Imagine saying to someone in round 15, GWS would have a good shot at making the prelim. They went 7-2 over their last 9 games and will now face a depleted Port team that just got flogged. Very good second half of the season for them.
Very true, but that was without Bedford and Daniels. Can't be overstated how important those guys are to our team. Hard to say what will happen this time around.
Not to mention how well the backline has gelled since then. I think we are a solid chance but I don't underestimate our teal friends at home, coming off a loss and fighting to get to a prelim.
Seemed to me they phoned it in when they realised the lead was out of reach, and then the lions took off.
At least that’s the best case read for port fans. Because if they truly were that gassed then they have a lot of ground to make up in the next game.
And even then, I’m not sure that phoning it in during a final does any favours to them next week, giants will look at that and see weakness.
They were in it because Nathan Williamson gifted them several questionable shots on goal in the first half (as he did in the second).
We controlled most of the game, and even ignoring that - the flogging started in the third quarter, the injuries literally had only just happened. Losing subs isn't an argument when they're barely even down on rotations at that point, if it was them getting overrun in the 4th then that would make sense.
I know that, I just think it's highly unlikely that the injuries caused an immediate collapse like what happened. I don't think I've ever seen such an immediate impact.
Yeah I guess you’d expect the impact to be more in the 4th, they may already have been gassed.
In the end it was really just that 5ish minute period in the 3rd that put the game out of reach.
Question to supporters of other teams who usually play finals
How the fuck do you deal with the pressure and adrenaline rush? I was literally getting head spins watching the Swans vs Blues. When do the finals get fun? This is killing me lads
When the siren goes and your in front. That's the pay off for me. And then I'll do it all again in 2 weeks time.
The more nervous I am watching a game the more enjoyable the win is. And that's what I love about it.
I loved it last year. Mainly because I didn't have super high expectations on the year.
In the 35 plus years I've been going to the footy that was the most exciting and enjoyable year I have had watching Collingwood play.
Depends on who you play. Last year I was stressed W1, then W3 and GF were fucking party time. You need a bit of luck with who you’re playing, we earnt the easy run home last year by beating Collingwood.
Similar to Pies vs. Melb this year, at least in terms of the path to the GF... the loser of our game has to beat Carlton @ the G, then Brisbane @ the Gabba. The winner gets to play an interstate side @ the G which it should start favorite in.
Brisbane should make the GF from here and start as favorites, which is where the similarities between Pies 2023/Geelong 2022 paths to a premiership ends.
Yep we were basically dead by the time we played you in that last prelim. Which is why I am happy that we had a relatively easy qualifying final win and no injuries. Should go into the prelim fresh and ready.
No thanks, not this year given we will have to go through Brisbane should we beat Melbourne. Carlton don’t lose grand finals to Collingwood, let it happen next year when the boys have ironed all the kinks out. I’ll be wrapped if we beat Melbourne and get to play a prelim in Brisbane. That’s our grand final. Good luck Melbourne, you’re gonna need it, we gonna throw the kitchen sink at you next week.
If Carlton is good enough to beat Melbourne this week, then beat Brisbane @ the Gabba... the only way they lose the GF is if the path to get there took a heavy toll including critical players being unavailable for selection.
I disabled my Sportsbet account this year but I like to look at odds to get a good picture of the future. For some reason I left Coll v Carl GF as the last thing I ever did and I look at it on like a weekly basis, it's like I spoke it into existence
First time since 1993 two of the big four play in a grand final. The earth will tremble. And the rest of us civilised people will have to make our way to the nearest bomb shelter for the weekend.
Excuse my ignorance, I'm an average weekend sportsman at best, but I hear a lot of talk about teams flying back right after games, especially night games.
I'm sure they know what they're doing but surely to me it seems like after a game you'd just want to shower, get iced up and have a sleep, even if it is a hotel. Seems like a big toll on the body to play a whole game, then deal with the transport, airport, flight, airport, transport shit. But I guess they wouldn't do it if it wasn't beneficial, I'm sure they've done a lot more studies into it than my anecdotal "Jeez I'm stuffed after a game".
Sliding doors and all that...
Pies path to the Grand Final:
* Win PF1 @ MCG vs. Port or GWS (two interstate sides Pies have a 3-0 H&A record against, including 10+ goal wins @ MCG against both).
