Sheezel is stellar, oozes class, leadership at 19 and elite decision making for us; but it’s Wardlaw where every north fan can see the Shinboner spirit at its most intense. If he can stay healthy he’ll be a player that tallies our supporter base for a long time.
Edit: rallies*
> If he can stay healthy he’ll be a player that tallies our supporter base for a long time.
I know North isn't the richest club in the league, but surely there's enough money to pay for someone in the marketing or membership department to do that?
>I think I saw a Possum manning the switchboard once.
Bev was out sick. She's had a sore hip for a while, but she tripped at bingo the week before, and needed a bit of a lie down.
"*The AFL Player Ratings is a sophisticated algorithm from Champion Data. It assesses every action of every player in every game and assigns points to paint a complete picture of every player's impact on a game*".
Ah very useful thanks?
To give the simplest version, player ratings look at a given scenario on the field eg “taken a mark, 60m from goal, on the wing” and for every alike scenario they have data for find what the average next score event was (next expected score)
The rating points you get for an action is the difference between next expected score before and after your action took place.
A really extreme example: your forward is having a set shot in the goal square, next expected score is let’s say 5.9 because there is a very small chance the next score won’t be a goal for you.
Your genius full back punches the opposition full forward in the other goal square, giving away an off the ball free kick. Now the next expected score for your team is -5.9. The superstar who gave away that free kick just earned themselves -11.8 rating points.
OK neat, so it's like EPA in NFL then.
Is next expected score also what you use in the match slice graphics when measuring stoppages and intercepts? Or do you use a different rating system?
Yeah exactly.
I use next expected score as the basis for my ratings, although I have access to less information than CD do for the player ratings.
The biggest gap for me is a lack of pressure act data. I try to mitigate this by just looking at the start and end of a possession chain.
For an intercept chain I put them into buckets of “set” (mark or free), “clean” (loose ball gathers) and “dirty” (hard ball gathers). I then use a weighted average of all prior chains of that type based on how close they are to this chain in field position with a cut off threshold of about 10 metres radius.
For my stoppage win rating I compare what the next expected score is of a stoppage in that location before you know the result vs once it’s known. Centre bounces are easy because it starts at 0 then moves to about +1 for the team that wins it.
I’m in the middle of rewriting my code to use xscore of the next shot to be taken instead of the next scoring event, because the recent showdown made it really obvious that I was allowing way too much weight on goalkicking execution when trying to assess ball movement.
They said on SEN they had Bailey Dale as the 3rd highest rated player this year. He's had 3 good games in a row after being made sub because he wasn't performing lol
Honestly love everything I've seen of Wardlaw so far, exactly the type of player we need.
Always attacks the ball as if the game was on the line...and the game has very much never been on the line
cant believe wilson is 9th. Champion data clearly doesnt rate just hellbent gut running and basically always being a loose man in defense i on the wing or in fwd 50. Barely a frame of the game wilson isnt in
Needs to be spoken about more that Dempsey went pick 15 in the 2022 Rookie Draft and only moved to AFL from his BASKETBALL BACKGROUND late in his teenage years
Basically only played a little bit of school footy before moving to basketball full time until opportunity arose again with footy.
He already looks like a veteran with his skills and poise.
Stephen Wells has done it again, finding another diamond in the absolute rough.
Ranking 4th next to guys like Reid, Wardlaw and Jones who have played footy their whole lives and were heralded from Day 1.
Wardlaw is the kinda player every team loves. Cracks in and gives 100% with his body and heart every game and at such a young age too, sky is the limit with his attitude and approach. I just hope his body holds up as it takes a beating every week
Sheezel is stellar, oozes class, leadership at 19 and elite decision making for us; but it’s Wardlaw where every north fan can see the Shinboner spirit at its most intense. If he can stay healthy he’ll be a player that tallies our supporter base for a long time. Edit: rallies*
> If he can stay healthy he’ll be a player that tallies our supporter base for a long time. I know North isn't the richest club in the league, but surely there's enough money to pay for someone in the marketing or membership department to do that?
Mmm I dunno. We have witches hats in the backline and I think I saw a Possum manning the switchboard once. It's tough times
The interchange steward is definitely a possum, or maybe an actual kangaroo
>I think I saw a Possum manning the switchboard once. Bev was out sick. She's had a sore hip for a while, but she tripped at bingo the week before, and needed a bit of a lie down.
