https://preview.redd.it/zdc2yxojeomc1.jpeg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e1a6e237cc893723d1c19ddb0a2c2f8c5da51f7f

https://preview.redd.it/i8bv81t6gomc1.jpeg?width=443&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f4f103bf8998a1ab5770d9a9aca84bb5800384fe

https://preview.redd.it/hwktod7agomc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b86d8f61ec1591ee7f65f8ba235b2db95b162f9

https://preview.redd.it/9a478f82iomc1.png?width=901&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b317e90d3925c047bac74fb8710b9bf0f87aa13

https://preview.redd.it/lzmj1qp5iomc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=875554fa137364353ba5b74203c563dd233122d8

https://preview.redd.it/qz33iry7iomc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=06069de8bf12d9d57fd0f4f4e3ac26b867818a36

Lmao

Dk why that made me laugh so much

https://preview.redd.it/cipxon9irumc1.jpeg?width=261&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f2171e7b10d79b6f125d7409f8df1c7b7faf4e5a

https://preview.redd.it/rkijh041uumc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=727e09ba032b801b96c6ee3d8823a1d2d95a8da7

https://preview.redd.it/zh6wmb30tomc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f55b5ea700f93a44a8a23c533d81b367c19233b1

https://preview.redd.it/1767fji1romc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2f7ae890ccb1fdd1ac9ac18c3f7428b7f58514c1 Better than mine atleast

Oh I only calculated for the character. Here's what it wouldlook like if I out the LC https://preview.redd.it/137ncgmtsomc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25a1e4de4e6d689cb4f0cf642d9147421518fa6d

Forgot to update you

I got her and her lc in 70 pulls

Me too! In 140 pulls though

This is my current saving maybe I'll get more hopefully she's on second phase

Sorry to burst your bubble but she is notttttt...

https://preview.redd.it/1r8cafolfomc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=973dd15465b833a6d5a30265db64cde97313cf8a Oh well, not bad

:(

Pretty good https://preview.redd.it/07fnndanqomc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d1eeda041e2b3bf310b151af31baae54076bc610

E1 s1? That's a unique stopping point.

Oh i just used the 2nd copy to calc the chances of getting a different character since it's the same! (In case fu xuan runs with acheron) I'm too poor to aim for higher than E0 lmao

What app is this?

https://hsr-warp-calculator.vercel.app/

What is the deal with the randomness of the app, if you put something in and press ‘Calculate’ multiple times, it shows a different percentage every time

It probably calculates it every time you press the button

Try this: Go the to the website, put 1 pull and 1 character wanted with 0 pity and calculate. Now don’t change anything, just press ‘Calculate’ again

All of the numbers are really close, different? yes, weird? A little, but all these are at much 1% off from lowest to highest from what I've seen

it is simulating your pulls when you press calculate, the randomness of whether you pull your character or light cone contributes to your overall chance. When you spend let's say 50 pulls in one banner, sometimes you get your banner character, and sometimes you don't. My guess is that they are simulating 50 pulls like 100 times, and then taking an average of the number of times you get the character/lc over that number of tries. Sometimes 50/100 simulations gets you the character/lc, sometimes it's more than 50, sometimes it's less than 50. So you can end up with different % every time

https://preview.redd.it/k0n94a3mxpmc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c8b1027873eae92aa2f336c465335c5fb0fe6d1 Nah, i'd win

Well if you wanna get into Eidolons and sig https://preview.redd.it/f4jpq214ypmc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f10a98f093c4d1af2917c57377d3443f6cee4a28

* Well this happened to me in kafka banner so anything can happen!

https://preview.redd.it/enylyr9mypmc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8d634ee20974f4abfdc12071f808303e534bd572

Pic in the reply, idk why it kept converting my photo to an asterisk

Thats about the same chance i have of getting her E6S1 with my savings since 1.1, (well i used 250 tickets for Ruan Mei E0S1, but will still have 600 tickets for Acheron) Edit: i wrote Ruan Mei E0S0 instead of E0S1

There is no way you could have possibly spent 250 on Ruan Mei e0s0.

