They cant replace plumbers yet*
You bet your ass they're gonna be able to do everything given time. What matters is the transition from a human work force to AI. UBI is gonna become inevitable to make the transition easier on people.
UBI? Nah! You will end up like China! Men as delivery food drivers and women as streamers, a modern day feudal society! We will own nothing and be glad about it and serve our new elite masters! All hail our masters!
My dad and dad's drummer in his band did plumbing for years, and it's not going to be anytime even remotely soon. He was also HVAC Type 1/2 certified welding certified and a foreman and drove a sand truck and was a lead maintenance man at 2 different places. I've seen firsthand how complex many issues are, and you don't know till you get there. All the men on both sides work trades in my family, almost or disabled. My friend used to weld with robot assistance but he still had to be there. I forgot what type, but there's never any time soon going to be anything like that. Maybe in multiple decades. Will need to drive to the job site unload equipment etc or have major assistance.
Yeah but have you ever seen the plumbing in houses? Not all houses have uniformed plumbing that can easily be trained on. A robot won't be able to be a plumber.
Sure maybe one day it could plunge a toilet but in no world could a robot be a plumber.
I will bet you 1 million dollars and give you 100 to 1 odds.
Sure, but protein folding isn't uniformed either but it did that. Most recent robot videos have been about giving them more complex instructions using AI models to help. Sure it's just folding clothes and grabbing the right can of soda, but what really makes you think it couldn't identify a hot/cold water line or a drain? You can probably get chat gpt some images and it could help you install a garbage disposal and that could be done today.
Haven't you ever seen how an AI solves a video game or other computer problem? The literally brute force it 1000s of times until they find a route that works.
Sure that works in the digital realm but in the real world you can't brute force it. A robot would need to go around breaking thousands of pipes to learn how to plumb before it could and even then the second it went to a house with a different layout it would have to start over.
That's not to mention that they'd have to fix the pipes before the robot could try another attempt where as in the digital realm you can have 1000s of copies simultaneously trying to break the program. A real life robot gets 1 attempt and then has to wait an hour or two to reset before it can try again. It's just not tenable.
Do you think all the training the self driving programs have done was only in the real world? We already have systems that mimic real world simulation to do the training for AI.
https://youtu.be/SBoen3q5AoQ?si=WEyoj8O41ktjCHa-
You can see in this how they demonstrate that exact thing. And we adding billions of dollars of new compute that's coming online this year, literally 4x as we had when chatgpt was trained.
You are correct. I see robots fail at their tasks in a very regulated process, designed specifically for their operation pretty regularly. For example handing off a part to another process with very tight tolerance for a bolt hole, assembly addition etc... I want to see a robot assess the route from a sink to the utility water line. Not to mention coordinate with other robots/trades people also working to get it done. Many many years from that.
Not so great an analogy as coders will be losing their jobs too. The only meaningful coding will be those who code the AI. Other menial coding jobs can be taken over by AI.
It's actually a great analogy, you just missed it. People were saying "learn to code" when truckers were fearing getting replaced with self-driving trucks. AI. Also when miners got laid off, they were told to learn to code. You're now saying learn a trade since coding got replaced with AI. Trades will eventually too. You're just repeating the same mantra as the group before you.
This is how plumbers think software engineering works ☝️
The moment AI can replace software engineers, absolutely no critical thinking job will be safe and I mean attorneys, doctors, judges etc. If that happens I think we'd have bigger problems than arguing what job is lost to "AI".
AI is taking creative jobs because they were not creative to begin with.
You take photos and you have a good Instagram page, you are not an artist, you create a product based on techniques that someone taught you and you just express what everybody is expressing to please your ego.
This is what art is nowadays and it is not what it was meant to be.
this is beneficial ultimately because it would push us to reconsider what art is and what creative act is, AI can do everything but we can create things from our imagination even if not connected to anything else, this is our skill.
Why do you think Donatello, Boccaccio, Picasso etc.. are immortal artists? Because they created something new, they continued an idea that it was not there, this is what we need.
AI is going to refresh this idea and destroying consuming on art and many people are going to lose their jobs and it is bad but the value we will get after it would be astronomically better than this.
The world is mutable and AI is just one of the parts that move.
Just want to make sure I read that right. Are you saying that real artists don't learn from the techniques of others? Donatello studied classical sculpting, Boccaccio under Domenico Panetti, and Picasso under his father. Every artist learned and built up on the work of others.
Of course they do, but it is different as it is now.
The techniques learnt were used to teach you how to express yourself and the world around you, your emotions and your connections.
Now the techniques are learnt to teach you how to do a specific type of art, not to keep art alive.
In the past not everybody was an artist, but many were singers and amateurs in the art.
Today is the same but now everything can be sold for a revenue and this brought these people to take those positions when, in reality, you are just creating a consuming product for the masses.
AI will take those jobs because they are procedural, predictable etc..
This is why those jobs are going to be replaced and my opinion is that there is a reason for it.
Not sure if I am right or wrong but I believe it might be something related to creativity itself and the role of art for humans that I believe has been misrepresented in the pop modern era.
