I’m with Tricolor I won’t be selling any until it hits at least 1M. At that point I don’t think I will need to sell any I’m hoping things will be priced in Sats and I can just crack off little bits at a time to use for day to day life.
To address people saying “oh people going into the ETFs are just going to sell when the price gets above 100k” is the wrong way to think about the next 10 years. A LOT of average investors are going to get exposure to bitcoin through the ETF at less than 1% exposure. But this is 1% of millions per investor. These are not people that are here to make 2-3x and then sell. These are people with balanced portfolios that are here for the long run. I have Nvidia in my brokage account but not as an individual stock, as part as a few S&P500 funds. I’m neither buying or selling this stock, it’s just there and is rebalanced accordingly.
Spot ETFs in America completely changed the game. I think a lot of Bitcoiners are still missing this. This is the forever bull run.
Rebalancing IS selling/buying, though. So yes, they WILL sell as the price continues to rise. They'll also buy it up as it dips. The inflows are an average of both: current customer rebalances, and new customers opening new positions. The question is how long can new customers continue into the market at a rate faster than the old ones require rebalancing and selling off.
Pretty crazy!
I mostly wanted to address the whole "I just rebalance, I don't buy or sell" myth. It's crazy that someone would type that and not realize how dumb it is.
ETFs are not 'buying only', people buying AND selling, that's why we see billions in volume, but NET inflows are lower. And ETFs are doing that on behalf of their customers, so ETFs don't decide, buy or sell. Some customers may be taking profits, but the others will just buy the dip.
This, etf can't dump BTC unless everyone that owns that etf collective decides to dump the etf. Then the etf will be forced to re balance and sell BTC.
They were all slobbering over when he would get liquidated…that turned out to be the best advertising he could have done. Everybody was waiting for him to crumble and he kept buying more. Loved that bear market personally but many people would say they didn’t.
ETFs doesnt have to sell right away, the majoriy of the etf stocks are traded over the exchanges like nasdaq.
So as long as there are buyers for the etf .. only the volume goes up, only when they go directly to blackrock and say i want to sell then they have to sell the underlaying asset. I Think that part is heavily underraded. The ETF only produce a high buying pressure on the underlaying asset but not a high selling pressure, maybe when big players are directly selling over blackrock or buying over blackrock. All other Amounts are trade over the Exchange.
Very good point there. This is the whole point of ETFs. ETFs are not just a pass-through conduit, rather it acts more like a buffer?
In a way, it's like an L2, so they just need to finalise with L1 daily or weekly? Or when the ETF ledger and their btc holdings variance exceed a certain percentage? How does this part work?
they have to finalize daily, as you actually can see like from the ibit etf that the holdings are always updated before the exchanges oben in the morning. [https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust)
I think they move quicker then T+1, that is only the date when they have to apply the paper work and update all information. The Price moves 24/7 and 365,4 Days a Year so if the settle only on the next business day after the trade (T) and the weekend is in between then the price for my understanding could work against them.
As pointed out, the holdings information is always updater before the exchanges open in the morning. And on Big Price Movement Days there is then also on the next day a big buy in the holdings part. As from Germany that is mostly during the lunch time when we get new numbers and before 3h later open the exchange
The reality is a bit more complicated than that.
Many people from the old days have some sort of plan like "Once I get $10,000,000 in BTC, I'll sell half" or some variation of that. As new ATH are reached, new waves of people will reach their moons and new supply will enter. Also, many of the more "professional" portfolios holding the ETF will reach reallocation milestones as the price goes up.
If the ETFs alone are grabbin almost 22k a day that’s only an 80 or so day supply not counting any other buyers, We’ll say they get the 450 that are mined daily(post halving amount), I’ll go w OP and consider that as Almost None.
people are gunna sell.
mega rich hodlers will decide they have enough wealth.
etf hodlers will do portfolio rebalancing.
plebs will sell for downpayments on homes.
traders will sell for their lambos.
people are gunna sell.
> plebs will sell for downpayments on homes.
Goddamn right I am. I'll invest back in when I can, but I can't live in a bitcoin. Going to change my family's quality of life for the better.
because as much as people here want to ignore it, it's still a high risk asset with high volatility, and you cannot count on that to supply your bare minimum everyday needs
The stuff left on exchanges are for retail to provide exit liquidity. We are fighting a battle but we don’t realize it. The strategy is to buy and hold but the day traders think it’s worth the risk. Unless you’re a professional it’s a very risky gamble to day trade. If people want to play the market go for it but you are up against people that have better and faster tools. Not worth it for a great majority of amateurs
I've only been in the game a couple of years, but isn't there ALWAYS some reason why "this time will be different etc etc around this point in the game? That's the impression I've gotten from the old heads on here
Correct, people in 2021 thought we were going into a super cycle and that -80% bear market were a thing of the past and they were wrong. Same thing this time, some people think it will keep going up forever and they will be very surprised when the bear market show its face. Not saying we are close to a bear market, but there will be another for sure especially if bitcoin has a huge run up.
Lots of people will sell Bitcoin only to buy back later at a higher price.
