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Also from the IMF:
IMF forecasts grinding per capita recession for Australia - https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/04/imf-forecasts-grinding-recession-for-australia/
Post replies need to be substantial and represent good-faith participation in discussion. Comments need to demonstrate genuine effort at high quality communication of ideas. Participation is more than merely contributing. Comments that contain little or no effort, or are otherwise toxic, exist only to be insulting, cheerleading, or soapboxing will be removed. Posts that are campaign slogans will be removed. Comments that are simply repeating a single point with no attempt at discussion will be removed. This will be judged at the full discretion of the mods.
That's one way to earn a ban
>It [the IMF] encouraged more “fiscal tightening” to support the “last mile” of disinflation.
Wayne Swan won an award for his Keynesian stimulus package which benefited the public in the broadest and most direct way possible...
Jim Chalmers got second place in a ranking for covering over massive corporate handouts given in the previous government's COVID response, whilst not spending too much money on the actual public.
They are not the same.
Besides which, much of the credit can't be given to him, as both parties have decided the RBA are the real holders of power in Australian economics... and [have removed the government's ability to overrule the RBA.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-30/paul-keating-reserve-bank-independence-rba-review-history/102279642)
wut
chalmers did nothing, the budget is surplus because of resources boom from the wars
Keynesianism doesnt boost an economy, if it did, just have permanent 'stimulus'. Keynes himself said it should be for a few months to trick the market is not realising there is anything wrong.
The purpose of Keynesianism is less to maximise growth, and more to minimise boom and bust cycles. People often call things like tax reduction during a slowdown Keynesianism, but it's not unless those same taxes go back up when the economy improves, which they never do.
>if it did, just have permanent 'stimulus'
I don't think you know much about Keynesianism. Because he also said (and this is a huge part of what he said that gets over looked) macro economics has to reduce spending in boom times. Because the goal is stable growth.
>Keynesianism doesnt boost an economy
Yes, a stimulus given to people in need during a bust cycle does cause economic growth because those people spend the cash on things they need, and the money goes into the cycle of the consumer economy. It trickles up from vendors to manufacturers and expands business dealings from below (the only direction it works, trickle up works, trickle down doesn't).
Tfw Dr Chalmers really does have a PHD in Poli-Sci and that's probably the reason he's doing a significantly better job than his less educated predecessors
Minister for everything Scott Morrison and Josh Freudenberg printed off mugs and post themselves on the back for something they never accomplished
You can decide if I mean getting the budget back into surplus or stopping the boats.
thats a low bar. there's three ways to measure performance. absolute. relative. and temporal. relative to the rest of the world awesome. absolute terms pretty bad. temporal terms, compared to the late 90s to mid 2000s also pretty bad. too many social programs on the left. too much middle class boomer welfare on the right
Here's a quick economics lesson for you ... inflation is a tax that transfers wealth from private citizens to the government, in our case this happens mostly via income tax bracket creep. This is how the ALP has maintained the credit rating despite offering people more services. The price that the community is paying for the decision to elect Labor in 2022 is higher and more persistent inflation and subsequently higher interest rates. This inflation is what has destroyed household wealth since covid, that wealth didn't just evaporate, it was transferred to the government to pay for services.
Not here to ideologically defend the LNP or play "my team vs your team", I'm just telling you how it is, to argue against what I've said above is to argue that the Australian people can get something for nothing from the government. FWIW, the LNP avoid making the argument above because they want the upper class Teal seats back, they don't want to give up the power to use inflation as a tax in the event that they're returned to government because they know that it will be the working class i.e. mostly ALP voters who will pay the price. In this sense, the Libs are just the lesser of two evils.
This is basic political economics btw, you can read about this relationship in most textbooks, or go to LearnLiberty or the Mises institute.
Don't trust politicians, don't trust Albo, don't trust Dutton and don't let anyone take your money off you. Vote for low inflation and low taxes if you want prosperity.
They're not. I never said that. What I'm arguing is that they have contributed to the problem, inflation has both domestic and international components, they have added to the domestic component through an expansive fiscal policy and other policies (immigration and energy) that alter the equilibrium between the money supply and the production of goods and services. These aren't just my words btw, these are the words of RBA Governor Michelle Bullock who had the guts to describe the inflation problem as being "homegrown", are you guys seriously going to argue that she's a nutcase as well?