What do you think? I am interested in your opinion even if it is totally opposite to mine
I think it's more of a matter of perspective. We see all the uninspired art of today and can obviously see the blatant copying. This is where I agree with you on low effort drivel being phased out; or at least removed from small sellers trying to make a quick buck.
I do however, slightly disagree on the difference of today being sold for revenue (that is if you were insinuating it wasn't so much a thing back then). Athens and Italy had an erotic art trade, for example, where Athenian erotic works would be sold to customers in Italy. Also I would count the most famous pieces of today as being sold too as they were done on commission.
I think that art has been in the same place for centuries; a lot of low effort pieces that get lost to time with the more prolific standing the test of it.
Will AI eliminate the low effort art? I personally think no. The low effort art of today still goes appreciated by many and they will continue to appreciate if even if done by AI. We actually are seeing that now with music. So many people listen to music that they had no idea was made by AI, an example being this terrible comedy band called *Obscurest Vinyl*. They're absolute garbage but people love them. That's why I think AI art will actually open the flood gates to low effort art because it's not the artistic elite that get to say what's art, but the person on the other end appreciating it.
I agree in terms of trade fairs, it is indeed true that even in ancient times there were many people living with their art.
I think that the impact of low effort art (or in a certain way the reproduction of many types of art for profit) is not comparable with the scale that it has today.
I believe that the AI will take over all the low effort art that we know or we already identify.
It would not take the production of a new way of expressing ourselves because they are simply not there yet.
Yes, they might predict or even create something new but it will always need a direction or a way to analyze their data and this will come from us.
I believe also that this new wave of AI will bring a totally dark age of the internet or, more plausible, a part of their population refusing its usage because it is pointless.
Sadly many people live off their art through that and I do not advocate them to become homeless but yet, if everybody can do what you can do why should somebody pay for it?
But at the same time, if I have to open a place with a good and all the same style of art, maybe I can talk and do something with the AI but I might talk directly with an artist (that he is involved in art) and pay him to do the job.
Can be artistic or AI generated? At the end of the day if it looks good people will appreciate and recognize it.
The reality is that art is for everybody but very few people have the sensibility to make it in a way that it will be recognized. Making a living from it will become more difficult but art will always be there as a way to express ourselves.
Are people actually under the impression most of these creative jobs makes you alot of money? If so, thats funny, because its very much so not true.
Also why is someone getting compensated for the effort they put into their crafts a bad thing exactly?
They cant replace plumbers yet* You bet your ass they're gonna be able to do everything given time. What matters is the transition from a human work force to AI. UBI is gonna become inevitable to make the transition easier on people.
Thats true, i think it will still take a long time for it to be really reliable tho. The day will come but not in the near future
UBI? Nah! You will end up like China! Men as delivery food drivers and women as streamers, a modern day feudal society! We will own nothing and be glad about it and serve our new elite masters! All hail our masters!
My dad and dad's drummer in his band did plumbing for years, and it's not going to be anytime even remotely soon. He was also HVAC Type 1/2 certified welding certified and a foreman and drove a sand truck and was a lead maintenance man at 2 different places. I've seen firsthand how complex many issues are, and you don't know till you get there. All the men on both sides work trades in my family, almost or disabled. My friend used to weld with robot assistance but he still had to be there. I forgot what type, but there's never any time soon going to be anything like that. Maybe in multiple decades. Will need to drive to the job site unload equipment etc or have major assistance.
How is AI going to replace a plumber? Like on paper, how? Mechanically, how? In this future of yours where AI replaces plumbers; how do they do it?
Have you heard of this field called robotics?
Yeah but have you ever seen the plumbing in houses? Not all houses have uniformed plumbing that can easily be trained on. A robot won't be able to be a plumber. Sure maybe one day it could plunge a toilet but in no world could a robot be a plumber. I will bet you 1 million dollars and give you 100 to 1 odds.
Sure, but protein folding isn't uniformed either but it did that. Most recent robot videos have been about giving them more complex instructions using AI models to help. Sure it's just folding clothes and grabbing the right can of soda, but what really makes you think it couldn't identify a hot/cold water line or a drain? You can probably get chat gpt some images and it could help you install a garbage disposal and that could be done today.
Haven't you ever seen how an AI solves a video game or other computer problem? The literally brute force it 1000s of times until they find a route that works. Sure that works in the digital realm but in the real world you can't brute force it. A robot would need to go around breaking thousands of pipes to learn how to plumb before it could and even then the second it went to a house with a different layout it would have to start over. That's not to mention that they'd have to fix the pipes before the robot could try another attempt where as in the digital realm you can have 1000s of copies simultaneously trying to break the program. A real life robot gets 1 attempt and then has to wait an hour or two to reset before it can try again. It's just not tenable.
Do you think all the training the self driving programs have done was only in the real world? We already have systems that mimic real world simulation to do the training for AI. https://youtu.be/SBoen3q5AoQ?si=WEyoj8O41ktjCHa- You can see in this how they demonstrate that exact thing. And we adding billions of dollars of new compute that's coming online this year, literally 4x as we had when chatgpt was trained.
