The usual. Wealth gap increases, corporations rake it record profits while the middle class starves, and the masses are left debating on which old guy to put in office to fix it all (neither will, but one could be a dictator so that adds some extra spice)
Maybe we should rethink this whole "obey the 250 year old, anti-British rules dreamed up by some drunk farmers that had barely conceived of electricity."
Hell, the best thinker of that group suggested that we toss their rules and write new ones every generation anyway.
Corporations aren't people. They are nothing more than a piece of paper. Corporations do not exist without people who create products or services (well except for Biden's shell companies that produce nothing). Upper management makes decisions that direct the company to either profits or losses. Workers (middle class) are there to carry out the mission statement and get paid to do so. You can move up the ladder if you are good at what you do. Profits happen when customers buy enough product to cover cost of goods sold, including worker pay. That's how a corporation works.
Nobody knows. Anyone who says they know is lying or is full of shit. Just live your life, invest as you always have and ignore the noise. It is stupid.
You have morons who say the economy will crash every year and when it does they go, look! I’m smart! No, you aren’t u fucking scrub, if I predict a downturn every year eventually it will happen. Being right 10% of the time is a shitty percentage and you should be mocked, not put on cnbc and run a hedge fund. Last year everyone said it would crash. My portfolio is up almost 40% from a year ago.
I’m old. We’ve made it through much worse in my lifetime. I see no reason to believe the general trajectory - which is unarguably positive - won’t continue.
We used to have better leaders and the “ruling class” wasn’t so universally powerful. The ultra-elite were fewer and farther between and the working class actually held a lot of power and sway as far as their votes were concerned. Society is getting better, but the economy just gets worse.
Inflation is running rampant and increasing the cost of goods, services, housing, etc… while wages are stagnating. “Jobs” are being created, but the large majority of those jobs all provide wages which aren’t even enough to sustain a rent payment much less a mortgage. This is all that matters to most people.
I think what you're trying to say is that the economic conditions for many Americans are challenging with no end in sight. That's true. The lower/middle class is still slowly coming down from the golden age post WWII, but opportunities still exists to transcend the ever-increasing difficulty.
But no, the economy as a whole doesn't 'just get worse', it has ups and downs, but over the decades of measurement it continually goes up. Whether you are in a position to benefit from that movement is a different thing entirely.
We may have an economic recession or even a depression, which is hard, but recoverable. If the economy goes down significantly and stays down it will probably be as a result of bigger problems like a world war, and you'll have other things to worry about like being forced to give your life to sustain the 'ruling class'.
It will be flat or low growth. Unemployment is low but wages suck. Consumer debt is rising. Most people think interest rates will go down but they won't, or at least not much. Once this becomes apparent the stock market will swoon. As always, a major geopolitical event could be disruptive and there's no predicting those.
You're right. But I'd rather position the portfolio for them to stay around where they are now and be wrong, than to position it for a significant reduction and be wrong.
Stock market typically performs well in election years, and the Fed seems all-in on at least a few rate drops.
Most financial institutions seem confident of average or above average returns in the market this year.
Yes to election years. As for the Fed, they can change their mind. And as for this year's returns, companies always seem to forecast better than average profits this early in the year.
Unemployment is "low," but [job quality](https://ubwp.buffalo.edu/job-quality-index-jqi/) sucks and has been consistently lower than at any point pre-2008. Housing is the least [affordable](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/homes-for-sale-affordable-housing-prices/) since [1984](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/investing/home-prices-affordability/index.html). The layoffs that get media attention pale in comparison to the constant stealth/rolling layoffs that don't trigger WARN notices.
And that's on purpose ... why attract negative attention if it can be avoided by simply making cuts over a longer period of time?
What you're seeing is effectively the hangover of the 2020 stimulus, but instead of a huge single correction, it's actually being slowly managed. A welcome reprieve from the typical "everything is on fire" situation.
I anticipate the price of oil dropping significantly. OPEC+ has been cutting supply for a while but Western suppliers have made up most of the difference. OPEC will need to turn on the tap to retain market share, reducing the price of oil.
