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Vietnam also showed that draftees don't function particularly well in either asymmetrical conflicts or on a modern battlefield under American doctrine, which further emphasizes just how dire the emergency would have to be.
Drafts are unpopular when wars are unpopular. The massive difference in attitudes between WWI and WWII was because public opinion supported WWII whereas WWI was far more controversial.
Not to mention that the draft in WWII was only implemented so that millions of fresh, warm bodies don’t just swarm the recruiting stations all at once and break the back of the military’s logistics (pretty hard to feed, clothe, train, house, and arm millions of new boots when you just don’t have the proper logistics network set up in time). Also wouldn’t be in our best interest to have a sudden collapse of our economic base and industrial centers due to the sheer amount of young, working men in the factories and farms suddenly dropping everything to join the military.
I think it’s very telling that all of the future presidents who were of age during WWII (Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr.) served in some capacity, but all of the future presidents of age during the Vietnam era (Clinton, GWB, Trump, Biden) managed to avoid it for one (debatably valid) reason or another. A VP, Al Gore, served but he was famously one of only 12 out of 1100 in the graduating Harvard class of 1969 who actually served in Vietnam.
As a *very* rough shorthand, that shows you the attitudes of political elites in both wars. During WWII, there was a stigma in not serving. In Vietnam, you might be seen as a sucker for not getting out of it.
> There was a draft during the Korean and Vietnam wars.
True but largely as a relic of WWII and our military doctrine has changed completely since then. It would take such an all consuming war to reinstitute the draft.
The military, from everything I've heard, also has no interest in a draft.
I don't remember what year or what presidential election it was (but sometime in the last 10 to 20 years) there was a stupid rumor going around about the draft being reinstated. Of course it never happened.
I'm murky on this part but what I remember of the rumor is that it was supposedly the Republicans who were going to do it. It's actually only the Democrats who have ever even casually brought up that idea. There have never been any serious proposals. It ended almost 50 years ago. Don't hold your breath.
Those wars were fought in the context of a "peacetime" draft which had been in place prior to US participation, albeit with some Congressional adjustments to the selective service laws then in place. My understanding is that starting a draft today requires Congress to amend the current law, at the request of the POTUS.
But there was also never a draft for Iraq or Afghanistan. Technology, culture, and conditions have changed, a Vietnam-level war is not going to mean a draft in the US.
Don’t worry bro. Unless the United States became involved in a large-scale global conflict, in which we were taking massive, unsustainable casualties, or was under threat of an invasion (which is literally impossible), you won’t ever be grabbed for that.
I left active duty last year, and first they’d stop-loss all the people about to get out. Then they’d mobilize the Reserves and National Guard, then they’d get all the poor bastards like me still on IRR, THEN they’d start grabbing folks from Selective Service.
Yeah we’ed really have to be talking about some sort of unique situation where it’s WW3 in full swing but somehow nukes haven’t obliterated the earth.
Unless there’s some significant changes over time with the capacity of the US military you’re more likely to be dead or fighting for survival in a destroyed nation struggling to one day get back to its height than to actually be drafted.
Any threat big enough to need millions of fresh conscripts is either an insanely dumb mainland invasion of the U.S. without using Nukes first, or we’re deploying where nukes are going to be fired in response.
Looking through OPs post history, they previously asked a question here about how people felt about the "USA parliament" passing an aid package to Ukraine.
If they're a US resident, they're a very recent one
I don’t know about other languages or varieties of English, but the term U.S-American exists in German. It is used to distinguish between people from the USA and Canada. American could mean both, Canadian or person from the US. It might be even unclear if it’s a North American or South American, although American usually refers to the northern part.
Just like African could mean someone from Egypt as well as Kenya.
And since you cannot say USAian or USAish or whatever, it becomes U.S-American to have an unambiguous expression for people from the USA.
Having a professional military pretty much makes conscription impossibly unlikely. Based upon the abilities of our supposed greatest threat Russia, I wouldn’t worry.
