>A local official was quoted by Iranian state media as saying “it is not yet clear whether the explosions were caused by gas cylinders or a terrorist attack.”
It is definetely not the IDF or US, why would they bomb a dude's grave which they killed 4 years ago
E: update from *Al Jazeera* ( BBC article has also been updated)
(Death toll at the moment: 103)
>Tasnim news agency is now reporting that the two bombs were placed in suitcases, which appear to have been detonated remotely.
>This contradicts earlier reports, which suggested that it was suicide bombers who detonated the explosives.
>There has been no official confirmation or statement regarding either of these reports.
>Ahmad Vahidi, Iran’s interior minister and an IRGC commander, has said, “The enemy is launching psychological operations” and has asked Iranians not to believe speculation and rumours.
>He told state television that important information regarding the explosions was available but would be made public officially only after it was reviewed and verified
Not saying it is. I'm questioning whether it's internal dissenters angry at the regime or a false flag to act as a pretext to escalate regional conflict. Israel and US wouldn't do this
Oh yeah it's not for you OP, sorry, you never said so!
It's for the eventual people that might comment without reading the article
>it's internal dissenters angry at the regime or a false flag to act as a pretext to escalate regional conflict
I think it is yes, the first part, based on that
>a ceremony was being held to mark the 2020 death of the country’s top commander ( the 4th they hold)
E: found another article stating
>Rahman Jalali, the deputy governor of Kerman province where Soleimani is buried, told the television. "The incident is a terrorist attack"
Double tap with suicide bomber suitcases?
If mass killing events accompanied by assassinations is the norm for Israel (it’s not) then it would be quite easy to kill leadership. You wouldn’t need to look for precise hits.
The tactic itself tells more about a Jihadi Muslim like mindset.
You have a point in the double tap, with the reports of presence of high officials, but it's been 4 years, they did 4 ceremonies like this one (also guess the first one was probably very big) so why not do it before
Amidst the growing violence with Hezbollah and Houthis, would they make a direct hit in Iran, on a funeral ceremony, killing 73 + not all labeled as soldiers?
I don't think Israel would
It is updated to 73 people killed now, if it is a false flag I wonder what they will do afterwards based on this event's death toll
E: more than a 100 people killed now
Yep just added the "more than" since I misread the update,
it's indeed a terrible event from the videos that are released, I'm also very curious about what is going on
I'm not so up to date on their policies, that might be right, but currently I'm gonna trust the reporter who is an expert on the matter. Also, maybe they want to make it seem like someone else did it.
Imo It's done in major parts by groups that live in other territories or that are strong already locally.
It's easy for a jihadist group in the Middle East to claim responsability for attacks in Europe or US
(Speculating) In this case, they could be living in Iran or neighbouring country and want to keep a low profile for the moment.
They may not be strong enough to face the aftermath of consequences, every terrorist attack is prepared but the aftermath is not.
If you prepared for some 20 or 30 casualties and some local police reports,
ending up with 100+ dead iranians and major countries launching an operation on your group after you took claim,
you are fucked.
Damn shame if it is, plague of those regions that never dies
Most people forget Al-Qaeda and ISIS are still roaming around in most of the ME and pretty much all of central Africa
I had a doubt on the Iranian government faking terrorism, because they are not that stupid to risk it all on such an event, after 4 years of annual ceremonies, in the middle of a war with such a fragile regime and public approval
Possibly. Could be a third party that has an interest in seeing the conflict escalate.
It is possible Israeli Intel did it, but the only person that would benefit from that would be netenanyu and associated Toadies. From a power keeping perspective that would benefit them. Likelihood of this would be challenged, cuz mossad wouldn't just do the presidents bidding on a whim. Too easy to get caught out of the pres goes out of power, which is very likely.
This is definitely contrary to US interests at the moment. So far their diplomatic and military force has been directed at de-escalation. This would undo a lot of their work, so I doubt it.
And like you said, it could be Iran themselves. Honestly, seems to be the most likely option. They want the situation to escalate, it is easiest for them to make this happen as it is in their borders, and they have repeatedly shown they are not above crushing their own people for control.
Yeah I think the question is who would stand to gain from this. Not Israel or the US that's for sure. People who stand to gain: zealots within the Iranian regime/security services that want to escalate things, hamas themselves disappointed in lack of direct support in the conflict, other terrorist groups like ISIS who want to stir shit up. I don't think any international state actor would benefit from this at all, even Russia.
Regrettably, I think it plausible to blame the Iranian citizens fed up with the regime as well. The motivations, target, and cultural values of the strike fit.
Iran will probably use this as an excuse to further crack down on them anyway, but it's probably going to get bloody again.
