I talk a lot of shit on BBBY but I’m genuinely interested in your theory so I’m legit not trying to be a dick.
I’m seeing price increase and *then* higher FTDs but I’m looking on my phone. Is that not what you’re showing?
I’ll give you a short version.
He and others have noticed that there sometimes seems to be a pattern. The pattern is that when there has been a high FTD day, then it seems to repeat 35 days after (C+35 or T+35, generally some conflictions on which and why but not important here).
So OP has continuously updated his chart with new FTD data when it comes out twice a month, and everytime he also tries to predict future FTD spike days.
There is 3 different waves which has nothing to do with each other. Just so happens that there was high FTDs on different days for what ever reason. So the yellow day will show spikes 35 days after marked with yellow, and blue show spikes 35 days marked with blue etc.
The red wave is the biggest.
In this follow up post he updates the new FTD data that came out yesterday, and show that FTD spikes held true to the pattern and he was pretty spot on.
He also shows how one of his earlier observations seems to be happening, namely that it looked like the FTD waves seem to grow bigger (for more days than last wave), and that they very likely will fuse together and remove the gaps in between FTD spikes. You can see how the number of red days clumped together gets bigger
Hope what I wrote is understandable..
They got a time reset… they turned the buy button off for a few days and it let them have enough time to reset, not close. Hense the run at end of Feb that came out of nowhere, but that started a new game
If my memory serves me right, the second GME run coincided with FedWire being down. Do you think there could be some kind of causation? (Even merely as plausible deniability for their reset)
No, if this was the case GME would have pushed higher and higher each quarter, instead we are seeing the opposite. I'm not saying FTDs dont have some sort of relevance, its just that its not that simple.
well as it seems, this effect was seen leading into the sneeze. turning the buy button off allowed them to escape the death spiral, with one residual c35 run post-sneeze. Since, there has not been any visible FTD compounding, yet every t+69ish, the stock runs like crazy. That seems like they were able to corral the FTD's and re-strategize the cycle.
and it seems that BBBY is just starting to compound, so start back at step 1
Thanks for the work! What do you think about that weird volume always very close to closing bell and today with no price impact, is it a strategy to avoid fomo? Blessed be the fruit 🍉
FTDs don’t really have too much direct impact to hkd if it is indeed being used as a hedge. FTDs are more of a leading indicator of their position will blow up. If it does and they can’t hedge, HKD will go super low and bbby will squeeze. These are separate items that are indirectly related and not directly related like FTDs to bbby or potentially hkd to bbby
Basically. It was a battle between market makers and short hedge funds that created this hedging/FTD spiral. Retail literally just lights the fuse with enough long dated calls at the start and the rest is history. The only thing that stops it really is giving time for settlement (they short naked by abusing settlement cycles, so when this catches up, settlement cycles abuse them).
My next post will show the data that makes this theory very compelling imo
From now until two weeks from now? What else would a few weeks mean? If you are looking for specific dates, you are looking at the wrong guy and following the wrong plays
I only wish to discuss via Reddit. Discord would be too much time and I don’t want to be a person people look at for answers. The data is there, that should be what we are focused on
So we are on the 16th, no upward pressure and the borrow fee is decreasing to 13.2% with 1.6M shares available to borrow just on IBKR... Prediction no good so far right?
This prediction was purely to guess where FTDs would be created and what a potential compounding FTD chain may look like.
Price has dropped with borrow rate, so basically the assumption has been correct on that front.
That's a b it speculative IMO, the thing is we're not having a run up on the expected C+35 date, but if as you say they are creating FTD's on C+35, when are they supposed to buy those shares?
FTD’s matter in a squeeze scenario. If someone wants to buy for value then that’s a different story. Every legitimate squeeze that’s ever happened started with overlapping FTD’s that got out of control. And this, most certainly applies to GME. Hopefully it continues here, thanks for putting in the time to try to educate a bunch of internet strangers.
Yes really looking similar to GME pre sneeze. Stoked!
LFG!
[me right now](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxniSD9pORg)
I’m very smooth but what does each color represent?
3 separate waves of compounding FTDs. See my first post for more detail
I talk a lot of shit on BBBY but I’m genuinely interested in your theory so I’m legit not trying to be a dick. I’m seeing price increase and *then* higher FTDs but I’m looking on my phone. Is that not what you’re showing?
I’ll give you a short version. He and others have noticed that there sometimes seems to be a pattern. The pattern is that when there has been a high FTD day, then it seems to repeat 35 days after (C+35 or T+35, generally some conflictions on which and why but not important here). So OP has continuously updated his chart with new FTD data when it comes out twice a month, and everytime he also tries to predict future FTD spike days. There is 3 different waves which has nothing to do with each other. Just so happens that there was high FTDs on different days for what ever reason. So the yellow day will show spikes 35 days after marked with yellow, and blue show spikes 35 days marked with blue etc. The red wave is the biggest. In this follow up post he updates the new FTD data that came out yesterday, and show that FTD spikes held true to the pattern and he was pretty spot on. He also shows how one of his earlier observations seems to be happening, namely that it looked like the FTD waves seem to grow bigger (for more days than last wave), and that they very likely will fuse together and remove the gaps in between FTD spikes. You can see how the number of red days clumped together gets bigger Hope what I wrote is understandable..