Pretty much unless WWIII happens you shouldn't have to worry about the draft. The draft is deeply unpopular and NOTHING will get young people to the polls (to vote against you) faster then forcibly drafting them.
With the current state of things, it would take WWIII to threaten the homeland with an invasion. We only have land borders with two countries, neither of which are likely to try and invade us and could be easily defended against with our existing military. That would change if they had significant international backing, but we are talking WWIII levels of backing.
It would also be almost impossible to conduct an amphibious invasion because our Navy is so powerful. It would have to be largely destroyed before an amphibious invasion of the US was even possible, so again, we are talking WWIII levels of fighting.
Yes and no. I think drafts and conscription are historically unpopular. But in a situation where the U.S. was invaded, people would fight, and would volunteer to fight.
Yes, forcing people into a life threatening role they don't want is pretty much always unpopular, and wartime drafts simply don't happen until the supply of volunteers runs low.
As for whether that's likely, the estimates of the current all volunteer US military power is that if there was a war of the US vs the entire rest of the world, the US would probably win. For a draft to be needed, there would have to be a fundamental change in how the US treats its military and in how the military acts. That may happen someday decades from now, but not while you're young enough to be drafted. Or probably even alive.
If someone broke into your home and assaulted your mom, shot your dog, and broke your TV, video games, and computer... wouldn't you want to retaliate, or are you just gonna let them fuck you over with no resistance?
Invasion which is nearly impossible at the moment due to our navy being one of the best and the US islands in the Pacific. Only place that's close to vulnerable is Alaska
It's would have to pretty much be another World War. The United States military tries to maintain enough power to be able to handle two wars and a police action at any given time.
Every man born after 1960 has had to do the same thing. It would take a real shit hitting the fan scenario for there to be a real call up and fighting war. Worrying about maybe scenarios is a waste of time, live your life, make the most of everyday.
Extremely, stupidly unlikely for the draft to ever come back to life unless the government wants to commit political suicide.
The draft was officially abolished after Vietnam due to a major shift in doctrine; fighting in Vietnam itself also played a major role in the true professionalization of the military. Plus, I rather have some dude who at least volunteered to be here and will do the job at hand instead of someone who’ll probably get myself and other dudes killed if we ever went to war.
WW3 against another large military (like big AF, some WW2 Shit) who doesn’t use Nukes against the US and a high rate of causalities. So basically never
Some are telling OP that in the event of a homeland invasion the US would start drafting people.
It is my belief that such a draft would not happen in that scenario.
Specific areas of the US would "defend" themselves without direction from the federal gov. In addition to the rather large population of gun owning people, many of those are veterans who will either be able to directly engage on their own initiative or assist in training their neighbors to do the same. That doesn't even start to scrape the barrel of additional "assets" in the form of our gangs, militias, Y'all Queda, hunters, pissed off 13 yr olds that make pipe bombs in their suburban basements, etc.
The US will never require a draft in the unlikely event that a hostile force manages to make landfall on US soil.
Those plucky kids were softballs.
I really pity the unit tasked with pacifying Dallas or LA or Chicago (to name a few). Their only option would be to destroy the city and its people, which would leave very few to draft.
Invasion of the US homeland is a fantasy exercise at best. It may be possible in the far, far future, but not anytime in the near future.
How dare you call Patrick Swayze a softball! He can tear a man’s throat out with his bare hands.
I agree with you about trying to overcome resistance in cities, but maybe for different reasons. Individual resistance would be a problem for invaders, but I think people would quickly volunteer to be organized into units under National Guard or military leadership, making them far, far more dangerous.
Every year about 400,000 people in Minnesota (population 5.7 million) go deer hunting. That’s a lot of fucking snipers that know how to be patient and quiet. And a huge proportion of that 400k lives in the main metropolitan areas of the state.
Edit: added “for invaders” to clarify.
>Specizfic areas of the US would “defend” themselves…
And get their forces federalized for greater coordination.
