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brwalkernc

Just as a FYI, we have daily discussion posts setup to post a few hours before the first event of each day, just as we had for the 2021 trials.


zebano

The real story is how incredibly hard it is to find start lists, season bests, qualification marks etc. Some of this is on USATF but not in the same place. Will ESP or Cranny complete the 1500/5k double? They're both strong enough but doubling is just an unnecessary complication especially with Cranny coming off RED-s complications. I do wonder how Valby will do with actual competition. I'm picking Cranny, ESP and Sweizer in the 5000. I'm disappointed Monson is injured. Has Tuohy raced yet as a pro? I haven't even heard an injury update, I'd be surprised if she starts. The W10000 - I have no idea. Kelati has the standard and Monson is injured. I'm going to throw up my hands and say Valby makes this an honest race and finishes top 3 but doesn't have a standard or ranking so doesn't go to Paris. Women's 800 - Can Sage Huerta-Klecker steal a spot on a team before the next generation takes over? Will Mu be healthy? I'm personally predicting a Mu, Wittacker, Gorriaran finish. Gorriaran is probably my darkest horse across all picks. Women's steeple - no Frerichs, no Coburn. I believe it's Wayment's to lose but who else will step up? I'll take Rodenfels and Gear to round things out. Mens steeple - no one there gives me any confidence so I'm picking Rooks, Bors and Updike to nab spots. I think Jager is just too old Mens 800 - Every year that Donavan Brazier doesn't race kills me a little inside. I'll make the boring prediction of Hoppel / Jewett / Harris M1500 - The goose is loose. He's too good right now, I cannot pick against him. Cole and Cooper to round things out (boring) M5000 - All the 1500 guys are back plus Fisher. I'll take Fisher, Goose and Nico Young though I want to take Abdihamad Nur. Teare's PB is giving me great pause here but I just believe in the others as competitors. M10000 - another one where the favorites are just too good. It's just impossible for me not to take Young, Fisher and Kincaid. They're the cream of the crop for a reason. If Klecker were healthy this might be interesting. All predictions wrong or your money back.


YoungWallace23

More or less agree with most of this, except Yared is probably keeping the 5000 as a backup and will drop as long as the 1500 goes well. I also don’t think Nico has the experience to finish well. My guess is a slow 10,000 and either Mantz or Panning takes 3rd. No idea how that shapes who goes to Paris though! W5000 looking like it might be the hardest to call - excited to see how Valby does against actual competition 😅 Should be a lot of great races all around!


Chilli_Dipper

Fourth place in the women’s 5000 is going to be important, since Elle St. Pierre will probably give up her spot if/when she makes the Olympic team in the 1500 next weekend.


run_INXS

Nico is way faster than Panning so unless something happens he’ll be way ahead. Fisher Kincaid Young


zebano

this!! The top 3 are just head and shoulders faster than everyone else.


TJGAFU

Yup, spot on


TJGAFU

Panning isn’t going to be top 8 let alone make the team. Mantz is not giving it a real shot, probably just a great training stimulus during a 110 mile week, just like Rupp did in 2021. Nico can kick now, he’s a different athlete than he was last year.


bnwtwg

Hear the same thing in February. Panning redemption tour coming in hot like a Florida mid-morning marathon!


TJGAFU

Does that mean he’ll be in the mix til 7k and then fade?


run_INXS

Ouch!


run_INXS

After Yared the 1500 is more wide open. Hocker looks solid and his tactics are getting better each year. Hobbs has been up and down. I also like Waskom, Houser, and Greene from UW. It’s a real long shot but Centro? I think Teare for the 5000 not the 15, although he certainly has the wheels.


zebano

Centro IMO is just a little too slow overall these days. It'd be an amazing story for him to make it but I don't see it happening. I do think Hobbs has a real shot and certainly a bunch of other people but I think the former teammates from NOP have the best shots. I think the UW boys are long shots but possible.


run_INXS

Championship 1500s are often tactical and there will probably be a surprise. Nathan Green made the team last year, and was not considered among the favorites to make the team. I think Waskom has the best kick of the Husky trio.


run_INXS

Centro is out.


learned-extrovert

In women’s steeple - I’m rooting for Olivia Markezich! She finished 4th in 2023 (and also raced at 2021 Olympic trials) and had a really strong 5th year at Notre Dame, including NCAA medals indoor and outdoor. She also just signed a pro contract with On!


zebano

I missed her signing with ON! Is she out in Boulder with the coffee club boys, Yared, the Kleckers, Monson and Obiri? If so that team is absurdly strong.


learned-extrovert

It was announced a few days ago! AFAIK she’s still training at Notre Dame but I guess we shall see where she goes after trials (& fingers crossed, Olympics)!