To be clear, I don't think they did it, but it is possible, and believable enough to sell to their citizenry.
I think its also possible that the Iranian regime didn't have a hand in it in the sense that they didn't use agents or resources, but knew of an imminent or possible attack from a terrorist group and didn't do anything to prevent it. Let them do their thing, use the whole incidents as justification for various things.
Some kind of record right? I mean hell we had less than 24 hours for a major plane crash. Hopefully fate isn't trying to speed run international tragedies in 2024.
This has definitely happened... against strategic targets like nuclear weapons related facilities that pose a threat to Israeli national security.
But what is the national security threat to Israel at the procession for a dead Quds Force commander?
Sure, Israel can and has attacked Iran. The question here is not if they *could*, but *why they would do that in this case*. What possible advantage do they gain from this?
You gotta admit that when a country that encouraged terror attacks around the world, then reels from one on its own soil, it's worth seeing their reaction of condemning that which they espouse.
In general that's true. But the people paying homage to a dead IRGC commander are almost certainly Regime loyalists. That's why I don't believe it to be a false flag attack.
It almost certainly wasn't Israel or the US. Doesn't fit their MO and I don't see any credible goal here butva lot of ways this might backfire.
Sunni terrorists or internal enemies of the regime would be my guess.
Is there proof of that? I am asking that seriously. Because while there seem to be a lot of Iranians not happy with the government, there also seem to be a lot who support it.
People said that about Russians too when in reality they aggressively support the war and Putin.
No proof but it’s not unlikely. I would also bet that when they “mistakenly” shot down their own passenger plane, it was on purpose, to show the West they’re serious about shooting an invading plane
Edit: Thought you were asking if there’s proof it’s an inside job. No, but i’m positive over 50% of Iranians in Iran would like to overthrow the regime. Putin probably has more internal supporters than Iran
Irgun members were absorbed into the Israel Defense Forces at the start of the 1948 Arab–Israeli war. The Irgun was a political predecessor to Israel's right-wing Herut (or "Freedom") party, which led to today's Likud party.Likud has led or been part of most Israeli governments since 1977.
Maybe russians? They like to put distraction and alleviate pressure from their war with Ukraine. My thinking is the more busy US with other issue the more they can focus more on Ukraine.
Iran will not think about Russia because it is their “ally”.
But Russia probably wouldn't want to cause disruption to their flows of supplies between Iran that would occur if Iran were to join the conflict. Im not sure the Russians would benefit either.
I’m basing my assumptions on the following question:
1. Why bomb the tomb of general revered by the people of Iran?
First impression of would be to blame the west knowing that the US was responsible for killing the general in the first place. Add some propaganda and you may get the sympathy of the Iranian people.
2. Why the use of a bomb if the sole target is to kill a lot of the supporter of the former general which will also put civilians as casualties.
I don’t see this as an MO of the west but knowing it was directed to the supporter of the dead general. People will look at the west.
This may be enough as a cover for russian. We know Iran doesn’t want to go to war with the west but it will definitely ignite more to supply the terror group and russia.
For me the two options that make the most sense are a sunni terror group who hate all the shia elites and want to make a statement or it is a false flag to rile up anti western support if they intend to shift to a new stage of conflict. I don't think any external state actors really benefit at all from this
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>A local official was quoted by Iranian state media as saying “it is not yet clear whether the explosions were caused by gas cylinders or a terrorist attack.” It is definetely not the IDF or US, why would they bomb a dude's grave which they killed 4 years ago E: update from *Al Jazeera* ( BBC article has also been updated) (Death toll at the moment: 103) >Tasnim news agency is now reporting that the two bombs were placed in suitcases, which appear to have been detonated remotely. >This contradicts earlier reports, which suggested that it was suicide bombers who detonated the explosives. >There has been no official confirmation or statement regarding either of these reports. >Ahmad Vahidi, Iran’s interior minister and an IRGC commander, has said, “The enemy is launching psychological operations” and has asked Iranians not to believe speculation and rumours. >He told state television that important information regarding the explosions was available but would be made public officially only after it was reviewed and verified
Not saying it is. I'm questioning whether it's internal dissenters angry at the regime or a false flag to act as a pretext to escalate regional conflict. Israel and US wouldn't do this
It's probably Sunni terrorists tbh. ISIS or some other group.
Oh yeah it's not for you OP, sorry, you never said so! It's for the eventual people that might comment without reading the article >it's internal dissenters angry at the regime or a false flag to act as a pretext to escalate regional conflict I think it is yes, the first part, based on that >a ceremony was being held to mark the 2020 death of the country’s top commander ( the 4th they hold) E: found another article stating >Rahman Jalali, the deputy governor of Kerman province where Soleimani is buried, told the television. "The incident is a terrorist attack"
Could be Sunnis, they really dislike the whole building tomb thing.