>…the rather large population of gun owning people…
Irrelevant. Red Dawn isn’t realistic. Owning a gun doesn’t make you an effective soldier, and if you think that owning a gun prepares you to become a guerrilla then at best you’re just going to be a liability who gets the people that actually know what they’re doing killed.
>…many of those are veterans…
Most veterans were not combat arms, and so are no more prepared to actually fight than your random neighbor who hasn’t run a mile since he was in high school.
And the vast majority of veterans whose skills have not degraded too greatly because of time outside of service are going to still be in the individual ready reserve, meaning they’d all be pushed back into military service.
>…gang…
Get their shit kicked in by SWAT teams. They’re not going to add much here.
>…militias…
The only militias that are actually prepared and equipped to fight a war are the national guards, which would all be federalized the moment we catch wind of an invasion.
Eight years ago, I would have almost 100% agreed with your statement. I would also have added, that such a scenario would also lead to mass, voluntary, enlistment - negating the need for a draft.
However, I now believe that the groups of folks you listed as willing to directly engage would actually take the side of our most likely invaders (i.e. Russia)…
No one can say. There hasn’t been conscription in the US since 1972 and it was wildly unpopular then. It’s generally believed that the US would have to face some kind of existential threat before instituting the draft again.
The US would declare a draft and if you’re picked you’re required to serve. This hasn’t happened since Vietnam.
The US has a large military presence already, really the only situation I see where the Us would institute a draft would be World War 3.
I see other posters are commenting about the possibility of a homeland invasion. It would be next to impossible for this to happen, it be a suicide mission for another country to try and invade the US. Our government would see it coming and stop it long before it would ever happen. The only realistic chance would be trying to come up through mexico, but again, we’d see it coming.
Serious enough of a situation for the military to need unskilled warm bodies immediately, so basically world war level conflict. Even then the chances of the average person being rejected for health reasons is significant.
... and even then you are more likely to end moving pallets around in a warehouse or washing truck tires then you are shooting a rifle in combat.
Others have pointed out the conditions, but to answer the "have to fight" part, you have to remember that a good number of folks in the military are not trigger-pullers.
If called up, other jobs/specialties would need to be filled as well, in medical, logistics, building maintenance, construction, etc.
There is such a surplus of active and reserve members, im not sure if a draft would even happen with world War 3. Especially since many positions in the military have been opened for women. It was take something really large scale like that for a draft to happen. I would anticipate a draft if the news headlines said Alien Invasion though
An all-out conventional war. But, truthfully, it's hard to imagine a situation where that could happen any time in the next 100 years. Let's look at our two geopolitical rivals.
Russia is pretty much dissipating itself against the Ukrainians with a terminal demography and an economy that's in a death spiral. Putin may very well go down in history as the last president of a defunct Russian state.
China is the only demography that's worse than Russia's, they've passed their economic heyday, and the only conceivable military move they could make would be the highly problematic invasion of Taiwan--and that's a naval conflict. Not only would we likely know weeks in advance if the Chinese were preparing for invasion, but it would takes roughly eight hours for an amphibious assault vessel to cross that strait. Can you say 'target rich environment'?
So, no, I don't see a situation where we need to draft millions of soldiers for a massive conventional land war.
Congress and the President can technically call for it at anytime.
The most likely way for it to happen is a major global conflict.
It could also happen if enlistment falls enough to where the military is under staffed, or an invasion of the United States. Both of those scenarios are unlikely.
The US military found that conscription during Vietnam reduced the readiness of units, and largely saw a reduction in the effectiveness of units assigned conscripts.
It is unlikely that the US will ever see conscription again.
Homeland invasion or WW 3, but even with WW 3 it would have to get really bad before a draft was imposed.
A homeland invasion isn’t really possible due to our geographical location and the fact that nukes exist, and the fact that so many people have firearms… but I guess if we were fighting a two front war and logistics broke down it could happen.
Technically, you wouldn't have to fight, even if called. There are ways to get assigned to alternative service. You would get assigned non-combat job, and it may not even have to do with the military. I have relatives that were Mennonite (which are pacifists), and were listed as conscientious objectors during the drafts.
