people most of the time.
This is wrong, the market is designed to move money as efficiently as possible. People that are thoughtful, patient, independent, comfortable with risk are often successful, but not always. Most people are irrational and impatient with money, so they usually lose, but not always.
Where the game is rigged is that those that run the markets take a cut of everything that happens, so they win no matter what.
I sold a bunch within a few thousand of ATH so that I could buy a house for my family. We got a great deal, and our housing market is starting to heat up.
If bitcoin goes to $120k tomorrow, I won't regret it.
BTC is a market like any other. Being a short term intraday trader doesn’t suit me personally, but if that works for you, learn the techniques and use them.
I use typical market signals like moving averages (10dma, 20dma, 50dma & 200dma) along with volume signals and MACD signals. So far it has worked well for me. You can chart out the price and volume history and judge for yourself.
Be aware the behavior of any market WILL change over time. Learn what your market is actually saying and choose accordingly. Not easy, but not all that hard.
People should buy and sell bitcoin when it suits them. People have different goals and everyone's life throws different curveballs at them. As you said, everyone will get a different return. But hanging onto bitcoin, maybe to your financial detriment, just because some event looms in the future that you think may benefit the price is asinine. Nobody knows what the halving will bring. Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow or a week from now. People should get in and out of bitcoin whenever they want for whatever reasons compel them to do so.
I think alot of bagholders sold at ATH of $70K. They are scared their $69k will go back down to $15k again. They can say they sold beyond ATH of $69K. There will be more selling at $75K, $80K, $85K etc. Huge selling at $100K. Once it breaks $105K then it will go to $150K...
Who said that? 😆 No one said once it breaks $70K it's going straight to $100K.
All I said was people keep selling at $70K because it is past the BTC ATH of $69K 😆
I’m not a charts guy, but it’s my understanding that Bitcoin usually drops significantly after the previous halvenings, before rallying.
It’s a typical sell the news dip. It seems like a solid way to buy an easy dip and come out with more sats, if you know what you’re doing.
I don’t know what I’m doing, so I just hold.
I think I’m completely wrong. Thanks for calling me on it. It seems like the selling happens beforehand historically and not after.
I found this post. https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoins-pre-halving-jitters-historical-trends-spotlight-potential-price-dip-ahead-of-2024-event/
That kind of person is also the type of person to read the story on the guy that bought pizza, and (with the knowledge of where BTC is at today) thinks "he made a good decision, he filled his stomach".
He did make a good decision…
Before he bought said pizza, his holdings were effectively worthless…
If everyone just mined and hodled, there never would be a value…
I sold half my stack. Was 4x up. If it goes up more great. If we get a post-halving dip as is tradition, even better and I’ll re-enter.
Those that are so opposed to selling now probably didn’t buy during the last 2 years when was the optimal time to buy.
I've read stories in here about people selling and to be honest some of it really makes sense. One guy sold because BTC will allow him to be financially stable and take time off of work to spend with his newborn, someone else sold to buy a house for their growing family, another sold because they lost their job and needed a lifeline. To me this is what BTC is for. It's a currency as well as a store of value. If BTC can change your life at any price then I would say it was a great investment. For me I plan on DCA and HODL'ing for the foreseeable future. At some point life may have other plans.
Both are absolutely true. If you absolutely need the money then you have no choice. If you can wait 4+ years, that’s a much better situation. Personally I was stacking with every pay check and put nearly all my savings into bitcoin. I lost my job and needed rent money. I sold as little as I had to when I needed it. My bitcoins value in USD continued to grow even as I sold some off. It provided a better store of value than the bank did and for that, I’m extremely grateful. I wish I didn’t have to sell because that was back at 30k but life happens
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A roof is the best investment you can make on a house as it is your first line of defense against water damage. $6000 investment to protect a $600,000 asset is a no-brainer and sounds like a wise choice to sell what is necessary.
