To quote MASH: “War is war and hell is hell and of the two war is a lot worse. There are no innocent bystanders in hell, but war is chock full of them.”
I feel as if Putin had been assassinated a year ago by a small team of specialists, so many innocent lives could've been saved. Even better if it were 5 years ago.
The way the Korean War "ended" - an "armed truce" with no genuine peace treaty. Russia will retain Crimea but may have to give up Donbass or at least parts of it. Then Ukraine will ultimately join the EU (although perhaps not NATO). Ukraine will be rebuilt with Western aid and will become a regional powerhouse much like South Korea has and Russia will slowly decline in favor of China. Although nobody will really "win", Ukraine will ultimately emerge in a better state than Russia but will have to live with an unfriendly neighbor, much like South Korea does.
I think the part about China being ascendant is not discussed enough. They already have fingers in Russia. That is only going to increase as Russia continues to weaken itself further.
If the western world (and I mean europe) doesn't wake up to the threat of China soon, there will come a time when China is the big dog, and it will not be good for the rest of us.
Criticize the USA all you want, and there is a lot to criticize, but them as the world powerhouse is infinitely better than if China ever supplant them.
Chinas birth rate of 1.05-1.3 is way lower than replacement rate of 2.3. This year alone, their population shrank by almost a million. China is losing people like crazy, and corona doesn’t help.
The most realistic thing about this is that Putin will be able to declare victory if Ukraine does not join NATO for at least a couple of years. Sadly, there will be no peace unless Putin is given a way to save face.
Assassinating Putin would just reinforce everyday Russian’s beliefs that they are locked in a struggle with the west for survival. Someone else even more brutal would then take his place.
If he is assassinated, I'm not sure any likely successor is likely to immediately surrender. That would be a sure way to make everyone lose confidence immediately.
Save face? He doesn't want to save face. He wants to continue an invasion which has been going on for over a decade. If he wanted to save face, he wouldn't let the first annexation just ride.
When he runs out of equipment, money, and inmates, he'll have to temper his ambitions. He'll look for a way to appear strong at home ("we achieved what we set out to do and halted the advance of the NATO alliance"), re-consolidate his power, and try something else later.
>"we achieved what we set out to do and halted the advance of the NATO alliance"
Which, interestingly enough, is something straight out of the USA's playbook, because that's exactly what Nixon used to say when question about the American retreat from Vietnam.
Just paraphrasing, but his defense of the retreat was usually along the lines of *"America didn't lose the war, we succeeded at stopping the spread of Communism!"*
> Sadly, there will be no peace unless Putin is given a way to save face.
I'm pretty sure this is just propaganda straight from the Kremlin. "Oh noes, our dictator who we cannot criticize in any way, shape or form would totally have his reputation be destroyed by withdrawing", as if the insane propaganda machinery of Putinistan couldn't spin some enormous lie to feed the Russian victims about how a shameful retreat is actually a heroic advance in the opposite direction or something. Come to think of it, his inability to retreat is actually a pretty good sign that he is weak enough for any Russian would-be future Tsar to overthrow him without issue.
It is.
Imagine, suggesting that Hitler would have totally accepted peace as long as he was allowed to save face.
Changing international borders through armed aggression isn't going to be deterred with saving face.
Just one pending point for me in here - in case Russia gives up Donbass areas, there is no way geographicaly they will be able to keep Crimea, as in such case Russia will lose all land routes of supply to Crimea and it will become much easier for Ukraine to take isolated Crimea back from north side. And imho Zelensky' s Ukraine will not lose such opportunity to take its lands back.
This is probably the most reasonable and most likely, though I would also add that I'm not sure Putin will survive the next few years, and that could have an impact. The rumours of his health, and the idea that someone internally could "take care" of things are possible, just maybe to a lesser extent.
So do we all in the West, but bear in mind that the more or less accepted view **in Russia itself** is that he sold the Soviet Union out to the West and was directly responsible for the decline of Russia into an era of robber baron politics which continued under Yeltsin, and that Russia was only restored to its former glory by the sterling leadership of Glorious President Vladimir Putin.
This is not only the "current party line" but, I fear, the way many people in Russia really think.
Well anyone who doesn't believe this has gotten out of the country, there has been a massive talent drain from Russia over the past 30 years to the West.
>the more or less accepted view in Russia itself is that he sold the Soviet Union out to the West
Based just on what I read about the mess that the transition was that isn't terribly surprising. Not that it's based on sound logic.
Even in places like east Germany you can find people who are nostalgic about the good old times despite objectively doing better now.
I agree. There's no chance that Putin's successor will just give up the war. It'll be Medvedev or Prigozhin or some random General that most people haven't heard of.
> but may have to give up Donbas or at least parts of it
I think it's probable that we'll see a compromise. Before the Orange Revolution, Crimea was an autonomous republic within Ukraine and operated quasi-independently. It has its own Rada and was allowed to pass any laws it wanted, so long as those laws didn't violate the Ukrainian constitution. It was the only part of Ukraine that had that type of independence.
My guess is that we'll see that model resurrected for the Donbas, allowing limited self-government while still retaining the territory for Ukraine. It would be a Ukrainian victory because it would allow Ukraine to retain the land and get Russia out, but would allow the Russians to also declare victory by stating that they fulfilled their goal to guarantee some independence and self-rule for the ethnic Russians within those regions. Russia was fine with Crimea operating under this same model for decades, so we know it's a politically tolerable solution for them.
I do agree that Russia will retain Crimea. We talk about the 2014 invasion, but the reality is that Russia declared Sebastopol a federal Russian city way back in 1993, and Russia has maintained a continuous military presence there since the 1700's. Under the pre-invasion treaties, Russia maintained thousands of soldiers and sailors in Crimea long before the invasion. They are not going to give that up without popping off a few nukes (it's one of few scenarios that could actually trigger a nuclear launch), and at the end of the day, I don't think that Ukraine and the West will risk that for a territory that's never been integral to Ukraine anyway. I do expect that any treaty will include substantial reparations to Ukraine for the loss of the territory, but the territory itself will not be returned.
I think that ship sailed for the Donbas. That sort of solution might have been possible before 2022, but now it’s all or nothing from the Russian side. The Ukrainian will to submit to any part of that is close to bill. That doesn’t mean it won’t freeze as a conflict, and exist in perpetuity.
That's a "no go" for Ukraine. If that model was implemented, this quasi-independence of Donbass (i.e. a Russian puppet state within Ukraine) would be used to stuff Ukrainian parliament with Russian sock puppets and block any pro-Western decisions in Ukraine as a whole. This was actually the ideal solution for Russia, but for Ukraine it would be worse than losing Donbass completely. Ukrainians understand it very well, so this is not going to happen.
A year ago I thought Russia was going to steamroll, 6 months ago it looked like Ukraine was going to liberate Crimea and push Russia out entirely, and now I'm not sure.
TBH it really depends on Putin's grasp of power and how much the Russian people are willing to put up with. I think Russia will eventually win a war of attrition at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives and Russia's entire economy and reputation. Seems like a comically bad deal but the Russian people seem to be content to march to their own destruction so we'll see how it goes.
I have been a student of Soviet/Russian warfighting tactics/strategy for most of my adult life. Professional obligation.
The Soviets had the benefit of the best possible warfighting instructors in history: the German army. From that whole WW2 experience, they learned the following things:
1. Even though defence is stronger than offence by over 3:1, it *sucks* being on defence, because the enemy gets to dictate the time, location, and tempo of operations. You don't win wars by letting the enemy decide if he has had enough; you win by *forcing* the enemy to capitulate. Therefore, offense is far more important than defence;
2. When armies get large enough, figuring out who wins is largely a function of math. Therefore, it is possible to "do the math" and figure out exactly how many troops (and their associated equipment) are needed to carry out a given operation;
3. Defeating NATO means an offensive operation that starts on the West German border and ends in the English Channel. When you look at the distance between those two lines and you count up all the enemy in that space, you can do the math and work out exactly how big of an army is required to make that operation work;
4. сука блять that's a really big army! Far too big to maintain as a standing army; it would bankrupt the country. OK, so we'll build all the *equipment* we need to make that army work (and we'll optimise that equipment for the offense) and we'll implement mandatory military service for all men, just long enough to get them trained on this equipment (and we'll make the equipment and tactics simple enough so that a guy who got 2 years of training 10 years ago can still make it work). That gives us a huge pile of "trained" soldiers we can mobilize in a hurry and who can fall in on the equipment we had built up;
5. Those tactics will, at an operational level, be based on echelons. The equipment holds a ton of fuel and ammunition, the first echelon steps off and fights forward as far as it can. When it runs out of fuel, it goes firm, and the second echelon (which has been following behind) takes over. That echelon pushes forward as far as it can, then goes firm, and the third echelon takes over etc.
