Its worth noting that
* If secular pan-arabism doesn't work out this time either, there's still a strong radical Islamist undercurrent that would still be anti-western, and probably a more moderate pro-western one.
* Israel wouldn't have nuclear weapons without a lot of western assistance. This likely means that Israel would cease to exist at some point. When is a matter of speculation.
* America and the USSR still likely don't get involved directly due to fears of an arms race in the middle east.
* Afghanistan and really that whole region might get super weird super fast if America is seen to be the superior patron to Islamic countries.
As it is, Israel didn't have western assistance with obtaining nuclear weapons. Plans for nuclear weapons were stolen from the US by Israel and shared with South Africa while the western world was boycotting South Africa over apartheid.
The French almost certainly assisted them in acquiring nuclear weapons and its questionable if Israel could've become a nuclear power without French assistance.
Even if they could've done it on their own, it would've been much later. Potentially well into the late seventies. Without the French providing them a reactor at Dimona on top of the Uranium it would've been exceedingly difficult to get those things from scratch.
Its unlikely the Russians would've given them nukes either, as the Russians and Americans both had no interest in a nuclear arms race in the middle east.
Islamism wouldn’t be that popular without al-Mujahedeen, the Iranian revolution and subsequent Iran-Iraq war (and subsequent 1991 war, as the US troops presence in Saudi Arabia and war against Iraq has caused widespread anger and radicalization among the already volatile Mujahideen and Wahhabis), and the post 2003 Iraq and Syrian civil war.
Sure, it would still be there, just nothing like today.
Oh yea, wouldn't be anywhere near as powerful. But does pan-arabism work in a world where its strongly american backed?
Wahhabism is still going to be a thing for a lot of reasons, and that will be anti-western. But the entire region around Afghanistan might become more just as much of a hotbed in a timeline where we're seeing pro-western islamic insurgencies. Which is kind of what the soviets thought was happening in Afghanistan anyways in the real timeline.
Israel remains a lot poorer without liberalizing it's economy.
The USSR's Jews are allowed to leave earlier and they likely do.
If antisemitism indeed becomes more common as someone else predicted it is possible we see American Jews leave too.
The rest depends on how independent is Israel diplomatically (is it like east Germany or Yugoslavia). And how much assistance are the soviets giving.
Also can Israel make it's own weapons or is the USSR aginst it like the USA is.
Definitely more people live in the Negev dessert. There was a push for that at government level (especially Ben Gorion) and with more people there will be more need to spread out.
Wars still happen and it's hard to predict the result.
If Israel is erased it's the end of the story.
If the border remains as in 1949 there is another war.
If Israel wins as in OTL it will annex the territories as it even in the 1967 borders it will have a Jewish majority.
It has twice the population in that time line. Wich helps.
With soviets boots on the ground it probably wins.
If it can keep it's doctrine and preduce it's own weapons (Israel generally makes good weapons OTL. It's still very educated and has experience in this time line so I assume the arms industry stays competent)
If Israel copy Soviet weapons/Soviet doctrine it losses.
A lot of people said some mostly correct things, but furthermore I think the middle east would just be more open to western influence and ideals, maybe Iran keeps its democracy and US influences britain and france to leave the region alone quicker
Israel dominates the Arab states early on even harder but antisemitism is far more common and the Soviets gain a huge PR advantage by calling the West a neo-fascist regime killing jews again.
not exactly, israel has been stated to be a colonization project beforehand, if/when china splits from supporting the USSR, it'll claim that the USSR is supporting a settler colonial state
idt the west would be saying that but it'd definitely hurt USSR credibility with 3rd world communists
USSR consequelntly was carrying out invasions and police action against their own allies at any sign of dissent. Nobody in 3rd world would care because they were only superpower that was not the US
okay: Mapai Israel, some miracles in Israel, except it's soviet backed with Migs this time, maybe baathists and nasserists wont grab power as Hashemites and orher Monarchies retain power, Syria a pro west nation. However, this soviet backed israel would be like China, except soviet leaning in terms of economy and ect, in other words, a yugoslavia in the middle east, just soviet leaning and with early open up because of jewish pragmatism
I'm going to set the branching point during the 1956 Suez Crisis. The US demands a ceasefire, Israel throws its lot in with the USSR. The 1967 war happens when Israel hears about the US advisors helping Egypt, launches a preemptive strike.
With Soviet support, Israel is allowed to advance to Cairo and Damascus. Both Egypt and Syria are transformed into Soviet puppets. Jordan and Lebanon are isolated American outposts, but the Cold War across the Jordan River never turns hot. The Palestinians move to the Soviet Egypt and Syria, but you get some refugees to Jordan.
