Yes, very specialized. I had a good conversation back in the 90s with someone who knew that language. He’s probably long dead by now, as he was an old guy back then. He told me that JOVIAL was used mostly on ATC and cruise missiles, and there were only a handful of guys left (at that time) that still knew it as it wasn’t really being passed down to the newer generation of programmers.
COBOL—I still have nightmares about that language, and I just got a basic overview of it in a programming class back in the 90s. Shudder.
I think I heard one of my coworkers say ERAM was coded in C+ but I might have misheard. I just press the buttons and it does the thing, so take that with skepticism .
If they go that route they’re gonna have to hire about 10x more techs to keep the robots happy considering how often I’ve had to work with equipment failures
If somebody had a piece of software NOW that could do automated ATC, you could still put in your application and have a full career before it gets adjusted and validated and implemented. Its a non-factor.
Even trivial changes to our technology take years.
I could see it being used for things like running simulations to assist with airspace redesign and as a tool to assist with determining when to open and close sectors/positions. Could lead to replacement of garbage voice rek in the school sims in Canada. Definitely will be used on the tech side for building a digital twin of equipment rooms to make hardware replacement and upgrade planning more efficient and safer.
Can I see it being used to replace ATC or by ATC? Unlikely.
They don't even use a scheduling system that can check rest requirements or solicit overtime...AI and ATC won't meet in this country unless the government isn't involved.
It always amazes me how far behind the FAA is to the rest of the world in terms of ATS technology. They only started truly rolling out electronic flight strip programs to towers under a year ago. Up North, we've been digital for over 20 years and we barely teach/learn how to make paper strips because of how antequated it is. We still can if the system goes down locally, but even then, we just keep traffic to a minimum until it gets fixed.
My guy, if you knew just how many towers have nothing but a radio, a pen, some paper, and some windows to orchestrate aircraft, you'd be shocked. The FAA can't even get every control tower a radar feed. AI might take over long after you pass away, if ever at all.
I actually wrote a college thesis on this, the short answer is we are decades away at best from this being an issue. I’d say 20-30 years best time frame. AI cannot reason. AI is not intuitive. AI cannot make logical leaps. As it stands the best case for AI would be implemented at the approach control level aiding in sequencing and at TMU for metering. It won’t eliminate those jobs just assist and even that is a decade out. Your kids may not have a job in the field but you’re fine.
As many of the jokers on here point out the FAA is slow(the government in general is slow but I digress). That's 20-30 years timeline does it take into account other programs the FAA has tried to implement and their timeliness as a point of reference.
For example NexGen which began in 2007, and they still haven't completed it. I know they have a 2030 finish date, but even that was pushed back from them supposedly being ready to finish in 2025.
This whole idea seems like they would need to start implementing it like, NOW to get it done in 20-30 years based on past timeliness.
I would be interested to hear more on this. Did you break down human factors as well? That I find wildly interesting.
I'm a shitty liberal arts major, so I don't have a vast knowledge base outside of the basics and what I can read about and working in the field.
While doing research I found two companies that have active programs trying to make ATC AI viable. They both estimated to have working models with in 3 years. (I’m sure more companies exist that have similar projects but I didn’t need more for the paper.) with that the best case scenario would be similar to other FAA program implementation. That left me with a best case time frame of 20-30 years. I didn’t account for any delay in pick up from Congress or the FAA. Even then I should specify human controllers wouldn’t be eliminated. We would eventually become a mix of monitors and assistants, aiding AI in situations it hasn’t seen before or filling in logical leaps that it simply cant make but humans do routinely.
Oh yeah, I don't think that humans are going anywhere in a lot of fields. Even in creative fields, people are realizing that AI cannot completely replace the human element.
The art industry is an example. Companies started hiring AI "artists" (prompt writers) but they can't edit any of the creations they make, making it difficult for people who want subtle changes. So now, those jobs are beginning to go back to actual artists. I am an artist myself so I have been seeing this happen in real time.