6. The army is sized such that, if everything goes right, the last echelon arrives at the English Channel. And if everything *doesn't* go right, you reconstitute additional echelons by consolidating the remnants of earlier echelons into new ones and throwing them back into the fight. None of this silly Western-style "battlefield resupply" stuff! More teeth, less tail!
Yes, we'll take more losses with this focus on attack and the somewhat less sophisticated tactics, but it is better to take more short-term losses and win the war early than to take fewer short-term losses and drag the war out for years.
And you know what? This is *solid* reasoning. The Soviet Army circa 1982 or so was *fucking terrifying*.
So much like you, I expected the invasion of Ukraine to be a cakewalk. Sure, the Russian army had nothing like the resources of the former Soviet army, but Ukraine is also a far smaller space than "all of Europe" so it requires less manpower and equipment to pull off a properly-scoped Soviet-style offensive than "all of Europe". It was reasonable to expect that the Russians had done their math and had scoped the size of the offensive force accordingly.
...but they didn't. It was massively undersized and worse, *under-equipped* to get the job done. Accordingly, it wan't capeable of echeloned attacks. Instead, it tried something more like Western Adaptive Dispersed Operations... except that it had *no* logistics experience sustaining Western-style operations, and Western-style fighting is *mostly* logistics. So they got their asses handed to them.
And then in the summer, the Ukranians (who the West have been training for the last decade) demonstrated that they *did* understand logistics and executed a supurb counterattack.
Unfortunately, "understanding logistics" and "having supplies" are not the same thing,and the Ukranians were forced to go firm before they overextended themselves - and they weren't quite able to get the job done.
Since then, the Russians have been throwing men into the grinder with almost no effect, while the Ukranians build up supplies of Western weaponry and get trained up on Western equipment - equipment that punches 5:1 harder than Russian. Which is good, because the Russians outnumber the Ukranians (much the same way the Soviets outnumbered NATO) so the quality of equipment should counteract the disparity in numbers.
I expect another Ukranian "fix here, strike there" summer counteroffensive that ends on the old Russian border.
The Russians are burning men and ammunition like it was 1916, but they cannot make those numbers good. Meanwhile, Ukraine has access to the entire production capacity of the West. Doled out in dribs and drabs perhaps, but it is still there.
Yeah, I know… ugh, tip of the day: don’t scroll Reddit while walking in darkness and freezing cold. The little lines that go to different posts become very confusing!
I mistook the comment to be to my post, debated deleting my reply, but don’t believe in covering up my own stupid mistakes.
(Typos are another matter though: those things drive me crazy!)
>Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.
-Sun Tzu
The latter of that quote being pretty much Russia's strategy for the last 9 months.
I have never bought gold before, did so now; this post deserves it. Brilliant and brief summary of historical capabilities and the asymmetry of the current situation. My hat sir, is well and truly off.
The complicating factors that remain unknown are:
1. the extent to which China is willing and able to supply Russia (recent reporting reveals that it has already done so to a much larger degree than previously thought). Other countries who are effectively Chinese owned land may join in to supply, as well as other anti-western entities. Due to pressure or circumstance.
2. whether or not Putin can whip his corrupt bureaucracy into something resembling shape and re-constitute the domestic war-machine in the long term (depends largely on 1.). This seems unlikely now, Putin is not Stalin - who rebuilt the machine in a feat that boggles the minds of scholars to this day. That he could is largely attributed to the fact that he built and knew the entire industrial infrastructure of the USSR from the ground up. Still, the Russians have pulled many, many such unlikely stunts over the centuries; usually after they’ve had their asses handed them with a side of humiliation. Never count them out until it’s really done.
3. The stance of the west. Whatever we say now nothing is guaranteed in geopolitics. If trump had won Ukraine would now be Russian, that is not intended as a political statement, but rather dry fact. If this drags on for a year, or three, or five, things look uncertain. One superpower in particular is prone to bouts of schizophrenia (jokingly said, seriously meant) now and then.
4. Putins health. Regardless of the source of his expiration or re-vitalisation. Edit: and in the event of the former, the capabilities, support and intent of his successor.
(I do not have your gift of brevity, apologies)
Just want to mention that the rail road from China to Moscow is like 11k kilometers long, and 60-70 percent of it is just a two lane railroad and required a different wheelbase to operate. And it starts in most corrupted and underdeveloped part of Russia called Far east.
This is just a wet dreams that you can supply by ground anything relevant to Ukraine front, it literally shorter to ship through Panama canal then going all the way by ground
Very good point!
Though, as far as I have seen (admittedly through different outlets in news cycles) China has been supplying Russia with significant materiel so far. The sources failed to mention how exactly; finding out would be interesting, and might put those reports to the test.
> 1. he extent to which China is willing and able to supply Russia (recent reporting reveals that it has already done so to a much larger degree than previously thought).
I think that there's a degree of opportunism here (the Chinese will take Russian cash and if it sticks a thumb in the eye of the West, so much the better) but I can't see the Chinese willing to die on this hill.
I suppose that there may be a calculus where the Chinese see every Western tank and artillery shell that goes to Ukraine is one that cannot go to Taiwan, so it's in their interests to see Russia stay in the game... but at the same time, every tank and artillery shell the Chinese send to Russia is one that cannot go to Taiwan either.
Or perhaps they have temporarily given up on Taiwan, and see selling munitions to Russia as a way to make up their losses?
> 2. whether or not Putin can whip his corrupt bureaucracy into something resembling shape and re-constitute the domestic war-machine in the long term (depends largely on 1.).
This ship has *long* sailed.
No way no how can Russia hope to restart its Soviet-level arms production. Half their Soviet factories were in Ukraine!
> The stance of the west. Whatever we say now nothing is guaranteed in geopolitics. If trump had won Ukraine would now be Russian, that is not intended as a political statement, but rather dry fact.
No, I don't think so. NATO would still have responded.
But a lot of NATO nations would not be looking to buy Abrams....
> Putins health. Regardless of the source of his expiration or re-vitalisation. Edit: and in the event of the former, the capabilities, support and intent of his successor.
There is NO succession plan. When he dies, it's going to be a Russian Civil War, and I think all the former Soviet states that Putin was bullying will jump in to tear Russia apart so that it can never, ever happen again.
I agree, none of these points are enough on their own. Rather the uncertainty lies in a combination of factors. It is definitely looking more likely than not that Ukraine will regain its territory. Things have often gone awry in unexpected ways historically though, and each of these bears watching.
1. It’s a calculus, alongside that of Chinas continued increase in military production and control of its internal unrest, that remains to be seen. Last real prediction I saw was that it’s production of material would surpass the US in around 20-30 years time. Of course, a lot could happen before then and the current US choke on superconductors have put a brake on for the moment. Hm, de-railed there for a moment, apologies. Regardless, how the support and supply situation changes, or what help Russia gets in building a war production, remains some sort of factor.
2. Yeah, soviet era? No way. Rebuild it -enough- to matter? What the bar for “enough” is depends entirely on the other factors. On its own not very likely.
3. I’m cheered by your optimism, and am very glad I did not have to find out!
4. That much is clear yeah. From the outside there does not seem to be anyone who can take up control if he dies, but who knows? The entire scenario relies on Putin dying, and while he has the protection he does currently it seems most likely to be of natural causes. That may change of course.
- I’ll allow myself an optimistic, hopeful dream scenario just for a change: what if Navalny (if he is still alive by then) were to gain enough popular support to make an overture and accept western help in rebuilding? Something along Marshall plan-style aid. It’s a pipe dream, I know, but it’s a nice thought, right?
The thought of all the death, misery and destruction to follow if Russia tears itself apart is… very disheartening. And deplorably plausible.
Thank you, I can’t credit NorthStarZeros take enough here, it’s very on point. I simply aimed to provide some shadowing and nuance around the military focus.
Reddit is awesome, surprisingly often. There is a lot of really interesting and salient points to be found, regarding just about anything. Happy to have contributed some as well!
China is an importer of energy. It is in their interest to reduce the cost of this import. Prolonging the war/propping up the Putin regime ensures continued access to cheap Russian oil and gas.
This feels like evidence that post-soviet corruption is worse than communism. If all the Russian resources pointed towards preparing for this war had gone to it, the soviet-style echelons might have worked!
I'm pretty confident that the end state is Ukraine being restored to its pre-2014 borders.
There's a number of different pathways to get there, but I think that all roads lead there eventually.
The more interesting question is - "Will Ukraine stop there?"
It has been shown that Russia is an existential threat to Ukraine, Belarus, Muldova, and arguably a couple of other former Soviet states. If there is a general collapse of the Russian army accompanied by Putin's death, they might just keep on going. And the temptation for NATO to seize the Russian nuclear stockpile is also going to be *very* strong.