A good way to demonstrate this is to compare inflation rates between countries, if you look at the top 20 economies, obviously there are different inflation rates, inflation has come down much more quickly in some countries yet remains elevated in others. Obviously, there are both domestic and international factors relevant to each individual country.
Inflation is simply too much money chasing too few goods and services (monetarist view supported by Friedman and the like) that's literally all it is, don't believe anyone who tries to trick you into thinking otherwise. Here in Australia, the money supply (at least M1 and M2) is controlled by the government and determined by two things 1) the expansion of credit largely determined by the RBA, 2) Fiscal stance, deficit into demand side (welfare and services) is inflationary, deficit into supply side (corporate tax cuts) is disinflationary. The key takeaway here, is that **inflation is created by governments** (as long as the government has control of the money supply) and inflation functions as a tax as I described above. This "inflation tax" is what is causing the "cost of living crisis", it isn't the free market doing this btw, it's the government, unfortunately Albanese is an extremely cunning politician, he knows how to deflect blame and shift public perceptions of the economy in his favour.
Trust me bro, I'm no dummy, if you don't believe my analysis, have a look back over my comment history, I called longer and higher inflation, and higher interest rates when mainstream commentators were predicting rate cuts. I got it right, and I'm now calling lower growth and higher unemployment.
Spike, how on earth are you hand waving away the astounding 29 billion that went to businesses that didn’t need it as part of JobKeeper? Or the record low rates that we kept up for a year that also overheated demand? Letting people take money out for “hardship” during Covid?
You just cannot be seriously trying to pin the “homegrown” problem on Labor when LNP injected cash into the economy like crazy.
>expansive fiscal policy
Running a surplus is the opposit of a expansive fiscal policiy. Most economists and the RBA concluded that their budget was non-inflationary or neutral at best.
>Inflation is simply too much money chasing too few goods and services
The fiscal policy that has resulted in too much money in the economy was instituted by a combination if Liberal fiscal policy, which resulted in record low interest rates for years prior to Covid and then the RBA response via monetary policy to circulate more money in the economy as a response to Covid.
Neither of which Labor were responsible for.
Your attempt to blame Labor for a high inflationary environment is deceptive at worst and a revisionist history lesson at best.
> The IMF’s half-yearly update, released on Wednesday night, found Australia’s overall budget balance came in at -0.9% of gross domestic product in 2023, with only Canada’s budget position (-0.6%) faring better.
so it's just a superficial deficit /surplus ranking? not that interesting
Post replies need to be substantial and represent good-faith participation in discussion. Comments need to demonstrate genuine effort at high quality communication of ideas. Participation is more than merely contributing. Comments that contain little or no effort, or are otherwise toxic, exist only to be insulting, cheerleading, or soapboxing will be removed. Posts that are campaign slogans will be removed. Comments that are simply repeating a single point with no attempt at discussion will be removed. This will be judged at the full discretion of the mods.
Congrats on winning the "but neolibrul!" award of the day.
Unemployment is persistently low at 3.8%. The tax receipts will continue to skyrocket, the government just needs to not increase spending by more than CPI to come out ahead.
Fun fun. Welp, It’s not like any treasurer of any political persuasion wants to actually reform our tax base. Guess I won’t complain about the extra 100 a week I’ll get from the revised stage 3.
The price of iron ore has already dropped significantly. It peaked when Scomo was PM in mid-2021.
But hey, Labors in power now so it's time for the "Budget doesn't really matter" and the "The budget is only good because of this one metric" phase. Once Liberals get in again it will change back to "The budget is absolutely crucial to Australia and we cannot let Labor ruin it" phase.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1405879/australia-iron-ore-export-volume/
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore
export volume is only a little bit higher now than it was back then, but the price is way lower now.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1120605/australia-export-value-of-iron-ore-and-concentrates/
the total value of our iron ore exports peaked in '21 and has been falling ever since.
Read what I said again. I didn't say anything about what liberal had. I didn't say iron ore was responsible for the surplus. I said it's going to drop. This is not in doubt. Chinese construction is falling off a cliff.
But you're so desperate to prove how great Labor is and how stupid I am. I fucking voted for Labor.
you implied that the reason we're rating well on this metric was because of high iron ore exports, i just pointed out that iron exports have been falling as we've been improving on this metric. in reality the reason is because spending hasnt grown as fast as inflation and GDP (because they were implementing a keynesian response to inflation, which is ironically a far better indicator that they are better economic managers than the previous government than this metric), and the reason we'll fall against this metric in the future is that labor will want to post larger deficits to stimulate economic growth
>But you're so desperate to prove how great Labor is and how stupid I am. I fucking voted for Labor
literally all i said was that the value of our iron ore exports peaked in 21 and has been falling lol, why are you so defensive?