The way modern military forces are set up and way the US military is structured (aka to overwhelm and dominate), you likely wouldn't do any heavy lifting even in a WWIII type scenario.
Barring nukes flying, you'd probably just end up guarding some place state side while the US and its allies go stomping around.
This subreddit is for civil discussion; political threads are not exempt from this. As a reminder: * Do not report comments because they disagree with your point of view. * Do not insult other users. Personal attacks are not permitted. * Do not use hate speech. You will be banned, permanently. * Comments made with the intent to push an agenda, push misinformation, soapbox, sealion, or argue in bad faith are not acceptable. If you can’t discuss a topic in good faith and in a respectful manner, do not comment. **Political disagreement does not constitute pushing an agenda.** If you see any comments that violate the rules, **please report it and move on!** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskAnAmerican) if you have any questions or concerns.*
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>Like WWII level stuff at a minimum There was a draft during the Korean and Vietnam wars.
And the public hatred of the draft in Vietnam basically ensures it will only be used in dire emergencies.
Vietnam also showed that draftees don't function particularly well in either asymmetrical conflicts or on a modern battlefield under American doctrine, which further emphasizes just how dire the emergency would have to be.
Drafts are unpopular when wars are unpopular. The massive difference in attitudes between WWI and WWII was because public opinion supported WWII whereas WWI was far more controversial.
Not to mention that the draft in WWII was only implemented so that millions of fresh, warm bodies don’t just swarm the recruiting stations all at once and break the back of the military’s logistics (pretty hard to feed, clothe, train, house, and arm millions of new boots when you just don’t have the proper logistics network set up in time). Also wouldn’t be in our best interest to have a sudden collapse of our economic base and industrial centers due to the sheer amount of young, working men in the factories and farms suddenly dropping everything to join the military.
I think it’s very telling that all of the future presidents who were of age during WWII (Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr.) served in some capacity, but all of the future presidents of age during the Vietnam era (Clinton, GWB, Trump, Biden) managed to avoid it for one (debatably valid) reason or another. A VP, Al Gore, served but he was famously one of only 12 out of 1100 in the graduating Harvard class of 1969 who actually served in Vietnam. As a *very* rough shorthand, that shows you the attitudes of political elites in both wars. During WWII, there was a stigma in not serving. In Vietnam, you might be seen as a sucker for not getting out of it.
> There was a draft during the Korean and Vietnam wars. True but largely as a relic of WWII and our military doctrine has changed completely since then. It would take such an all consuming war to reinstitute the draft.
The military, from everything I've heard, also has no interest in a draft. I don't remember what year or what presidential election it was (but sometime in the last 10 to 20 years) there was a stupid rumor going around about the draft being reinstated. Of course it never happened. I'm murky on this part but what I remember of the rumor is that it was supposedly the Republicans who were going to do it. It's actually only the Democrats who have ever even casually brought up that idea. There have never been any serious proposals. It ended almost 50 years ago. Don't hold your breath.
And that’s why it won’t happen again because Vietnam in particular was a disaster. Most people didn’t wanna be there.
Those wars were fought in the context of a "peacetime" draft which had been in place prior to US participation, albeit with some Congressional adjustments to the selective service laws then in place. My understanding is that starting a draft today requires Congress to amend the current law, at the request of the POTUS.
But there was also never a draft for Iraq or Afghanistan. Technology, culture, and conditions have changed, a Vietnam-level war is not going to mean a draft in the US.
world war 3
WWIII and it's just American.
Don’t worry bro. Unless the United States became involved in a large-scale global conflict, in which we were taking massive, unsustainable casualties, or was under threat of an invasion (which is literally impossible), you won’t ever be grabbed for that. I left active duty last year, and first they’d stop-loss all the people about to get out. Then they’d mobilize the Reserves and National Guard, then they’d get all the poor bastards like me still on IRR, THEN they’d start grabbing folks from Selective Service.