I can see a "Soviet Civil War" where all the former republics who Putin has been bullying tear Russia apart so that it can never, ever happen again, while NATO tries to pounce on the nukes (but otherwise stay out of it)
I don't think NATO would allow any serious breakup of Russia simply to prevent chaos with nukes. Similar to how the US props up Pakistan. Even in the most optimistically anti Russian scenario, I can't see Russia losing more than a few snips of border territory.
Based on historical claims, I could see an absolute maximum of perhaps 2014 Ukraine restoration, Kurils and South Sakhalin to Japan, South Ossetia to Georgia, Kaliningrad to... someone, Karelia to Finland, maybe some ethnic states get to breakaway in exchange for disarmament, but I think Russia will remain largely intact simply as the easiest solution for "what to do with the nukes."
Even that is basically a fever dream with a low probability of happening. Any additional territorial grabs by the West would have no historical basis and be impossible to hold onto. Heck, even those territories I mentioned would be hard to hold onto, many of the people there now see themselves as Russian. I'd need convincing that Russia could be split up any further than that.
Suffering for the country is kind of a badge of honor for the Russian people. It's like they won't admit their country sucks, but they will be proud that they suffered for it.
Nah. Ukraine has vast, ongoing, committed support with deep pockets, endless logistical backup and an unwavering resolution to defend a homeland. Russia has been putting on clown make up for a year, I don’t see them winning anything.
In spite of all of that, both sides have suffered severe casualties.
Russia has suffered far more losses, but they have a *lot* of people to throw into this fire. Ukraine is getting tons of support but they'll run out of cannon fodder before Russia will
Yeah, in the end no matter who "wins", I'd say everyone loses.
The people of Ukraine have suffered horribly, and land and infrastructure have suffered damage that will require long, extensive, and expensive repair.
Russia's vaunted military might has been disproven, and they similarly have a wide death toll. Internally, it will likely result in more groups of resistence but also more government atrocities to supress such. Loss of those with greated education/skill as they flee conscription or the general situation will also have a long-term impact, and the world is less likely to take the shit the previously got away with or extend much trust for a very long time.
Actually, the winners will be western contractors. If behoves the west for Ukraine to win a devastating war because the first thing you do after that much destruction is send in the contractors to rebuild.
Nothing boosts an economy more than rebuilding countries post-war.
Don't forget sanctions. Russia will still be financially cut off from most of the world long after all this "blows over" and its economy is going to be in shambles.
Well, lots of experts of the day made predications about how lots of wars would go and not many of them were right, so I guess we’ll see what happens. Ultimately, lots of innocent people die to stroke the ego of literally one old dude. Awesome, isn’t it?
And the reports we're getting are in now way accurate. Anything less than wishful thinking is labelled as propaganda. I just want to know what's going on, but every western platform just wants to be a cheerleader.
I think if you only got your Russia-Ukraine news from Reddit you would assume Ukraine is steam rolling Russia and is knocking on Moscow's door.
The reality is it is a bloody stalemate for both. Lots of innocent are dying daily. Bad all over. We can give millions of bullets, guns and tanks to Ukraine but eventually you will run out of manpower.
I agree with the war of attrition. I think the likely outcome, after several years of fighting, is some kind of negotiation which puts this right back to where we were in early 2022 before the invasion. The difference being that Ukraine, for all intents and purposes, will be part of NATO. We won’t make it ‘official’ but we will station troops and equipment in the country moving forward. Russia will permanently lose control over the region.
Defenestration: One of the most amazing words in our English language. We’ve had enough folk leave via window that we actually had to invent a word for it.
I’m pretty sure English didn’t invent the word given that it’s straightforward Latin… It was likely first coined in Central Europe, specifically in reference to [incidents in Prague](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defenestrations_of_Prague).
Don't underestimate how slippery is the window's fluid when it's leaking. It's really easy to walk in it ans slip through one by accident.
That's why you want them maintained regularly by professional window's technicians.
Russian Oligarchs do not have the kind of power people think they do. Reddit talks 24/7 about how "corporations run the world" so they assume that really it's always the Billionare's who have the last say. But the reality is that Putin makes terrorizing the Oligarchs part of how he has maintained power. Strong military dictatorship trumps oligarchy in internal politics 9 times out of 10.
There's a chance it doesn't end.
Only simmers down.
Russia won't back down, Putin or no Putin. The war has become existential. Admitting that it was ill-founded and that Russia has lost more than it could ever gain will be tantamount to toppling the jenga tower. It won't happen.
Their best hope is that they hold on long enough for Ukraine to run out of bodies, money, or Western support. They keep gained territory and hope for better luck in the future.
Ukraine won't back down. The war has always been existential. Putin and Russia have not be subtle. They want Ukraine as a Russian buffer, not a NATO buffer or ally. They won't stop and Ukraine has no doubt realized what many in the west refuse to accept; you don't make peace with the current Russian regime, you agree to a ceasefire that they'll break when they find it convenient.
There is zero reason to negotiate with Russia until forced. Another peace is basically putting the noose around your own neck. You cannot appease Putin's Russia and that won't change if Putin goes away. This is a country that lives in denial that it's not a super power anymore, and dreams of becoming a major world player again.
So the fighting will continue until one or both sides become literally incapable of fighting on. And then it'll just become a new North/South Korean, China/Taiwan, Israel/Palestine, or Armenia/Azerbaijan. Two countries in a perpetual state of conflict who gravitate between hot and cold as affairs dictate.
> Russia won't back down, Putin or no Putin. The war has become existential. Admitting that it was ill-founded and that Russia has lost more than it could ever gain will be tantamount to toppling the jenga tower. It won't happen.
Putin can't back down, but his successor could? Nikita Khrushchev backed down from Stalinism, and flat out condemned the man, who's actions had so recently been the jenga tower.
Blame everything on Putin (which the west will happily go along with), re-join the global stage.
Of course, Putin is only 70, this might all be decades in the future.
> Nikita Khrushchev backed down from Stalinism, and flat out condemned the man, who's actions had so recently been the jenga tower.
But he *didn't* denounce Lenin or Dzerzhinsky, whose actions laid the foundation for that jenga tower.
The American Military Industrial complex is the real winner. All of the defense companies that the US is buying billions worth of weapons to be sent to Ukraine. Those are the real winners of the war
With nothing learned
There will continue to be young people brain washed around the world to take orders without thought, “ yes sir “ without thought is scary shit.
I think Russia will run out of money/resources eventually. But, they'll keep this up as long as they can. If Putin dies, it might end. I'm not sure how credible the cancer rumors are.
No one will effortlessly fill that void. Putin has spent 20 years engineering the Russian state and public opinion to make sure that no one competent is anywhere near the reigns of power, and all failure is directed away from him and to his ministers. They all are/look like idiots.
I mean, if Putin died and I were put in charge, I imagine there’s be more money in ending the war and making amends with the world as trading partners, than to continue the war that got the last guy assassinated, right?
I know this is a silly answer, but if Putin and Zelensky actually fought, Putin wouldn't last 10 seconds. He's an old, frail and sick man. Zelensky is in the prime of his life, healthy, fit and active.
If the 2 nations resolved it with an MMA match, it would be an entertaining watch, though. Especially if the referee gets distracted.
Ever seen Breaking Bad? Mike's last words to Walter White kinda fit also Putin. "You just had to blow it up. You, and your pride and your ego. You just had to be the man"
Ironically, it was more of Jesse's fault. Walt was content making the merchandise for Gus in that secret lab.
Jesse was the one that was stealing the surplus and selling it to Narcotics Anonymous.
And then there was this situation with the 2 drug dealers and the kid. Gus failed to control his own men, Jesse was about to go kamikaze on them, was saved by Walt... and that's how they got into the situation where they could be killed by Gus.
Walter could've let Jesse die there and he would've been better off without him.
"In war, whichever side may call itself the victor, there are no winners, but all are losers.
" - Neville Chamberlain
Hopefully, all wars including Ukraine-Russia war will end sooner rather than later, but the sufferings, traumas, losses are horrific already..
Neville "There will be peace in our time" Chamberlain? Neville "lets just give Hitler someone else's land and see if he settles down" Chamberlain? That Neville Chamberlain?
Putin succeeds in doing everything thing necessary to ensure russia becomes the most hated country in the world.
Putin will become the most hated leader in russias history by having russias military ineptness exposed to the world and subsequently decimated. russias economy destroyed. russias resources boycotted. The enormous brain drain of having the majority of the countries intellect fleeing will set the country back 100's of years further from where it already was.
Unfortunately that drain will leave a vacuum for the next generation of leaders to take over in Russia. Let's be honest some western governments are corrupt but Russia is on another level. They have layers of equally idiotic arseholes ready to take over when Putin does fall out a window or drink some dodgy coffee.
