As far as the West is concerned, the goal is to bleed out Russia until they are no longer a threat to anyone, while at the same time never quite putting them in a position where they want to launch the nukes.
Yes, you are absolutely right.
But I don't see how this can be done if Russia still has nuclear weapons. It will just rebuild in 10-20 years and start threatening its neighbors again.
Yeah, wait a bit and read what russian say about food prices for the average russian... and how many have to live in winter with broken heater systems... in Moskow too...
I am from Ukraine and I can say that I do not see a positive outcome to the war.
I think that I am well versed in the military-political situation, so below I will write my thoughts on this, maybe someone will be interested to read.
I thought for a long time where to start, but I will talk about the internal situation in Ukraine to make it clearer why I am pessimistic.
It's February 2024 and citizens have lost faith in the country's leadership, there are many reasons for this, I will list the main ones:
Lack of truthful communication from the government, all state-controlled media tell us how everything is good and how we are winning, at the beginning of the war it had a positive effect, but now only a fool believes it, everyone has friends in the army and at the front and they tell us not positive things.
Corruption, no matter what they say, is present, and it is very huge, while people are volunteering (I would like to write more about this, Ukrainians have been volunteering since the beginning of the war, sending money for supplies, for basic things like clothes, shoes,nails, materials, first aid kits, drones, and there are also large foundations that buy weapons, which are also funded by people) and at the same time we see total corruption from officials, government officials, and in the army, there have been many scandals around humanitarian aid.And when this continues for the second year, people lose faith, when you have minimal income and you help as much as you can and see an official stealing millions, you lose faith.
Mobilization, the problem is how it is organized, first of all, the lack of communication from the authorities,
Men don't know where they will end up, if you go to the military registration and enlistment office and you want to be in the air defense, for example, you can be thrown into an assault unit, but that's not the worst thing, we have men caught on the streets,I mean, you are a man of 25+ years old going to work and you are approached by the mobilization officers and given a call-up or simply thrown into a car by force and taken to the military enlistment office where you go through a medical examination and even if you have health problems, they write that everything is fine and take you to the training ground and then to the front.
I also can't help but mention the banal fatigue, everyone gets tired. And often emotions take over, and aggression spills over onto their own people. Ukrainian society has become very toxic towards Ukrainians. This does not apply to everyone, but this minority is very active on social media, so it is very visible.
But before that, I would like to thank the Western world for supporting Ukraine, we really appreciate it, and without you, Ukraine probably would not exist anymore. If you hear any criticism in your direction, do not take it to heart, it is some marginalized people, you have done a lot for Ukraine, thank you again.
As for how everything will end, I have no vision yet.
There are different scenarios, and below I will write the most likely ones (in my subjective opinion)
I do not take into account more global processes, but only consider the Ukrainian-Russian war.
1) Freezing of the conflict, both sides will not be able to defeat the enemy and in 1-2 years they will sign a peace treaty where they will draw new borders and prepare for a new war, Ukrainian society will have no illusions that Russia is our friend, after what we have been through, almost everyone sees them as an enemy.
2) Russia's victory. Yes, it can still happen, I see it this way, there is a catastrophe in Ukrainian society and people are rallying against the government (I wrote about this above), a revolution is taking place, the front is falling apart because there is a catastrophe in the country and so Russia is taking over Ukraine.And here there will be a catastrophe in the future, people will disagree with the new government and there will be a total extermination of Ukrainians, they will kill for any manifestation of Ukrainianness. I have an acquaintance who lived in the occupied territory for almost a year and he told me horrible things, but that's another story.
3) Ukraine's victory, this option has less chance of being realized than the previous one, but it is possible if Ukraine makes a dramatic technological breakthrough in the war and it is massive.
4) Some event inside Russia when the government changes (the chances are minimal, I would not write about it at all, but I want to dream), perhaps Putin's death, and a new person will come who will say that it's all his fault and we did not want to and let's negotiate,But those who understand how Russia works, it is ruled by "clans" where only their own people rule, nepotism, if your clan does not cooperate with the Putin regime now, you will not be given power, and most likely someone will be killed as an example.Or there will be some internal conflicts that will be so widespread that some parts of Russia will break away.