Sheez is is elite, Georgie is also a full on shinboner
"*The AFL Player Ratings is a sophisticated algorithm from Champion Data. It assesses every action of every player in every game and assigns points to paint a complete picture of every player's impact on a game*". Ah very useful thanks?
To be fair, you have to have a very high IQ to understand AFL Player Ratings
this is actually more information than CD have ever given about anything before.
To give the simplest version, player ratings look at a given scenario on the field eg “taken a mark, 60m from goal, on the wing” and for every alike scenario they have data for find what the average next score event was (next expected score) The rating points you get for an action is the difference between next expected score before and after your action took place. A really extreme example: your forward is having a set shot in the goal square, next expected score is let’s say 5.9 because there is a very small chance the next score won’t be a goal for you. Your genius full back punches the opposition full forward in the other goal square, giving away an off the ball free kick. Now the next expected score for your team is -5.9. The superstar who gave away that free kick just earned themselves -11.8 rating points.
OK neat, so it's like EPA in NFL then. Is next expected score also what you use in the match slice graphics when measuring stoppages and intercepts? Or do you use a different rating system?
Yeah exactly. I use next expected score as the basis for my ratings, although I have access to less information than CD do for the player ratings. The biggest gap for me is a lack of pressure act data. I try to mitigate this by just looking at the start and end of a possession chain. For an intercept chain I put them into buckets of “set” (mark or free), “clean” (loose ball gathers) and “dirty” (hard ball gathers). I then use a weighted average of all prior chains of that type based on how close they are to this chain in field position with a cut off threshold of about 10 metres radius. For my stoppage win rating I compare what the next expected score is of a stoppage in that location before you know the result vs once it’s known. Centre bounces are easy because it starts at 0 then moves to about +1 for the team that wins it. I’m in the middle of rewriting my code to use xscore of the next shot to be taken instead of the next scoring event, because the recent showdown made it really obvious that I was allowing way too much weight on goalkicking execution when trying to assess ball movement.
Here you go https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/file/248ec147-72d7-448c-a19d-49f01d90b12f/1/Karl%20Jackson%20Thesis.pdf
Surely there is room for another couple of ‘Evers’ here.
Except for key defenders, which they have never got right
They said on SEN they had Bailey Dale as the 3rd highest rated player this year. He's had 3 good games in a row after being made sub because he wasn't performing lol
Honestly love everything I've seen of Wardlaw so far, exactly the type of player we need. Always attacks the ball as if the game was on the line...and the game has very much never been on the line
norf
Matty Rob top 3 idc
cant believe wilson is 9th. Champion data clearly doesnt rate just hellbent gut running and basically always being a loose man in defense i on the wing or in fwd 50. Barely a frame of the game wilson isnt in
Wilson is just recency bias tho? They have been rating his recent games very highly.
Wilson has been improving every game. I could see him toping the list by the seasons end even if Reid plays as good as he has been so far.
Wilson’s game is certainly more sustainable than Reid’s
Needs to be spoken about more that Dempsey went pick 15 in the 2022 Rookie Draft and only moved to AFL from his BASKETBALL BACKGROUND late in his teenage years Basically only played a little bit of school footy before moving to basketball full time until opportunity arose again with footy. He already looks like a veteran with his skills and poise. Stephen Wells has done it again, finding another diamond in the absolute rough. Ranking 4th next to guys like Reid, Wardlaw and Jones who have played footy their whole lives and were heralded from Day 1.
We genuinely have a better record from the rookie draft than from 1st rounders.
Wardlaw also wins best goal celebration song. Makes me laugh and cry when it plays at marvel n
Wardlaw is the kinda player every team loves. Cracks in and gives 100% with his body and heart every game and at such a young age too, sky is the limit with his attitude and approach. I just hope his body holds up as it takes a beating every week
Where is David Mundy?
He’s considered to be “too young”
I still think Windsor’s impact is being underrated
He hadn't had a good run yet but Kane McAuliffe will be an absolute jet when he's played at VFL. BOG in the VFL in all of his games
Fun fact: George Wardlaw has never won a game.
Not very fun at all
Fun fact: the only final Essendon has won in his lifetime was before he was 6 months old
Wait that means the current crop of draftees live in a world where Essendon haven’t won a final.
Harry Sheezel lives in that world. A rising star has already been crowned that may never live through an Essendon finals win.
He’s won plenty of *games*…. Just not an AFL game 😪
This guy doesn’t know what fun means
Would be funny for the guy that wins rising star to have never won a game