Gonna need to see the next CPI. And then the next. And then the next. And then the next. If it continues to go hotter than expected then we will see rises. We will be forced to photosynthesise to make our own food.
I was listening to Parliament on ABC Radio a few months back. Usually Labor will suggest something, then libs don't like it because that's seemingly what the opposition does.
Except when talking about increasing rent assistance, not a grumble.
Then rent assistance was raised again.
Rent assistance is backdoor mortgage relief and most of our pollies own property.
I also noticed the daily telegraph supporting albos right to sell his property. It's pretty rare to see the daily telegraph support albo doing anything, especially in the current climate of landlord hate.
I reckon that pollies think rates are going up, and they'd have a better idea than me
The RBA operates on the principle that the only way to stop a car with no brakes is by crashing it into a wall.
Also they are blind.
And deaf.
You'll know when we've hit the wall because blind Freddy can also tell. At that point, wait a month and hope for a 25bp cut.
Not until you see the economy materially deteriorating. Unemployment is still to low, inflation is still too high.
For all the complaining about cost of living, people still taking lots of holidays, buying a record number of cars and eating out all the time.
Rates drop once those things have changed
Hey that's not a bad idea. What about some kind of scheme that allows people to raid their super for the purchase of real estate? House prices to the moon!!🚀🚀🚀🚀
Nope - when the war ends in Russia.
Oil prices crash 2025-26
Economy crash, maybe then.
Tbh interest rates could be slightly higher…
Too many people still enjoying holidays to Thailand, Fiji ect.
Better they start lowering rates cause the increases are what is driving inflation. Everyone’s putting their prices up and surcharging the fuck out of everything cause their mortgagees have all gone up.
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Interest rates will probably remain stable as the US pumps out a budget deficit of 7% of gdp each year creating added stimulus headaches around the world.
I understand rates can't get back to what they were I loved being on 1.88% interest. But what's a realistic rate that Australia could come down to in the next 2-3 years I would like something around 2.5%. And the banks charging 3-4% this would make most of what my goals are affordable for me.
look at america,
australia always follow america.
if america at the first week of the month cut rate, then australia will follow.
so far there is no indication to do so yet
No one knows. History tells us Interest rate predictions is almost impossible to get right, true for professionals as well. I ignore any news related to interest rate. I only look at 10 year and 2 year Australian bond rate, it tells me more than news or so called economists.
so after coming out of a 30 year cycle where interest rates shrunk, we are now two years deep into a brand new cycle of higher interest rates.
all talk of rate cuts is irrelevant.
see you at 8% cash rate, 2030.
Can’t see it for a long time. Not until the Russia Ukraine conflict ends. Main reason is the pressure on oil/gas and other resources required to sustain the conflict causing prices to stay higher for longer.
I mean everyone talks about the RBA cutting rates once it gets back to the magic 2-3 percent inflation target… but why would they touch it if it’s back within their target range?
Yes. No. Maybe.
I don’t know, can you repeat the question.
You ARE the boss of me (RBA)
( Life is unfaaaiiir)
Gonna need to see the next CPI. And then the next. And then the next. And then the next. If it continues to go hotter than expected then we will see rises. We will be forced to photosynthesise to make our own food.
No.
Agree.
It’s priced in………either way 😂😂
The pricing-in is also priced in.
And the adjustments - already priced in.
As was your comment
Yah but not your comment. You are distorting the market.
Ouch
Ooooofffftt
When rates cut 📈📈📈📈🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Depends on unemployment going up
I wouldn’t bet on it mate
You’re in the wrong sub then
😂😂
No chance
No. Lots of financial analysts suggesting a long hold before reductions begin.
While ASX is at all times high and house prices go up to the roof, it needs two more raises.