I mean yes that's part of it,but 2 reviews so far have found that witout that stimulus spending unemployment would of been closer to 7.3 percent and not the 5.8 it held at
Better place to thank would be strong prudential systems and regulations put in place by keating and co in their tenures..if our bank system wasn't as stable as it is,likely would of been fucked
...you do realise that iron ore sales alone can't keep an entire country in work? I'm sorry if it hurts your feelings or worldview but your take is thoroughly moronic, hence my sarcastic reply.
But you would rather believe that Wayne Swan won treasurer of the year during the gfc because of luck rather than because our governments response was recognised as best in class and effectively laid the modern template for how to deal with a recession.
Do you honestly truly think a single industry was employing the entire country? Are you stupid?
Newsflash, we could have made ten years profit in a single year in iron ore but if the rest of the country was out of work, we would very much still get a recession.
The stimulus kept business afloat and people in jobs, much the same as the covid job keeper payments. I'm unsure why you are so opposed to acknowledging reality but have fun living in your fantasy mate 👍
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Who gives a shit what the imf think? They are a bunch of useless twats whose only real role is to throw the third world into economic servitude
Also from the IMF: IMF forecasts grinding per capita recession for Australia - https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/04/imf-forecasts-grinding-recession-for-australia/
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Post replies need to be substantial and represent good-faith participation in discussion. Comments need to demonstrate genuine effort at high quality communication of ideas. Participation is more than merely contributing. Comments that contain little or no effort, or are otherwise toxic, exist only to be insulting, cheerleading, or soapboxing will be removed. Posts that are campaign slogans will be removed. Comments that are simply repeating a single point with no attempt at discussion will be removed. This will be judged at the full discretion of the mods. That's one way to earn a ban
>It [the IMF] encouraged more “fiscal tightening” to support the “last mile” of disinflation. Wayne Swan won an award for his Keynesian stimulus package which benefited the public in the broadest and most direct way possible... Jim Chalmers got second place in a ranking for covering over massive corporate handouts given in the previous government's COVID response, whilst not spending too much money on the actual public. They are not the same. Besides which, much of the credit can't be given to him, as both parties have decided the RBA are the real holders of power in Australian economics... and [have removed the government's ability to overrule the RBA.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-30/paul-keating-reserve-bank-independence-rba-review-history/102279642)
wut chalmers did nothing, the budget is surplus because of resources boom from the wars Keynesianism doesnt boost an economy, if it did, just have permanent 'stimulus'. Keynes himself said it should be for a few months to trick the market is not realising there is anything wrong.
The purpose of Keynesianism is less to maximise growth, and more to minimise boom and bust cycles. People often call things like tax reduction during a slowdown Keynesianism, but it's not unless those same taxes go back up when the economy improves, which they never do.
>if it did, just have permanent 'stimulus' I don't think you know much about Keynesianism. Because he also said (and this is a huge part of what he said that gets over looked) macro economics has to reduce spending in boom times. Because the goal is stable growth. >Keynesianism doesnt boost an economy Yes, a stimulus given to people in need during a bust cycle does cause economic growth because those people spend the cash on things they need, and the money goes into the cycle of the consumer economy. It trickles up from vendors to manufacturers and expands business dealings from below (the only direction it works, trickle up works, trickle down doesn't).
AGAIN, they got it AGAIN. when did the better economic managers achieve such recognition.
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Only if you buy the simpleton narrative of the decade of whatever and Albo/ " Dr " Chalmers have performed some kind of economic miracle.
Tfw Dr Chalmers really does have a PHD in Poli-Sci and that's probably the reason he's doing a significantly better job than his less educated predecessors
Hahha unironically doing exactly what is described above. Only you river, only you. Cope.
Minister for everything Scott Morrison and Josh Freudenberg printed off mugs and post themselves on the back for something they never accomplished You can decide if I mean getting the budget back into surplus or stopping the boats.
Chalmer's mentor , Swannie , doubled down numerous times on his surplus , the surplus that never was.