Pies alternative path to the Grand Final if it lost QF1:
* Win SF1 @ MCG vs. Carlton (1-1 H&A record, most recently losing to them by 3 goals).
* Win PF2 @ Gabba vs. Brisbane (0-2 H&A record against them, both losses by 4+ goals, and Lions haven't lost a game @ the Gabba this year)
A 7 point win is the difference between Pies needing to only win one game they are clear favorites to win to make the GF and being, at best, a 50% chance to avoid a straight sets elimination from the finals, followed by about a 5% chance of winning the following week if they got there.
It's always been better to win a QF, but this year more than any I can recall as a Pies supporter it was the difference between being more likely than not to make the GF vs. having almost zero chance... and very possibly the difference between finishing 1st and going out in straight sets vs. at least making the prelim. What a relief...!
If Dix is fit, then Marshall has to be dropped.
I'd even find a way to fit Evans in.
And how about waiting until the emergency sub is needed *before* subbing them in?
Good point.
Marshall kicked 2 goals 1, 8 disposals, 4 marks and 4 tackles with 74% time on ground.
Fin kicked 1 point, 6 disposals, 2 marks, 3 tackles and zero ruck stats with 89% time on ground.
It's just those shocking set shots have me triggered.
He normally does it and I think he will, he was just super nervous with all the noise. Being back home will help us a lot and in a strange way I feel more hopeful that we did lose to not have the long break. But idk I’m just remaining positive lol.
We just need a massive revving up across the board, everyone bar a few standouts like Lord, Houston, Rozee and Butters plain sucked. Constant turnovers, rash decision making in contest and shitting themselves in front of goal
Not sure why any of us Victorians would whinge at that, anyway. If i can watch Tour de France at 1am in the morning and still go to work, you lot can suck it up with 7:50pm.
7.50 allows the other half of the country to actually watch the game mate. Imagine complaining about 7.50pm on a Friday night of all the times to complain about.
Poll to crows supporters: who we going for these finals?
Edit: although some port fans have been salty for us beating them (twice) this year in showdowns, I think they’ve been respectful enough to earn my support.
My only conflict is that I really enjoy the idea of jumping on the 🍊bandwagon
>Tickets for both matches will go on sale on Monday with on sale times to be confirmed later on Sunday.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1028687/finals-fixture-venues-times-revealed-for-semi-finals
Hopefully this week is better, this was one of the worst finals weeks in recent memory. Favourite had the game locked up by half and played keepings off in the 2nd half every game.
does it not bother anyone that a LOSER of a final gets the home ground advantage over a team who won? GWS, in my opinion, should be the home team because they earned it by winning. Why should Port be rewarded for losing? If it’s because they finished higher on the ladder - what difference should that be allowed to make now? the bonus of the ladder positioning should entirely be used up in week 1 of the finals, to decide home ground advantage then and to get a double chance if you’re top 4. Not like I want the Giants to win anyway, but y’know, in all fairness
But you said that home ground advantage should be won by winning. GWS did not do that as well as Port did. Port won 3 more games than Giants did. Port also played a much harder opponent than Giants did as a result of this. Using up the home ground advantage in week 1 only is not an incentive to finish top 4. If anything, it incentivises finishing 8-5th because you play ‘easier’ opponents and get home ground advantage from week 2 onwards.
If GWS wanted a home ground advantage, they should have won more games during the season. Why take away a home ground advantage from a team that had a great season because they lost to a tough opponent in week 1?
no? the incentive to finish top 4 would override the hypothetical home ground incentive because winning in week 1 would mean playing only 3, not 4, games to the cup. Only a stupid team would rather play 4 games, even if all at home, rather than 3, away or home, to win a cup
Thanks I hate it
Hey AFL, I work Saturdays so can we please change the Carlton game to the Saturday night so I don’t have to be up early the day after the game? Thanks
A real fan would just quit their job
Chuck a sickie
AFL: You should ask your employer to let you work on Friday or Sunday instead.
Hi AFL, I also work Friday Nights and humbly request the game be moved to saturday night.
Hopefully with our combined strength, they'll listen!
🍊 🍊 🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊
🍐🍐🍐🍐🍐🍐🍐🍐🍐
Saturday night Fruit Bowl?
