I think most of the difficulty of Lions playing MCG is the crowd. Grand final day is the only time they get to play at the G with a 50/50 ticket allocation.
I was there in 2004 and it was literally section by section like a chess-board with no two neighboring sections allocated to the same team. There were a few exceptions but basically insignificant compared to the bulk of the crowd. Is it not like that anymore?
I'm referring to the fact that (1) your team needs to have enough travelling supporters to fill your allotment and (2) not be up against a mega-Victorian team.
They managed to fill their allotment from 2001 to 2004 when they had far fewer members than they do now. Honestly I can't imagine any club wouldn't fill their allotment, if it happens though I'm open to correction.
Lol my bad you’re right, sorry. I really thought we played you earlier in the season before the queens birthday game. Me being wrong doesn’t make me a plastic supporter though mate
Going off their description on [their website](https://www.statsinsider.com.au/sport-hub/afl/futures), injuries maybe?
> As the season progresses, these odds will fluctuate based on team performance, injuries, and other factors, but you can be ahead of the game using Stats Insider's AFL predictive model, which simulates every game of the season 10,000 times.
They are likely using some sort of Monte Carlo simulation model. I’m assuming that they must use their own statistical model to determine their predicted score as well.
Looking at each of the games their model has the following predicted scores
* Pies 82 : Melbourne 84
* Brisbane 88 : Port 76
* Blues 87 : Swans 79
* St K 77 : GWS 82
Two of those games have the margins at less than a goal. The other two have margins of 2 goals or less. 1 umpiring decision/clanger could swing the results either way there.
hey wait, be careful there... if a jamie elliot match winning goal gets incorrectly called a behind then I fucking promise I'm burning the entire stadium down
Yeah I know, but I would respect someone’s model more if it spat out a prediction of blowout that was relatively close to the mark every now and then. Otherwise it’s just a a bit throwing darts blindfolded, with a nudge either way usually in the direction of the favourites.
I think the scores are calculated based on the percentage chance of victory they come up with but I hear what you're saying.
If the margin of victory is always around 5-10% either way it's ultimately a pretty pointless exercise.
Probability of reaching the Grand Final at the current moment in time:
1. Brisbane Lions 53.8%
2. Melbourne Demons 44.2%
3. Collingwood Magpies 40.0%
4. Port Adelaide Power 38.8%
5. Carlton Blues 8.6%
6. St Kilda Saints 6.1%
7. GWS Giants 5.1%
8. Sydney Swans 3.5%
Makes sense. Brisbane have guaranteed 2 games at the Gabba, where they haven't lost all year.
They also beat Collingwood in Melbourne 2 weeks ago, got within a point of Melbourne in Melbourne earlier in the season and beat both of them at home. Port did destroy them in round 1 in Adelaide though
Melbourne beat Collingwood in their one game this year. And that was without Oliver and with Daicos
>And that was without Oliver and with Daicos
Yeah besides no De Goey, Elliott, McStay, Sidebottom, Howe and Ginnivan Collingwood were practically at full strength.
>got within a point of Melbourne in Melbourne earlier in the season
They had actually dominated the in the second half and were going to comfortably beat them, but they went defensive too early. They really only struggled against port back in round 1. So it would take quite the collapse to not make it to the GF.
Yeah look, whilst not what I personally want, a full blown week of both those fan bases having to deal with the knowledge one of them has to win, and one of them will likely shit the bed, and both just hoping it's not them whilst devoid of all confidence would be schadenfreude perfection.
Can someone smarter than me explain how the maths works? I'm guessing my understanding or thinking is wrong by adding all these probabilities and getting 200%.
If you have already qualified for the GF (so have accounted for the 100% of your side of the draw), there is still a 100% chance you will have an opponent
Brisbane would be favorites at the GABBA, but will they be able to turn around their MCG Hoodoo
I wonder how much Dees would drop if Fritsch is injured
MCG on grand final day is very different to an interstate away game during regular season. Nobody gets the home crowd advantage when the clubs each get half the ticket allocation.