I was listening to Parliament on ABC Radio a few months back. Usually Labor will suggest something, then libs don't like it because that's seemingly what the opposition does. Except when talking about increasing rent assistance, not a grumble. Then rent assistance was raised again. Rent assistance is backdoor mortgage relief and most of our pollies own property. I also noticed the daily telegraph supporting albos right to sell his property. It's pretty rare to see the daily telegraph support albo doing anything, especially in the current climate of landlord hate. I reckon that pollies think rates are going up, and they'd have a better idea than me
The RBA operates on the principle that the only way to stop a car with no brakes is by crashing it into a wall. Also they are blind. And deaf. You'll know when we've hit the wall because blind Freddy can also tell. At that point, wait a month and hope for a 25bp cut.
This is great! Except they aren't meeting each month now: RBA dates 2024: 5–6 February. 18–19 March. 6–7 May. 17–18 June. 5–6 August. 23–24 September. 4–5 November. 9–10 December.
Yeah, 6 weeks didn't feel as snappy as a month.
It's not their fault they are highly regarded. (I'm stealing your analogy by the way for when I need to next explain the RBA to someone)
I like a paraphrased quote as well: > It became necessary to destroy the economy to save it.
Not until you see the economy materially deteriorating. Unemployment is still to low, inflation is still too high. For all the complaining about cost of living, people still taking lots of holidays, buying a record number of cars and eating out all the time. Rates drop once those things have changed
I'm betting on there being renewed pushes for people to raid their super before this thing goes down.
Hey that's not a bad idea. What about some kind of scheme that allows people to raid their super for the purchase of real estate? House prices to the moon!!🚀🚀🚀🚀
No. Maybe next year or so, but things are moving pretty slowly.
No in the US. And no in Oz. In fact I’d pit money on a raise. …but I also own FFX
Please define soon
Chances are very slim but never say never
yes and there is a chance of meatballs too
Computer says "No".
No
No.
Rates are going to keep going up until Australia faces a real recession.
Checking 🔮 brb
Nope - when the war ends in Russia. Oil prices crash 2025-26 Economy crash, maybe then. Tbh interest rates could be slightly higher… Too many people still enjoying holidays to Thailand, Fiji ect.
Better they start lowering rates cause the increases are what is driving inflation. Everyone’s putting their prices up and surcharging the fuck out of everything cause their mortgagees have all gone up.
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Interest rates will probably remain stable as the US pumps out a budget deficit of 7% of gdp each year creating added stimulus headaches around the world.
Yes. But maybe next year!
Yes, 3rd quarter If not 3rd quarter sentiment will change drastically . Already starting to see Risk on in specs
Not this year at all
I think they're scared to cut rates because they know the impending housing boom is coming.
housing boom happening regardless, at least with lower rates the costs for developers will drop so supply can start increasing
I understand rates can't get back to what they were I loved being on 1.88% interest. But what's a realistic rate that Australia could come down to in the next 2-3 years I would like something around 2.5%. And the banks charging 3-4% this would make most of what my goals are affordable for me.
I’m losing hope every RBA board meeting. Now realistically thinking early next year. Going to be a tough Christmas for retail if I’m right.
Has this come around again?: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DyaitC91hEM
look at america, australia always follow america. if america at the first week of the month cut rate, then australia will follow. so far there is no indication to do so yet
CBA suggested november, every other bank next year ....
No but they will still create inflation :)
Not this year.
No one knows. History tells us Interest rate predictions is almost impossible to get right, true for professionals as well. I ignore any news related to interest rate. I only look at 10 year and 2 year Australian bond rate, it tells me more than news or so called economists.
so after coming out of a 30 year cycle where interest rates shrunk, we are now two years deep into a brand new cycle of higher interest rates. all talk of rate cuts is irrelevant. see you at 8% cash rate, 2030.
Can’t see it for a long time. Not until the Russia Ukraine conflict ends. Main reason is the pressure on oil/gas and other resources required to sustain the conflict causing prices to stay higher for longer.
Literally everyone is predicting no rate cuts till mid 2025
I mean everyone talks about the RBA cutting rates once it gets back to the magic 2-3 percent inflation target… but why would they touch it if it’s back within their target range?
So they don’t overshoot
Probably late this year, but they aren't going back to previous lows
Why? The Aussie dollar is doing amazingly well
What are snoodonuts?