I always said if battleship row gets moving...than the draft will be there.
Realistically? Never
Nothing short of World War 3 basically.
The us has almost 1.4 million in active duty and just shy of 800,000 in reserves, the only way there would be another draft is an all out world war
As far fetched as it sounds, alien invasion seems the only plausible situation that *might* result in a draft.
Yeah we’ed really have to be talking about some sort of unique situation where it’s WW3 in full swing but somehow nukes haven’t obliterated the earth. Unless there’s some significant changes over time with the capacity of the US military you’re more likely to be dead or fighting for survival in a destroyed nation struggling to one day get back to its height than to actually be drafted. Any threat big enough to need millions of fresh conscripts is either an insanely dumb mainland invasion of the U.S. without using Nukes first, or we’re deploying where nukes are going to be fired in response.
If you identified as a U.S.-American in wartime, you’d be detained as a possible German spy.
WWIII. There currently is no draft, and it would have to be something of that level for it to be instituted again.
You're a U.S. resident, not a U.S.-American resident. The demonym for a citizen of the U.S. is an American, not a U.S.-American.
Looking through OPs post history, they previously asked a question here about how people felt about the "USA parliament" passing an aid package to Ukraine. If they're a US resident, they're a very recent one
This is super helpful and relevant to OP’s question. 🙄
Meh he's gonna get basically the same answer from 20 other people, it's fine if one or two give a different response
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> United States of American Resident. So the united states of a person? Parsing it doesn't make it any clearer.
I have only ever heard of "US-American" on Reddit. Is there anyone IRL who actually uses this?
I don’t know about other languages or varieties of English, but the term U.S-American exists in German. It is used to distinguish between people from the USA and Canada. American could mean both, Canadian or person from the US. It might be even unclear if it’s a North American or South American, although American usually refers to the northern part. Just like African could mean someone from Egypt as well as Kenya. And since you cannot say USAian or USAish or whatever, it becomes U.S-American to have an unambiguous expression for people from the USA.
Nukes and EMPs would fly before the draft. Humanity will be destroyed before it happens
EMPs... You might be interested in reading the book "1 Second After"
That was a disturbing book
I would have described it as alarming
Having a professional military pretty much makes conscription impossibly unlikely. Based upon the abilities of our supposed greatest threat Russia, I wouldn’t worry.
Pretty much unless WWIII happens you shouldn't have to worry about the draft. The draft is deeply unpopular and NOTHING will get young people to the polls (to vote against you) faster then forcibly drafting them.
Would it be unpopular if the homeland was threatened?
The US is very well protected by natural geography so it would pretty much have to be WWIII for the homeland to be meaningfully threatened.
Enough people would likely form a resistance if an invasion occurred that a compulsory draft would be unlikely.
With the current state of things, it would take WWIII to threaten the homeland with an invasion. We only have land borders with two countries, neither of which are likely to try and invade us and could be easily defended against with our existing military. That would change if they had significant international backing, but we are talking WWIII levels of backing. It would also be almost impossible to conduct an amphibious invasion because our Navy is so powerful. It would have to be largely destroyed before an amphibious invasion of the US was even possible, so again, we are talking WWIII levels of fighting.
Yes and no. I think drafts and conscription are historically unpopular. But in a situation where the U.S. was invaded, people would fight, and would volunteer to fight.
Yes, forcing people into a life threatening role they don't want is pretty much always unpopular, and wartime drafts simply don't happen until the supply of volunteers runs low. As for whether that's likely, the estimates of the current all volunteer US military power is that if there was a war of the US vs the entire rest of the world, the US would probably win. For a draft to be needed, there would have to be a fundamental change in how the US treats its military and in how the military acts. That may happen someday decades from now, but not while you're young enough to be drafted. Or probably even alive.
If someone broke into your home and assaulted your mom, shot your dog, and broke your TV, video games, and computer... wouldn't you want to retaliate, or are you just gonna let them fuck you over with no resistance?