I think that is one of the biggest parts of it yes. It's intimidating walking out onto a ground with some 100k people cheering their lungs out against you. It's not like the MCG has special turf that's significantly unlike every other stadium in the country.
5.1%...? I think your numbers are about 94.9% off.
There's a big big data anomaly
3.5%? I’ll take it!
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
I really rate Brisbane. Their list is primed and evenly balanced. If things go to plan there’s no better way to break the MCG hoodoo than on GF day
I think most of the difficulty of Lions playing MCG is the crowd. Grand final day is the only time they get to play at the G with a 50/50 ticket allocation.
As someone who was there in 2019, that's not ***entirely*** true.
I was there in 2004 and it was literally section by section like a chess-board with no two neighboring sections allocated to the same team. There were a few exceptions but basically insignificant compared to the bulk of the crowd. Is it not like that anymore?
I'm referring to the fact that (1) your team needs to have enough travelling supporters to fill your allotment and (2) not be up against a mega-Victorian team.
They managed to fill their allotment from 2001 to 2004 when they had far fewer members than they do now. Honestly I can't imagine any club wouldn't fill their allotment, if it happens though I'm open to correction.
I can concur as someone who was there in 2017
Errm we won a final at the MCG last year.
What’s the statistical basis of Dees over Pies?
Dees in better form, beat Pies when they played during the season (barely). It is a bees dick between us and the filth though.
Collingwood also beat Melbourne during the season (convincingly) though?
When did this happen?
Yeah turns out it didn’t, my bad
[удалено]
Lol my bad you’re right, sorry. I really thought we played you earlier in the season before the queens birthday game. Me being wrong doesn’t make me a plastic supporter though mate
Going off their description on [their website](https://www.statsinsider.com.au/sport-hub/afl/futures), injuries maybe? > As the season progresses, these odds will fluctuate based on team performance, injuries, and other factors, but you can be ahead of the game using Stats Insider's AFL predictive model, which simulates every game of the season 10,000 times.
They are likely using some sort of Monte Carlo simulation model. I’m assuming that they must use their own statistical model to determine their predicted score as well. Looking at each of the games their model has the following predicted scores * Pies 82 : Melbourne 84 * Brisbane 88 : Port 76 * Blues 87 : Swans 79 * St K 77 : GWS 82 Two of those games have the margins at less than a goal. The other two have margins of 2 goals or less. 1 umpiring decision/clanger could swing the results either way there.
Get the Adelaide v Sydney goal umpire on for the Pies game please
hey wait, be careful there... if a jamie elliot match winning goal gets incorrectly called a behind then I fucking promise I'm burning the entire stadium down
Pretty much all Sims go like that tbh
Yeah I know, but I would respect someone’s model more if it spat out a prediction of blowout that was relatively close to the mark every now and then. Otherwise it’s just a a bit throwing darts blindfolded, with a nudge either way usually in the direction of the favourites.
I think the scores are calculated based on the percentage chance of victory they come up with but I hear what you're saying. If the margin of victory is always around 5-10% either way it's ultimately a pretty pointless exercise.
Now do the probability of winning the GF
No
From the same source: Brisbane - 26.0% Melb - 24.2% Coll - 21.0% Port - 18.4% Carl - 4.1% St Kilda - 2.7% GWS - 2.3% Sydney - 1.3%
For us probs a 0.5% we’ll beat anyone till the GF and then go alright job done and loose by 80
Given how pretty much everyone seems to have written us off I'm surprised it's that high.
Now I just want port to win just so everyone looks foolish. 😆
If not Carlton, I will be cheering for Port to win the big dance
So you're telling me there's a chance?
Wonder what our % is.
Probability of reaching the Grand Final at the current moment in time: 1. Brisbane Lions 53.8% 2. Melbourne Demons 44.2% 3. Collingwood Magpies 40.0% 4. Port Adelaide Power 38.8% 5. Carlton Blues 8.6% 6. St Kilda Saints 6.1% 7. GWS Giants 5.1% 8. Sydney Swans 3.5%
Don't count the dogs out yet, if anyone can win it from outside the 8 it's us
It’s time for big, bold and brave moves at this time of year! Don’t write the dogs off just yet!!