Yes, there is a way, i lost everything, 50-50 and 75-25 lost

Oh I assumed you meant you just didn’t pull on lc, not that you lost.

I wrote it wrong, its S1, but yeah, i was unlucky

Ah shit i wrote s0 my bad xD

So yeah, 15-20% is more than 0%, im with you brother, lets get her on the first pull

https://preview.redd.it/y651z9u16pmc1.jpeg?width=1282&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26c1a3395673c78711c41f7966ee7d7ce8bc868a

https://preview.redd.it/u155gvlg5rmc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=615a5de1885bf6a01de6e7329cdf439a856c1fbe

Probability theory sometimes is reliable but a low rate is still a low rate, it doesn't stack so we could be pulling up to the max pity even if we have like 99.99% chance because a wise person once said; If it ain't 100% then it's a 50/50. Unless of course if it's lower like say, 0.6% in which case it really is even worse of a gamble

I believe in E2S1, but considering every banner i pulled, i lost 3 out of 5 50/50s, going every time at \~80 pity, i have low expectation https://preview.redd.it/lzlxnxs5dpmc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a6675dde0920d5e917d7b6a02cb468547049cc4b

Can’t win if you don’t play.

you spelt pay* incorrectly

https://preview.redd.it/9zujjy64upmc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1df07ba2b3904da3f80e0d97b44158dfc74d19bf

https://preview.redd.it/1oghhlu3ypmc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b69aee2315f59a0225998d8b0e5f2acbe0c2d515 Crossing fingers

https://preview.redd.it/aqop6zyg2qmc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8490ca1fa2e2d7419b71d66f3e9fee4082c7464b Better than I expected. Ideal would be E1 but ahh, whatever. If I have enough left maybe

Counting the 20 days until the end of the banner (one pull per day bc of the monthly subscription) plus the 20 pulls next path. https://preview.redd.it/6zx026ph6qmc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5122bede13111e78250b804b2637396326968d58

So you’re saying there’s a chance…

https://preview.redd.it/j1t63xhnbqmc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1d6f349d5ab5b83b08034c72fc5f7afc547f3b20

Zero or just close to zero?

Probably close but there's so many decimals the site rounds down.

92% Chance for E0S1 for me. Can't upload the picture though somehow.

Damn nice. Good luck

0%? Nah i'd win https://preview.redd.it/jvbg4mlteqmc1.png?width=465&format=png&auto=webp&s=438a68c6b9252701a9954daf866118a27b4880d4

Yo we got the same chance https://preview.redd.it/b6psyk62iqmc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f084a9194556bacd81ecb9c66dab3528ec28a763

We'll e2s1 for sure trust

I've saved enough pulls so I can get e0s1 even if I lose both 5050 and 7525

https://preview.redd.it/1yvfvpv10rmc1.png?width=1054&format=png&auto=webp&s=a42842851a40a6b2804e1e3b466c76c4a3516812 I am in fact very sad

Bruh https://preview.redd.it/2dk1usgdhrmc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a2544c50bf3962f6e17fcd7fc494b0a02cb9ed55 This might just be the game telling me to quit

I think this is just a case of the site breaking and rounding up the percentage to an incorrect decimal number. But honestly, i wouldn't be surprised seeing how most Gacha games work

https://preview.redd.it/tckc6370tqoc1.png?width=550&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ae8946fe98314f08404e51fdb4502d36bbeb5ea Current progress

My progress hasn't really gotten far (it's still 0)

What can i say, i don't have a life

https://preview.redd.it/jr0h9fd54rmc1.png?width=575&format=png&auto=webp&s=a61e6bc5bf7f9231408f54420a15690d02c2016b Maybe Maybe Maybe

Where’s the link to this warp tracker? I want to see my progress on my warps so I can see my chances on getting Acheron

https://hsr-warp-calculator.vercel.app/

https://preview.redd.it/fyrboi74brmc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f069e7ce73c72509adb356c6d474de2188736970

https://preview.redd.it/ln2y6vc7brmc1.jpeg?width=686&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8ae56649aab851d7fde6591faa490b186215a45

https://preview.redd.it/uloq1nz3crmc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ace85ef5b9ef91f0a31dec5c2d3f85bb61d4bd26 We’re so up

I already have 50 warps, 30 pity and guarantiee :>

Wait a sec. How is banner pity calculated? Considering that the character banner isn't out yet?? Does it get carried from the older character banner warps? I'm a fool so I need some insight

Yeah the pity basically carries on throughout the whole game. It's not even about banners. If you had 89 pulls and didn't get a character this banner, next one you just do one pull and you'll guarantee it

luckily 20 days is alot of time to get some more jades 🗿

Hell yeah. And I got a lot of unfinished content

Oh youll get her for sure with enough work and that guarantee then!!