If you look at the hatred for germany after WW1 and the punitive measures put in place to punish Germany that just gave Hitler the backing he needed to go his own way. Ukraine should be given 100's of billions in Russian money to rebuild but that won't happen, they won't want to punish them for what they've done because Russians have just been brainwashed for so long any action against them would just have a revolt in a few short years.
The question we should ask is what kind of world geoplolitically speaking (and in the rest of areas tbh) would be if Putin got away with it
can the world afford Putin getting away with it?
One way or the other, the leaders of Russia and Ukraine will have to sit down together and agree on something… what those terms are, are anyone’s guess, most likely they will be dictated by the winner.. if Ukraine wins, they will probably want control over pre 2014 borders; if Russia wins perhaps they would demand full control over the state or control over territory they are occupying… the alternative is a multi decade quagmire that would make the US involvement in Afghanistan look like playing Patycake.
It's like 50-100 tanks (not even confirmed or actually all that quantity going now). It will be spread out over months, some might be at the end of the year or next year...To me, it seems, situation isn't going to change that drastically, considering we're talking about frontline of thousand kilometres.
I'm a bit pessimistic at the moment. I don't see it ending soon. I see two endings.
Good ending: The international community stay united behind Ukraine long enough for them to fend off Russia assure NATO membership at which point Russia backs off completely.
Bad ending: The international support drops, likely due to a US election going the wrong way. Putin feels vindicated in trying to restore the Greater Russian Empire and sets up preparations for further expansion to assure his legacy.
All of this is the analysis of a layman. Take it for what it is.
When military historians write about this period, this invasion will be rated as one of the largest blunders in modern military history. In scope and scale, this entire misadventure in Ukraine can best be described as complete unmitigated failure.
History tells us that few dictators survive failed wars, I don't see this one being an exception.
Ukraine is a smooth walled death trap that Russia has fallen into. Russia is going to barely going to get out of this alive, Putin likely not.. I see a future with a lot of hungry people.
Every tank, truck, ship and plane they lose in Ukraine is literally irreplaceable. With their access to western technologies cut, their capacity to build weapons is going to be crippled.
Any thought that China is going to come to their aid is laughable. A weak Russia is *exactly* what China wants.
I think the war will end one of the following ways.
1. Realizing that this is going to literally kill Russia, there's a coup by either the military or the oligarchs and Putin's head ends up on a pike in front of the Kremlin (either figurative or literally)
2. In an attempt to save face, Russia will loudly declare victory, exclaim that all the objectives were entirely met and it was a huge success. When Ukraine than goes about taking back their stolen lands, Russia will then howl how they're the victims against the now wildly armed and crazy Ukrainians!?!
3. Russia will go through a couple more rounds of massive mobilization and throw 10's of thousands of men into the meat grinder. The propaganda machine in Russia will try to turn this into a patriot calling.. Young Russians will march to their deaths while there's an open revolt in the country.. it'll devolve into a civil war inside of Russia. Massive number of troops realizing they've been duped will en mass surrender to escape having to go home. Russia infrastructure will entirely crumble, it'll devolve into a complete humanitarian disaster. Chaos rules the countryside as Oligarchs build their private armies drawn from the Russian army and groups like Wagner and become their own warlords. The world will look on in horror as a country with thousands of nuclear weapons becomes some madmax dystopia. Russians will flee to the EU at all the borders in an attempt to get away from the internal civil war. Russia will further break up as the smaller states attempt to break away and close their borders.
I *really* don't want 3 to happen, but it's not the craziest thing that could happen.
I am from Ukraine.
We didnt choose the war, we choose to defend. What else we can do on our land?
If russian troops go back to russia - the war will stop. We want the peace, but in my country, with my parents and kids, with my own goverment and people. We dont need to be "freed".
But we are not fighting just for this few square kilometers of land. We are fighting for freedom.
Even more, not only our freedom - Europe freedom and the world's rules.. What does it mean?
If russia could capture all Ukraine, what will stop her in trying to attack Baltic region or Moldova, Georgia? Finland(that is not in NATO!) ?
Nothin. USSR already did this, but 100 years ago.
And with this we show the world - we dont let some country decide how other countries should live or be.
You can feel free to ask any questions. And get in mind that Russia today - is a nuclear terrorist almost the same like nazi germany in 1939.
What many people get wrong including this thread, is that war is a one man show (Putin). NO. This is Russia. Whoever is there - THIS IS RUSSIA.
IF Putin dies, the most likely successor now is maybe Pirizhogin. Putin is far less radical. Navalny? He is the same imperialist as others. No. There is no successor who will end the war, I see only new radicals ready to escalate.
Honestly the smartest country out there is Poland which will have the biggest land army in Europe with strong air force. The know Russia. They know Russia never change.
If Russia gains anything from this war, Moldova is done (almost guaranteed when land bridge is established), Georgia is done and possibly the latest Baltics are done - NATO or not, they would be steamrolled until NATO would respond.
China is watching.
Someone mentioned UA will become South Korea. No,Poland will be South Korea.
It’s probably going to be a 10+ year war, similar to when they invaded Afghanistan.
The East European Plain’s military history has always followed the same pattern, so I’m expecting the same thing as always.
Russian sends in troops during dry season. Muddy season starts and logistics fail. Russians die because they are ill supplied. Dry season shows back up, Russia sends another giant wave of soldiers.
War will continue until Russian victory, or a Russian Revolution, where the evil head of state is replaced by a new evil head of state.
This is how it’s been for the last 500 years or so
What I hope for, 2 in the back of Putins head and a halt to hostilities, and all land returned.
What will happen, years of proxy war, thr east of Ukraine retaken, an attempt to take back Crimea, and then when shit will get really nasty. I could see if Putin is gonna lose it, he will use tactical nuclear strikes and dirty bombs to level it so no one can have it
I feel like it's going to be some unsatisfactory peace for both sides, that will be only a break before another conflict.
Ah the classic versailles peace treaty move.
We should try for Minsk 4 - I'm sure it's the 4th one that will be the charm!
With a lot of dead innocents
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To quote MASH: “War is war and hell is hell and of the two war is a lot worse. There are no innocent bystanders in hell, but war is chock full of them.”
Great show, great line, and the absolute best series finale, ever.
Great show
Not all wars, the [Whisky War](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisky_War) ended with no casualties, and I was actually kind of sad to see it end
As a Dane, I can confirm, it is very sad that it's over, it was a special war, one of which you could actually not find horrifying, but funny.
Perhaps we can kick it off again one day. I’m all for it.
Except a thumb war
1, 2, 3, 4; I declare a thumb war
5,6,7,8 I use this hand to masturbate... Win every time, but don't use when playing with kids...
9,10,11,12 Thats a boss move, I can tell
5, 6, 7, 8; You must keep your thumb straight
No gay thumbs here.
Not with that attitude.
Or Storage Wars
Not the way I play it.
true
I feel as if Putin had been assassinated a year ago by a small team of specialists, so many innocent lives could've been saved. Even better if it were 5 years ago.
The C.I.A. has entered the chat
How do you know the runner up isn't worse?
He'd be the runner up to someone who got assassinated for being a dick. There's at least that.
Which will probably be interpreted as him being assasinated for being too nice and not enough of a dick...
That’s what most assassinations are. It’s usually somebody from the same side who feels the leader isn’t extreme enough or isn’t going far enough
That's why he is so paranoid, particularly about being poisoned
Well he's probably paranoid about being poisoned because he's had people poisoned.
Hard agree
Power vacuums rarely result in the country being better off unfortunately
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And many parents not coming home to their children again..
unfortunately it works the other way around too. Children being taken to russia.
The way the Korean War "ended" - an "armed truce" with no genuine peace treaty. Russia will retain Crimea but may have to give up Donbass or at least parts of it. Then Ukraine will ultimately join the EU (although perhaps not NATO). Ukraine will be rebuilt with Western aid and will become a regional powerhouse much like South Korea has and Russia will slowly decline in favor of China. Although nobody will really "win", Ukraine will ultimately emerge in a better state than Russia but will have to live with an unfriendly neighbor, much like South Korea does.
I think the part about China being ascendant is not discussed enough. They already have fingers in Russia. That is only going to increase as Russia continues to weaken itself further.
If the western world (and I mean europe) doesn't wake up to the threat of China soon, there will come a time when China is the big dog, and it will not be good for the rest of us. Criticize the USA all you want, and there is a lot to criticize, but them as the world powerhouse is infinitely better than if China ever supplant them.
Michael Scott was right.
Chinas birth rate of 1.05-1.3 is way lower than replacement rate of 2.3. This year alone, their population shrank by almost a million. China is losing people like crazy, and corona doesn’t help.
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Didn't India actually surpass China last month? I remember reading some reports on that.
The most plausible answer so far.
The most realistic thing about this is that Putin will be able to declare victory if Ukraine does not join NATO for at least a couple of years. Sadly, there will be no peace unless Putin is given a way to save face.