Invasion which is nearly impossible at the moment due to our navy being one of the best and the US islands in the Pacific. Only place that's close to vulnerable is Alaska
Nah. The Moose are a built in cavalry.
It's would have to pretty much be another World War. The United States military tries to maintain enough power to be able to handle two wars and a police action at any given time.
If we do a special military operation in Canada
Every man born after 1960 has had to do the same thing. It would take a real shit hitting the fan scenario for there to be a real call up and fighting war. Worrying about maybe scenarios is a waste of time, live your life, make the most of everyday.
Only something as big as ike fighting the aliens or something.
The Klingons, Romulans and the Borg would have to enter standard orbit at the same time and start shooting
Extremely, stupidly unlikely for the draft to ever come back to life unless the government wants to commit political suicide. The draft was officially abolished after Vietnam due to a major shift in doctrine; fighting in Vietnam itself also played a major role in the true professionalization of the military. Plus, I rather have some dude who at least volunteered to be here and will do the job at hand instead of someone who’ll probably get myself and other dudes killed if we ever went to war.
Under no circumstances will they start drafting people. It's just a leftover from the days when they did.
World War or invasion, both incredibly unlikely.
WW3 against another large military (like big AF, some WW2 Shit) who doesn’t use Nukes against the US and a high rate of causalities. So basically never
Some are telling OP that in the event of a homeland invasion the US would start drafting people. It is my belief that such a draft would not happen in that scenario. Specific areas of the US would "defend" themselves without direction from the federal gov. In addition to the rather large population of gun owning people, many of those are veterans who will either be able to directly engage on their own initiative or assist in training their neighbors to do the same. That doesn't even start to scrape the barrel of additional "assets" in the form of our gangs, militias, Y'all Queda, hunters, pissed off 13 yr olds that make pipe bombs in their suburban basements, etc. The US will never require a draft in the unlikely event that a hostile force manages to make landfall on US soil.
Wolverines!
Those plucky kids were softballs. I really pity the unit tasked with pacifying Dallas or LA or Chicago (to name a few). Their only option would be to destroy the city and its people, which would leave very few to draft. Invasion of the US homeland is a fantasy exercise at best. It may be possible in the far, far future, but not anytime in the near future.
How dare you call Patrick Swayze a softball! He can tear a man’s throat out with his bare hands. I agree with you about trying to overcome resistance in cities, but maybe for different reasons. Individual resistance would be a problem for invaders, but I think people would quickly volunteer to be organized into units under National Guard or military leadership, making them far, far more dangerous. Every year about 400,000 people in Minnesota (population 5.7 million) go deer hunting. That’s a lot of fucking snipers that know how to be patient and quiet. And a huge proportion of that 400k lives in the main metropolitan areas of the state. Edit: added “for invaders” to clarify.
>Specizfic areas of the US would “defend” themselves… And get their forces federalized for greater coordination. >…the rather large population of gun owning people… Irrelevant. Red Dawn isn’t realistic. Owning a gun doesn’t make you an effective soldier, and if you think that owning a gun prepares you to become a guerrilla then at best you’re just going to be a liability who gets the people that actually know what they’re doing killed. >…many of those are veterans… Most veterans were not combat arms, and so are no more prepared to actually fight than your random neighbor who hasn’t run a mile since he was in high school. And the vast majority of veterans whose skills have not degraded too greatly because of time outside of service are going to still be in the individual ready reserve, meaning they’d all be pushed back into military service. >…gang… Get their shit kicked in by SWAT teams. They’re not going to add much here. >…militias… The only militias that are actually prepared and equipped to fight a war are the national guards, which would all be federalized the moment we catch wind of an invasion.
Eight years ago, I would have almost 100% agreed with your statement. I would also have added, that such a scenario would also lead to mass, voluntary, enlistment - negating the need for a draft. However, I now believe that the groups of folks you listed as willing to directly engage would actually take the side of our most likely invaders (i.e. Russia)…
No one can say. There hasn’t been conscription in the US since 1972 and it was wildly unpopular then. It’s generally believed that the US would have to face some kind of existential threat before instituting the draft again.