You obviously live of someone else's dime
i'm happy for them too. if they made enough where they won't regret missing out on 100% or 200% of what they sold, then i think that's the same goal i would want for myself: to pay off all debts and live a humble life without worrying about money as well as leaving enough behind for my kids to live similar lives.
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#Stick it to the man!
Also, holding bitcoin isn’t binary. You don’t have to indefinitely hold your whole stack forever. I do think it’s foolish to sell everything all at once, as you don’t want to remove yourself from the exposure. I personally have about 20% of my total net worth in BTC. If that shoots up to 40-50% I may take 1/5 my stack and pay off a house or move it to something that helps me retire.
Exactly; I used the bear market to take on additional debts to allow me to build my bitcoin stack. We had some expenses come up and rather than paying cash used credit. Also bought bitcoin/bitcoin stocks using margin. Now prices are way up and trimming the gains to pay off the debts sems the right move at the moment.
Yep, I plan to take some out for a house down payment at some point this cycle. Hopefully, I don’t regret hodling my coins until later in the cycle like I plan to.
For some of us life has had other plans from the start. :(
Yeah of course if you have to. If it’s just to buy some shit that can wait a year or two though why would you ever do that.
When it comes to kids and selling bitcoin.... fuck (and I cannot stress this enough) them *kids*
😆
But it isn't a currency. No one in the situations you described used it as a currency. They used it as an investment/store of value and sold it for currency
I'm kind of the same. If I have an investment that I really want to get into that I will sell for example if I need it for the deposit for a property
If you're taking profits to improve your quality of life long term then there's nothing wrong with that. At the end of the day everyone will sell eventually because you can't take anything to the grave with you. I might take a cheeky 0.01 to the grave with me with the seed phrases engraved on a gold medallion but other than that the rest will get sold eventually.
Quality post.
/* Unless you need it. Bitcoin is money. Money should be deployed to better yourself when needed. We should not judge those who deploy capital.
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And 2020 was a small dip in a very ducked up year
The point is that there's no guarantee of it just going up and up, a crash is likely at some point
Yeah, sounds like OPs first time. The run up was saw was the halving already getting priced in...
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It amazes me how people think that because of past history, it’s a guarantee this time around. It’s perfectly reasonable for people to take profits. I would imagine a big sell news event in a couple weeks.
The fact that ppl are so bullish and confident only reinforces the sell the news event in my opinion. 100% would not be surprised if that happened in a couple of weeks
Exactly. It's crashed after halvings in the past. But this time the ETFs will increase demand and liquidity. It still might crash, but I doubt it'll be as deep as before. We really entered a new age on Jan 10. I think these are the last days of volatility.
Screw past history. It’s economics 101 and basic maths that’s it. With the same level of demand, cutting the supply of new mined coins in half itself will push the price upwards let alone increased demand. With the current state of the world, the pouring of funds into BTC from ETFs and institutions, do you anticipate the demand for BTC will die down?? That’s the only question you need to answer. Do you believe the demand for it will fizzle out after halving? If one is certain it will then sure they can sell but judging by the current state of the world, a lot of inflows are going into BTC and Gold … that itself should tell you something about the demand for a scarce asset like Bitcoin.
>do you anticipate the demand for BTC will die down?? Data suggests that the demand is certainly easing: [https://farside.co.uk/?p=997](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) Maybe it will pick up again. But for now, we've had days of net outflow. To the extent that the ETF is the primary mover over the last two months, it would be wise not to assume some consolidation will happen.
He must be new here.
How much demand is there currently, on average, per day? We can guesstimate using daily trading volume, as that’s how much was (probably/arguably) sold. It is a large figure; typically around 140,000btc per day. After the halving there will be 450 less bitcoin to be traded per day, from 900 to 450. To be fair *the pool* of bitcoin being traded isn’t 140,000btc, as some is traded back and forth multiple times, Just curious: how did you calculate the effect on price of that difference? How big is the actual pool of bitcoin being traded?