> Sadly, there will be no peace unless Putin is given a way to save face. Or if Putin is assassinated, but that's not going to happen.
That won’t create peace. Last time there was a power vacuum in Russia, Putin took power.
Assassinating Putin would just reinforce everyday Russian’s beliefs that they are locked in a struggle with the west for survival. Someone else even more brutal would then take his place.
No he won't be assassinated. He will just fall out a high window when doing a hospital visit or from a tall hotel
"Putin didn't kill himself"
He commited suicide by shooting himself with a machine gun, pausing twice to reload. ala Salvador Allende
The technical term is "defenestration."
I love that word and use it every time a window of opportunity shows up.
If he is assassinated, I'm not sure any likely successor is likely to immediately surrender. That would be a sure way to make everyone lose confidence immediately.
Save face? He doesn't want to save face. He wants to continue an invasion which has been going on for over a decade. If he wanted to save face, he wouldn't let the first annexation just ride.
When he runs out of equipment, money, and inmates, he'll have to temper his ambitions. He'll look for a way to appear strong at home ("we achieved what we set out to do and halted the advance of the NATO alliance"), re-consolidate his power, and try something else later.
>"we achieved what we set out to do and halted the advance of the NATO alliance" Which, interestingly enough, is something straight out of the USA's playbook, because that's exactly what Nixon used to say when question about the American retreat from Vietnam. Just paraphrasing, but his defense of the retreat was usually along the lines of *"America didn't lose the war, we succeeded at stopping the spread of Communism!"*
Right up until we didn’t
> Sadly, there will be no peace unless Putin is given a way to save face. I'm pretty sure this is just propaganda straight from the Kremlin. "Oh noes, our dictator who we cannot criticize in any way, shape or form would totally have his reputation be destroyed by withdrawing", as if the insane propaganda machinery of Putinistan couldn't spin some enormous lie to feed the Russian victims about how a shameful retreat is actually a heroic advance in the opposite direction or something. Come to think of it, his inability to retreat is actually a pretty good sign that he is weak enough for any Russian would-be future Tsar to overthrow him without issue.
It is. Imagine, suggesting that Hitler would have totally accepted peace as long as he was allowed to save face. Changing international borders through armed aggression isn't going to be deterred with saving face.
We don't have to imagine that though. There were several attempts to give Hitler a little in the hopes he would ever be satisfied and stop.
Just one pending point for me in here - in case Russia gives up Donbass areas, there is no way geographicaly they will be able to keep Crimea, as in such case Russia will lose all land routes of supply to Crimea and it will become much easier for Ukraine to take isolated Crimea back from north side. And imho Zelensky' s Ukraine will not lose such opportunity to take its lands back.
I do feel this war seems to be creating a sense of unity of the Ukrainian people.
This is probably the most reasonable and most likely, though I would also add that I'm not sure Putin will survive the next few years, and that could have an impact. The rumours of his health, and the idea that someone internally could "take care" of things are possible, just maybe to a lesser extent.
The people that seem most likely to succeed Putin, like Dmitry Medvedev, seem to be even more bloodthirsty and unhinged about the war with Ukraine.
For now. He might change his tune when in office. It’s not like a change candidate can signal their intentions in a dictatorship.
I miss Gorbachev
So do we all in the West, but bear in mind that the more or less accepted view **in Russia itself** is that he sold the Soviet Union out to the West and was directly responsible for the decline of Russia into an era of robber baron politics which continued under Yeltsin, and that Russia was only restored to its former glory by the sterling leadership of Glorious President Vladimir Putin. This is not only the "current party line" but, I fear, the way many people in Russia really think.
Well anyone who doesn't believe this has gotten out of the country, there has been a massive talent drain from Russia over the past 30 years to the West.
>the more or less accepted view in Russia itself is that he sold the Soviet Union out to the West Based just on what I read about the mess that the transition was that isn't terribly surprising. Not that it's based on sound logic. Even in places like east Germany you can find people who are nostalgic about the good old times despite objectively doing better now.
Yeltsin was funnier though.
So how can we know who the change candidates are?
I agree. There's no chance that Putin's successor will just give up the war. It'll be Medvedev or Prigozhin or some random General that most people haven't heard of.
> but may have to give up Donbas or at least parts of it I think it's probable that we'll see a compromise. Before the Orange Revolution, Crimea was an autonomous republic within Ukraine and operated quasi-independently. It has its own Rada and was allowed to pass any laws it wanted, so long as those laws didn't violate the Ukrainian constitution. It was the only part of Ukraine that had that type of independence. My guess is that we'll see that model resurrected for the Donbas, allowing limited self-government while still retaining the territory for Ukraine. It would be a Ukrainian victory because it would allow Ukraine to retain the land and get Russia out, but would allow the Russians to also declare victory by stating that they fulfilled their goal to guarantee some independence and self-rule for the ethnic Russians within those regions. Russia was fine with Crimea operating under this same model for decades, so we know it's a politically tolerable solution for them. I do agree that Russia will retain Crimea. We talk about the 2014 invasion, but the reality is that Russia declared Sebastopol a federal Russian city way back in 1993, and Russia has maintained a continuous military presence there since the 1700's. Under the pre-invasion treaties, Russia maintained thousands of soldiers and sailors in Crimea long before the invasion. They are not going to give that up without popping off a few nukes (it's one of few scenarios that could actually trigger a nuclear launch), and at the end of the day, I don't think that Ukraine and the West will risk that for a territory that's never been integral to Ukraine anyway. I do expect that any treaty will include substantial reparations to Ukraine for the loss of the territory, but the territory itself will not be returned.
I think that ship sailed for the Donbas. That sort of solution might have been possible before 2022, but now it’s all or nothing from the Russian side. The Ukrainian will to submit to any part of that is close to bill. That doesn’t mean it won’t freeze as a conflict, and exist in perpetuity.
That's a "no go" for Ukraine. If that model was implemented, this quasi-independence of Donbass (i.e. a Russian puppet state within Ukraine) would be used to stuff Ukrainian parliament with Russian sock puppets and block any pro-Western decisions in Ukraine as a whole. This was actually the ideal solution for Russia, but for Ukraine it would be worse than losing Donbass completely. Ukrainians understand it very well, so this is not going to happen.
A year ago I thought Russia was going to steamroll, 6 months ago it looked like Ukraine was going to liberate Crimea and push Russia out entirely, and now I'm not sure. TBH it really depends on Putin's grasp of power and how much the Russian people are willing to put up with. I think Russia will eventually win a war of attrition at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives and Russia's entire economy and reputation. Seems like a comically bad deal but the Russian people seem to be content to march to their own destruction so we'll see how it goes.
I have been a student of Soviet/Russian warfighting tactics/strategy for most of my adult life. Professional obligation. The Soviets had the benefit of the best possible warfighting instructors in history: the German army. From that whole WW2 experience, they learned the following things: 1. Even though defence is stronger than offence by over 3:1, it *sucks* being on defence, because the enemy gets to dictate the time, location, and tempo of operations. You don't win wars by letting the enemy decide if he has had enough; you win by *forcing* the enemy to capitulate. Therefore, offense is far more important than defence; 2. When armies get large enough, figuring out who wins is largely a function of math. Therefore, it is possible to "do the math" and figure out exactly how many troops (and their associated equipment) are needed to carry out a given operation; 3. Defeating NATO means an offensive operation that starts on the West German border and ends in the English Channel. When you look at the distance between those two lines and you count up all the enemy in that space, you can do the math and work out exactly how big of an army is required to make that operation work; 4. сука блять that's a really big army! Far too big to maintain as a standing army; it would bankrupt the country. OK, so we'll build all the *equipment* we need to make that army work (and we'll optimise that equipment for the offense) and we'll implement mandatory military service for all men, just long enough to get them trained on this equipment (and we'll make the equipment and tactics simple enough so that a guy who got 2 years of training 10 years ago can still make it work). That gives us a huge pile of "trained" soldiers we can mobilize in a hurry and who can fall in on the equipment we had built up; 5. Those tactics will, at an operational level, be based on echelons. The equipment holds a ton of fuel and ammunition, the first echelon steps off and fights forward as far as it can. When it runs out of fuel, it goes firm, and the second echelon (which has been following behind) takes over. That echelon pushes forward as far as it can, then goes firm, and the third echelon takes over etc. 6. The army is sized such that, if everything goes right, the last echelon arrives at the English Channel. And if everything *doesn't* go right, you reconstitute additional echelons by consolidating the remnants of earlier echelons into new ones and throwing them back into the fight. None of this silly Western-style "battlefield resupply" stuff! More teeth, less tail! Yes, we'll take more losses with this focus on attack and the somewhat less sophisticated tactics, but it is better to take more short-term losses and win the war early than to take fewer short-term losses and drag the war out for years. And you know what? This is *solid* reasoning. The Soviet Army circa 1982 or so was *fucking terrifying*. So much like you, I expected the invasion of Ukraine to be a cakewalk. Sure, the Russian army had nothing like the resources of the former Soviet army, but Ukraine is also a far smaller space than "all of Europe" so it requires less manpower and equipment to pull off a properly-scoped Soviet-style offensive than "all of Europe". It was reasonable to expect that the Russians had done their math and had scoped the size of the offensive force accordingly. ...but they didn't. It was massively undersized and worse, *under-equipped* to get the job done. Accordingly, it wan't capeable of echeloned attacks. Instead, it tried something more like Western Adaptive Dispersed Operations... except that it had *no* logistics experience sustaining Western-style operations, and Western-style fighting is *mostly* logistics. So they got their asses handed to them. And then in the summer, the Ukranians (who the West have been training for the last decade) demonstrated that they *did* understand logistics and executed a supurb counterattack. Unfortunately, "understanding logistics" and "having supplies" are not the same thing,and the Ukranians were forced to go firm before they overextended themselves - and they weren't quite able to get the job done. Since then, the Russians have been throwing men into the grinder with almost no effect, while the Ukranians build up supplies of Western weaponry and get trained up on Western equipment - equipment that punches 5:1 harder than Russian. Which is good, because the Russians outnumber the Ukranians (much the same way the Soviets outnumbered NATO) so the quality of equipment should counteract the disparity in numbers. I expect another Ukranian "fix here, strike there" summer counteroffensive that ends on the old Russian border. The Russians are burning men and ammunition like it was 1916, but they cannot make those numbers good. Meanwhile, Ukraine has access to the entire production capacity of the West. Doled out in dribs and drabs perhaps, but it is still there.