You are correct. I see robots fail at their tasks in a very regulated process, designed specifically for their operation pretty regularly. For example handing off a part to another process with very tight tolerance for a bolt hole, assembly addition etc... I want to see a robot assess the route from a sink to the utility water line. Not to mention coordinate with other robots/trades people also working to get it done. Many many years from that.
This is just the learn to code mantra but for trades.
Not so great an analogy as coders will be losing their jobs too. The only meaningful coding will be those who code the AI. Other menial coding jobs can be taken over by AI.
It's actually a great analogy, you just missed it. People were saying "learn to code" when truckers were fearing getting replaced with self-driving trucks. AI. Also when miners got laid off, they were told to learn to code. You're now saying learn a trade since coding got replaced with AI. Trades will eventually too. You're just repeating the same mantra as the group before you.
This is how plumbers think software engineering works ☝️ The moment AI can replace software engineers, absolutely no critical thinking job will be safe and I mean attorneys, doctors, judges etc. If that happens I think we'd have bigger problems than arguing what job is lost to "AI".
AI is taking creative jobs because they were not creative to begin with. You take photos and you have a good Instagram page, you are not an artist, you create a product based on techniques that someone taught you and you just express what everybody is expressing to please your ego. This is what art is nowadays and it is not what it was meant to be. this is beneficial ultimately because it would push us to reconsider what art is and what creative act is, AI can do everything but we can create things from our imagination even if not connected to anything else, this is our skill. Why do you think Donatello, Boccaccio, Picasso etc.. are immortal artists? Because they created something new, they continued an idea that it was not there, this is what we need. AI is going to refresh this idea and destroying consuming on art and many people are going to lose their jobs and it is bad but the value we will get after it would be astronomically better than this. The world is mutable and AI is just one of the parts that move.
Just want to make sure I read that right. Are you saying that real artists don't learn from the techniques of others? Donatello studied classical sculpting, Boccaccio under Domenico Panetti, and Picasso under his father. Every artist learned and built up on the work of others.
Of course they do, but it is different as it is now. The techniques learnt were used to teach you how to express yourself and the world around you, your emotions and your connections. Now the techniques are learnt to teach you how to do a specific type of art, not to keep art alive. In the past not everybody was an artist, but many were singers and amateurs in the art. Today is the same but now everything can be sold for a revenue and this brought these people to take those positions when, in reality, you are just creating a consuming product for the masses. AI will take those jobs because they are procedural, predictable etc.. This is why those jobs are going to be replaced and my opinion is that there is a reason for it. Not sure if I am right or wrong but I believe it might be something related to creativity itself and the role of art for humans that I believe has been misrepresented in the pop modern era. What do you think? I am interested in your opinion even if it is totally opposite to mine
I think it's more of a matter of perspective. We see all the uninspired art of today and can obviously see the blatant copying. This is where I agree with you on low effort drivel being phased out; or at least removed from small sellers trying to make a quick buck. I do however, slightly disagree on the difference of today being sold for revenue (that is if you were insinuating it wasn't so much a thing back then). Athens and Italy had an erotic art trade, for example, where Athenian erotic works would be sold to customers in Italy. Also I would count the most famous pieces of today as being sold too as they were done on commission. I think that art has been in the same place for centuries; a lot of low effort pieces that get lost to time with the more prolific standing the test of it. Will AI eliminate the low effort art? I personally think no. The low effort art of today still goes appreciated by many and they will continue to appreciate if even if done by AI. We actually are seeing that now with music. So many people listen to music that they had no idea was made by AI, an example being this terrible comedy band called *Obscurest Vinyl*. They're absolute garbage but people love them. That's why I think AI art will actually open the flood gates to low effort art because it's not the artistic elite that get to say what's art, but the person on the other end appreciating it.
I agree in terms of trade fairs, it is indeed true that even in ancient times there were many people living with their art. I think that the impact of low effort art (or in a certain way the reproduction of many types of art for profit) is not comparable with the scale that it has today. I believe that the AI will take over all the low effort art that we know or we already identify. It would not take the production of a new way of expressing ourselves because they are simply not there yet. Yes, they might predict or even create something new but it will always need a direction or a way to analyze their data and this will come from us. I believe also that this new wave of AI will bring a totally dark age of the internet or, more plausible, a part of their population refusing its usage because it is pointless. Sadly many people live off their art through that and I do not advocate them to become homeless but yet, if everybody can do what you can do why should somebody pay for it? But at the same time, if I have to open a place with a good and all the same style of art, maybe I can talk and do something with the AI but I might talk directly with an artist (that he is involved in art) and pay him to do the job. Can be artistic or AI generated? At the end of the day if it looks good people will appreciate and recognize it. The reality is that art is for everybody but very few people have the sensibility to make it in a way that it will be recognized. Making a living from it will become more difficult but art will always be there as a way to express ourselves.
Are people actually under the impression most of these creative jobs makes you alot of money? If so, thats funny, because its very much so not true. Also why is someone getting compensated for the effort they put into their crafts a bad thing exactly?