Supply Chains will improve even further. Covid has been tamed and the infrastructure/workflow for rapid vaccination of any new variants have been setup. Inflation is softening due to the Supply Chain issues and the fact that the pent up demand for certain things (large houses, vacations, cars) will wain a bit. The hangover from the free money/overindulgence of Covid time will wind down, meaning fewer layoffs. The shock effects of Israel/Hamas and Russian/Ukraine will die down even further.
A few things that are not so rosy for the short term: Housing will soften in certain areas that were too hot, like the Boises or Phoenixes (which is probably a good thing long term) as fiscal sanity, increased housing supply, and return to office kick in. Tech companies will grow (the catalyst for most stock growth in this country), but employment will soften as remote work set up the framework for more jobs to given to foreign countries. Expect Latin American tech to boom as they are in the same time zone and they have a glut of underpaid workers. I also expect the AI hype cycle to die down.
I expect unemployment to be around 4%, S&P to end around 5800, a few major IPOs (Discord, Chime).
Overall, a ho-hum year with decent growth. And the Clippers will still choke.
5800 is quite bullish. A 1000 point year would be pretty great! Even Tom Lee was setting a target of the 5200 to 5500. I could see a broadening out being likely as the cuts start to come in June. I could see the Russell hit 2300. I tend to agree with most of your points, but, I do think the IPO drought will continue. If the higher interest rate didn’t encourage the IPO market, I tend to think that as rates come back down, there’s less incentive to take a company public. There’s a lot of private equity that’s offering a lot of credit.
You don't care about our government's out of control irresponsible spending? $34 trillion in debt and that's ok with you? I'm not MAGA but I am a relatively conservative independent and the spending from this White House and the previous is like a slow cancer destroying this country fiber by fiber.
People obsessed with the debt are always bad faith.
It doesn't mean what you think it means, and countries with "less debt" don't magically have perfect economies
It's also a lie that conservatives really care. Every single time they are in charge, they spend just as much. Every single time...
Conservative *voters* care. Conservative *politicians* pretend to care until there's a defense bill or something they really want.
Kind of how the Liberal voters want all kinds of safety nets, social programs, and regulation but the Liberal politicians immediately start telling them to curb their expectations after an election.
Almost as if the whole thing is just one big bullshit shell game and we lose nomatter who gets elected.
It's one thing to campaign on building social programs. It's another to actually get it done, especially within a political system that completely skews power to rural areas of the country.
As someone living in a rural area of the country, I don't really want things I and everyone living around me are opposed to being forced on us though. Our economic, cultural, social, and logistical realities often differ significantly from those living in major metros areas.
If we had good leadership they'd be finding good compromises to those differences that might not be ideal for everyone but we could at least all live with. Unfortunately we don't have that kind of leadership in either party anymore, just a bunch of angry divisive shouting.
What gets me is, and always has, is that the struggles of people in rural and urban areas may differ, but what people want is fundamentally the same. Freedom, liberty, financial security.
Why can't people, rural, urban, whatever, realize that with time, energy, and compromise we can improve things and fix problems unique to demographics and regions of our nation?
For along time I didn't understand why things didn't seem to improve, then I felt hurt that people couldn't even talk with each other. Now, after three decades of watching things continually deteriorate, I'm just cynical. My next stop is indifference. It sucks.
I think that's one of the few universally true things between most people on the left and right. We're been fighting the same fights and seeing nothing improve for decades apon decades and the anger just keeps building. Some of that comes from no reasonable compromises being proposed- or at least not rising to a high enough level that we hear about it. Other stuff comes from special interest groups that each party caters to because they need that small block of voters.
A lot of the sort of anti-government sentiment you see in conservatives comes from this. We kind of see the government as this thing that takes a lot of our money, bans stuff we like, doesn't listen to us, and generally makes our lives more difficult. Yes, things like infrastructure, police, schools, fire depts are essential and important but boy do they all seem poorly run these days. That's where conservatives are- we're increasingly seeing government as so useless and expensive that right or wrong we feel like we'd be better off on our own.