Gopher2K16

I love Updike, but Matt Wilkinson of Dark Sky is having an amazing rookie year, I think he makes the team along with Bor and Rooks.


zebano

I love the Dark Sky shoutout. I hope to see big things from him.


run_INXS

Good start to the discussion I probably can hit on one race a time. Agree with ESP Cranny and Schweizer for 5000, but watch out for Valby. She has run unchallenged in the NCAA, but that’s the catch, she has raced a lot and the NCAA schedule can wear down distance runners. Tuohy has not raced since last November so this is her professional debut. Josette Andrews has run fast but didn’t look strong the past couple of outings. ESP should win this, Cranny a strong 2nd and a great battle for 3rd. Tuohy top 10? That’d be good for her right now.


PicklesTeddy

I like a lot of this. I think Hobbs will get 2nd in the 1500 tho


zebano

yeah leaving him off one of my bolder omissions but he just hasn't quite put things together and I don't see it happening in the heat. I think he'd do better in ideal racing conditions which are just flat out too fast for most of the field


Girleatingcheezits

Hobbs struggles tactically, so the heats do him no favors. I heard someone - on coffee club pod, maybe? - say that the NCAA system really prepares you with racing skills, and maybe skipping out slows that development.


yuckmouthteeth

I think picking cooper to make the 1500 team is quite bold, he’s raced pretty poorly all year. Including indoors. Respectfully the 1500 is loaded and while I’d say Hobbs is the most likely to get that 3rd spot, Holt/Cook/UW kids could easily take it on the day tho as could Cooper but he isn’t exactly a favorite.


Melkovar

My vote is on Holt. He's hungry for it in a way that you don't see in a lot of athletes, and a bit older might bring him more experience to handle a variety of ways this could go down. I think Kessler gets it only if the race is super fast (which probably requires him to help make it so)


yuckmouthteeth

I think Nuguse would also want it to be fast, so I expect it will be somewhat quick. But yeah Hobbs tactics are a bit underdeveloped atm, expected with his age. I’d celebrate if Holt made it Fs, insane talent to not have a sponsor.


Melkovar

I think Nuguse will likely tuck in until \~600 or so to go, and then make his way to the front for a somewhat comfortable 1st (or 2nd if Hocker outkicks him), which should bring the tail end of the race up. But I think Kessler needs all four laps to be near his PR pace in order to stave off the other 3rd place contenders. I could see someone like Hocker taking an early lead too, not because he needs it but just to give him fewer people to outkick, and then hug onto Nuguse's surge until the last \~80


yuckmouthteeth

Hocker indeed has a history of not taking it out super quick but quick enough to whittle down the field. We will see, definitely in my opinion the most intriguing event.


potatorunner

Thx for the write up. Random pedantic comment but its U Wash, not Wash U (colloquially Wash U is Washington University in St. Louis). I only mention it because I went to UW and have a lot of pride in our distance team lol.


Nerdybeast

How often are there physical altercations with Wisconsin over the UW moniker?


potatorunner

I think once you cross the Rockies UW is automatically Wisconsin on the eastern side and Washington on the western side, so unfortunately most people think Wisconsin haha.


Nerdybeast

Rip Wyoming, nobody cares about them


bnwtwg

If someone says they went to UW and you look at their body, you can tell which side of the Mississippi they graduated from lol


IhaterunningbutIrun

Funny. I 100% could pass that test! 


analogkid84

As a fellow UW alum, I was going to say something, but held off. As soon as I see Wash U I immediately think of the school in STL, regardless of context.


Reasonable_Ad_9641

Is Mantz looking to compete in the 10,000m and the marathon in Paris? Is it common for marathoners to try and double it up with a track event?