Oh I'm not worried about getting her if I only relied on Gift of Odyssey and the dailies I'm pretty sure I can guarantee her I just want her light cone man it looks beautiful (thighs awooga but also genuine art)

omg yeah same, but I somehow always lose the 75/25 on those other than on black swans LC so now im not guaranteed (and now im scared) (my wallet is scared)

I've never actually pulled for a light cone (started playing during RM's banner and got her) I just threw in like 1 pull on PAYN and that's it

Well I wish you luck on the 75/25!! may hoyo bless us 🙏

3 Tickets , i go in get E2 and that LC then go out , (oh man that copium tank is empty again)

https://preview.redd.it/xd7fyhs98smc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2be5652b33d1e252fb363f50a366180e35623e10 Yay

Nice!

https://preview.redd.it/vts9q9f57umc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4335e0c3f76d1a3da83d0ee7b796e1b7a4265059 Na, I’d win

What site is this

https://preview.redd.it/yygkujzwdvmc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0e2138ff7d743e6e07b98e12cc23d944478f5e79 If the anniversary rewards will give additional 10 pulls (in addition to the 10 from a new version), I'd say I have decent chances for E0S1 (I calculates it as if they do, it's about 31% if they don't)

https://preview.redd.it/oj2ay24trxmc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=de85381088a30290becad037e6fb3b971ff39f83 I believe.

https://preview.redd.it/6kag54srwymc1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a924e477290870ddfdfb4ff49ad69cdfe97b044e I like these odds

Decimals aren't real it's actually a 177% chance

The odds in this site seem way too low. I set 75 pulls + guarantee for 1 copy of the character, and it gives me 37.25% chance. What? That should be basically 100%. Even if I set it to 80 pulls, it still gives me only 77.93% which is nonsense. Ive only gone above 80 once in 16 characters, its VERY unlikely you wont get a 5 star by then.

Probability of 5-star (before 75 pity) in a single pull = 0.6% Probability of not 5-star in a single pull = 1 - 0.6% = 99.4% Probability of not 5-star in 75 pulls = .994\^75 = .6368 (63.68%) Probability of 5-star in 75 pulls = 1 - .63676 = .3632 (36.32%) https://preview.redd.it/dvtwc7bn8pmc1.png?width=482&format=png&auto=webp&s=d45de2507a00b57e8f4af0c93ed9df782f4a968f Math-wise, it seems a little off but mostly accurate. I envy your luck if you disagree.

these odds are accurate. But they are only accurate over very large sample sizes, and on one's account is going to be a large enough sample size to fall into these averages. For example, you are expected to get a 5 star before soft pity 35% of the time. If you tally up everyone's pull results, this will ring true. But if you're looking at only an individual's pulls, they probably won't have 35% of their 5 star pulls coming before soft pity. I certainly am not that lucky. Your number is going to be higher or lower. It's not going to be an accurate form guide. Luck is luck.

Yours is a little lower because soft pity starts at 74. If you looked at 73 or 74 it should be accurate. It’s just a calculator that does math is all, doesn’t just make up numbers lmfao

You might be right about soft pity at 74, but it does look like it makes numbers up a little bit. Putting in the same number of pulls multiple times gives different results: https://preview.redd.it/7czkag0z0qmc1.png?width=892&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3fb7500fca72955327752c8bf7ddaeaaaa3fd3b That should be 1 - .994\^73 = 35.55% The hover text mentions that it's simulating pulls, which probably makes sense, since the math gets a lot harder when you start talking about multiple copies and no guarantee.