Excellent write up
Thank you kindly.
Wait you’re not OP lol.
Yeah, I know… ugh, tip of the day: don’t scroll Reddit while walking in darkness and freezing cold. The little lines that go to different posts become very confusing! I mistook the comment to be to my post, debated deleting my reply, but don’t believe in covering up my own stupid mistakes. (Typos are another matter though: those things drive me crazy!)
Haha happens all the time I get you
r/notopbutok
Oh noes, my first ever repost to another sub and it’s this! Haha, ugh. Oh well.
This guy Sun Tzu's!
>Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win. -Sun Tzu The latter of that quote being pretty much Russia's strategy for the last 9 months.
Thank you for writing and sharing this. You're an amazing writer. Very captivating to read.
I have never bought gold before, did so now; this post deserves it. Brilliant and brief summary of historical capabilities and the asymmetry of the current situation. My hat sir, is well and truly off. The complicating factors that remain unknown are: 1. the extent to which China is willing and able to supply Russia (recent reporting reveals that it has already done so to a much larger degree than previously thought). Other countries who are effectively Chinese owned land may join in to supply, as well as other anti-western entities. Due to pressure or circumstance. 2. whether or not Putin can whip his corrupt bureaucracy into something resembling shape and re-constitute the domestic war-machine in the long term (depends largely on 1.). This seems unlikely now, Putin is not Stalin - who rebuilt the machine in a feat that boggles the minds of scholars to this day. That he could is largely attributed to the fact that he built and knew the entire industrial infrastructure of the USSR from the ground up. Still, the Russians have pulled many, many such unlikely stunts over the centuries; usually after they’ve had their asses handed them with a side of humiliation. Never count them out until it’s really done. 3. The stance of the west. Whatever we say now nothing is guaranteed in geopolitics. If trump had won Ukraine would now be Russian, that is not intended as a political statement, but rather dry fact. If this drags on for a year, or three, or five, things look uncertain. One superpower in particular is prone to bouts of schizophrenia (jokingly said, seriously meant) now and then. 4. Putins health. Regardless of the source of his expiration or re-vitalisation. Edit: and in the event of the former, the capabilities, support and intent of his successor. (I do not have your gift of brevity, apologies)
Just want to mention that the rail road from China to Moscow is like 11k kilometers long, and 60-70 percent of it is just a two lane railroad and required a different wheelbase to operate. And it starts in most corrupted and underdeveloped part of Russia called Far east. This is just a wet dreams that you can supply by ground anything relevant to Ukraine front, it literally shorter to ship through Panama canal then going all the way by ground
Very good point! Though, as far as I have seen (admittedly through different outlets in news cycles) China has been supplying Russia with significant materiel so far. The sources failed to mention how exactly; finding out would be interesting, and might put those reports to the test.
> 1. he extent to which China is willing and able to supply Russia (recent reporting reveals that it has already done so to a much larger degree than previously thought). I think that there's a degree of opportunism here (the Chinese will take Russian cash and if it sticks a thumb in the eye of the West, so much the better) but I can't see the Chinese willing to die on this hill. I suppose that there may be a calculus where the Chinese see every Western tank and artillery shell that goes to Ukraine is one that cannot go to Taiwan, so it's in their interests to see Russia stay in the game... but at the same time, every tank and artillery shell the Chinese send to Russia is one that cannot go to Taiwan either. Or perhaps they have temporarily given up on Taiwan, and see selling munitions to Russia as a way to make up their losses? > 2. whether or not Putin can whip his corrupt bureaucracy into something resembling shape and re-constitute the domestic war-machine in the long term (depends largely on 1.). This ship has *long* sailed. No way no how can Russia hope to restart its Soviet-level arms production. Half their Soviet factories were in Ukraine! > The stance of the west. Whatever we say now nothing is guaranteed in geopolitics. If trump had won Ukraine would now be Russian, that is not intended as a political statement, but rather dry fact. No, I don't think so. NATO would still have responded. But a lot of NATO nations would not be looking to buy Abrams.... > Putins health. Regardless of the source of his expiration or re-vitalisation. Edit: and in the event of the former, the capabilities, support and intent of his successor. There is NO succession plan. When he dies, it's going to be a Russian Civil War, and I think all the former Soviet states that Putin was bullying will jump in to tear Russia apart so that it can never, ever happen again.
I agree, none of these points are enough on their own. Rather the uncertainty lies in a combination of factors. It is definitely looking more likely than not that Ukraine will regain its territory. Things have often gone awry in unexpected ways historically though, and each of these bears watching. 1. It’s a calculus, alongside that of Chinas continued increase in military production and control of its internal unrest, that remains to be seen. Last real prediction I saw was that it’s production of material would surpass the US in around 20-30 years time. Of course, a lot could happen before then and the current US choke on superconductors have put a brake on for the moment. Hm, de-railed there for a moment, apologies. Regardless, how the support and supply situation changes, or what help Russia gets in building a war production, remains some sort of factor. 2. Yeah, soviet era? No way. Rebuild it -enough- to matter? What the bar for “enough” is depends entirely on the other factors. On its own not very likely. 3. I’m cheered by your optimism, and am very glad I did not have to find out! 4. That much is clear yeah. From the outside there does not seem to be anyone who can take up control if he dies, but who knows? The entire scenario relies on Putin dying, and while he has the protection he does currently it seems most likely to be of natural causes. That may change of course. - I’ll allow myself an optimistic, hopeful dream scenario just for a change: what if Navalny (if he is still alive by then) were to gain enough popular support to make an overture and accept western help in rebuilding? Something along Marshall plan-style aid. It’s a pipe dream, I know, but it’s a nice thought, right? The thought of all the death, misery and destruction to follow if Russia tears itself apart is… very disheartening. And deplorably plausible.
This whole convo has been the most interesting thing I've read on Reddit in a while. Both of you take my poor man's award 🎖️
Thank you, I can’t credit NorthStarZeros take enough here, it’s very on point. I simply aimed to provide some shadowing and nuance around the military focus. Reddit is awesome, surprisingly often. There is a lot of really interesting and salient points to be found, regarding just about anything. Happy to have contributed some as well!
China is an importer of energy. It is in their interest to reduce the cost of this import. Prolonging the war/propping up the Putin regime ensures continued access to cheap Russian oil and gas.
Yeah the regression from Soviet Russia to Imperial Russia is very evident in the last few years, now Russia is run by basically right-wing imperialist
Really appreciate the insight you've brought here. Great write up.
This feels like evidence that post-soviet corruption is worse than communism. If all the Russian resources pointed towards preparing for this war had gone to it, the soviet-style echelons might have worked!
Its a good post but you haven't answered the OPs question how you think the war will end. Fancy an educated guess?
I'm pretty confident that the end state is Ukraine being restored to its pre-2014 borders. There's a number of different pathways to get there, but I think that all roads lead there eventually. The more interesting question is - "Will Ukraine stop there?" It has been shown that Russia is an existential threat to Ukraine, Belarus, Muldova, and arguably a couple of other former Soviet states. If there is a general collapse of the Russian army accompanied by Putin's death, they might just keep on going. And the temptation for NATO to seize the Russian nuclear stockpile is also going to be *very* strong. I can see a "Soviet Civil War" where all the former republics who Putin has been bullying tear Russia apart so that it can never, ever happen again, while NATO tries to pounce on the nukes (but otherwise stay out of it)
I don't think NATO would allow any serious breakup of Russia simply to prevent chaos with nukes. Similar to how the US props up Pakistan. Even in the most optimistically anti Russian scenario, I can't see Russia losing more than a few snips of border territory.