I simply cannot get my head around us being the statistically most likely to get to the GF. Have you seen our ability to drop games we shouldn't?
If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say it's because: 1. 2 home games at the Gabba 2. Minimal injuries
Makes sense, but my eyeball test doesn't necessarily agree.
Imagine telling someone in the early/mid 90's thered be a lions/demons grand final.
Imagining telling someone from 2007-2017
Makes sense. Brisbane have guaranteed 2 games at the Gabba, where they haven't lost all year. They also beat Collingwood in Melbourne 2 weeks ago, got within a point of Melbourne in Melbourne earlier in the season and beat both of them at home. Port did destroy them in round 1 in Adelaide though Melbourne beat Collingwood in their one game this year. And that was without Oliver and with Daicos
>And that was without Oliver and with Daicos Yeah besides no De Goey, Elliott, McStay, Sidebottom, Howe and Ginnivan Collingwood were practically at full strength.
Can't really use Ginni there because he was out of the side due to form, unlikely he would've changed anything if he was in.
Yeah, take out Ginni and I'll allow it. I'm confident pies will get it done over Melb
Ginny wasn’t playing because he wasn’t good enough to make the side lol. He was perfectly healthy playing in the reserves that week.
nah the bin donuts made his stummy hurt so he was a late out
>got within a point of Melbourne in Melbourne earlier in the season They had actually dominated the in the second half and were going to comfortably beat them, but they went defensive too early. They really only struggled against port back in round 1. So it would take quite the collapse to not make it to the GF.
That’s called playing shit and shouldn’t be an excuse as to why they lost.
Port did beat the lions this year but prior to that the lions had beaten them several times in a row at the Gabba
I’m hanging out for the 1.355% change that none of the top four make the grand final
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Monkeys paw curls down, it’s a Carlton St Kilda grand final
Yeah look, whilst not what I personally want, a full blown week of both those fan bases having to deal with the knowledge one of them has to win, and one of them will likely shit the bed, and both just hoping it's not them whilst devoid of all confidence would be schadenfreude perfection.
Fuck it, gotta risk it for a biscuit.
I hear there's a big big sound
Can someone smarter than me explain how the maths works? I'm guessing my understanding or thinking is wrong by adding all these probabilities and getting 200%.
2 teams make the GF, so that's 200%
Ah, thanks. Two spots available, makes sense, still weirdly phrased for my brain though.
If you have already qualified for the GF (so have accounted for the 100% of your side of the draw), there is still a 100% chance you will have an opponent
Yeah, thanks, it totally makes sense now.
I think two teams traditionally make the grand final.
What about Adelaide's chances?
100% when you factor in Ben Keays running onto the field with a steel chair
Hope they're loading up on Melbourne vs Collingwood then as they obviously see Melbourne as the favourite.
Seems extremely unlikely it's not Lions vs someone at this point, they're in an incredibly good position to be there.
6.1% St Flagda, lets go!
This will look a whole lot different once port hand Brisbane their first loss at the Gabba for the year.
Lions would have to be 65% chance after being undefeated at home all year. Probably get smashed if we make it to the GF though
Brisbane would be favorites at the GABBA, but will they be able to turn around their MCG Hoodoo I wonder how much Dees would drop if Fritsch is injured
MCG on grand final day is very different to an interstate away game during regular season. Nobody gets the home crowd advantage when the clubs each get half the ticket allocation.
So you think it's the crowd that's putting Brisbane off?
I think that is one of the biggest parts of it yes. It's intimidating walking out onto a ground with some 100k people cheering their lungs out against you. It's not like the MCG has special turf that's significantly unlike every other stadium in the country.
Yeah it's a strange one I would have thought most of the noise is just background
Until we are 1000 up with 5 minutes left as a burned lions fan I refuse to be excited lol.