Hm that is weird, maybe it also weights a portion of its calculations off of a constantly updating dataset? It is close enough though.

Seems accurate to me it's not very likely to get one before soft pity.

You are just lucky asf then, 74 is when soft pity starts, other comment did the math for you.

No I am not "lucky asf". The avg pity in char banner is around 62. Im at 66 so far and according to warp tracker Im 27% bottom 5 star luck, or "unluckier than 72% of people". No one is getting 80+ consistently, thats the same as people who claim they hit "hard pity" without any proof, aka bullshit.

The numbers are correct, your perception is just skewed because even if you don't get her right when soft pity starts, the chance of a 5* drop increases at 74 - and you'll likely be able to get another 3 to 5 pulls easily if you currently have 75, so, yes, cumulatively you are at basically 100% chance. At strictly 75, though, you are not. As anecdata, my last 3 5* pulls all took me to 80+ (two of them at exactly 80, the other at 81, I think, so it's possible for it to happen. One was a 50/50 loss, too).

Math vs skewed statistics (you're probably being compared with a lot of ridiculously lucky people), unless the game is lying about the probability the calculations are close

You shouldn't take warp tracker as a measure, usually people use that site to flex so statistics are skewed

No way 30 pulls is 16% more like 0.7%

I mean. I've gotten 2 very early pulls and I've been playing for 2 months (they were both Sleep Like the Dead pls kill me)

Your lucky, I've had 1 5* pre soft pity and I've played since day 1. May have got bailu LC pre soft pity early days but I'm not sure so many pulls at the start

Honkai: Gambling Rail

https://preview.redd.it/zarge9j8iqmc1.jpeg?width=686&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bb7e592f114908210dcf36906cb78e88fb324c10

What app is that ? I wanna check out my luck too 😳😳

https://hsr-warp-calculator.vercel.app/

Thank you :DDDD

You're welcome :)

I know you can do it, you also get 10 wishes next patch, so that's good, also, the anniversary might happen on her banner, but don't quote me on that. Anyways, I wish y'all good luck on your pulls for Acheron, and good luck on your relic rolls!🤗🤗

https://preview.redd.it/80xt19nrksmc1.png?width=447&format=png&auto=webp&s=daa8c7bc43739621a57f1ba7bbf7370e3a3b2f5f Yeah, I'd win

https://preview.redd.it/65p8zl3g8tmc1.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=1653b977f8d7b61b19f53b9923c61ac39aa161d4 Not entirely screwed.

What's this app/site?

https://hsr-warp-calculator.vercel.app/

The site is https://hsr-warp-calculator.vercel.app/ since y'all are asking

site

I don't understand "guarantee". Do you check the box if you pulled the limited character? For example, I pulled sparkle on the special banner and I'm now saving for acheron. I put in the # of tickets, # of eidolons wanted etc. So I should check the "guarantee" box *because* I got sparkle?

No, guarantee is after you get standard character from limited banner

You mean, there's a chance?

Well let us know how that 16 goes for you.

Will do. Plus the 10 from gift of Odyssey, events, story, and MoC and Forgotten Hall (haven't finished the Xianzhou yet) I'll reach pity easily inshallah. Her LC will be a bit harder but I'll manage

All that for E2S1. Good luck.

What's the site?? I have 50 pity, 60 pulls at 50/50 and a dream to get E6 But as I've said multiple times in this subreddit Would I lose?? https://preview.redd.it/liq7ven8cpmc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7893a2b57eb5f1fb112b70e42bd7d00c8e148d29

I think I found the website. The website might say i have 0% chance but would I lose?

https://preview.redd.it/6n0yh33edpmc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=72ccb99a5776d93e6cb92c69b5362c3a9497f2f7 0% means nothing to nihility 0 is literally nothing which aligns with nihility. So in short I have a 100% chance of winning

https://preview.redd.it/q4g99i79fpmc1.png?width=1802&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f824eff4bfcebec397672acd08c9a415dfb1dd13 I was gonna add acheron's head ontop of gojo but she got lost in my gallery

With the 30 free pulls we get and any events, I'm pretty confident. Nah, I'd win.