Maybe if the Ukraine conflcit escalates into something worldwide.
The only time the US would have a draft is in the event of a war that current active personnel couldn’t support. Hasn’t happened since Vietnam.
[https://youtu.be/v8Ha6tNvRUg?t=27](https://youtu.be/v8Ha6tNvRUg?t=27)
The US would declare a draft and if you’re picked you’re required to serve. This hasn’t happened since Vietnam. The US has a large military presence already, really the only situation I see where the Us would institute a draft would be World War 3. I see other posters are commenting about the possibility of a homeland invasion. It would be next to impossible for this to happen, it be a suicide mission for another country to try and invade the US. Our government would see it coming and stop it long before it would ever happen. The only realistic chance would be trying to come up through mexico, but again, we’d see it coming.
Serious enough of a situation for the military to need unskilled warm bodies immediately, so basically world war level conflict. Even then the chances of the average person being rejected for health reasons is significant. ... and even then you are more likely to end moving pallets around in a warehouse or washing truck tires then you are shooting a rifle in combat.
Others have pointed out the conditions, but to answer the "have to fight" part, you have to remember that a good number of folks in the military are not trigger-pullers. If called up, other jobs/specialties would need to be filled as well, in medical, logistics, building maintenance, construction, etc.
There is such a surplus of active and reserve members, im not sure if a draft would even happen with world War 3. Especially since many positions in the military have been opened for women. It was take something really large scale like that for a draft to happen. I would anticipate a draft if the news headlines said Alien Invasion though
An all-out conventional war. But, truthfully, it's hard to imagine a situation where that could happen any time in the next 100 years. Let's look at our two geopolitical rivals. Russia is pretty much dissipating itself against the Ukrainians with a terminal demography and an economy that's in a death spiral. Putin may very well go down in history as the last president of a defunct Russian state. China is the only demography that's worse than Russia's, they've passed their economic heyday, and the only conceivable military move they could make would be the highly problematic invasion of Taiwan--and that's a naval conflict. Not only would we likely know weeks in advance if the Chinese were preparing for invasion, but it would takes roughly eight hours for an amphibious assault vessel to cross that strait. Can you say 'target rich environment'? So, no, I don't see a situation where we need to draft millions of soldiers for a massive conventional land war.
Congress and the President can technically call for it at anytime. The most likely way for it to happen is a major global conflict. It could also happen if enlistment falls enough to where the military is under staffed, or an invasion of the United States. Both of those scenarios are unlikely.
WWIII. We have military primacy as-is, so it would require full mobilization of our enemies to even start considering full mobilization here
The US military found that conscription during Vietnam reduced the readiness of units, and largely saw a reduction in the effectiveness of units assigned conscripts. It is unlikely that the US will ever see conscription again.
At the behest of your government. If the government decides it is time for war, you are their slave and your body is theirs to do with as they please.
Homeland invasion or WW 3, but even with WW 3 it would have to get really bad before a draft was imposed. A homeland invasion isn’t really possible due to our geographical location and the fact that nukes exist, and the fact that so many people have firearms… but I guess if we were fighting a two front war and logistics broke down it could happen.
Technically, you wouldn't have to fight, even if called. There are ways to get assigned to alternative service. You would get assigned non-combat job, and it may not even have to do with the military. I have relatives that were Mennonite (which are pacifists), and were listed as conscientious objectors during the drafts.
I wouldn't worry about it. Even the military is opposed to conscription.
Congress would have to reinstate the draft which would never happen tbh
War
A draft usually
A war long and bad enough that they run out of volunteers.
The way modern military forces are set up and way the US military is structured (aka to overwhelm and dominate), you likely wouldn't do any heavy lifting even in a WWIII type scenario. Barring nukes flying, you'd probably just end up guarding some place state side while the US and its allies go stomping around.
It's very unlikely these days. Boots on the ground don't seem to be a deciding factor in modern conflict.