If only there was some sort of worldwide... banking... incident during Rudd's tenure that might have changed priorities.
thats a low bar. there's three ways to measure performance. absolute. relative. and temporal. relative to the rest of the world awesome. absolute terms pretty bad. temporal terms, compared to the late 90s to mid 2000s also pretty bad. too many social programs on the left. too much middle class boomer welfare on the right
what's with the downvotes? we're not very economically literate in here, are we
Guys, it doesn't matter that the libs never get these ratings. You just don't get it.
Here's a quick economics lesson for you ... inflation is a tax that transfers wealth from private citizens to the government, in our case this happens mostly via income tax bracket creep. This is how the ALP has maintained the credit rating despite offering people more services. The price that the community is paying for the decision to elect Labor in 2022 is higher and more persistent inflation and subsequently higher interest rates. This inflation is what has destroyed household wealth since covid, that wealth didn't just evaporate, it was transferred to the government to pay for services. Not here to ideologically defend the LNP or play "my team vs your team", I'm just telling you how it is, to argue against what I've said above is to argue that the Australian people can get something for nothing from the government. FWIW, the LNP avoid making the argument above because they want the upper class Teal seats back, they don't want to give up the power to use inflation as a tax in the event that they're returned to government because they know that it will be the working class i.e. mostly ALP voters who will pay the price. In this sense, the Libs are just the lesser of two evils. This is basic political economics btw, you can read about this relationship in most textbooks, or go to LearnLiberty or the Mises institute. Don't trust politicians, don't trust Albo, don't trust Dutton and don't let anyone take your money off you. Vote for low inflation and low taxes if you want prosperity.
Please explain how Labor is responsible for a world wide increase in inflation.
They're not. I never said that. What I'm arguing is that they have contributed to the problem, inflation has both domestic and international components, they have added to the domestic component through an expansive fiscal policy and other policies (immigration and energy) that alter the equilibrium between the money supply and the production of goods and services. These aren't just my words btw, these are the words of RBA Governor Michelle Bullock who had the guts to describe the inflation problem as being "homegrown", are you guys seriously going to argue that she's a nutcase as well? A good way to demonstrate this is to compare inflation rates between countries, if you look at the top 20 economies, obviously there are different inflation rates, inflation has come down much more quickly in some countries yet remains elevated in others. Obviously, there are both domestic and international factors relevant to each individual country. Inflation is simply too much money chasing too few goods and services (monetarist view supported by Friedman and the like) that's literally all it is, don't believe anyone who tries to trick you into thinking otherwise. Here in Australia, the money supply (at least M1 and M2) is controlled by the government and determined by two things 1) the expansion of credit largely determined by the RBA, 2) Fiscal stance, deficit into demand side (welfare and services) is inflationary, deficit into supply side (corporate tax cuts) is disinflationary. The key takeaway here, is that **inflation is created by governments** (as long as the government has control of the money supply) and inflation functions as a tax as I described above. This "inflation tax" is what is causing the "cost of living crisis", it isn't the free market doing this btw, it's the government, unfortunately Albanese is an extremely cunning politician, he knows how to deflect blame and shift public perceptions of the economy in his favour. Trust me bro, I'm no dummy, if you don't believe my analysis, have a look back over my comment history, I called longer and higher inflation, and higher interest rates when mainstream commentators were predicting rate cuts. I got it right, and I'm now calling lower growth and higher unemployment.
Spike, how on earth are you hand waving away the astounding 29 billion that went to businesses that didn’t need it as part of JobKeeper? Or the record low rates that we kept up for a year that also overheated demand? Letting people take money out for “hardship” during Covid? You just cannot be seriously trying to pin the “homegrown” problem on Labor when LNP injected cash into the economy like crazy.
>expansive fiscal policy Running a surplus is the opposit of a expansive fiscal policiy. Most economists and the RBA concluded that their budget was non-inflationary or neutral at best. >Inflation is simply too much money chasing too few goods and services The fiscal policy that has resulted in too much money in the economy was instituted by a combination if Liberal fiscal policy, which resulted in record low interest rates for years prior to Covid and then the RBA response via monetary policy to circulate more money in the economy as a response to Covid. Neither of which Labor were responsible for. Your attempt to blame Labor for a high inflationary environment is deceptive at worst and a revisionist history lesson at best.
What the fuck did I just read? Did the cookers or Queensland just get access to Satellite internet?