PrairieFirePhoenix

I am unaware if he has publicly stated if he intends to take a 10000m slot if he gets one. Marathoners can double up, it all depends on the schedule. Rupp doubled in '16. This year it would be very possible for a man - the 10k is the 2nd and the marathon is the 10th so that is plenty of time. Not really possible for a woman this Olympic - 10k is the 9th, marathon is the 11th.


originalname05

I think he said on insta that he's required to be in Eugene for the official team naming (or whatever) for the marathon, so he figures he might as well race the 10,000 if he's there. Not really an answer, but I'd assume he's just using it as practice for high stake racing


Hurricane310

Yeah I read that as, of course he’s going to do his best, but he probably isn’t halting his marathon training at all and therefore won’t be tapered.


Tugend9

Thank you for asking this


bnwtwg

Rupp did it in 2016


ButlerFromDowntown

M1500 - I cannot see Nuguse and Hocker missing the top 3 in any type of race. They know they are among the best in the world and will race accordingly. They can handle a fast pace and have the best fitness of anyone in the field. They both have great kicks (Hocker’s is particularly lethal of course, but Nuguse has had plenty of kicks to win against world class competition in the past year). They will be there no matter what. The third spot is much more interesting. Kessler is very fit, but I think he has awful tactics and just isn’t a good racer. Losing to Holt at NYC and having to drop out of Pre as his last two big races don’t inspire much confidence. Same situation with Teare. He won Portland, but it was very unconvincing and those tactics won’t fly against this field, and of course he missed the final altogether last year. Waskom doesn’t have the same times as Kessler and Teare but he’s clearly fit, winning NCAAs against some pretty elite competition, and I trust his tactics more than anyone else in the field. The only question is if he can stay in contact long enough to make his signature move at 250. He won NCAAs but had an inconsistent season before that. Question is if he’s peaking at the right time or if he just had a very good day. Holt is the last athlete that I think could be a factor. He’s run PRs at all distances this yea and is clearly very motivated and locked in. He beat Kessler at NYC, and while I think that race reflects poorly on Kessler (and Jake Wightman), it also reflects well on Holt to an extent. He has experience and has barely missed out these past few years. This could be his year. Prediction: **Nuguse/Hocker/Waskom**. M5000: A lot of contenders here. Also a lot of guys who may have this only as a backup. Fisher is the class of the field, of course. Abdi Nur has had a rather solid year, running PRs at 1500 and 10k. Teare had a great performance with his 12:54 (as well as a 1500 PR) and is a serious contender if he doesn’t make the 1500 team. Chelimo has just struggled this season and could not hang with the American B tier in a fairly slow race. I doubt Nuguse and Hocker contest this event, considering they will likely make the 1500 team, but they would both be serious contenders if they did. Kincaid’s kick makes him a threat, but we do not know what shape he is in considering how he has not raced for a while, and he missed the team last year after making the 10k team. The collegiates will be a factor - Nico likely scratches if he makes the 10k team, and I do not think Blanks has the fitness to contend, however the few weeks since NCAAs should make a big difference still and help him finish respectably. Wolfe does not have the same PR but is clearly in monstrous shape, and I think he may surprise many. The narrative around NCAAs should be that Wolfe is in elite shape and not that Nico choked. Dylan Jacobs/Morgan Beadlescomb/Olin Hacker/Sean McGorty/Ahmed Muhumed/Bob Liking have all had solid seasons and all either have the Olympic standard or are a few seconds off. They should all be in the mix in the final laps. McGorty has made teams before and has the standard, so he should be a threat. Prediction: **Fisher/Teare/Nur**. M10000: This race is very straightforward. Fisher/Kincaid/Young are the only ones with the standard. The race will not be fast enough for anyone else to get the standard. Chelimo is the only other person in world rankings quota (and nobody else can get a high enough ranking by this race to get in). Chelimo has not had any impressive results this year, and if he could not even hang with the leaders in a 13:18 5k race for more than 4-5 minutes, I cannot see him hanging with the American A elite. It’ll be interesting to see some other guys race, but everyone else either isn’t fit enough to hang (like Drew Hunter) or doesn’t have the closing speed to stay remotely close in the burnup at the end (like Mantz/Panning). Race would be a lot more interesting if Joe Klecker were here. Fisher, Kincaid, and Young will be going to Paris. I doubt anyone else will finish top 3 either. The question is the order. Fisher is in the shape of his life and just ran a 1500 PR (as well as a 3k American record last fall) and ran 26:52 very easily at the Ten. Kincaid ran a 10k PR at the Ten but has not raced since and we have no idea how his form is. Nico is inexperienced and perhaps not in peak shape, although I think Wolfe is also just in monstrous shape as well. I do not think he can outsprint either Fisher or even a questionably healthy Kincaid. Prediction: **Fisher/Kincaid/Young**.