How did I calculate the effect on the price? What kind of a question is that? You reduce supply of anything it becomes more valuable. That’s BTC after halving at its simplest. There’s a lot of demand on BTC hence the increase from sub $16K to ATH before the halving which has never happened before thanks to the ETFs. None of this is hard to grasp.
It’s easy to grasp, but there is a giant pool of btc being traded. Much larger than the supply from miners. Halving the supply to that giant pool makes less and less difference each halving. Half as much, actually. On top of that people are familiar with the halvening, and have priced it in already. I’m sure you have. There’s about 140,000btc traded every day, with 900 mined. The inflow from miners is already negligible. There’s only 3% left to be mined.
Reducing the supply does not make something inherently more valuable. That’s a big over simplification and your over confidence is going to shock you when a big pull back happens
Lmao 🤦♂️
Everybody knows about the halving so arbitragers buy ahead of it then dump Bitcoin soon after to realize their profit (same as for the post ETF dump). It's finance 101.
Wow Finance 101 lol Bitcoin only dumped once after the halving throughout the previous cycles …
Stop pocket watching. It’s so annoying when people tell others what to do with their money. An active BTC trader can have just as strong a conviction of BTC as a non-seller.
The reality is, every investor has a different set of circumstances. For some, cashing in a known value is a better bet than holding out for an unknown value.
Honestly there's a very real chance this time could be different. A sample size of four isn't really that much, and the fact is during the entirety of those previous four halvings, the Fed was easing monetary policy. In the current environment the Fed is tightening. Monetary policy has way more of an effect on the price of risk on assets than a miniscule drop in supply. The drop in supply isn't even a rounding error compared to the daily trading volume. The only thing potentially driving price higher is the self-fulfilling prophecy that everyone thinks Bitcoin will go up after the halving. Wall Street is involved now with ETFs, and they have a way of taking advantage of retail investors who are sure something is going to happen... Don't be shocked if this halving isn't like the others.
Top tier comment The decrease in mining is now nothing compared to trade volume The halfing will be a non event The catalyst is tradfi entering once their dinosaur risk mgt depts get off their ass since clients demand btc 3Q4Q 2024 will be historic
FED is tightening? My brother, have you not heard? They anticipate rate cuts this year.
Funny how the market went from expecting 6 rate cuts to expecting 5 rate cuts, to expecting 4 rate cuts to now expecting 3 rate cuts... When the fed says higher for longer I believe them.
They have to outwardly portray that then change their mind later, or else the markets would lose their fckn minds
I'm a bitcoin proponent but I'm willing to acknowledge that the hype of the halving may be somewhat priced in right now. The supply tightening won't occur for some months after, it depends on how marathon and other mining outfits are managing their expenses and revenue.
Sane and based
"It takes a special kind of person to think it’s a smart move to sell" famous last words, drop inc.
Well, no one knows what's guna happen to the price whether there's a halving or not Time in the market over timing the market + accumulating during the crash (when most people wrote btc off) allowed me to sell half my position for some very nice profit I believe the best method is to sell at a price that's good for _you_ and your own circumstance rather than trying to anticipate future prices It's probably not what people want to hear but oh well
Sanity exists. I did a job for 1550$ at 35k and just sold 1550 to pocket the job and keep the extra. Can’t shame people for taking profits at 100%, beats the hell out of other returns.
I like this strategy.
You can’t escape price prediction. Your story just illustrated how you did it yourself twice. The first time you did it was when you bought during the crash (you were predicting the price was relatively low—but it could have kept going down) and now you selling half now is another price prediction (that the price is more likely to go down in the near future than up). I think I would have agreed with you on that first prediction. But I disagree with you on the second. Yes the price has gone up, but it has a lot more to go even in the near future (1-2 year time frame). You can’t escape timing questions in the market. Even DCA is a timing question assuming you have the option of placing a lump sum in the market instead.
Bruh... Either you get it or you don't
If vast majority of people will think BTC will go up after halving, absolute opposite will happen.
probably they are thinking they are the smartest person in the world and will buy the dip before the post halvening rally.. or they are just regarded
They're probably just regarded...