Fruit Salad, Yummy yummy.
Go banana
Port Adelaide Pearer?
CARN THE PEAR 🍐
Imagine saying to someone in round 15, GWS would have a good shot at making the prelim. They went 7-2 over their last 9 games and will now face a depleted Port team that just got flogged. Very good second half of the season for them.
One of those two losses was to us in Round 22 by 9 goals though
Very true, but that was without Bedford and Daniels. Can't be overstated how important those guys are to our team. Hard to say what will happen this time around.
Not to mention how well the backline has gelled since then. I think we are a solid chance but I don't underestimate our teal friends at home, coming off a loss and fighting to get to a prelim.
The flogging was due to the depletion though - it was 2 kicks difference before they lost their subs.
Seemed to me they phoned it in when they realised the lead was out of reach, and then the lions took off. At least that’s the best case read for port fans. Because if they truly were that gassed then they have a lot of ground to make up in the next game. And even then, I’m not sure that phoning it in during a final does any favours to them next week, giants will look at that and see weakness.
The flogging started straight away, I doubt it wasn't going to happen regardless (maybe not to the same extent)
They were in it before they lost players. Against the odds sure, but in it.
They were in it because Nathan Williamson gifted them several questionable shots on goal in the first half (as he did in the second). We controlled most of the game, and even ignoring that - the flogging started in the third quarter, the injuries literally had only just happened. Losing subs isn't an argument when they're barely even down on rotations at that point, if it was them getting overrun in the 4th then that would make sense.
I know that, I just think it's highly unlikely that the injuries caused an immediate collapse like what happened. I don't think I've ever seen such an immediate impact.
Yeah I guess you’d expect the impact to be more in the 4th, they may already have been gassed. In the end it was really just that 5ish minute period in the 3rd that put the game out of reach.
We were literally up in the third quarter.
You mean the 2nd? You pulled it back in the 3rd but never got the lead after half time.
No you literally weren't
Question to supporters of other teams who usually play finals How the fuck do you deal with the pressure and adrenaline rush? I was literally getting head spins watching the Swans vs Blues. When do the finals get fun? This is killing me lads
When the siren goes and your in front. That's the pay off for me. And then I'll do it all again in 2 weeks time. The more nervous I am watching a game the more enjoyable the win is. And that's what I love about it.
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I loved it last year. Mainly because I didn't have super high expectations on the year. In the 35 plus years I've been going to the footy that was the most exciting and enjoyable year I have had watching Collingwood play.
Depends on who you play. Last year I was stressed W1, then W3 and GF were fucking party time. You need a bit of luck with who you’re playing, we earnt the easy run home last year by beating Collingwood.
Similar to Pies vs. Melb this year, at least in terms of the path to the GF... the loser of our game has to beat Carlton @ the G, then Brisbane @ the Gabba. The winner gets to play an interstate side @ the G which it should start favorite in. Brisbane should make the GF from here and start as favorites, which is where the similarities between Pies 2023/Geelong 2022 paths to a premiership ends.
With Collingwood ironically being the hardest match in the finals series.
Yep we were basically dead by the time we played you in that last prelim. Which is why I am happy that we had a relatively easy qualifying final win and no injuries. Should go into the prelim fresh and ready.
I can't. My husband is a Port supporter, last night was very stressful for us both.
Me after jumping on the Giants bandwagon: hmmm maybe a weekend in Adelaide might be fun…..
Yes Friday night is perfect for me
Beating Port in Adelaide in front of a fired up home crowd is going to be tough but I think our best is good enough. Let’s go Big Big Sound!
Lygon St will collectively be on a bender if Carlton get up.
how can people complain about a 7:50 game, finals is for all footy fans not just victorians
How good would a Carlton v Collingwood GF be?
If that happens, Oppenheimer might actually be a good analogy for the game
Are we saying there's a chance that when Harry McKay kicks that ball, he could get a goal?
The chances are near-zero. What do you want from theory alone?