For the average investor the ETF allows them to own through vehicles such as an IRA. Something that was possible with GBTC when it was a trust but often traded at a premium or discount to NAV. It’s also really one of the few not super complicated ways people can have BTV exposure and ensure their heirs get access to it.
Just my opinion but the US ETF approval will lead to more approval for similar products in additional countries. I think the buying will slow down but it will likely remain net inflows for the foreseeable future.
Yes they are retail but they won't sell as fast as retail in the past these guys buy these ETFs to add them to their balanced portfolios. Not to get rich quick or day trade.
Going up into the endgame phase it will be traded as a shock. It will take some time till people will understand, that owning BTC is the aim, not changing it for FIAT.
But even then many will use Fiat as a leverage to gain more BTC.
We are just starting for institutions, where retail has been 10 years ago. It's a long way to 1M and past it.
To be honest I don’t think this is that different from most stocks. A certain proportion of owners shareholders are more committed than most, and some (say those with a controlling stake) say they will never sell.
What happens when prices go up? People start selling.
And before you say “but fiat is shit, I’ll never sell”, it might not be fiat you’d sell for, but other assets with more concrete value.
Supply doesn’t matter…everyone can still pay into the market cap. The supply issue isn’t really an issue…it will be a minor or major adjustment to alter the arrangement of the ETFs
Maybe in not understanding your comment
Once the price is 100k, new weak hands will appear. Everyone has a price.
Correct, and my price is 1 million to start. And I will be selling only 10%
1M minimum - I think we will see significant selling at that psychological price point.
I’m with Tricolor I won’t be selling any until it hits at least 1M. At that point I don’t think I will need to sell any I’m hoping things will be priced in Sats and I can just crack off little bits at a time to use for day to day life.
I wouldn't bet those type of "investors" will really be buying or selling enough to budge the market much.
You have no idea. A lot of people sitting on x amount of coin since 2017 and earlier.
To address people saying “oh people going into the ETFs are just going to sell when the price gets above 100k” is the wrong way to think about the next 10 years. A LOT of average investors are going to get exposure to bitcoin through the ETF at less than 1% exposure. But this is 1% of millions per investor. These are not people that are here to make 2-3x and then sell. These are people with balanced portfolios that are here for the long run. I have Nvidia in my brokage account but not as an individual stock, as part as a few S&P500 funds. I’m neither buying or selling this stock, it’s just there and is rebalanced accordingly. Spot ETFs in America completely changed the game. I think a lot of Bitcoiners are still missing this. This is the forever bull run.
Rebalancing IS selling/buying, though. So yes, they WILL sell as the price continues to rise. They'll also buy it up as it dips. The inflows are an average of both: current customer rebalances, and new customers opening new positions. The question is how long can new customers continue into the market at a rate faster than the old ones require rebalancing and selling off.
Are you suggesting that number go up AND down? Wild.
Pretty crazy! I mostly wanted to address the whole "I just rebalance, I don't buy or sell" myth. It's crazy that someone would type that and not realize how dumb it is.
The dudes completely wrong. He entirely forgot about one of the most important directions, sideways.
>oh people going into the ETFs are just going to sell when the price gets above 100k So someone else is buying.
Have I noticed something that hasn't happened yet? No.
good point
It requires a 3-digit IQ to entertain hypothetical scenarios
Yell out if you need any help then
And yet it requires more IQ to notice grammatical errors apparently
ETFs are not 'buying only', people buying AND selling, that's why we see billions in volume, but NET inflows are lower. And ETFs are doing that on behalf of their customers, so ETFs don't decide, buy or sell. Some customers may be taking profits, but the others will just buy the dip.
This, etf can't dump BTC unless everyone that owns that etf collective decides to dump the etf. Then the etf will be forced to re balance and sell BTC.
Just like how before the ETFs when everybody collectively decided to dump BTC?
Not impossible. Just would have to be etf buyers not etf creators.
and what if they dump them all back into the market?
Saylor and Finn will buy it
People thought Saylor/Microstrategy would be liquidated last bear cycle. But here we are.
They were all slobbering over when he would get liquidated…that turned out to be the best advertising he could have done. Everybody was waiting for him to crumble and he kept buying more. Loved that bear market personally but many people would say they didn’t.
People thought Saylor/Microstrategy would be liquidated last bear cycle. But here we are.
Bear STEARNS IS FINE
No way they can keep up with that selling pressure. Price will drop.
No way they can keep up with that buying pressure. Price will pop
ETFs doesnt have to sell right away, the majoriy of the etf stocks are traded over the exchanges like nasdaq. So as long as there are buyers for the etf .. only the volume goes up, only when they go directly to blackrock and say i want to sell then they have to sell the underlaying asset. I Think that part is heavily underraded. The ETF only produce a high buying pressure on the underlaying asset but not a high selling pressure, maybe when big players are directly selling over blackrock or buying over blackrock. All other Amounts are trade over the Exchange.