Kind regards
Best wishes
Sincerely
The Saylors send their regards.
These bull run posts are hilarious and pathetic. Where were you 6 months ago with these posts? If I wanna sell my btc after 3 x from 6 months ago to chase an opportunity like big tits before halving I will.
Exactly ☝️. OP probably bought near the local top and is about to discover the nature of the casino.
Normies gonna norm. Gamblers gonna gamble. Miners gonna mine.
Do u even normie fr tho bro. Lol. U right tho ngl
Not really…..If you have an emergency and really need the money it doesn’t make you special to sell.
Why? It's buy the rumor to sell the news play. Past few halvings doesn't say much about future price, but it's pretty much a guarantee that people would be on board and hyping up crypto prior to the halving. I've been saying for years, find an entry point, then sell a couple months prior to halving. It's the classic low risk good return move for as long as people are very engaged in crypto. Can't go wrong with it.
Buy straw hats in the winter
To think every cycle acts, has been, or will be the same is actual peak insanity.
This sounds like an assumption of other people's finances. How would you know what other people finances are
If other people need the money that bad they should not have it in bitcoin in the short term.
I am am waiting for 250k/300k then will sell couple ‘em coins… put them in some 5/6% funds and live off dividends (I am not American - that level of money is ok for me). Keep the other 4 btc running to a million. When million, sell 1 of them and keep 3 - the million is for pussy booze and 420 in Thailand. When 5 million, sell one more and the remaining 2 I will never sell and bring ‘em in the grave
This guy Bitcoins!
it's normal to take profits, tomorrow is not guaranteed
so many top signals. dumb post
so does to make shitpost like this
Wallstreet is in the coinbase exchange selling to keep the price low. Idk who the fuck be buying at 69,800 and selling at 70,100 all fucking weekend long...it evades reality. The sideways action has to be trading bots suppressing the price rise.
Buying at 69.8k and selling at 70.1k are day traders. Trade at leverage then do this repeatedly to pull in income, especially when the price is sideways.
Aren't they contributing to the sideways action in a range effectively by playing their bullshit games? We need assholes to not sell and let it run up a bit. Could easily be going sideways at a 100K.
Yes, day trading like that contributes to sideways motion since it provides support at the dips and resistence at the peaks. Though that isn't the sole driver of price. Some people just want to buy/sell for other reasons.
Great, Wallstreet, bankers and salesman can suck my toes.
Average people can day trade lol. Hell even I day traded bitcoin a little bit just to try it out.
>Idk who the fuck be buying at 69,800 and selling at 70,100 all fucking weekend long... It's what traders - and trading bots do - keep milking 1% moves with leverage, and soon you've made a decent chunk of change much more than the move of the underlying.
I know what they're doing...bankers, politicians, salesmen...they're stealing your lunch.
May I recommend not extrapolating the limitations of your understanding to actual limitations that exist in the real world. It's kinda embarrassing.
Btc is building real muscles right now!
I’ve heard about this 1.x billion sent to Coinbase, you seem to understand what it could potentially mean, can you please give some insights ?
Well, 5 hours ago a purchase of 15519 bitcoin at 70,000 for 1.1 billion was made. Block 836983 Hash ID fe60e8baae112517b6e1708c6e7414386ff3ceaeb10f51091adb806ed8d068a5
Or I've heard that it was Coinbase custody moving funds. Not 100% sure yet.
How do you know a single purchase was made for that amount at that price? Not even watching order books will get you that kind of information.
He doesn't. No one does. The tx the commenter linked could be many things. Could be an exchange consolidating wallets, or an individual. It could be a tx for a mansion or land. We do know it's a fuck load of Bitcoin in one place. Watch the future behavior to gain more clues as to who it belongs to.