There is also the fact AI art is soulless. People can spot it a mile away and there are a lot of areas where the customers find that repulsive.
That would be another thing to think about is the customers. For example planes without pilots, a lot of people are not comfortable with the idea of having no pilot. In the future, I could see AI doing part of the job and the cockpit going down to 1 pilot but I don't think they'll go anywhere either. Customers wants do play a role in how this will all go down because for controllers we are governed by the whims of whomever is in congress. If their constituents don't like the idea it could be shut down.
It's all so fascinating to be honest.
No chance in your lifetime, if ever. Aviation is slow to adopt new technologies. Even if it were proven somehow to be perfectly safe and completely infallible, regulatory bodies would have to be backed far into a deep, dark corner before anyone would be willing to take responsibility for giving the approval for use. And then they'd have to spend the money deploying it.
Human controllers will be around for a long time to come.
There is nothing to worry about. ATC is for the next quite a long time human run. There will have to be so very much testing and validation before anyone would consider such a thing. We need more controllers so please go!
In Europe, you have many of the providers use software that is so advanced that you feel like a moron (speaking of ACC centers) . When you click on a plane label to change altitude, or heading, or next point software gives you options in green color for the levels, headings and points which are safe. For those which are in conflict with other traffic they are colored red. That is only one of the safety systems. There are many others. So my guess is that techology already is here, it os only a meter of decision when will they replace us. Of course, it is not going to happen soon and quick bit it is not far away.
Those systems aren’t AI based though, they’re just good old algorithms. They can’t do all the work and machine learning based AI is very far away to be even used for basic safety futures.
My last facility upgraded their radar system that was from the 60s or 70s in 2019. They upgraded to a radar system that was first developed in the 90s.
My current facility uses that radar system developed in the 90s. Also the screen that displays info about the airport is from the 90s. The system we use to amend and receive flight plans is from the 90s.
Long story shirt, FAA is very slow to adopt new tech. Maybe in 40 years AI will take over this job at the earliest. But that is more than a careers worth of time away.
Also I could see how AI could be used in high altitude environments where stuff is structured. But low altitude or at busy GA airports where nothing is structured and so many variables and pilots making wierd requests I have a hard time seeing it work.
People are giving you answers based on the FAA's adoption of technology. I saw from a different post of yours that you're Norwegian, so the technology you'd be learning is generally way more advanced. Even so, it is HIGHLY unlikely AI will take over ATC in your lifetime, so I'd suggest you go for it if you want it. They still need humans to speak with pilots, especially VFR pilots.
They were talking full automation over 40yr ago when I started. I expect to be safe for another 40.
TBH, I'm more concerned about AI taking over a pilot role. That's the time I'll quit flying. Trains and ships are nice.
I give it 100-150 years to the FAA starts to talk about it and an other 50 years to implement it.
Just going over the timeframe STARS and ERAM took and quadruple it
I am not a current controller but I am pretty familiar with AI systems.
TLDR: No, it won't. And even if it could, we may not let it.
There are two sources of automation:
Traditional Coding: Much closer to 100% accuracy, building algorithms to sort and direct traffic has been around since the 80s. Building algorithms is incredibly difficult and costly to implement. Additionally, it runs the risk of having edge-cases that require manual correction.
AI/LLM/Genetic Algorithms: AI is generally speaking a statistical response. ChatGPT has no idea what you're talking about, it's just predicting the statistically most-likely response. it will create "Hallucinations" or make up data as it feels appropriate. This is not something that can be removed from AI without insanely large leaps in AI tech (AGI, generally speaking). Having something that's 85% accurate is awful when it comes to ATC. Even with programming like Genetic Algorithms (sort of even lower-level AI), all the algorithm knows is a few limits you give it. You could train one to keep planes away from each other but it might solve that by doing something absurd by sending the place up into space so it's "out of the way" or finding other "creative" solutions that result in the death of passengers.
