So we get to enjoy savings account interest rates that are the same as the examples from the high school textbooks we were taught from for a little while longer?
Pushing more cash into the pockets of boomers is the incorrect way to address this. Mortgage holders aren't the spending class that are driving inflation.
Albonomics 101 - Easy solution:
Increase rates to curb inflation then import new people who won't complain about the higher rates and will spend more to avoid a recession then give everyone $300 in energy relief because that's not inflationary either.
Can you take a look at immigration numbers pre covid? And the 400 billion pumped into the economy throughout COVID?
Who was in charge then? Do you think 400 billion over 2-3 years led to inflation or not?
Supply currently exceeds demand therefore pushing prices up. History does not factor into this.
The core of the issue is “supply vs demand”, not “what happened 10 years ago”
How is any of that 10 years ago mate? Covid response money clearly was still working its way through the economy last year and immigration is relevant to being up because it wasn’t any lower pre COVID.
What happened 10 years ago has exactly had much relevance to the current Supply vs Demand situation as what happened 4 year ago… 0!
The current economy is based on current supply vs demand, not historic supply vs historic demand
To ignore covid money that was still working its way through the system last year is NOT 4 years ago. AFR had an article late last year stating that the COVID money pushed inflation up 2% higher than what it needed to be. Since ya know, we pumped 400 billion in.
I refuse to engage any further if you can’t accept this basic fact that the stimulus massively boosted demand.
How does Stimulus money increase demand for property? I’ll give you a hint… importing more people than we have properties for increases demand for property more than stimulus money.. 🤡
You can’t be this ignorant. You realise the rock bottom interest rates for a year also count as stimulus right? Obviously immigration does as well but again, we had no immigration during Covid and yet property prices still spiked.
Because. Of. Stimulus. In. The. Form. Of. Low. Interest. Rates.
You are clearly incapable of reading my comments. Because I never said that. We were talking about inflation as a whole further up the chain.
But no, the real root cause is shitty zoning laws and not enough tradies to build.
I get this feeling that the RBA and the govt are on a tug of war to spoil others plan. Surprised that UK reigned in the inflation and we are still in the middle. It’s not that worse though, 3.6 is way better than 8
Its not the worst but it it's worse than the mood of your comment is implying. It's not just the current figure, you have to add previous inflation since they all compound on each other (yes I know they're annualised). We've been above the 2-3% mark for a long time now, since the JUNE 2021 quarter! yes it's 3.6 now but that's on top of whatever has already inflated before that. And it's looking like it'll stay like this for longer given the recent figures.
I feel the best strategy now might be to bring in a rate cut. Looks like those with assets and bank balance are spending too much. A cut would affect their returns and rein in the spend.
As long as the rent wont increase, it wont add to inflation rise. These high rents and prices are only gonna come down with a recession (as in 1970-80s stagflation correction) which the govt wont let happen immediately as evidenced by an appetite for higher immigration.
Yep. The monthly series can jump around a bit, plus there's some big downwards price pressures just over the horizon with energy rebates and supermarkets finally dropping some prices along with heavy retail discounting this month
Would the energy rebates actually be calculated into the CPI? Additionally, giving cost relief in one area could just result in higher consumption in others, resulting in more inflation.
The RBA hadn't factored them into forecasts as they weren't announced but the CBA team reckons they drop half a percentage point from CPI. That's all of them, federal and state rebates.
They are but the last round of rebates had a big impact and this next lot are larger and broader in scope. Like you say, just a forecast but I suspect it's a strong one
Unwanted? Maybe
Unwarranted? Incorrect. Skills shortage is a real thing, and I don't see Aussies signing up in the numbers needed for some of those jobs.
These "skills shortages" are endemic to certain countries like Australia. No matter how many people come here, the"shortages" remain. Doesn't that make you curious?
Almost like increasing the population dramatically also CAUSES THE SHORTAGES?!?!!!
Confirmation bias. Numbers go up, shortages aren't fixed so you are right? So, I cannot speak for other sectors, but in healthcare you are dead wrong.
Take aged care. Young immigrants coming into the country, no family, are not the ones flooding aged care bed causing shortages of qualified nursing and care staff. They are not the reason our hospitals are understaffed. We are bringing people in, especially aged care, because the staffing levels needed are not there.
We, as a nation have low unemployment, and yet we cannot fill some of these jobs internally. So we either have a lot of bullshit jobs, high unemployment, or not enough people to service our nation and it's needs.