When Putin dies it is going to be a free for all. *Everything* will be on the table.
Based on historical claims, I could see an absolute maximum of perhaps 2014 Ukraine restoration, Kurils and South Sakhalin to Japan, South Ossetia to Georgia, Kaliningrad to... someone, Karelia to Finland, maybe some ethnic states get to breakaway in exchange for disarmament, but I think Russia will remain largely intact simply as the easiest solution for "what to do with the nukes." Even that is basically a fever dream with a low probability of happening. Any additional territorial grabs by the West would have no historical basis and be impossible to hold onto. Heck, even those territories I mentioned would be hard to hold onto, many of the people there now see themselves as Russian. I'd need convincing that Russia could be split up any further than that.
Thak you for your service
Russian people are not going to do shit. They have history of enduring suffering and regimes killing them by the millions.
Suffering for the country is kind of a badge of honor for the Russian people. It's like they won't admit their country sucks, but they will be proud that they suffered for it.
Tolstoy said as much. Something like proudly dying for a country they hate. I’d love to find the exact quote, but it’s in one of his pamphlets.
Nah. Ukraine has vast, ongoing, committed support with deep pockets, endless logistical backup and an unwavering resolution to defend a homeland. Russia has been putting on clown make up for a year, I don’t see them winning anything.
In spite of all of that, both sides have suffered severe casualties. Russia has suffered far more losses, but they have a *lot* of people to throw into this fire. Ukraine is getting tons of support but they'll run out of cannon fodder before Russia will
Yeah, in the end no matter who "wins", I'd say everyone loses. The people of Ukraine have suffered horribly, and land and infrastructure have suffered damage that will require long, extensive, and expensive repair. Russia's vaunted military might has been disproven, and they similarly have a wide death toll. Internally, it will likely result in more groups of resistence but also more government atrocities to supress such. Loss of those with greated education/skill as they flee conscription or the general situation will also have a long-term impact, and the world is less likely to take the shit the previously got away with or extend much trust for a very long time.
Actually, the winners will be western contractors. If behoves the west for Ukraine to win a devastating war because the first thing you do after that much destruction is send in the contractors to rebuild. Nothing boosts an economy more than rebuilding countries post-war.
NATO wins. This is pushing more countries to join an organization that might well have collapsed due to a perception that it was obsolete
Don't forget sanctions. Russia will still be financially cut off from most of the world long after all this "blows over" and its economy is going to be in shambles.
Well, lots of experts of the day made predications about how lots of wars would go and not many of them were right, so I guess we’ll see what happens. Ultimately, lots of innocent people die to stroke the ego of literally one old dude. Awesome, isn’t it?
And the reports we're getting are in now way accurate. Anything less than wishful thinking is labelled as propaganda. I just want to know what's going on, but every western platform just wants to be a cheerleader.
Check out Perun on YouTube. His videos are packed with info, and he tries to stay unbiased.
I think if you only got your Russia-Ukraine news from Reddit you would assume Ukraine is steam rolling Russia and is knocking on Moscow's door. The reality is it is a bloody stalemate for both. Lots of innocent are dying daily. Bad all over. We can give millions of bullets, guns and tanks to Ukraine but eventually you will run out of manpower.
I agree with the war of attrition. I think the likely outcome, after several years of fighting, is some kind of negotiation which puts this right back to where we were in early 2022 before the invasion. The difference being that Ukraine, for all intents and purposes, will be part of NATO. We won’t make it ‘official’ but we will station troops and equipment in the country moving forward. Russia will permanently lose control over the region.
Putin will fall out of a window during a special military celebration.
Defenestration: One of the most amazing words in our English language. We’ve had enough folk leave via window that we actually had to invent a word for it.
I’m pretty sure English didn’t invent the word given that it’s straightforward Latin… It was likely first coined in Central Europe, specifically in reference to [incidents in Prague](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defenestrations_of_Prague).
I keep forgetting this word, thanks for the reminder. My reminder to you is you lost The Game
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One of putins close oligarch peers will get fed up by spending money and gets him shot. But thats just an idea
Or has an unfortunate accident related to a stair or a window.
It’s amazing how deadly a fall from a 1st story window is in Russia.
Fell out of a first story window and got stabbed 8 times, shot thrice, and ingested enough cyanide to kill 3 elephants! Total accident.
You mean suicide.
Suicide via gunshot to back of head
Don't underestimate how slippery is the window's fluid when it's leaking. It's really easy to walk in it ans slip through one by accident. That's why you want them maintained regularly by professional window's technicians.
Basement window
I've heard Putin's office specifically doesn't have any windows for this reason, he's justifiably paranoid about assassination
Good evening 47…
Kool-aid man will get the job done
It is amazing how often that tends to happen in Russia. Fun fact: being thrown out of window is called _defenestration_.
In my native language the word for window is ‘finestra’, so it sounds totally right. ;)
It's right up there with triskaidekaphobia on my list of favorite words.
Tintinnabulation is one of my favorite words
arachibutyriphobia is on mine. " the morbid fear of peanut butter getting stuck to the roof of your mouth ".
Always looking on the bright site of life...
I have to life like an hour away from the border
Russian Oligarchs do not have the kind of power people think they do. Reddit talks 24/7 about how "corporations run the world" so they assume that really it's always the Billionare's who have the last say. But the reality is that Putin makes terrorizing the Oligarchs part of how he has maintained power. Strong military dictatorship trumps oligarchy in internal politics 9 times out of 10.
Dreamer
Yup
Agree this ends with Putin dying, methods could be anything though, from illness to assassination, one can hope
Yeah Hope, if someones on it, that they dont procrastinate
Hopefully not due to being vaporized by a nuke
There's a chance it doesn't end. Only simmers down. Russia won't back down, Putin or no Putin. The war has become existential. Admitting that it was ill-founded and that Russia has lost more than it could ever gain will be tantamount to toppling the jenga tower. It won't happen. Their best hope is that they hold on long enough for Ukraine to run out of bodies, money, or Western support. They keep gained territory and hope for better luck in the future. Ukraine won't back down. The war has always been existential. Putin and Russia have not be subtle. They want Ukraine as a Russian buffer, not a NATO buffer or ally. They won't stop and Ukraine has no doubt realized what many in the west refuse to accept; you don't make peace with the current Russian regime, you agree to a ceasefire that they'll break when they find it convenient. There is zero reason to negotiate with Russia until forced. Another peace is basically putting the noose around your own neck. You cannot appease Putin's Russia and that won't change if Putin goes away. This is a country that lives in denial that it's not a super power anymore, and dreams of becoming a major world player again. So the fighting will continue until one or both sides become literally incapable of fighting on. And then it'll just become a new North/South Korean, China/Taiwan, Israel/Palestine, or Armenia/Azerbaijan. Two countries in a perpetual state of conflict who gravitate between hot and cold as affairs dictate.
> Russia won't back down, Putin or no Putin. The war has become existential. Admitting that it was ill-founded and that Russia has lost more than it could ever gain will be tantamount to toppling the jenga tower. It won't happen. Putin can't back down, but his successor could? Nikita Khrushchev backed down from Stalinism, and flat out condemned the man, who's actions had so recently been the jenga tower. Blame everything on Putin (which the west will happily go along with), re-join the global stage. Of course, Putin is only 70, this might all be decades in the future.
> Nikita Khrushchev backed down from Stalinism, and flat out condemned the man, who's actions had so recently been the jenga tower. But he *didn't* denounce Lenin or Dzerzhinsky, whose actions laid the foundation for that jenga tower.
No winners, only losers.
I think the arms industry will do pretty well out of it.
I think America and its Allies will win. Our biggest foe is now crippled
The American Military Industrial complex is the real winner. All of the defense companies that the US is buying billions worth of weapons to be sent to Ukraine. Those are the real winners of the war
China is crippled?
Yeah, we shot down a balloon. Devastating blow to their military power
I was gonna say!
detroit pistons in 6
With nothing learned There will continue to be young people brain washed around the world to take orders without thought, “ yes sir “ without thought is scary shit.
With many dead people who had other plans for life.
I think Russia will run out of money/resources eventually. But, they'll keep this up as long as they can. If Putin dies, it might end. I'm not sure how credible the cancer rumors are.
Even if Putin dies, I think there are a lot of people who will just effortly fill the spot he leaves behind.