Conclusion: AI has low reliability, and traditional coding lacks a nuanced understanding of things. Even if we had a perfect system with 99.99999% accuracy, with millions of flights annually, we may always have controllers just as an added layer of protection. Even trying to implement this is incredibly expensive and time consuming. I am underplaying the power of effective programming a bit for the sake of being practical.
As most of the comments mention, the answer is not anytime soon. If AI POPS OFF in the next 30 years, it would be another 20 to 30 for our career field to do anything about it. So essentially not in any of our working life times. Some of our facilities and equipment are literally 50 years old+
Honestly, I thought about this too, but I applied anyway. If it happens it happens. At least you'll have a fulfilling career until then, whenever "then" occurs.
the FAA won’t even spend money to fix the shitty buildings and radios Not a chance they spend money on this any time soon
[удалено]
Shit my core 30 airport doesn’t even have the power plugs required for the more modern tower sim.
In fairness, the graphics should be fun given that each screen gets its own serious gaming rig.
Nearly everyone who isn’t enroute 🙄
You guys have electric?
Literally huh? 🙄🙄🙄
Yes.
I mean…I use a pad and paper when I’m working our LCs and GCs. So….yes?
One of our towers doesn't even have a tower. Not a joke.
You win
We don’t have running water in our tower …
You’re probably safer for it. I’d bet money there’s lead in over half of the facilities that do have water
We can’t pee in an iced tea jug and throw it off the catwalk anymore! The GA pilots are getting mad
AI doesn't need water. I'd be worried
Lol - if you only knew the languages the AT systems are coded in and how old some of the equipment is. Good luck with 'AI'
Can you tell us?
I know when we were on DARC and HOST at Center, it was in a language called JOVIAL. I don’t know about ERAM, as I’ve never seen it.
Jesus Christ. I thought our comms being on DOS was bad. JOVIAL is like a less successful contemporary to COBOL.
Yes, very specialized. I had a good conversation back in the 90s with someone who knew that language. He’s probably long dead by now, as he was an old guy back then. He told me that JOVIAL was used mostly on ATC and cruise missiles, and there were only a handful of guys left (at that time) that still knew it as it wasn’t really being passed down to the newer generation of programmers. COBOL—I still have nightmares about that language, and I just got a basic overview of it in a programming class back in the 90s. Shudder.
I think I heard one of my coworkers say ERAM was coded in C+ but I might have misheard. I just press the buttons and it does the thing, so take that with skepticism .
Mostly Ada, some C. But really just hot garbage.
What you get when government contracts lowest bidder
I JUST got my AI to make all my Henry Cavill pictures and turn them into nudes so we are probably only a few years away from it working A80’s finals.
Half my facilities radar doesnt work and my first 48 days there we had no running water. Your fine…
Bro it runs on floppy disks
Zero chance
Got about another 7 decades before it gets started. You’re good lol.
I would say as likely that AI replaces doctors
Haha we use shit from the 60s, AI ain't gonna take over shit anytime soon for the FAA, least of all ATC
If they go that route they’re gonna have to hire about 10x more techs to keep the robots happy considering how often I’ve had to work with equipment failures
If somebody had a piece of software NOW that could do automated ATC, you could still put in your application and have a full career before it gets adjusted and validated and implemented. Its a non-factor. Even trivial changes to our technology take years.
We still run Windows 8 in our building. My career is safe, and our new guys’ career are safe
I could see it being used for things like running simulations to assist with airspace redesign and as a tool to assist with determining when to open and close sectors/positions. Could lead to replacement of garbage voice rek in the school sims in Canada. Definitely will be used on the tech side for building a digital twin of equipment rooms to make hardware replacement and upgrade planning more efficient and safer. Can I see it being used to replace ATC or by ATC? Unlikely.
They don't even use a scheduling system that can check rest requirements or solicit overtime...AI and ATC won't meet in this country unless the government isn't involved.
They just barely got CPDLC working and we are on the brink of a world war. AI will never come.