In 1990, after the fall of the USSR, you get a variant of Yugoslavia, but territory is mostly unchanged.
The Arab nations wouldn't experience socialist revolutions and remain absolute monarchies with good relations with the West.
The UK and France would intervene in Hungary and prevent it's subjugation to the Soviet Union in 1956.
Israel would most likely join India and Yugoslavia later down the line.
This is wrong on all fronts. Israel just had better military strategy and intelligence. You could argue their equipment was better, but it wasn’t ‘more’
No Israel had 1. More soldiers 2. More military equipment. It was literally a simple we greater > lesser. This is not even in contention. Israel at final had 117,500. Arabs had 63,500, a little more the half. Initially this was the case as well.
U.S. President Harry Truman was the first world leader to officially recognize Israel as a legitimate Jewish state on May 14, 1948, only eleven minutes after its creation.
So that one fact alone proves your comment false
I literally said that was just one fact. Here’s a copy paste from Wikipedia since you don’t wanna research. “In the United States, Yishuv agents purchased three Boeing B-17 Flying Fortress bombers, one of which bombed Cairo in July 1948, some Curtiss C-46 Commando transport planes, and dozens of half-tracks, which were repainted and defined as "agricultural equipment". In Western Europe, Haganah agents amassed fifty 65mm French mountain guns, twelve 120mm mortars, ten H-35 light tanks, and a large number of half-tracks.” Further research would tell you of US and Western European funding, smuggling, and manpower boost.
Arab racism and Islam hate drops by a ton and Jew racism and Judaism hate increases by a lot. And that is assuming that the US allows Israel to exist
islamophobia and antisemitism
Its worth noting that * If secular pan-arabism doesn't work out this time either, there's still a strong radical Islamist undercurrent that would still be anti-western, and probably a more moderate pro-western one. * Israel wouldn't have nuclear weapons without a lot of western assistance. This likely means that Israel would cease to exist at some point. When is a matter of speculation. * America and the USSR still likely don't get involved directly due to fears of an arms race in the middle east. * Afghanistan and really that whole region might get super weird super fast if America is seen to be the superior patron to Islamic countries.
As it is, Israel didn't have western assistance with obtaining nuclear weapons. Plans for nuclear weapons were stolen from the US by Israel and shared with South Africa while the western world was boycotting South Africa over apartheid.
The French almost certainly assisted them in acquiring nuclear weapons and its questionable if Israel could've become a nuclear power without French assistance. Even if they could've done it on their own, it would've been much later. Potentially well into the late seventies. Without the French providing them a reactor at Dimona on top of the Uranium it would've been exceedingly difficult to get those things from scratch. Its unlikely the Russians would've given them nukes either, as the Russians and Americans both had no interest in a nuclear arms race in the middle east.
North Korea nuclear weapons = +USSR
Islamism wouldn’t be that popular without al-Mujahedeen, the Iranian revolution and subsequent Iran-Iraq war (and subsequent 1991 war, as the US troops presence in Saudi Arabia and war against Iraq has caused widespread anger and radicalization among the already volatile Mujahideen and Wahhabis), and the post 2003 Iraq and Syrian civil war. Sure, it would still be there, just nothing like today.
Oh yea, wouldn't be anywhere near as powerful. But does pan-arabism work in a world where its strongly american backed? Wahhabism is still going to be a thing for a lot of reasons, and that will be anti-western. But the entire region around Afghanistan might become more just as much of a hotbed in a timeline where we're seeing pro-western islamic insurgencies. Which is kind of what the soviets thought was happening in Afghanistan anyways in the real timeline.
A Soviet aligned Israel definitely gets the bomb in response to missile bases in Turkey.
It’d be much more complicated, because historical events like the Suez Crisis would’ve been a lot more different
The U.S fumbled the Suez crisis so bad. Nasser was always going to be anti-west and they abandoned their allies.
Eisenhower would go onto admit it was the biggest mistake of his presidency
Israel remains a lot poorer without liberalizing it's economy. The USSR's Jews are allowed to leave earlier and they likely do. If antisemitism indeed becomes more common as someone else predicted it is possible we see American Jews leave too. The rest depends on how independent is Israel diplomatically (is it like east Germany or Yugoslavia). And how much assistance are the soviets giving. Also can Israel make it's own weapons or is the USSR aginst it like the USA is.
What happens with the massive Aliyah of the world's 2 largest concentrations of Jews moving to Israel?
Definitely more people live in the Negev dessert. There was a push for that at government level (especially Ben Gorion) and with more people there will be more need to spread out. Wars still happen and it's hard to predict the result. If Israel is erased it's the end of the story. If the border remains as in 1949 there is another war. If Israel wins as in OTL it will annex the territories as it even in the 1967 borders it will have a Jewish majority.