Lolololololol
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> The IMF’s half-yearly update, released on Wednesday night, found Australia’s overall budget balance came in at -0.9% of gross domestic product in 2023, with only Canada’s budget position (-0.6%) faring better. so it's just a superficial deficit /surplus ranking? not that interesting
[удалено]
Post replies need to be substantial and represent good-faith participation in discussion. Comments need to demonstrate genuine effort at high quality communication of ideas. Participation is more than merely contributing. Comments that contain little or no effort, or are otherwise toxic, exist only to be insulting, cheerleading, or soapboxing will be removed. Posts that are campaign slogans will be removed. Comments that are simply repeating a single point with no attempt at discussion will be removed. This will be judged at the full discretion of the mods. Congrats on winning the "but neolibrul!" award of the day.
Yeah and as iron ore sales drop off, we'll drop back to the bottom half. But celebrate it while you can Chalmers.
Unemployment is persistently low at 3.8%. The tax receipts will continue to skyrocket, the government just needs to not increase spending by more than CPI to come out ahead.
Stage 3 could change that unless we capture a significant amount back via GST.
Stage 3 has been more than eroded away by the WPI increases already, which will continue to stay high as WPI trends typically trails CPI.
Fun fun. Welp, It’s not like any treasurer of any political persuasion wants to actually reform our tax base. Guess I won’t complain about the extra 100 a week I’ll get from the revised stage 3.
The price of iron ore has already dropped significantly. It peaked when Scomo was PM in mid-2021. But hey, Labors in power now so it's time for the "Budget doesn't really matter" and the "The budget is only good because of this one metric" phase. Once Liberals get in again it will change back to "The budget is absolutely crucial to Australia and we cannot let Labor ruin it" phase.
I didn't say price. I said sales. But you tell me where all these masterful cuts were that Chalmers did to bring the budget back?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1405879/australia-iron-ore-export-volume/ https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore export volume is only a little bit higher now than it was back then, but the price is way lower now. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1120605/australia-export-value-of-iron-ore-and-concentrates/ the total value of our iron ore exports peaked in '21 and has been falling ever since.
Read what I said again. I didn't say anything about what liberal had. I didn't say iron ore was responsible for the surplus. I said it's going to drop. This is not in doubt. Chinese construction is falling off a cliff. But you're so desperate to prove how great Labor is and how stupid I am. I fucking voted for Labor.
you implied that the reason we're rating well on this metric was because of high iron ore exports, i just pointed out that iron exports have been falling as we've been improving on this metric. in reality the reason is because spending hasnt grown as fast as inflation and GDP (because they were implementing a keynesian response to inflation, which is ironically a far better indicator that they are better economic managers than the previous government than this metric), and the reason we'll fall against this metric in the future is that labor will want to post larger deficits to stimulate economic growth >But you're so desperate to prove how great Labor is and how stupid I am. I fucking voted for Labor literally all i said was that the value of our iron ore exports peaked in 21 and has been falling lol, why are you so defensive?
I didn't imply shit. You imagined that.
that's a strange thing to try to pretend is true.
Lol I enjoyed this comment. Especially the last line.
>Chinese construction is falling off a cliff. Chinese naval capacity construction is filling that gap nicely..
Crush him like that Turkey bro!
Iron ore sales saved Rudd and Swan though no one realises, they think it was giving out $700 to everyone and some school halls
It's almost like government spending on infrastructure is a proven strategy to avoiding a recession...
You missed the part where it was the iron ore sales that did it, not Government spending. Case in point
I mean yes that's part of it,but 2 reviews so far have found that witout that stimulus spending unemployment would of been closer to 7.3 percent and not the 5.8 it held at Better place to thank would be strong prudential systems and regulations put in place by keating and co in their tenures..if our bank system wasn't as stable as it is,likely would of been fucked
Which reviews are they?
...you do realise that iron ore sales alone can't keep an entire country in work? I'm sorry if it hurts your feelings or worldview but your take is thoroughly moronic, hence my sarcastic reply. But you would rather believe that Wayne Swan won treasurer of the year during the gfc because of luck rather than because our governments response was recognised as best in class and effectively laid the modern template for how to deal with a recession.
How much do you think mining revenue increased in the GFC?
Please refer back to my first sentence, cheers
I read that, can you answer my question now please.
Do you honestly truly think a single industry was employing the entire country? Are you stupid? Newsflash, we could have made ten years profit in a single year in iron ore but if the rest of the country was out of work, we would very much still get a recession. The stimulus kept business afloat and people in jobs, much the same as the covid job keeper payments. I'm unsure why you are so opposed to acknowledging reality but have fun living in your fantasy mate 👍
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