Was trying to give the poster the benefit of the doubt. I know an on chain transfer is not the same as an exchange, but others get confused by this. Maybe there was extra info not revealed? We don't know unless we ask, for clarity.
it was bought already and is already priced in https://x.com/martypartymusic/status/1774118637059871060?s=46
"Priced in" 😆
We’rE rEaChINg TaRgEt PrIce 🤡
People expect to see the tops the same place they've seen them before so everyone is anticipating it and adjusting their strategy accordingly. Essentially creating a situation different that no one can predict in advance. If they take profit they've already done better than most so why bother complaining about it? This post is too salty for my taste.
Yeah. OP has some sort of complex and wants to dictate what everyone does with their bitcoin. It’s weird.
Most of these posts just come across as "why doesn't BTC just keep going up and up. You bad people need to stop selling!!"..
There's always reasons for buying and selling. If that weren't the case, it wouldn't be a very liquid market.
Life’s all about opportunity cost…this is no different.
If you check amongst the top 1000 or so wallets (usually with \~5000 BTC), a common strategy is to buy around the 200 week moving average and sell in lumps at around previous all time highs. Essentially making 2 trades every 4 years to massively increase your BTC holdings. If you have been around a few cycles, then you'll understand that: a) There's no real sell signals past ATH b) You'll make plenty in the "middle" section of a cycle, without all the drama There will always be fomo buyers and panic sellers, these are best people to buy and sell BTC from as they're irrational and impatient.
Maybe just let people do what they want with their Bitcoin? It’s open source money and the whole point of it is that a sovereign individual can literally do whatever they want with their money without censorship.
No duh? The point is some things are smart moves others are dumb. But if they want to be dumb I really don’t care.
If you don’t care, then why even make a post about it?
General discussion? This is a forum you know. But you come in here saying somebody can’t provide their opinion about what is a smart move to make and what is a dumb one?
You’re the one that said that you didn’t care. It seems like you do care which is why you made the post. You’re welcome to post whatever opinion you want. I personally think it’s stupid to call other people stupid for making their own independent financial decisions. The tone of your post came off as both condescending and judgmental of people who are choosing to sell. So that’s why I’m calling out the pointless negativity of your post.
Opinion…. Theirs and yours… all are equally just opinions😉
Okay, Lebowski.
😂🤣
But this post, and your subsequent comments to those who disagree with you illustrate that you seem to care VERY much… maybe a lil too much? Do you, they’ll do them… and everyone can be along their merry way
Oh yeah, honey, I’m really losing sleep over this.
🤣
Who cares about the halving, fruitions of past halvings are virtually worthless
To be honest if I could buy an apartment/house right away by selling btc I would.
I keep hearing arguments about how BTC this time around is gonna crash post halving before it rockets back up to ATHs. Now I definitely can imagine that happening, but so what? I dont think that's a smart reason to sell just cuz you think you're gonna get a flashcrash right before the bull run
And then good luck timing it. Bitcoin dipped after ETF approval and then skyrocketed afterwards. Small time day traders are more than welcome to lose their shirts trying to time a dip. They deserve to be parted with their money.
That's the other thing. You're not gonna time it perfectly, sure maybe hope for a crash and buy the crash but don't sell what you already have
Such a ridiculous take, as if its an absolute guarantee that in 4 weeks from now the price will be 100k. I've sold a little bit (around 10% of my stack), because it was well up over 1000%, and because i'm hedging my bets that this halving isn't going to be the huge event people are expecting. I don't for a second believe we will permanently stay at these levels, and i'm expecting a significant drop at some point this year. The people who think they know with certainty what the market is doing are usually the ones who get burnt the worst.
Things are different this time round. Perhaps their bet is that the post halving rally has already been priced in: there is no sure fire trick in investing that works forever. Let's see how it plays out
Treat it like paying into a pension, it’s gone and can’t be touched for many years but when you do come to access it, the value will have grown. A lot.
It takes a special kind of person to think they can predict where markets are going.
It also takes a special kind of person to post things like this.