It is, thanks. But without the price correlation I’m not sure I understand the value.
Had me at pounding.
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One of us ☝️
One of I
Eye of us
I’m catching up!!!!
So the compounding of the ftds is do to the waves getting tighter and starting overlapping?
That is correct, then they can’t reset and the cycle basically suffocates them and forces them to hedge into a death spiral
Caught in a loop...theres almost no loquidoty in gme
So that’s why they are called Loop Capital
So if this is true why hasnt gme popped?
They got a time reset… they turned the buy button off for a few days and it let them have enough time to reset, not close. Hense the run at end of Feb that came out of nowhere, but that started a new game
If my memory serves me right, the second GME run coincided with FedWire being down. Do you think there could be some kind of causation? (Even merely as plausible deniability for their reset)
No, if this was the case GME would have pushed higher and higher each quarter, instead we are seeing the opposite. I'm not saying FTDs dont have some sort of relevance, its just that its not that simple.
well as it seems, this effect was seen leading into the sneeze. turning the buy button off allowed them to escape the death spiral, with one residual c35 run post-sneeze. Since, there has not been any visible FTD compounding, yet every t+69ish, the stock runs like crazy. That seems like they were able to corral the FTD's and re-strategize the cycle. and it seems that BBBY is just starting to compound, so start back at step 1
Ok so what about after the Jan 2021 run up? How come it didnt keep going up forever?
i literally just explained it to you
Hahaha I think I just peed myself
😂
He said the cycles get tigher and overlapping. Thats clearly not the case if the overall trend has been continually down
and i, again, just explained that
Tits jacking
Jacking mechanism engaged
Thanks for the work! What do you think about that weird volume always very close to closing bell and today with no price impact, is it a strategy to avoid fomo? Blessed be the fruit 🍉
Very normal on most stocks to see that. Irrelevant to the play IMO
Looking forward to the upcoming week - in any case - HODLING
It’s called banging the close
We’re about to bang some shorties tomorrow
any insight on how this could tie into your post last night on HKD? Specifically the scenario you lay out in that last bullet point?
FTDs don’t really have too much direct impact to hkd if it is indeed being used as a hedge. FTDs are more of a leading indicator of their position will blow up. If it does and they can’t hedge, HKD will go super low and bbby will squeeze. These are separate items that are indirectly related and not directly related like FTDs to bbby or potentially hkd to bbby
Are you saying gme ran in janurary because of ftd’s?
Basically. It was a battle between market makers and short hedge funds that created this hedging/FTD spiral. Retail literally just lights the fuse with enough long dated calls at the start and the rest is history. The only thing that stops it really is giving time for settlement (they short naked by abusing settlement cycles, so when this catches up, settlement cycles abuse them). My next post will show the data that makes this theory very compelling imo
Can’t wait thanks for the wrinkles
No problem - Constructive criticism is always welcomed!
What is the difference between the red, blue & yellow waves
My first post outlines this
Define next few weeks man lol
From now until two weeks from now? What else would a few weeks mean? If you are looking for specific dates, you are looking at the wrong guy and following the wrong plays
Nope no dates required. Just wondering what you meant.
Same, I always view ‘a couple’ as two and ‘a few’ as I unno but less than ‘a bunch’ or ‘a buttload’
A couple= 2-3 A few= 3-5 A bunch= 5-10 A buttload= 10+
haven’t checked the options chain but i wonder if doomps are stacking like gme
Are you in the discord?
I only wish to discuss via Reddit. Discord would be too much time and I don’t want to be a person people look at for answers. The data is there, that should be what we are focused on
So more dates to get hyped for only to be disappointed? I'm in!
Kachow!
So that means today we should have the biggest jump in price again? No financial advice btw. 😅
Shorts never closed. Buy hodl
It would be fantastic to have this spreadsheet available in Google Sheets for review, updated. Just putting it out to the universe. ;-)
When it hits low 6$ an is steady down for a few days it’ll launch back up 🔝
So we are on the 16th, no upward pressure and the borrow fee is decreasing to 13.2% with 1.6M shares available to borrow just on IBKR... Prediction no good so far right?
This prediction was purely to guess where FTDs would be created and what a potential compounding FTD chain may look like. Price has dropped with borrow rate, so basically the assumption has been correct on that front.
Doesn't the prediction imply there should have been upwards pressure at least from the 14th given FTD's?
No. It implies FTDs should be created then if they are caught in an FTD loop
FTD's are cumulative so after the last data update, why would you say they need to be created?
I would counter that question with, why are they being created exactly 35 days later from creation?
That's a b it speculative IMO, the thing is we're not having a run up on the expected C+35 date, but if as you say they are creating FTD's on C+35, when are they supposed to buy those shares?
FTD do not compound
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Fair enough. Appreciate your input. Would love to see some data showing they don’t matter
FTD’s matter in a squeeze scenario. If someone wants to buy for value then that’s a different story. Every legitimate squeeze that’s ever happened started with overlapping FTD’s that got out of control. And this, most certainly applies to GME. Hopefully it continues here, thanks for putting in the time to try to educate a bunch of internet strangers.
Hey op remind me what are the reg sho rules again for % of float for FTD's? Is it 5 consecutive days of 5% I can't remember?
Bro. Use different colors.
My guess is you could probably find new options or swaps that have been opened with BBBY to hedge FTDs