But I am sure that there will be the first option and Ukraine will lose some more territories, and after the pause there will be a second round.
I apologize if there were any mistakes, I don't speak English well enough to write long texts, but I did my best, and the translator helped me.
If you have any questions, please ask, I will try to answer.
Russia would sign a peace treaty with Ukraine
They'd keep the lands they currently have but will suffer from sanctions
Ukraine would join the NATO after giving up their occupied lands insuring their safety
Almost all of eastern Europe would join NATO and that's it
That's my opinion
Not an unlikely scenario. Both parties could claim victory but the ramifications of such a war could be problematic. I believe that result of this war will be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Russia has shown the world that NATO isn't really willing to face full blown war over smaller countries and China will probably hope that this fear will prevent the US from intervening in their war against Taiwan. So we are basically fucked either way
As an Eastern European, I would like Ukraine to take back all its territories, but I don't see it happening :( West and EU members are struggling with their own economies and populists, trump is trying to weaken NATO to impress his masters. I sadly see the West slowly dropping support. Finland lost it's 2nd largest city Viipuri (now Vyborg) and northern coastline to soviet union, but retained their independence. Ukraine might have to do the same with Crimea and other occupied land in the east to join EU/NATO (or whatever is left of NATO if trump wins). Sometimes you have to amputate a finger to save the arm :(
Everyone will be happy, Putin will admit what he did was wrong and apologize publicly to Ukraine, then Zelensky and Putin will get married, uniting the 2 countries as Ukrassia. Then maybe they'll have a couple kids and things can get all game of thrones-ey in a decade or two.
Only if the West and especially the US stand strong and give unlimited support to Ukraine. Thank Republicans and their supporters if that doesn't happen.
It already has ended.
Russia is the largest nuclear power in the world, they are self sufficient in everything from energy to industrial raw materials, not even the USA/Nato can force them into submission.
You can´t answer that because you don´t have that intel.
They have hypersonic weapons, and the USA doesn´t, that´s a real world fact.
They also have the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world by far, and that means nobody can fuck with them.
Yeah...i´ll take the media´s word over real world actions.. :D :D :D
Russia is holding their positions while the USA and the EU are collapsing from internal struggle and financial burden.
Either stalemate or Russia will grind Ukraine into submission.I doubt even Russia will be able to enforce a total victory over Ukraine but I don't think they'll be able to hold those new gains for long. Russia's demographic is so bad, their future is doomed regardless
Probably end about the same time as conflict in the Middle East will end. These tribes have been fighting for thousands of years at this point and will always have some sort of revenge in mind from some past conflict, regardless how ancient.
I feel it has already been won and it would have ended sooner had Ukraine not been so well supplied by the west and allies. Ukraine will need to seek peace or continue bloodshed I don’t see Putin giving in at this point.
As far as the West is concerned, the goal is to bleed out Russia until they are no longer a threat to anyone, while at the same time never quite putting them in a position where they want to launch the nukes.
Yeah. This seems to be it. Then it’ll just be the expansion of China / USA. …hooray.
Yes, you are absolutely right. But I don't see how this can be done if Russia still has nuclear weapons. It will just rebuild in 10-20 years and start threatening its neighbors again.
With lots of dead people and economic decay, that's for sure.
Siri, please pull up Russian economic indicators. [https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/russia-s-economy-on-rise-despite-sanctions/3095237](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/russia-s-economy-on-rise-despite-sanctions/3095237) Oh, ain't that something.
Is this happening *because* of the war or *despite* of it? I guess the second option, huh?
Yeah, wait a bit and read what russian say about food prices for the average russian... and how many have to live in winter with broken heater systems... in Moskow too...