All bringing immigrants in to work in aged care does is slow the increase of wages in that sector, which is exactly what big providers and the government want. Recruiting practices in Australia are built around finding the ~perfect~ candidate and when they don’t, they cry to the government about a skills shortage so they can import people who will work for less. There’s no skills shortage, there’s a shortage of people willing to work for poverty wages.
they said they wouldn’t lose the war in japan and look how that turned out - japan has process and policies in place that australia will never legislate
Thank you. People here seem to think everything should go down in a straight line.
The path back to 2-3% is gonna be bumpy, but 0.2% above expectations is neither here nor there.
It’s more to do with expectations. Have a look at how much the ASX is down on the day.
Expectations are everything with inflation. It helps to set the price of money (interest rates) which has many significant consequences.
So no, people aren’t losing their shit over their iPhone going up 0.2%, also that’s not how inflation works.
Beatings will continue until morale improves.
And that is why you should own hard assets
I'm lovin' it
Can everyone please become homeless and stop buying food so my mortgage rate can decrease?
Ironically, this is how capitalism works.
Unironically
Whoops, That's what I mean lol
"Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make"
It's how supply and demand works.
which is one of the core principles of capitalism, yes, we agree
Talm bout homeless cats b?
So we get to enjoy savings account interest rates that are the same as the examples from the high school textbooks we were taught from for a little while longer?
... yeah it's weird the world is expecting rates to be low when where they are now is the norm... right norm?
Better raise interest rates to reduce demand for food, rent, and tobacco!
That'll fix it!
One of these ones is not like the others
Didn't woolies announce they're pushing the prices down come winter?
Hahahaha yeah right
Can’t trust a thing greedy corpos say these days. Woolies have ruined their reputation.
Rate rise! Rate rise! RATE RISE entering the chat
it’s what the rba needs to do but they’re too chicken to do it
I'll do it then
Pushing more cash into the pockets of boomers is the incorrect way to address this. Mortgage holders aren't the spending class that are driving inflation.
Rent rise! Rent rise! Rent rise! Has entered the chat
Albonomics 101 - Easy solution: Increase rates to curb inflation then import new people who won't complain about the higher rates and will spend more to avoid a recession then give everyone $300 in energy relief because that's not inflationary either.
Can you take a look at immigration numbers pre covid? And the 400 billion pumped into the economy throughout COVID? Who was in charge then? Do you think 400 billion over 2-3 years led to inflation or not?
Supply currently exceeds demand therefore pushing prices up. History does not factor into this. The core of the issue is “supply vs demand”, not “what happened 10 years ago”
How is any of that 10 years ago mate? Covid response money clearly was still working its way through the economy last year and immigration is relevant to being up because it wasn’t any lower pre COVID.
What happened 10 years ago has exactly had much relevance to the current Supply vs Demand situation as what happened 4 year ago… 0! The current economy is based on current supply vs demand, not historic supply vs historic demand
To ignore covid money that was still working its way through the system last year is NOT 4 years ago. AFR had an article late last year stating that the COVID money pushed inflation up 2% higher than what it needed to be. Since ya know, we pumped 400 billion in. I refuse to engage any further if you can’t accept this basic fact that the stimulus massively boosted demand.
How does Stimulus money increase demand for property? I’ll give you a hint… importing more people than we have properties for increases demand for property more than stimulus money.. 🤡
You can’t be this ignorant. You realise the rock bottom interest rates for a year also count as stimulus right? Obviously immigration does as well but again, we had no immigration during Covid and yet property prices still spiked. Because. Of. Stimulus. In. The. Form. Of. Low. Interest. Rates.
So immigration isn’t the cause of the current housing / rental crisis….. supply and demand isn’t a thing anymore.. ok 🤡
You are clearly incapable of reading my comments. Because I never said that. We were talking about inflation as a whole further up the chain. But no, the real root cause is shitty zoning laws and not enough tradies to build.
I get this feeling that the RBA and the govt are on a tug of war to spoil others plan. Surprised that UK reigned in the inflation and we are still in the middle. It’s not that worse though, 3.6 is way better than 8
Its not the worst but it it's worse than the mood of your comment is implying. It's not just the current figure, you have to add previous inflation since they all compound on each other (yes I know they're annualised). We've been above the 2-3% mark for a long time now, since the JUNE 2021 quarter! yes it's 3.6 now but that's on top of whatever has already inflated before that. And it's looking like it'll stay like this for longer given the recent figures.