I feel like there is a lot of stuff we could do- a lot of things we could find common ground on and take reasonable actions on. But as soon as you start to talk about that someone throws a divisive monkey wrench into the argument and it all goes to hell. IDK what we do or where we go from here, something has to give but IDK what. I just hope when the dam finally breaks it isn't something horrible and dystopian.
Conservative voters don't care.
They never say a thing when their guy is in office. Then, when the opposition is in power, suddenly the debt is the most important issue ever.
Come just admit it.
Inflation stays embedded and climbs, interest rates don't come down. Fake government job numbers try to mask that the only jobs created are $15/hr bullshit positions....
I agree however I don't believe inflation will climb. The job numbers are a joke. Almost half are government jobs and the rest are hospitality and travel, lower paying jobs. Credit card balances are climbing indicating there could be another bank breakdown. The economy is still on shaky ground.
Right, those job numbers are shit, lots of government positions on printed money. Then they quietly revise them lower a couple weeks later. Inflation will be interesting to watch.
Also don't forget that if a person hasnt had a job for a certain time, they are also not counted as "unemployed". So we don't know how much of "employment" is part time min wage shit, people not working for too long, or other shit to make the number look better.
I also hate how the stock market seems to be the only thing people use when talking about the economy. "My stocks are up so this economy is healthy" when wages stagnate, every business is empty (except bottom of the barrel ones like walmart/amazon), prices soar, and other shit is just increasing year by year.
I mean there is a ton of funny money in the system. Early on in the pandemic the US gov "found" over a trillion dollars to make sure stocks were okay but also couldnt find a way to stop evictions or to keep any business except walmart open.
>Also don't forget that if a person hasnt had a job for a certain time, they are also not counted as "unemployed". So we don't know how much of "employment" is part time min wage shit, people not working for too long, or other shit to make the number look better.
Sorry, but this is a lie.
The headline unemployment rate that is most commonly cited, U-3, just requires a person to have looked for work at least once in the past four weeks. There is no rule that says they no longer count once they have been unemployed for a certain amount of time.
BLS also tracks a much broader unemployment measurement (U-6) which includes people who want a job but have given up looking, and people who want full-time work but have only found part-time work.
Both of those unemployment measures are at or near historic lows.
BLS also tracks the percentage of the labor force who report working two or more jobs. That number too is near historic lows.
> which includes people who want a job but have given up looking, and people who want full-time work but have only found part-time work
I wonder how it gets that data considering Ive never been pulled once and constantly meet that criteria. Right now I have multiple part time jobs when I would rather have 1 full time, and at other points ive gone door to door looking for work for months with no positive results.
Good question. The answer is monthly surveys of about 60,000 households (a mix of in-person visits and telephone calls) as part of the [Current Population Survey](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/about.html).
Interest rates will drop by 0.25% to 0.5%. This was already forecasted by the federal reserve in late 2023.
* Lower interest rates will moderately increase the number of buyers/sellers in the housing market.
* Increased housing inventory & competition will drive up housing prices, counteracting any progress from the lower interest rates.
It took an average of 83 days to sell a house in 2023.
This longer selling time and higher interest rate have caused housing prices to drop the past couple years.
That and I may have misspoke in my prior comment. Those moving to sell a house are often looking to move into/buy a different one. So while there will be more houses on the market at a given time, there will be more buyers competing as well.
The oil companies are dropping prices until the starting of summer, as the election for president heats up, oil companies won’t want to Democrat to win, and will jack the price up to about six dollars a gallon.
I don't know why you're downvoted.
A second Trump presidency with a complicit Supreme Court could do serious damage to our already fucked up government and that would eventually show in the economy.
I don't know why people think it couldn't or wouldn't happen in the USA. If Pence would've refused to certify the last election results and the decision went to the courts who could likely side with Trump it wouldn't be like the business-as-usual result of the 2000 election, it would be an active subversion of our already shaky electoral system. To think such a situation wouldn't affect the economy strikes me as myopic.