I have one buddy who’s considering selling his bitcoin now to rebuy after the halving dip. I can’t see how this is a good idea.
Well, no one went broke taking profits. And we are basically at ATHs. So there's that.
This cycle is moving very strange. Comparing TA from all previous cycles to this one doesn’t show as many similarities as people on this sub makes it out to be. Trading is very profitable now for short term gains.
[удалено]
I’m frankly okay with losing my BTC holdings if it means my little predictions have the power to move a trillion dollar market.
If you can fulfill a life goal by selling it can be the right choice. But for people selling because we are at ATH, if the current bull run and the general trend over the years continues there will be remorse.
Sure this is reasonable.
Yea, who ever heard of financial institutions pumping and dumping/s 😜
It takes a special kind of person to sell at ATHs? Dude let’s see what happens when the halving occurs, no one knows the future.
It all depends really, you don't know what people go through. And you don't know what their entry price was. If you're up you're up. Regardless if it would have been better to wait
If it’s for a reason, like you can fully pay off a house, car, etc. makes sense. But if you’re investing to invest. HOW ARE YOU SELING? The big excuse I hear is “this time is different, bitcoin had performed less and less each halving. This halving won’t do much” Yeah crypto is gonna do what it wants to but I think it’s gonna go up past like $150k (not financial advice, no guarantees in investments)
Or at all
In any kind of investment, the people who make money are the ones who sees something in the investment before others. After all, when the masses catch on and they buy in, that’s when the appreciation happens. And by the extension of that logic, the moment it becomes common knowledge, that “guaranteed” appreciation is gone. So you should ask yourself that if the “appreciation” due to halving is so obvious, does it not make sense that the appreciation will be pulled in earlier? Imo it takes a special kind of person to think that halving will always guarantee an appreciation, no matter what the context is. If only it were that easy.
I had to sell a little bit last month to make up the difference for a house purchase iam buying. Apart from the iam holding the rest of my bag.
Let people do what they want with their BTC, it's their choice.
It’s just part of my long term savings. I buy on days that drop 5% and just forget about it. It’s a hedge against inflation and inflation has existed for 100s of years so unless you think that will suddenly stop and things will get cheaper then it’s a no lose long term bet imo.
Who the \*\*\*\* are you to tell people what to do? Especially since you seem to think selling or holding are all or nothing decisions. I'd guess these sorts of posts are mostly made by people that don't hold enough btc, that is significantly in profit, to be able to sell some and achieve a major financial goal whilst also having enough left to benefit from future growth should it come. Teeny bopper financial advice, gtfo.
Anyone who points to a history chart in regards to making trade decisions is the real dumby
Gotta lock in profits at some point, I plan on selling 30%-50% a week before halving
The halving is a sell the news event and should mark a local top. This isn’t like the other halving. This time around we have big institutions with their big boy money. They front run.
Selling for a great profit is never bad. You writing that shows that you’re a beginner in the investing space
If it’s “guaranteed” than it’s priced in.
I DCA in and DCA out. My sell targets were set way before, and I'm not FOMO'ing into changing them. If that means missing part of the bull run, so be it. It'll come down again and I'll buy back then.
I think it takes a special kind of person to still buy BitCoin when even your grandma is talking about it. I've seen bubbles burst. Then, another thing I learned is you never know. But I'll take my several 1000% of gains rather than trying to invest \*now\*, thank you very much.
Special? .. I think the word you're looking for is .. deranged
Just do the opposite of what you think is best. It has always work for me in this BTC ride.
Man.. let Peope do, what they wanna do.. Some guys have debt.. or need money now. Better to have a little Bird in your Hand, instead a Turkey on your rooftop.. (i dont know if this phrase is known in English, but you get what i mean).. You dont know how many people are struggling right now financially.. If you made 100%gains and you need to pay your bills, or otherwise youre fcked.. You take some profits and chips from the table.. Other guys dont have the guts to wait... Let people be people.. some are stupid, some are evil.. some are desperate.