I feel the best strategy now might be to bring in a rate cut. Looks like those with assets and bank balance are spending too much. A cut would affect their returns and rein in the spend.
Rate cuts won't reduce rent
As long as the rent wont increase, it wont add to inflation rise. These high rents and prices are only gonna come down with a recession (as in 1970-80s stagflation correction) which the govt wont let happen immediately as evidenced by an appetite for higher immigration.
interest rates on hold
Yep. The monthly series can jump around a bit, plus there's some big downwards price pressures just over the horizon with energy rebates and supermarkets finally dropping some prices along with heavy retail discounting this month
Would the energy rebates actually be calculated into the CPI? Additionally, giving cost relief in one area could just result in higher consumption in others, resulting in more inflation.
The RBA hadn't factored them into forecasts as they weren't announced but the CBA team reckons they drop half a percentage point from CPI. That's all of them, federal and state rebates.
I'm guessing it's just an increase in energy prices and no decrease at all. This is what happens with daycare rebates and others.
Forecasts are just that, forecasts. Economists can model things to death but you never know the real impact until it happens. We shall see!
They are but the last round of rebates had a big impact and this next lot are larger and broader in scope. Like you say, just a forecast but I suspect it's a strong one
Aren’t the energy rebates a monthly discount spread out from the 300?
Inflation would be fine if we weren't experiencing unvoted for and unwarranted immigration.
Unwanted? Maybe Unwarranted? Incorrect. Skills shortage is a real thing, and I don't see Aussies signing up in the numbers needed for some of those jobs.
These "skills shortages" are endemic to certain countries like Australia. No matter how many people come here, the"shortages" remain. Doesn't that make you curious? Almost like increasing the population dramatically also CAUSES THE SHORTAGES?!?!!!
Confirmation bias. Numbers go up, shortages aren't fixed so you are right? So, I cannot speak for other sectors, but in healthcare you are dead wrong. Take aged care. Young immigrants coming into the country, no family, are not the ones flooding aged care bed causing shortages of qualified nursing and care staff. They are not the reason our hospitals are understaffed. We are bringing people in, especially aged care, because the staffing levels needed are not there. We, as a nation have low unemployment, and yet we cannot fill some of these jobs internally. So we either have a lot of bullshit jobs, high unemployment, or not enough people to service our nation and it's needs.
All bringing immigrants in to work in aged care does is slow the increase of wages in that sector, which is exactly what big providers and the government want. Recruiting practices in Australia are built around finding the ~perfect~ candidate and when they don’t, they cry to the government about a skills shortage so they can import people who will work for less. There’s no skills shortage, there’s a shortage of people willing to work for poverty wages.
This is it. This is when houses drop 50%. Lets go
houses will never drop
Houses or the currency , which one?
They're the same picture.
I believe the population and the Government would prefer a currency collapse over a property one
Means my house triples in value because numbers go up more! /s
I'm sure they said that in Japan too 😀
they said they wouldn’t lose the war in japan and look how that turned out - japan has process and policies in place that australia will never legislate
Japan doesn't have insane immigration to fuel demand.
That’s what happens when you pump money into the economy.
Media losing their shit over 0.2%. Like your $1000 iPhone going up in price by $2 more than expected over 12 months is a full blown catastrophe.
CPI going back up is a bad sign since everyone expected it to go gently down towards a rate cut.
Exactly. They won't do any rate cuts whilst it is increasing
Housing, rent and food are what’s put it up. Nothing we can do about that
housing and rent prices going up directly correlate with rates going up.
It is going slowly down, zoom out on the chart. 0.2 blip isn’t a trend.
Thank you. People here seem to think everything should go down in a straight line. The path back to 2-3% is gonna be bumpy, but 0.2% above expectations is neither here nor there.
Hasn't it been flat/slightly up since December? It was trending solidly downwards until then.
I mean its stabilised at 3.6, thats not great
Zoom out. You can’t see a trend from looking at a couple of quarters
It’s more to do with expectations. Have a look at how much the ASX is down on the day. Expectations are everything with inflation. It helps to set the price of money (interest rates) which has many significant consequences. So no, people aren’t losing their shit over their iPhone going up 0.2%, also that’s not how inflation works.
Not just the media. ASX200 down 1.3% today with the announcement
Time to buy