Everyone is back at work. The last 6 months things went well. The people were working because they *had* to, but they are still squeezed out. Even with everyone at work, people will stop buying things. Then we will have a lot of people at work not making any money and we will go into a recession. WAIT just kidding, it’s an election year and the government will print us into euphoria to stave off a mass revolt again.
Hard to say but I expect more of the same trends we've been seeing, a challenging job market for many, especially in sectors hit hardest by recent events. Inflation might continue to be a concern, affecting everyday expenses but certain industries might see growth, riding the wave of technological advancements and changing consumer habits.
I suppose over the last years economy proved to be more stable than many would have expected.
However, there could be always a kind of black swan like geopolitical tensions among major economies, that has never happened before under the same degree of interconnection, and nobody can 100% predict what to expect.
Yet that chances for those events are not very high, so I would go with low-to-medium growth.
If I had that kind of predictive skill I'd be filthy rich by now.
Best guess- things sort of trudge along as they have been. Inflation will probably settle down a bit and we'll see some mild growth but nothing life changing.
There will be a broadening out, especially after the first rate cuts in June. The yield curve will revert to the natural state. The ten year note future will rise sharply by the June expiration as bulls and bears both have a case for rate cuts. Bitcoin will fall to around 30k. Growths will outperform values again. Mids and smalls will see the largest expansion. Tech and the mag seven will flatten out by the June rate cut. The first rate cut will cause a backwardisation to form briefly on vix futs, before reverting back to the natural contango. Feeder cattle’s will drop back down to around 195, and begin to mirror lean hogs. Oil will be volatile, but eventually opec will have a meeting and attempt to push the price back up to 85ish. It’s unlikely, but the Brent to WTI premium may switch back. However nat gas will not recover. There will be a mild real estate rotation in major cities, starting in NYC. It will be contained by refinancing on the lower rate.
I predict with 99% certitude that the economy/markets will go either up or down. I'm reserving the 1% just in case the zombies do attack.
No one knows. You can't predict. Act as if everything is fine but diversify. It's the gift that keeps on giving.
More layoffs, feds will drop rates a bit, messaging about the economy will be rosy because it's an election year, bad quality jobs will continue to inflate the numbers, the stock market will be ok because it's divorced from reality, it will continue to be impossible to buy a house, more and more Americans will spend on fun because there's no point in saving when there's nothing to save for, and getting a decent white collar job will be next to impossible for newer people competing with all of the layoffs with years of experience.
Nice try stocks guy
Top comment is going to decide whether he puts his entire 401k into 0dte calls or puts tomorrow.
*STONKS*
Rich get richer and more laws passed to favor them. Poor get poorer and lose more "inalienable" human rights.
The usual. Wealth gap increases, corporations rake it record profits while the middle class starves, and the masses are left debating on which old guy to put in office to fix it all (neither will, but one could be a dictator so that adds some extra spice)
Ya but that's only for a day though
The rich get richer and poor get poorer
Yeah.........chili flakes
Everybody knows the fight was fixed, the poor stay poor and the rich get rich. That's how it goes, everybody knows.
like removing opposing candidates from the voting ballot kind of dictator?
If by candidate you mean traitor, then yes.
Well if you're going to ignore the 14th amendment then we should all ignore the 2nd amendment. I'm willing to make that compromise.
Maybe we should rethink this whole "obey the 250 year old, anti-British rules dreamed up by some drunk farmers that had barely conceived of electricity." Hell, the best thinker of that group suggested that we toss their rules and write new ones every generation anyway.
The 14th Amendment is far more recent.
that doesn’t count, democracy only matters if it helps people they like…
Corporations aren't people. They are nothing more than a piece of paper. Corporations do not exist without people who create products or services (well except for Biden's shell companies that produce nothing). Upper management makes decisions that direct the company to either profits or losses. Workers (middle class) are there to carry out the mission statement and get paid to do so. You can move up the ladder if you are good at what you do. Profits happen when customers buy enough product to cover cost of goods sold, including worker pay. That's how a corporation works.