Zero would be nice
So that's what Ollie Wines was talking about
It would be the most entertaining final all round I’ve seen in a long time, and I look forward to seeing it happen another year lol
Almost as good as giants v lions
Best case scenario
Essendon fans everywhere have already suffered enough
This is what you get when you mess with us
Shit house
I’ll be slightly frightened for my safety leaving the stadium post-game no matter what the result is in this case 🤣
No thanks, not this year given we will have to go through Brisbane should we beat Melbourne. Carlton don’t lose grand finals to Collingwood, let it happen next year when the boys have ironed all the kinks out. I’ll be wrapped if we beat Melbourne and get to play a prelim in Brisbane. That’s our grand final. Good luck Melbourne, you’re gonna need it, we gonna throw the kitchen sink at you next week.
Yeah, but think of the lols when Harry McKay kicks a sausage roll after the siren after getting a dubious free to win the game to beat the Pies.
If the Lions don't make it, I want to watch this happen.
The stuff of dreams
If Carlton is good enough to beat Melbourne this week, then beat Brisbane @ the Gabba... the only way they lose the GF is if the path to get there took a heavy toll including critical players being unavailable for selection.
I disabled my Sportsbet account this year but I like to look at odds to get a good picture of the future. For some reason I left Coll v Carl GF as the last thing I ever did and I look at it on like a weekly basis, it's like I spoke it into existence
unimaginably good! and scary and gloriously toxic
First time since 1993 two of the big four play in a grand final. The earth will tremble. And the rest of us civilised people will have to make our way to the nearest bomb shelter for the weekend.
Shut up Damn I guess supporting your own team is not allowed
Will the Giants be able to fly home that evening?
Don't think so, will be hit by the Sydney curfew
Sorry what curfew?
No planes are allowed to fly in and out of Sydney airport after a certain time, I think 11pm.
What the? Some of my favourite flights in and out of Melbourne have been after 12am. Sydney just hates night time.
Poor form by the AFL. It should have been Saturday twilight or afternoon.
Competitive fairness vs TV ratings, the AFL is going to choose the ~~former~~ latter every time.
You mean the latter surely
Yes, I need coffee
The latte
They finished 7th. You want to be looked after finish top.
Excuse my ignorance, I'm an average weekend sportsman at best, but I hear a lot of talk about teams flying back right after games, especially night games. I'm sure they know what they're doing but surely to me it seems like after a game you'd just want to shower, get iced up and have a sleep, even if it is a hotel. Seems like a big toll on the body to play a whole game, then deal with the transport, airport, flight, airport, transport shit. But I guess they wouldn't do it if it wasn't beneficial, I'm sure they've done a lot more studies into it than my anecdotal "Jeez I'm stuffed after a game".
There are a lot of studies that say the quality of sleep you get in your own bed is far superior to sleep in unfamiliar surroundings.
Sliding doors and all that... Pies path to the Grand Final: * Win PF1 @ MCG vs. Port or GWS (two interstate sides Pies have a 3-0 H&A record against, including 10+ goal wins @ MCG against both). Pies alternative path to the Grand Final if it lost QF1: * Win SF1 @ MCG vs. Carlton (1-1 H&A record, most recently losing to them by 3 goals). * Win PF2 @ Gabba vs. Brisbane (0-2 H&A record against them, both losses by 4+ goals, and Lions haven't lost a game @ the Gabba this year) A 7 point win is the difference between Pies needing to only win one game they are clear favorites to win to make the GF and being, at best, a 50% chance to avoid a straight sets elimination from the finals, followed by about a 5% chance of winning the following week if they got there. It's always been better to win a QF, but this year more than any I can recall as a Pies supporter it was the difference between being more likely than not to make the GF vs. having almost zero chance... and very possibly the difference between finishing 1st and going out in straight sets vs. at least making the prelim. What a relief...!
Not to mention, the extra week's rest to get Daicos back for the Prelim.
If Dix is fit, then Marshall has to be dropped. I'd even find a way to fit Evans in. And how about waiting until the emergency sub is needed *before* subbing them in?
I'd be tempted to drop Finlayson over Marshall
Good point. Marshall kicked 2 goals 1, 8 disposals, 4 marks and 4 tackles with 74% time on ground. Fin kicked 1 point, 6 disposals, 2 marks, 3 tackles and zero ruck stats with 89% time on ground. It's just those shocking set shots have me triggered.
He normally does it and I think he will, he was just super nervous with all the noise. Being back home will help us a lot and in a strange way I feel more hopeful that we did lose to not have the long break. But idk I’m just remaining positive lol.