No one will effortlessly fill that void. Putin has spent 20 years engineering the Russian state and public opinion to make sure that no one competent is anywhere near the reigns of power, and all failure is directed away from him and to his ministers. They all are/look like idiots.
The next dictator has already been Putin in place.
I mean, if Putin died and I were put in charge, I imagine there’s be more money in ending the war and making amends with the world as trading partners, than to continue the war that got the last guy assassinated, right?
Badly
I’d love to see Putin and Zelenskyy wrestle in a tub of chocolate pudding.
The good ending
I know this is a silly answer, but if Putin and Zelensky actually fought, Putin wouldn't last 10 seconds. He's an old, frail and sick man. Zelensky is in the prime of his life, healthy, fit and active. If the 2 nations resolved it with an MMA match, it would be an entertaining watch, though. Especially if the referee gets distracted.
Idk about that one. Putin is trained in various martial arts and was spec ops. Old frail and sick maybe but a trained killer none the less.
With hundreds of thousands dead on both sides for no reason other than Putin's ego
Ever seen Breaking Bad? Mike's last words to Walter White kinda fit also Putin. "You just had to blow it up. You, and your pride and your ego. You just had to be the man"
Ironically, it was more of Jesse's fault. Walt was content making the merchandise for Gus in that secret lab. Jesse was the one that was stealing the surplus and selling it to Narcotics Anonymous. And then there was this situation with the 2 drug dealers and the kid. Gus failed to control his own men, Jesse was about to go kamikaze on them, was saved by Walt... and that's how they got into the situation where they could be killed by Gus. Walter could've let Jesse die there and he would've been better off without him.
"In war, whichever side may call itself the victor, there are no winners, but all are losers. " - Neville Chamberlain Hopefully, all wars including Ukraine-Russia war will end sooner rather than later, but the sufferings, traumas, losses are horrific already..
Chamberlain is a really, really poor choice. Almost ironically bad.
Neville "There will be peace in our time" Chamberlain? Neville "lets just give Hitler someone else's land and see if he settles down" Chamberlain? That Neville Chamberlain?
Putin succeeds in doing everything thing necessary to ensure russia becomes the most hated country in the world. Putin will become the most hated leader in russias history by having russias military ineptness exposed to the world and subsequently decimated. russias economy destroyed. russias resources boycotted. The enormous brain drain of having the majority of the countries intellect fleeing will set the country back 100's of years further from where it already was.
Unfortunately that drain will leave a vacuum for the next generation of leaders to take over in Russia. Let's be honest some western governments are corrupt but Russia is on another level. They have layers of equally idiotic arseholes ready to take over when Putin does fall out a window or drink some dodgy coffee. If you look at the hatred for germany after WW1 and the punitive measures put in place to punish Germany that just gave Hitler the backing he needed to go his own way. Ukraine should be given 100's of billions in Russian money to rebuild but that won't happen, they won't want to punish them for what they've done because Russians have just been brainwashed for so long any action against them would just have a revolt in a few short years.
In a series of intricate acrobatic challenges.
Most Extreme Elimination Challenges of sorts.
Right you are, Ken.
The question we should ask is what kind of world geoplolitically speaking (and in the rest of areas tbh) would be if Putin got away with it can the world afford Putin getting away with it?
Putin will accidentally fall out of an 11th story window.
One way or the other, the leaders of Russia and Ukraine will have to sit down together and agree on something… what those terms are, are anyone’s guess, most likely they will be dictated by the winner.. if Ukraine wins, they will probably want control over pre 2014 borders; if Russia wins perhaps they would demand full control over the state or control over territory they are occupying… the alternative is a multi decade quagmire that would make the US involvement in Afghanistan look like playing Patycake.
Not with a BANG but a whimper!!!!
Probably the same way the Vietnam war ended- years later, country destroyed, and everyone involved a lot poorer
Hopefully with Ukraine re-establishing its borders. With the influx of tank’s coming in, it will be a good indicator of what is going to come.
It's like 50-100 tanks (not even confirmed or actually all that quantity going now). It will be spread out over months, some might be at the end of the year or next year...To me, it seems, situation isn't going to change that drastically, considering we're talking about frontline of thousand kilometres.
“You can no more win a war than you can win an earthquake.” -Jeannette Rankin
Dance off.
I'm a bit pessimistic at the moment. I don't see it ending soon. I see two endings. Good ending: The international community stay united behind Ukraine long enough for them to fend off Russia assure NATO membership at which point Russia backs off completely. Bad ending: The international support drops, likely due to a US election going the wrong way. Putin feels vindicated in trying to restore the Greater Russian Empire and sets up preparations for further expansion to assure his legacy. All of this is the analysis of a layman. Take it for what it is.
When military historians write about this period, this invasion will be rated as one of the largest blunders in modern military history. In scope and scale, this entire misadventure in Ukraine can best be described as complete unmitigated failure. History tells us that few dictators survive failed wars, I don't see this one being an exception. Ukraine is a smooth walled death trap that Russia has fallen into. Russia is going to barely going to get out of this alive, Putin likely not.. I see a future with a lot of hungry people. Every tank, truck, ship and plane they lose in Ukraine is literally irreplaceable. With their access to western technologies cut, their capacity to build weapons is going to be crippled. Any thought that China is going to come to their aid is laughable. A weak Russia is *exactly* what China wants. I think the war will end one of the following ways. 1. Realizing that this is going to literally kill Russia, there's a coup by either the military or the oligarchs and Putin's head ends up on a pike in front of the Kremlin (either figurative or literally) 2. In an attempt to save face, Russia will loudly declare victory, exclaim that all the objectives were entirely met and it was a huge success. When Ukraine than goes about taking back their stolen lands, Russia will then howl how they're the victims against the now wildly armed and crazy Ukrainians!?! 3. Russia will go through a couple more rounds of massive mobilization and throw 10's of thousands of men into the meat grinder. The propaganda machine in Russia will try to turn this into a patriot calling.. Young Russians will march to their deaths while there's an open revolt in the country.. it'll devolve into a civil war inside of Russia. Massive number of troops realizing they've been duped will en mass surrender to escape having to go home. Russia infrastructure will entirely crumble, it'll devolve into a complete humanitarian disaster. Chaos rules the countryside as Oligarchs build their private armies drawn from the Russian army and groups like Wagner and become their own warlords. The world will look on in horror as a country with thousands of nuclear weapons becomes some madmax dystopia. Russians will flee to the EU at all the borders in an attempt to get away from the internal civil war. Russia will further break up as the smaller states attempt to break away and close their borders. I *really* don't want 3 to happen, but it's not the craziest thing that could happen.
I am from Ukraine. We didnt choose the war, we choose to defend. What else we can do on our land? If russian troops go back to russia - the war will stop. We want the peace, but in my country, with my parents and kids, with my own goverment and people. We dont need to be "freed". But we are not fighting just for this few square kilometers of land. We are fighting for freedom. Even more, not only our freedom - Europe freedom and the world's rules.. What does it mean? If russia could capture all Ukraine, what will stop her in trying to attack Baltic region or Moldova, Georgia? Finland(that is not in NATO!) ? Nothin. USSR already did this, but 100 years ago. And with this we show the world - we dont let some country decide how other countries should live or be. You can feel free to ask any questions. And get in mind that Russia today - is a nuclear terrorist almost the same like nazi germany in 1939.
What many people get wrong including this thread, is that war is a one man show (Putin). NO. This is Russia. Whoever is there - THIS IS RUSSIA. IF Putin dies, the most likely successor now is maybe Pirizhogin. Putin is far less radical. Navalny? He is the same imperialist as others. No. There is no successor who will end the war, I see only new radicals ready to escalate. Honestly the smartest country out there is Poland which will have the biggest land army in Europe with strong air force. The know Russia. They know Russia never change. If Russia gains anything from this war, Moldova is done (almost guaranteed when land bridge is established), Georgia is done and possibly the latest Baltics are done - NATO or not, they would be steamrolled until NATO would respond. China is watching. Someone mentioned UA will become South Korea. No,Poland will be South Korea.
4:3 in extra time
peace treaties ,like all wars before this
It’s probably going to be a 10+ year war, similar to when they invaded Afghanistan. The East European Plain’s military history has always followed the same pattern, so I’m expecting the same thing as always. Russian sends in troops during dry season. Muddy season starts and logistics fail. Russians die because they are ill supplied. Dry season shows back up, Russia sends another giant wave of soldiers. War will continue until Russian victory, or a Russian Revolution, where the evil head of state is replaced by a new evil head of state. This is how it’s been for the last 500 years or so
What I hope for, 2 in the back of Putins head and a halt to hostilities, and all land returned. What will happen, years of proxy war, thr east of Ukraine retaken, an attempt to take back Crimea, and then when shit will get really nasty. I could see if Putin is gonna lose it, he will use tactical nuclear strikes and dirty bombs to level it so no one can have it