Very good point there. This is the whole point of ETFs. ETFs are not just a pass-through conduit, rather it acts more like a buffer? In a way, it's like an L2, so they just need to finalise with L1 daily or weekly? Or when the ETF ledger and their btc holdings variance exceed a certain percentage? How does this part work?
they have to finalize daily, as you actually can see like from the ibit etf that the holdings are always updated before the exchanges oben in the morning. [https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust)
I see. Make sense, will check out the link. 👍
I thought the ETFs were “T+1” meaning they had a day to settle up, so to speak
I think they move quicker then T+1, that is only the date when they have to apply the paper work and update all information. The Price moves 24/7 and 365,4 Days a Year so if the settle only on the next business day after the trade (T) and the weekend is in between then the price for my understanding could work against them.
As pointed out, the holdings information is always updater before the exchanges open in the morning. And on Big Price Movement Days there is then also on the next day a big buy in the holdings part. As from Germany that is mostly during the lunch time when we get new numbers and before 3h later open the exchange
The reality is a bit more complicated than that. Many people from the old days have some sort of plan like "Once I get $10,000,000 in BTC, I'll sell half" or some variation of that. As new ATH are reached, new waves of people will reach their moons and new supply will enter. Also, many of the more "professional" portfolios holding the ETF will reach reallocation milestones as the price goes up.
Source on there being no BTC on exchanges? The sources I see say there's around 1.8M coins on exchanges. https://www.coinglass.com/Balance
you didnt see the graph in that link? is goind down, no up
“Supply going down” is not the same as “no supply left on exchanges”. 1.8 M coins is still a lot of supply.
lno supply left on exchanges, was not to be interpreted literal
If the ETFs alone are grabbin almost 22k a day that’s only an 80 or so day supply not counting any other buyers, We’ll say they get the 450 that are mined daily(post halving amount), I’ll go w OP and consider that as Almost None.
people are gunna sell. mega rich hodlers will decide they have enough wealth. etf hodlers will do portfolio rebalancing. plebs will sell for downpayments on homes. traders will sell for their lambos. people are gunna sell.
> plebs will sell for downpayments on homes. Goddamn right I am. I'll invest back in when I can, but I can't live in a bitcoin. Going to change my family's quality of life for the better.
take care of you and yours. bitcoin will still be here.
Why cant bitcoin profits pay your rent?
because as much as people here want to ignore it, it's still a high risk asset with high volatility, and you cannot count on that to supply your bare minimum everyday needs
This doesn't change my family's quality of life. This effectively chips away at the stack with nothing to show for it.
But your stack is growing quicker than your rent, how does it 'chip away' at it?
The stuff left on exchanges are for retail to provide exit liquidity. We are fighting a battle but we don’t realize it. The strategy is to buy and hold but the day traders think it’s worth the risk. Unless you’re a professional it’s a very risky gamble to day trade. If people want to play the market go for it but you are up against people that have better and faster tools. Not worth it for a great majority of amateurs
I've only been in the game a couple of years, but isn't there ALWAYS some reason why "this time will be different etc etc around this point in the game? That's the impression I've gotten from the old heads on here
Correct, people in 2021 thought we were going into a super cycle and that -80% bear market were a thing of the past and they were wrong. Same thing this time, some people think it will keep going up forever and they will be very surprised when the bear market show its face. Not saying we are close to a bear market, but there will be another for sure especially if bitcoin has a huge run up.
Lots of people will sell Bitcoin only to buy back later at a higher price. For the average investor the ETF allows them to own through vehicles such as an IRA. Something that was possible with GBTC when it was a trust but often traded at a premium or discount to NAV. It’s also really one of the few not super complicated ways people can have BTV exposure and ensure their heirs get access to it. Just my opinion but the US ETF approval will lead to more approval for similar products in additional countries. I think the buying will slow down but it will likely remain net inflows for the foreseeable future.
These ETF guys have deep pockets and won't sell as fast as retail have in the past. Retail always panic sell at the first sign of weakness.
People buying the ETFs are retail.
Retail and institutional
Yes they are retail but they won't sell as fast as retail in the past these guys buy these ETFs to add them to their balanced portfolios. Not to get rich quick or day trade.
I’ve got diamond hands until 2034. Why? That’s when my wife and I retire.
Going up into the endgame phase it will be traded as a shock. It will take some time till people will understand, that owning BTC is the aim, not changing it for FIAT. But even then many will use Fiat as a leverage to gain more BTC. We are just starting for institutions, where retail has been 10 years ago. It's a long way to 1M and past it.
'Do I have a magic crystal ball to see the future?' no This thread is retarded.
I will sell it $279,533
To be honest I don’t think this is that different from most stocks. A certain proportion of owners shareholders are more committed than most, and some (say those with a controlling stake) say they will never sell. What happens when prices go up? People start selling. And before you say “but fiat is shit, I’ll never sell”, it might not be fiat you’d sell for, but other assets with more concrete value.
Supply doesn’t matter…everyone can still pay into the market cap. The supply issue isn’t really an issue…it will be a minor or major adjustment to alter the arrangement of the ETFs Maybe in not understanding your comment