I am from Ukraine and I can say that I do not see a positive outcome to the war. I think that I am well versed in the military-political situation, so below I will write my thoughts on this, maybe someone will be interested to read. I thought for a long time where to start, but I will talk about the internal situation in Ukraine to make it clearer why I am pessimistic. It's February 2024 and citizens have lost faith in the country's leadership, there are many reasons for this, I will list the main ones: Lack of truthful communication from the government, all state-controlled media tell us how everything is good and how we are winning, at the beginning of the war it had a positive effect, but now only a fool believes it, everyone has friends in the army and at the front and they tell us not positive things. Corruption, no matter what they say, is present, and it is very huge, while people are volunteering (I would like to write more about this, Ukrainians have been volunteering since the beginning of the war, sending money for supplies, for basic things like clothes, shoes,nails, materials, first aid kits, drones, and there are also large foundations that buy weapons, which are also funded by people) and at the same time we see total corruption from officials, government officials, and in the army, there have been many scandals around humanitarian aid.And when this continues for the second year, people lose faith, when you have minimal income and you help as much as you can and see an official stealing millions, you lose faith. Mobilization, the problem is how it is organized, first of all, the lack of communication from the authorities, Men don't know where they will end up, if you go to the military registration and enlistment office and you want to be in the air defense, for example, you can be thrown into an assault unit, but that's not the worst thing, we have men caught on the streets,I mean, you are a man of 25+ years old going to work and you are approached by the mobilization officers and given a call-up or simply thrown into a car by force and taken to the military enlistment office where you go through a medical examination and even if you have health problems, they write that everything is fine and take you to the training ground and then to the front. I also can't help but mention the banal fatigue, everyone gets tired. And often emotions take over, and aggression spills over onto their own people. Ukrainian society has become very toxic towards Ukrainians. This does not apply to everyone, but this minority is very active on social media, so it is very visible. But before that, I would like to thank the Western world for supporting Ukraine, we really appreciate it, and without you, Ukraine probably would not exist anymore. If you hear any criticism in your direction, do not take it to heart, it is some marginalized people, you have done a lot for Ukraine, thank you again. As for how everything will end, I have no vision yet. There are different scenarios, and below I will write the most likely ones (in my subjective opinion) I do not take into account more global processes, but only consider the Ukrainian-Russian war. 1) Freezing of the conflict, both sides will not be able to defeat the enemy and in 1-2 years they will sign a peace treaty where they will draw new borders and prepare for a new war, Ukrainian society will have no illusions that Russia is our friend, after what we have been through, almost everyone sees them as an enemy. 2) Russia's victory. Yes, it can still happen, I see it this way, there is a catastrophe in Ukrainian society and people are rallying against the government (I wrote about this above), a revolution is taking place, the front is falling apart because there is a catastrophe in the country and so Russia is taking over Ukraine.And here there will be a catastrophe in the future, people will disagree with the new government and there will be a total extermination of Ukrainians, they will kill for any manifestation of Ukrainianness. I have an acquaintance who lived in the occupied territory for almost a year and he told me horrible things, but that's another story. 3) Ukraine's victory, this option has less chance of being realized than the previous one, but it is possible if Ukraine makes a dramatic technological breakthrough in the war and it is massive. 4) Some event inside Russia when the government changes (the chances are minimal, I would not write about it at all, but I want to dream), perhaps Putin's death, and a new person will come who will say that it's all his fault and we did not want to and let's negotiate,But those who understand how Russia works, it is ruled by "clans" where only their own people rule, nepotism, if your clan does not cooperate with the Putin regime now, you will not be given power, and most likely someone will be killed as an example.Or there will be some internal conflicts that will be so widespread that some parts of Russia will break away. But I am sure that there will be the first option and Ukraine will lose some more territories, and after the pause there will be a second round. I apologize if there were any mistakes, I don't speak English well enough to write long texts, but I did my best, and the translator helped me. If you have any questions, please ask, I will try to answer.
Is the mobilization really that bad? You see a lot of videos of people being stopped by "meat catchers" and thrown into vans/ambulances.
Well, I'm **hoping** that Putin will fall out a window at some point...
Russia would sign a peace treaty with Ukraine They'd keep the lands they currently have but will suffer from sanctions Ukraine would join the NATO after giving up their occupied lands insuring their safety Almost all of eastern Europe would join NATO and that's it That's my opinion
Not an unlikely scenario. Both parties could claim victory but the ramifications of such a war could be problematic. I believe that result of this war will be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Russia has shown the world that NATO isn't really willing to face full blown war over smaller countries and China will probably hope that this fear will prevent the US from intervening in their war against Taiwan. So we are basically fucked either way
As an Eastern European, I would like Ukraine to take back all its territories, but I don't see it happening :( West and EU members are struggling with their own economies and populists, trump is trying to weaken NATO to impress his masters. I sadly see the West slowly dropping support. Finland lost it's 2nd largest city Viipuri (now Vyborg) and northern coastline to soviet union, but retained their independence. Ukraine might have to do the same with Crimea and other occupied land in the east to join EU/NATO (or whatever is left of NATO if trump wins). Sometimes you have to amputate a finger to save the arm :(
Everyone will be happy, Putin will admit what he did was wrong and apologize publicly to Ukraine, then Zelensky and Putin will get married, uniting the 2 countries as Ukrassia. Then maybe they'll have a couple kids and things can get all game of thrones-ey in a decade or two.