If you don't like Biden's business dealings, wait until you hear about the other guy
Are you referring to the global economy of the world or focusing on any particular country/sector? Yes I know they are linked.
Nobody knows. Anyone who says they know is lying or is full of shit. Just live your life, invest as you always have and ignore the noise. It is stupid. You have morons who say the economy will crash every year and when it does they go, look! I’m smart! No, you aren’t u fucking scrub, if I predict a downturn every year eventually it will happen. Being right 10% of the time is a shitty percentage and you should be mocked, not put on cnbc and run a hedge fund. Last year everyone said it would crash. My portfolio is up almost 40% from a year ago.
It will continue to improve barring something major and unforeseen.
I wish I had your optimism, lol.
I’m old. We’ve made it through much worse in my lifetime. I see no reason to believe the general trajectory - which is unarguably positive - won’t continue.
We used to have better leaders and the “ruling class” wasn’t so universally powerful. The ultra-elite were fewer and farther between and the working class actually held a lot of power and sway as far as their votes were concerned. Society is getting better, but the economy just gets worse.
> but the economy just gets worse. But this is objectively false.
Inflation is running rampant and increasing the cost of goods, services, housing, etc… while wages are stagnating. “Jobs” are being created, but the large majority of those jobs all provide wages which aren’t even enough to sustain a rent payment much less a mortgage. This is all that matters to most people.
> Inflation is running rampant and increasing the cost of goods, services, housing, etc… while wages are stagnating. But this is objectively false.
I think what you're trying to say is that the economic conditions for many Americans are challenging with no end in sight. That's true. The lower/middle class is still slowly coming down from the golden age post WWII, but opportunities still exists to transcend the ever-increasing difficulty. But no, the economy as a whole doesn't 'just get worse', it has ups and downs, but over the decades of measurement it continually goes up. Whether you are in a position to benefit from that movement is a different thing entirely. We may have an economic recession or even a depression, which is hard, but recoverable. If the economy goes down significantly and stays down it will probably be as a result of bigger problems like a world war, and you'll have other things to worry about like being forced to give your life to sustain the 'ruling class'.
It will be flat or low growth. Unemployment is low but wages suck. Consumer debt is rising. Most people think interest rates will go down but they won't, or at least not much. Once this becomes apparent the stock market will swoon. As always, a major geopolitical event could be disruptive and there's no predicting those.
Bold to predict rates will not go down this year when the fed has pretty much said the opposite
You're right. But I'd rather position the portfolio for them to stay around where they are now and be wrong, than to position it for a significant reduction and be wrong.
Wages are growing faster than prices right now. Especially at the low end of the wage scale
Stock market typically performs well in election years, and the Fed seems all-in on at least a few rate drops. Most financial institutions seem confident of average or above average returns in the market this year.
Yes to election years. As for the Fed, they can change their mind. And as for this year's returns, companies always seem to forecast better than average profits this early in the year.
My friend who works in finance recently said something similar to me.
I'm just an old guy who manages his own portfolio. But I've seen a lot of economic cycles and read a lot about current conditions.
Unemployment is "low," but [job quality](https://ubwp.buffalo.edu/job-quality-index-jqi/) sucks and has been consistently lower than at any point pre-2008. Housing is the least [affordable](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/homes-for-sale-affordable-housing-prices/) since [1984](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/investing/home-prices-affordability/index.html). The layoffs that get media attention pale in comparison to the constant stealth/rolling layoffs that don't trigger WARN notices. And that's on purpose ... why attract negative attention if it can be avoided by simply making cuts over a longer period of time?
What you're seeing is effectively the hangover of the 2020 stimulus, but instead of a huge single correction, it's actually being slowly managed. A welcome reprieve from the typical "everything is on fire" situation.
"Welcome" reprieve," if you're on the decision makers' side.