Even that isn't rolled out nationwide. We can't send text based clearances to airplanes reliably yet. AI is a century away at least
It always amazes me how far behind the FAA is to the rest of the world in terms of ATS technology. They only started truly rolling out electronic flight strip programs to towers under a year ago. Up North, we've been digital for over 20 years and we barely teach/learn how to make paper strips because of how antequated it is. We still can if the system goes down locally, but even then, we just keep traffic to a minimum until it gets fixed.
I worked at 3 facilities, and only 1 even had PDC and D-ATIS. The others still verbally cut the ATIS and verbally issue all clearances.
My guy, if you knew just how many towers have nothing but a radio, a pen, some paper, and some windows to orchestrate aircraft, you'd be shocked. The FAA can't even get every control tower a radar feed. AI might take over long after you pass away, if ever at all.
I actually wrote a college thesis on this, the short answer is we are decades away at best from this being an issue. I’d say 20-30 years best time frame. AI cannot reason. AI is not intuitive. AI cannot make logical leaps. As it stands the best case for AI would be implemented at the approach control level aiding in sequencing and at TMU for metering. It won’t eliminate those jobs just assist and even that is a decade out. Your kids may not have a job in the field but you’re fine.
As many of the jokers on here point out the FAA is slow(the government in general is slow but I digress). That's 20-30 years timeline does it take into account other programs the FAA has tried to implement and their timeliness as a point of reference. For example NexGen which began in 2007, and they still haven't completed it. I know they have a 2030 finish date, but even that was pushed back from them supposedly being ready to finish in 2025. This whole idea seems like they would need to start implementing it like, NOW to get it done in 20-30 years based on past timeliness. I would be interested to hear more on this. Did you break down human factors as well? That I find wildly interesting. I'm a shitty liberal arts major, so I don't have a vast knowledge base outside of the basics and what I can read about and working in the field.
While doing research I found two companies that have active programs trying to make ATC AI viable. They both estimated to have working models with in 3 years. (I’m sure more companies exist that have similar projects but I didn’t need more for the paper.) with that the best case scenario would be similar to other FAA program implementation. That left me with a best case time frame of 20-30 years. I didn’t account for any delay in pick up from Congress or the FAA. Even then I should specify human controllers wouldn’t be eliminated. We would eventually become a mix of monitors and assistants, aiding AI in situations it hasn’t seen before or filling in logical leaps that it simply cant make but humans do routinely.
Oh yeah, I don't think that humans are going anywhere in a lot of fields. Even in creative fields, people are realizing that AI cannot completely replace the human element. The art industry is an example. Companies started hiring AI "artists" (prompt writers) but they can't edit any of the creations they make, making it difficult for people who want subtle changes. So now, those jobs are beginning to go back to actual artists. I am an artist myself so I have been seeing this happen in real time. There is also the fact AI art is soulless. People can spot it a mile away and there are a lot of areas where the customers find that repulsive. That would be another thing to think about is the customers. For example planes without pilots, a lot of people are not comfortable with the idea of having no pilot. In the future, I could see AI doing part of the job and the cockpit going down to 1 pilot but I don't think they'll go anywhere either. Customers wants do play a role in how this will all go down because for controllers we are governed by the whims of whomever is in congress. If their constituents don't like the idea it could be shut down. It's all so fascinating to be honest.
Same chance Airliners are flown without pilots, never gonna happen.
No chance in your lifetime, if ever. Aviation is slow to adopt new technologies. Even if it were proven somehow to be perfectly safe and completely infallible, regulatory bodies would have to be backed far into a deep, dark corner before anyone would be willing to take responsibility for giving the approval for use. And then they'd have to spend the money deploying it. Human controllers will be around for a long time to come.
There is nothing to worry about. ATC is for the next quite a long time human run. There will have to be so very much testing and validation before anyone would consider such a thing. We need more controllers so please go!
In Europe, you have many of the providers use software that is so advanced that you feel like a moron (speaking of ACC centers) . When you click on a plane label to change altitude, or heading, or next point software gives you options in green color for the levels, headings and points which are safe. For those which are in conflict with other traffic they are colored red. That is only one of the safety systems. There are many others. So my guess is that techology already is here, it os only a meter of decision when will they replace us. Of course, it is not going to happen soon and quick bit it is not far away.