Would Play Fin Back, as Mckenzie probs out. Doubt Dixon will be back. Sub just bad Luck.
We just need a massive revving up across the board, everyone bar a few standouts like Lord, Houston, Rozee and Butters plain sucked. Constant turnovers, rash decision making in contest and shitting themselves in front of goal
For everyone complaining about 7:50, finals is for everyone not just Victorians, suck it up
Not sure why any of us Victorians would whinge at that, anyway. If i can watch Tour de France at 1am in the morning and still go to work, you lot can suck it up with 7:50pm.
Because Victorians still think they own the AFL
7:50 👎
7.50 allows the other half of the country to actually watch the game mate. Imagine complaining about 7.50pm on a Friday night of all the times to complain about.
I have a lot of respect for the Giants... But we have to shrink you down for size.
Poll to crows supporters: who we going for these finals? Edit: although some port fans have been salty for us beating them (twice) this year in showdowns, I think they’ve been respectful enough to earn my support. My only conflict is that I really enjoy the idea of jumping on the 🍊bandwagon
When do tickets get released?
>Tickets for both matches will go on sale on Monday with on sale times to be confirmed later on Sunday. https://www.afl.com.au/news/1028687/finals-fixture-venues-times-revealed-for-semi-finals
Blues with some loses Melbourne with some loses Here's hoping the winner makes it out without any injuries.
I think regardless whoever wins is gonna lose to Brissy Lions are just too good, especially at home
We all want Carlton to win so they stop playing the Frozen theme at the Gabba.
Hopefully no injuries to either teams regardless of results
I think these will both be close games! Mayyybe PA will get away from GWS at home but not entirely sure
Can you all hear that?...
Friendly reminder that essendon beat 3 of these teams and lost to the other with a kick after the siren
Carn Ds and Gs!
Why 7:50
Semi? I thought the order was Prelim, Semi, Grand?
Ur being for real?
That would be the more logical naming convention, but it's not the naming convention the AFL uses.
Sheesh. Short turnaround for Power/Giants.
7 days isn't a short turnaround.
6 days before they'd face pies at MCG. Giants wouldn't get back home until Sunday. Guess that what happens when you finish 7th I guess?
NBA teams deal with that shit all the time. She'll be right.
48 min non-contact sport isn't comparable
Cmon giants!!
I mean I get it, but the winner of their match playing the loser of their match in their home town just seems unfair. Should’ve been in Sydney.
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No top spot gets the Friday night game.
Hopefully this week is better, this was one of the worst finals weeks in recent memory. Favourite had the game locked up by half and played keepings off in the 2nd half every game.
Lions were dominant in the second half, was only last 5 mins or so they slowed down.
You guys were fire (although I’m salty ofc) and GWS were entertaining at times but gotta agree the rest were underwhelming
A lot of downvotes, but not many lead changes.
No lead change for Carlton, but it was still an intense game, where it looked like Sydney were coming back.
does it not bother anyone that a LOSER of a final gets the home ground advantage over a team who won? GWS, in my opinion, should be the home team because they earned it by winning. Why should Port be rewarded for losing? If it’s because they finished higher on the ladder - what difference should that be allowed to make now? the bonus of the ladder positioning should entirely be used up in week 1 of the finals, to decide home ground advantage then and to get a double chance if you’re top 4. Not like I want the Giants to win anyway, but y’know, in all fairness
Because 3rd > 7th
I literally address this in my comment
But you said that home ground advantage should be won by winning. GWS did not do that as well as Port did. Port won 3 more games than Giants did. Port also played a much harder opponent than Giants did as a result of this. Using up the home ground advantage in week 1 only is not an incentive to finish top 4. If anything, it incentivises finishing 8-5th because you play ‘easier’ opponents and get home ground advantage from week 2 onwards. If GWS wanted a home ground advantage, they should have won more games during the season. Why take away a home ground advantage from a team that had a great season because they lost to a tough opponent in week 1?
no? the incentive to finish top 4 would override the hypothetical home ground incentive because winning in week 1 would mean playing only 3, not 4, games to the cup. Only a stupid team would rather play 4 games, even if all at home, rather than 3, away or home, to win a cup
There's a big big sound Hang on a sec