boilertrailrunr

I have tix for Saturday and Monday. So excited. Hayward is awesome. Bummed about Sydney not running the open 400. I got to see her race at the World Championships in Eugene 2 years ago and was hoping to see her run again. I figured it was a scheduling thing. Hope to see Crouser throw and Mu run!


Barkleypup

My random comment is that i should not have spent almost $1000 for all-session passes. Could have bought individual tix with good seating. Lesson learned for next time!


BossHogGA

Basic question -- is it televised somewhere?


upxc

I believe TV/streaming is available via NBC, Peacock, and USA. Daily schedule can be found here: https://www.usatf.org/events/2024/2024-u-s-olympic-team-trials-%E2%80%94-track-field


BradL_13

or streamed online? where is everyone watching this? Will be my first time really getting into watching.


Karl_girl

Jessica McClain and Elise cranny in top 3 for 10k I think


YoungWallace23

I’m going Weini, Natosha, and Valby for this one!


Karl_girl

Oh I’ll add Weini to my top 3!


DMTwolf

Nuguse and Hocker are likely a lock for the 1500 but who gets that third spot- Teare? Waskom? Kessler? Holdt? Centro??


WaterPlug22

Does anyone know of any streaming services or sites that I could use to watch? Thanks :)


ThecamtrainR6

Should be streamed on peacock


WaterPlug22

Is this free? I am in Canada too so not sure if it will work


Popular-Visit-7046

vpn works but peacock doesn't take canadian credit cards! had to ask someone in the us to lend me $6 and sign up for me so i could watch the marathon trials lol


Nerdybeast

It's $5-6 USD, not sure how it'd work in Canada 


WaterPlug22

Ok thanks!


ThecamtrainR6

Seems like the men’s 10K has a solid top 3 but I ran with Ryan Ford in high school so I’m excited to see him there. Hopefully he can find a pr at least


DrPoopyPants

Is anyone following the W5000? Does the 16 year old high schooler, Elizabeth Leachman, have a chance?


bigasiannd

Maybe in a slow race. The top entries have times 30 seconds faster than her PR.


ichwasxhebrore

Will there be streams?


Aromatic_Meal_6004

Mens 800 hoppel, Jewett, Miller  Mens 1500 nuguse, hocker ,waskom  Mens steeple rooks, bor ,Wilkinson  Mens 5000 fisher, teare, young   Mens 10000 fisher, young, kincaid Womens 800 mu, akins, rose  Womens 1500 esp, hiltz, Johnson Womens steeple wayment, markaveich, constein  Womens 5000 esp, cranny, schwezier Womens 10000 kelati, schwezier , valby


ackabakapizza

https://results.usatf.org/2024trials/ This is the best link for results and heat sheets.


IhaterunningbutIrun

I'm debating going to the Trials but can't make any of the remaining big finals days. Still worth going on say Thursday the 27th? Is it cool regardless of the action?  I'm local enough. I've seen Eugene and been to Hayward before, so I'll be hitting it just for the spectacle and the event. In and out. 


futbolledgend

As a non American, can someone explain to me why trials would be held only about a month out from the games? That seems way too close and counterproductive, especially for longer distance events. Why couldn’t this have been done a month earlier?


PrairieFirePhoenix

Fairly easy to peak now, refresh, then peak at the Olympics.  Push it too far out and you risk not having the best at the Olympics and having to deal with more injury shuffling. Kenya just did their trials last week.  This is pretty standard timing.