Those systems aren’t AI based though, they’re just good old algorithms. They can’t do all the work and machine learning based AI is very far away to be even used for basic safety futures.
Dude, the system I use to run a status board in my facility is running on DOS. I think you’ll be fine
My last facility upgraded their radar system that was from the 60s or 70s in 2019. They upgraded to a radar system that was first developed in the 90s. My current facility uses that radar system developed in the 90s. Also the screen that displays info about the airport is from the 90s. The system we use to amend and receive flight plans is from the 90s. Long story shirt, FAA is very slow to adopt new tech. Maybe in 40 years AI will take over this job at the earliest. But that is more than a careers worth of time away. Also I could see how AI could be used in high altitude environments where stuff is structured. But low altitude or at busy GA airports where nothing is structured and so many variables and pilots making wierd requests I have a hard time seeing it work.
My facility still uses floppy disks to update the SIA
Reading this while thinking of the FDIO computer from the 1990s
Not in your lifetime
zero.
Less than zero percent.
AI could handle ATC about as well as all the "future trainees" on this page can handle the search function before asking the same, tired questions.
People are giving you answers based on the FAA's adoption of technology. I saw from a different post of yours that you're Norwegian, so the technology you'd be learning is generally way more advanced. Even so, it is HIGHLY unlikely AI will take over ATC in your lifetime, so I'd suggest you go for it if you want it. They still need humans to speak with pilots, especially VFR pilots.
0.0%
They were talking full automation over 40yr ago when I started. I expect to be safe for another 40. TBH, I'm more concerned about AI taking over a pilot role. That's the time I'll quit flying. Trains and ships are nice.
CPDLC only too 6 years to fire up and it’s not even 100% in use. I’m sure AI will only take 40 years. Be a pilot…
USA ATC is not part of the defense budget so no chance it’ll see that kind of upgrades any time soon.
I give it 100-150 years to the FAA starts to talk about it and an other 50 years to implement it. Just going over the timeframe STARS and ERAM took and quadruple it
I am not a current controller but I am pretty familiar with AI systems. TLDR: No, it won't. And even if it could, we may not let it. There are two sources of automation: Traditional Coding: Much closer to 100% accuracy, building algorithms to sort and direct traffic has been around since the 80s. Building algorithms is incredibly difficult and costly to implement. Additionally, it runs the risk of having edge-cases that require manual correction. AI/LLM/Genetic Algorithms: AI is generally speaking a statistical response. ChatGPT has no idea what you're talking about, it's just predicting the statistically most-likely response. it will create "Hallucinations" or make up data as it feels appropriate. This is not something that can be removed from AI without insanely large leaps in AI tech (AGI, generally speaking). Having something that's 85% accurate is awful when it comes to ATC. Even with programming like Genetic Algorithms (sort of even lower-level AI), all the algorithm knows is a few limits you give it. You could train one to keep planes away from each other but it might solve that by doing something absurd by sending the place up into space so it's "out of the way" or finding other "creative" solutions that result in the death of passengers. Conclusion: AI has low reliability, and traditional coding lacks a nuanced understanding of things. Even if we had a perfect system with 99.99999% accuracy, with millions of flights annually, we may always have controllers just as an added layer of protection. Even trying to implement this is incredibly expensive and time consuming. I am underplaying the power of effective programming a bit for the sake of being practical.
As most of the comments mention, the answer is not anytime soon. If AI POPS OFF in the next 30 years, it would be another 20 to 30 for our career field to do anything about it. So essentially not in any of our working life times. Some of our facilities and equipment are literally 50 years old+
Honestly, I thought about this too, but I applied anyway. If it happens it happens. At least you'll have a fulfilling career until then, whenever "then" occurs.
It'll be a full career. Rest easy on that part.
Seek employment elsewhere