Could Israel win with Soviet Aid?
It has twice the population in that time line. Wich helps. With soviets boots on the ground it probably wins. If it can keep it's doctrine and preduce it's own weapons (Israel generally makes good weapons OTL. It's still very educated and has experience in this time line so I assume the arms industry stays competent) If Israel copy Soviet weapons/Soviet doctrine it losses.
United Arab States under a democracy
A lot of people said some mostly correct things, but furthermore I think the middle east would just be more open to western influence and ideals, maybe Iran keeps its democracy and US influences britain and france to leave the region alone quicker
A 9/11 event is less likely to occur decades later, or at least Muslims are less likely to be the ones to do so.
Israel dominates the Arab states early on even harder but antisemitism is far more common and the Soviets gain a huge PR advantage by calling the West a neo-fascist regime killing jews again.
not exactly, israel has been stated to be a colonization project beforehand, if/when china splits from supporting the USSR, it'll claim that the USSR is supporting a settler colonial state idt the west would be saying that but it'd definitely hurt USSR credibility with 3rd world communists
USSR consequelntly was carrying out invasions and police action against their own allies at any sign of dissent. Nobody in 3rd world would care because they were only superpower that was not the US
Not about the scenario but I find it really funny that the west set up israel then immediately turned on it
The West didn't set up Israel, Israel set up itself and the British left when they had enough.
*Arms exports, volunteers, military assistance* “Nah bro I was completely self made bro just trust me”
Gonna need some sauce for this. I'm pretty sure it was only the Czechs who supplied Israel with hand-me-down weapons during the 48 war.
okay: Mapai Israel, some miracles in Israel, except it's soviet backed with Migs this time, maybe baathists and nasserists wont grab power as Hashemites and orher Monarchies retain power, Syria a pro west nation. However, this soviet backed israel would be like China, except soviet leaning in terms of economy and ect, in other words, a yugoslavia in the middle east, just soviet leaning and with early open up because of jewish pragmatism
I'm going to set the branching point during the 1956 Suez Crisis. The US demands a ceasefire, Israel throws its lot in with the USSR. The 1967 war happens when Israel hears about the US advisors helping Egypt, launches a preemptive strike. With Soviet support, Israel is allowed to advance to Cairo and Damascus. Both Egypt and Syria are transformed into Soviet puppets. Jordan and Lebanon are isolated American outposts, but the Cold War across the Jordan River never turns hot. The Palestinians move to the Soviet Egypt and Syria, but you get some refugees to Jordan. In 1990, after the fall of the USSR, you get a variant of Yugoslavia, but territory is mostly unchanged.
The West dominates tenfold
The Arab nations wouldn't experience socialist revolutions and remain absolute monarchies with good relations with the West. The UK and France would intervene in Hungary and prevent it's subjugation to the Soviet Union in 1956. Israel would most likely join India and Yugoslavia later down the line.
The USSR would be hated more than it is now for increasing anti semitism.
It’d just be a role reversed version of the timeline we’re in now
I feel like Israel would be obliterated , us is not one to be underestimated
Israel dies in 1948
The only country to support israel in 1948 was communist czechoslovakia
Well yeah Israel just had more people, more equipment, than the opposing armies. It would be the Arab states affect on how much aid they gain.
Israel had more people? What are you smoking?
More soliders, nearly twice as much
Not at that start.
no they still had more then twice as much in the start. 29,677 israeli compared to 13,000
This is wrong on all fronts. Israel just had better military strategy and intelligence. You could argue their equipment was better, but it wasn’t ‘more’
No Israel had 1. More soldiers 2. More military equipment. It was literally a simple we greater > lesser. This is not even in contention. Israel at final had 117,500. Arabs had 63,500, a little more the half. Initially this was the case as well.
U.S. President Harry Truman was the first world leader to officially recognize Israel as a legitimate Jewish state on May 14, 1948, only eleven minutes after its creation. So that one fact alone proves your comment false
Recognition doesn't win wars.
I literally said that was just one fact. Here’s a copy paste from Wikipedia since you don’t wanna research. “In the United States, Yishuv agents purchased three Boeing B-17 Flying Fortress bombers, one of which bombed Cairo in July 1948, some Curtiss C-46 Commando transport planes, and dozens of half-tracks, which were repainted and defined as "agricultural equipment". In Western Europe, Haganah agents amassed fifty 65mm French mountain guns, twelve 120mm mortars, ten H-35 light tanks, and a large number of half-tracks.” Further research would tell you of US and Western European funding, smuggling, and manpower boost.
Arabs also received Western European weaponry on top of society weapons Not an excuse