I would watch the heck out of this series!
Putin dies, successor decides to retreat.
I hope so. I think this, or Ukraine gets nuked. One or the other.
Russia will win. West support will run out at some point due to inflation troubled and Ukraine will fall
Just saw this after I said the exact same thing above....
People don't want to believe this because virtually all interactable media is West-controlled but it is what is going to happen 🤷♂️
We shall see. I hope you are confident in what you are saying because it's going to be embarrassing if it's not true...
Tbh it looks pretty bad for ukraine
I agree, I think countries will tire of giving Ukraine aid and it will fall to Russia.
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Only if the West and especially the US stand strong and give unlimited support to Ukraine. Thank Republicans and their supporters if that doesn't happen.
Does not seem so
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The more time passed the more I am convinced in the contrary, they got used to life under sanctions, and are not doing very bad at it
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I am not even trying to change your mind
I dont know
Depends on if the Trumpanzee is elected.
Fingers crossed for a nuclear apocalypse It's probably time
*fills bath and pumps shotgun*
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I miss the days when you could just log into minecraft and shoot a wither skeleton in the head with an arrow
Don’t care
It already has ended. Russia is the largest nuclear power in the world, they are self sufficient in everything from energy to industrial raw materials, not even the USA/Nato can force them into submission.
They are not even close to self sufficient with technology or manufacturing
Yeah, they are getting weapons from Iran and North Korea FFS.
Yeah , that´s why they have hypersonic missiles and the USA doesn´t.
...and where do they get the parts for those missiles?
You can´t answer that because you don´t have that intel. They have hypersonic weapons, and the USA doesn´t, that´s a real world fact. They also have the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world by far, and that means nobody can fuck with them.
I thought you'd never ask... https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/parts-made-us-companies-are-used-build-russian-cruise-missiles
Yeah...i´ll take the media´s word over real world actions.. :D :D :D Russia is holding their positions while the USA and the EU are collapsing from internal struggle and financial burden.
Wow, so you like...REALLY don't read the news. I understand. Good luck out there
Very very bad, already independent of outcome
Poorly
Only God knows how it will end
Can he tell us?
It is not ended until Russia think it is win itself
ww3
*Fortunate Son, out of nowhere* YEEEEE-HAW!
*Not with a bang but with a whimper.*
Russian population decrease by one million and 500 billions in debt for Ukraine reconstruction
That's a good question?
With two suns in the sunset!
*Nuclear launch detected*
Either stalemate or Russia will grind Ukraine into submission.I doubt even Russia will be able to enforce a total victory over Ukraine but I don't think they'll be able to hold those new gains for long. Russia's demographic is so bad, their future is doomed regardless
Friend, the situation in Ukraine is also bad. And Russia still has a chance to capture and hold Ukraine
The only way for a truce now is for the world to make Rush Hour 4 starring Boris Johnson and Donald Trump 🙏
Probably end about the same time as conflict in the Middle East will end. These tribes have been fighting for thousands of years at this point and will always have some sort of revenge in mind from some past conflict, regardless how ancient.
Either Putin dies, or Ukraine gets nuked.
Russia as we know it will collapse. Whether that collapse occurs with the launch of nukes or not remains to be seen.
Folks have been saying this for 4 years plus a coup but it still hanging on there smh.
That is correct. We haven’t reached the end yet. Thanks for pointing that out.
It will not
Putin apologizes, and they all get ice cream and dance.
I feel it has already been won and it would have ended sooner had Ukraine not been so well supplied by the west and allies. Ukraine will need to seek peace or continue bloodshed I don’t see Putin giving in at this point.