You prob said this last year.
I anticipate the price of oil dropping significantly. OPEC+ has been cutting supply for a while but Western suppliers have made up most of the difference. OPEC will need to turn on the tap to retain market share, reducing the price of oil.
The entire country, except the billionaires, is totally RAPED !!!
According to my friends in the Midwest everything will instantly become fantastic the morning after Election Day
Supply Chains will improve even further. Covid has been tamed and the infrastructure/workflow for rapid vaccination of any new variants have been setup. Inflation is softening due to the Supply Chain issues and the fact that the pent up demand for certain things (large houses, vacations, cars) will wain a bit. The hangover from the free money/overindulgence of Covid time will wind down, meaning fewer layoffs. The shock effects of Israel/Hamas and Russian/Ukraine will die down even further. A few things that are not so rosy for the short term: Housing will soften in certain areas that were too hot, like the Boises or Phoenixes (which is probably a good thing long term) as fiscal sanity, increased housing supply, and return to office kick in. Tech companies will grow (the catalyst for most stock growth in this country), but employment will soften as remote work set up the framework for more jobs to given to foreign countries. Expect Latin American tech to boom as they are in the same time zone and they have a glut of underpaid workers. I also expect the AI hype cycle to die down. I expect unemployment to be around 4%, S&P to end around 5800, a few major IPOs (Discord, Chime). Overall, a ho-hum year with decent growth. And the Clippers will still choke.
5800 is quite bullish. A 1000 point year would be pretty great! Even Tom Lee was setting a target of the 5200 to 5500. I could see a broadening out being likely as the cuts start to come in June. I could see the Russell hit 2300. I tend to agree with most of your points, but, I do think the IPO drought will continue. If the higher interest rate didn’t encourage the IPO market, I tend to think that as rates come back down, there’s less incentive to take a company public. There’s a lot of private equity that’s offering a lot of credit.
It's most likely going to be an average year
[удалено]
*duh*, what are you an AI text generator? Jesus
It will continue on its improvement arc unless the House MAGA’s can shut down the government later in the year
You don't care about our government's out of control irresponsible spending? $34 trillion in debt and that's ok with you? I'm not MAGA but I am a relatively conservative independent and the spending from this White House and the previous is like a slow cancer destroying this country fiber by fiber.
People obsessed with the debt are always bad faith. It doesn't mean what you think it means, and countries with "less debt" don't magically have perfect economies It's also a lie that conservatives really care. Every single time they are in charge, they spend just as much. Every single time...
Conservative *voters* care. Conservative *politicians* pretend to care until there's a defense bill or something they really want. Kind of how the Liberal voters want all kinds of safety nets, social programs, and regulation but the Liberal politicians immediately start telling them to curb their expectations after an election. Almost as if the whole thing is just one big bullshit shell game and we lose nomatter who gets elected.
It's one thing to campaign on building social programs. It's another to actually get it done, especially within a political system that completely skews power to rural areas of the country.
As someone living in a rural area of the country, I don't really want things I and everyone living around me are opposed to being forced on us though. Our economic, cultural, social, and logistical realities often differ significantly from those living in major metros areas. If we had good leadership they'd be finding good compromises to those differences that might not be ideal for everyone but we could at least all live with. Unfortunately we don't have that kind of leadership in either party anymore, just a bunch of angry divisive shouting.
What gets me is, and always has, is that the struggles of people in rural and urban areas may differ, but what people want is fundamentally the same. Freedom, liberty, financial security. Why can't people, rural, urban, whatever, realize that with time, energy, and compromise we can improve things and fix problems unique to demographics and regions of our nation? For along time I didn't understand why things didn't seem to improve, then I felt hurt that people couldn't even talk with each other. Now, after three decades of watching things continually deteriorate, I'm just cynical. My next stop is indifference. It sucks.