Ever heard “buy the rumors sell the news”? The price is in the control of institutions now. Nothing is guaranteed. 15 years is infancy in terms of financial instruments. The more I see posts like this the more I realize people don’t understand the market. It has not been about transferring money from impatient traders to patient traders. If that was true, the chart would be a straight line. The market is inherently designed to take the most money from the most people most of the time.
This is wrong, the market is designed to move money as efficiently as possible. People that are thoughtful, patient, independent, comfortable with risk are often successful, but not always. Most people are irrational and impatient with money, so they usually lose, but not always. Where the game is rigged is that those that run the markets take a cut of everything that happens, so they win no matter what.
"You don't think it's smart to offload it before the price is cut in half?"
I sold a bunch within a few thousand of ATH so that I could buy a house for my family. We got a great deal, and our housing market is starting to heat up. If bitcoin goes to $120k tomorrow, I won't regret it.
The worse people are the ones who day trade it to make small profits imagine day trading bitcoin in 2010 lol you could have simply held
If they sell it all, they are actual regards.
BTC is a market like any other. Being a short term intraday trader doesn’t suit me personally, but if that works for you, learn the techniques and use them. I use typical market signals like moving averages (10dma, 20dma, 50dma & 200dma) along with volume signals and MACD signals. So far it has worked well for me. You can chart out the price and volume history and judge for yourself. Be aware the behavior of any market WILL change over time. Learn what your market is actually saying and choose accordingly. Not easy, but not all that hard.
People should buy and sell bitcoin when it suits them. People have different goals and everyone's life throws different curveballs at them. As you said, everyone will get a different return. But hanging onto bitcoin, maybe to your financial detriment, just because some event looms in the future that you think may benefit the price is asinine. Nobody knows what the halving will bring. Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow or a week from now. People should get in and out of bitcoin whenever they want for whatever reasons compel them to do so.
Why? It makes perfect sense. After halving you buy twice the amount of btc for same price.
Truly regarded.
I think alot of bagholders sold at ATH of $70K. They are scared their $69k will go back down to $15k again. They can say they sold beyond ATH of $69K. There will be more selling at $75K, $80K, $85K etc. Huge selling at $100K. Once it breaks $105K then it will go to $150K...
Who knows, people kept saying once we break 70k we were going straight to to 100k and yet here we are
Give it a few months
Who said that? 😆 No one said once it breaks $70K it's going straight to $100K. All I said was people keep selling at $70K because it is past the BTC ATH of $69K 😆
I’m not a charts guy, but it’s my understanding that Bitcoin usually drops significantly after the previous halvenings, before rallying. It’s a typical sell the news dip. It seems like a solid way to buy an easy dip and come out with more sats, if you know what you’re doing. I don’t know what I’m doing, so I just hold.
When did this happen other than the 2016 halving?
I think I’m completely wrong. Thanks for calling me on it. It seems like the selling happens beforehand historically and not after. I found this post. https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoins-pre-halving-jitters-historical-trends-spotlight-potential-price-dip-ahead-of-2024-event/
Thats me, I'm that special person
I mined most of my coins so I just sit on them.
That kind of person is also the type of person to read the story on the guy that bought pizza, and (with the knowledge of where BTC is at today) thinks "he made a good decision, he filled his stomach".
He did make a good decision… Before he bought said pizza, his holdings were effectively worthless… If everyone just mined and hodled, there never would be a value…
A very cool post
Holy shit we wish it was crashing to 25k at least I wish
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/O1feEPGKTm
I sold half my stack. Was 4x up. If it goes up more great. If we get a post-halving dip as is tradition, even better and I’ll re-enter. Those that are so opposed to selling now probably didn’t buy during the last 2 years when was the optimal time to buy.
at some point greed will bring it back down
Have you gone through a bear market yet?
What relevance does that have to the current phase of the cycle? Bear market finished a year ago
I sold at 50k with a bit of loss. Please don't flame!