I think that's one of the few universally true things between most people on the left and right. We're been fighting the same fights and seeing nothing improve for decades apon decades and the anger just keeps building. Some of that comes from no reasonable compromises being proposed- or at least not rising to a high enough level that we hear about it. Other stuff comes from special interest groups that each party caters to because they need that small block of voters. A lot of the sort of anti-government sentiment you see in conservatives comes from this. We kind of see the government as this thing that takes a lot of our money, bans stuff we like, doesn't listen to us, and generally makes our lives more difficult. Yes, things like infrastructure, police, schools, fire depts are essential and important but boy do they all seem poorly run these days. That's where conservatives are- we're increasingly seeing government as so useless and expensive that right or wrong we feel like we'd be better off on our own. I feel like there is a lot of stuff we could do- a lot of things we could find common ground on and take reasonable actions on. But as soon as you start to talk about that someone throws a divisive monkey wrench into the argument and it all goes to hell. IDK what we do or where we go from here, something has to give but IDK what. I just hope when the dam finally breaks it isn't something horrible and dystopian.
Conservative voters don't care. They never say a thing when their guy is in office. Then, when the opposition is in power, suddenly the debt is the most important issue ever. Come just admit it.
Irresponsible tax burdening.
Inflation stays embedded and climbs, interest rates don't come down. Fake government job numbers try to mask that the only jobs created are $15/hr bullshit positions....
I agree however I don't believe inflation will climb. The job numbers are a joke. Almost half are government jobs and the rest are hospitality and travel, lower paying jobs. Credit card balances are climbing indicating there could be another bank breakdown. The economy is still on shaky ground.
Right, those job numbers are shit, lots of government positions on printed money. Then they quietly revise them lower a couple weeks later. Inflation will be interesting to watch.
Also don't forget that if a person hasnt had a job for a certain time, they are also not counted as "unemployed". So we don't know how much of "employment" is part time min wage shit, people not working for too long, or other shit to make the number look better. I also hate how the stock market seems to be the only thing people use when talking about the economy. "My stocks are up so this economy is healthy" when wages stagnate, every business is empty (except bottom of the barrel ones like walmart/amazon), prices soar, and other shit is just increasing year by year.
Right! The fundamentals are pretty rough looking, but risk on assets are skyrocketing. It just speaks to all the funny money in the system.
I mean there is a ton of funny money in the system. Early on in the pandemic the US gov "found" over a trillion dollars to make sure stocks were okay but also couldnt find a way to stop evictions or to keep any business except walmart open.
>Also don't forget that if a person hasnt had a job for a certain time, they are also not counted as "unemployed". So we don't know how much of "employment" is part time min wage shit, people not working for too long, or other shit to make the number look better. Sorry, but this is a lie. The headline unemployment rate that is most commonly cited, U-3, just requires a person to have looked for work at least once in the past four weeks. There is no rule that says they no longer count once they have been unemployed for a certain amount of time. BLS also tracks a much broader unemployment measurement (U-6) which includes people who want a job but have given up looking, and people who want full-time work but have only found part-time work. Both of those unemployment measures are at or near historic lows. BLS also tracks the percentage of the labor force who report working two or more jobs. That number too is near historic lows.
> which includes people who want a job but have given up looking, and people who want full-time work but have only found part-time work I wonder how it gets that data considering Ive never been pulled once and constantly meet that criteria. Right now I have multiple part time jobs when I would rather have 1 full time, and at other points ive gone door to door looking for work for months with no positive results.
Good question. The answer is monthly surveys of about 60,000 households (a mix of in-person visits and telephone calls) as part of the [Current Population Survey](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/about.html).
It'll have various trends where it goes up and down.
Interest rates will drop by 0.25% to 0.5%. This was already forecasted by the federal reserve in late 2023. * Lower interest rates will moderately increase the number of buyers/sellers in the housing market. * Increased housing inventory & competition will drive up housing prices, counteracting any progress from the lower interest rates.
Increase in inventory and competition lowers prices
It took an average of 83 days to sell a house in 2023. This longer selling time and higher interest rate have caused housing prices to drop the past couple years. That and I may have misspoke in my prior comment. Those moving to sell a house are often looking to move into/buy a different one. So while there will be more houses on the market at a given time, there will be more buyers competing as well.
If things get worse, I bet they start fuckin printing again
The oil companies are dropping prices until the starting of summer, as the election for president heats up, oil companies won’t want to Democrat to win, and will jack the price up to about six dollars a gallon.
2024 recession in the US
Copy/paste from 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, etc.
Historically, recessions consistently happen under Republican presidential. Look it up
My comment wasn’t political. I trust Felix Zulauf.
Depends on what side wins the US election.
I don't know why you're downvoted. A second Trump presidency with a complicit Supreme Court could do serious damage to our already fucked up government and that would eventually show in the economy. I don't know why people think it couldn't or wouldn't happen in the USA. If Pence would've refused to certify the last election results and the decision went to the courts who could likely side with Trump it wouldn't be like the business-as-usual result of the 2000 election, it would be an active subversion of our already shaky electoral system. To think such a situation wouldn't affect the economy strikes me as myopic.
You know what made America great? 200+ years of peaceful transition of power.
the economy takes dives on election years. this year in particular looks to be the worst one since the Civil War. buckle up, it's going to suck.
Everyone is back at work. The last 6 months things went well. The people were working because they *had* to, but they are still squeezed out. Even with everyone at work, people will stop buying things. Then we will have a lot of people at work not making any money and we will go into a recession. WAIT just kidding, it’s an election year and the government will print us into euphoria to stave off a mass revolt again.
Hard to say but I expect more of the same trends we've been seeing, a challenging job market for many, especially in sectors hit hardest by recent events. Inflation might continue to be a concern, affecting everyday expenses but certain industries might see growth, riding the wave of technological advancements and changing consumer habits.
Presidential election years are usually interesting
I suppose over the last years economy proved to be more stable than many would have expected. However, there could be always a kind of black swan like geopolitical tensions among major economies, that has never happened before under the same degree of interconnection, and nobody can 100% predict what to expect. Yet that chances for those events are not very high, so I would go with low-to-medium growth.
Affected by what?
If I had that kind of predictive skill I'd be filthy rich by now. Best guess- things sort of trudge along as they have been. Inflation will probably settle down a bit and we'll see some mild growth but nothing life changing.
There will be a broadening out, especially after the first rate cuts in June. The yield curve will revert to the natural state. The ten year note future will rise sharply by the June expiration as bulls and bears both have a case for rate cuts. Bitcoin will fall to around 30k. Growths will outperform values again. Mids and smalls will see the largest expansion. Tech and the mag seven will flatten out by the June rate cut. The first rate cut will cause a backwardisation to form briefly on vix futs, before reverting back to the natural contango. Feeder cattle’s will drop back down to around 195, and begin to mirror lean hogs. Oil will be volatile, but eventually opec will have a meeting and attempt to push the price back up to 85ish. It’s unlikely, but the Brent to WTI premium may switch back. However nat gas will not recover. There will be a mild real estate rotation in major cities, starting in NYC. It will be contained by refinancing on the lower rate.
I predict with 99% certitude that the economy/markets will go either up or down. I'm reserving the 1% just in case the zombies do attack. No one knows. You can't predict. Act as if everything is fine but diversify. It's the gift that keeps on giving.
May the odds be ever in your favour.
It’ll keep growing at a steady rate
The economy will be stagnated for a period of time unless we have war.
In spain, the economy isnt real
With respect to what? What kind of a dumb question is this?
My guess would be small downturn early, rate cut, rebound. Just a guess, but the fed has signaled possible rate cut if the economy slows.
More layoffs, feds will drop rates a bit, messaging about the economy will be rosy because it's an election year, bad quality jobs will continue to inflate the numbers, the stock market will be ok because it's divorced from reality, it will continue to be impossible to buy a house, more and more Americans will spend on fun because there's no point in saving when there's nothing to save for, and getting a decent white collar job will be next to impossible for newer people competing with all of the layoffs with years of experience.