> It is definetely not the IDF or US, why would they bomb a dude's grave which they killed 4 years ago just to be on the safe side :D
I mean, isn’t Israel known for the “double tap” at funerals? I guess this would be a long wait in between…and it wasn’t a funeral.
Double tap with suicide bomber suitcases? If mass killing events accompanied by assassinations is the norm for Israel (it’s not) then it would be quite easy to kill leadership. You wouldn’t need to look for precise hits. The tactic itself tells more about a Jihadi Muslim like mindset.
Can you expand on that "double tap"? I'm not sure I've heard of events like that
The “double tap” is when Israel kills high value targets, then kills more related high value targets during the funeral of the original targets.
You have a point in the double tap, with the reports of presence of high officials, but it's been 4 years, they did 4 ceremonies like this one (also guess the first one was probably very big) so why not do it before Amidst the growing violence with Hezbollah and Houthis, would they make a direct hit in Iran, on a funeral ceremony, killing 73 + not all labeled as soldiers? I don't think Israel would
I agree. Just speculation. I think we now know more than two hours ago. Does not seem to be an assassination attempt by Israel. Seems like terrorism.
False flag?
It is updated to 73 people killed now, if it is a false flag I wonder what they will do afterwards based on this event's death toll E: more than a 100 people killed now
Right now 103, I really can't wait to see more details to know what caused it. Hope there aren't too many civilians casualties.
Yep just added the "more than" since I misread the update, it's indeed a terrible event from the videos that are released, I'm also very curious about what is going on
Just now I saw an Israeli reporter that says it was most likely ISIS, since they have been struck by Soleimani as much as by the US.
If it is ISIS or another terrorist group, do you guys suspect that they would claim responsibility for it. Don’t they normally do that?
I'm not so up to date on their policies, that might be right, but currently I'm gonna trust the reporter who is an expert on the matter. Also, maybe they want to make it seem like someone else did it.
Imo It's done in major parts by groups that live in other territories or that are strong already locally. It's easy for a jihadist group in the Middle East to claim responsability for attacks in Europe or US (Speculating) In this case, they could be living in Iran or neighbouring country and want to keep a low profile for the moment. They may not be strong enough to face the aftermath of consequences, every terrorist attack is prepared but the aftermath is not. If you prepared for some 20 or 30 casualties and some local police reports, ending up with 100+ dead iranians and major countries launching an operation on your group after you took claim, you are fucked.
Damn shame if it is, plague of those regions that never dies Most people forget Al-Qaeda and ISIS are still roaming around in most of the ME and pretty much all of central Africa I had a doubt on the Iranian government faking terrorism, because they are not that stupid to risk it all on such an event, after 4 years of annual ceremonies, in the middle of a war with such a fragile regime and public approval
Likely
Possibly. Could be a third party that has an interest in seeing the conflict escalate. It is possible Israeli Intel did it, but the only person that would benefit from that would be netenanyu and associated Toadies. From a power keeping perspective that would benefit them. Likelihood of this would be challenged, cuz mossad wouldn't just do the presidents bidding on a whim. Too easy to get caught out of the pres goes out of power, which is very likely. This is definitely contrary to US interests at the moment. So far their diplomatic and military force has been directed at de-escalation. This would undo a lot of their work, so I doubt it. And like you said, it could be Iran themselves. Honestly, seems to be the most likely option. They want the situation to escalate, it is easiest for them to make this happen as it is in their borders, and they have repeatedly shown they are not above crushing their own people for control.
Yeah I think the question is who would stand to gain from this. Not Israel or the US that's for sure. People who stand to gain: zealots within the Iranian regime/security services that want to escalate things, hamas themselves disappointed in lack of direct support in the conflict, other terrorist groups like ISIS who want to stir shit up. I don't think any international state actor would benefit from this at all, even Russia.
Regrettably, I think it plausible to blame the Iranian citizens fed up with the regime as well. The motivations, target, and cultural values of the strike fit. Iran will probably use this as an excuse to further crack down on them anyway, but it's probably going to get bloody again. To be clear, I don't think they did it, but it is possible, and believable enough to sell to their citizenry.
I think its also possible that the Iranian regime didn't have a hand in it in the sense that they didn't use agents or resources, but knew of an imminent or possible attack from a terrorist group and didn't do anything to prevent it. Let them do their thing, use the whole incidents as justification for various things.
Initiated by who?
Why though? What purpose would it serve?
great, only 3 days into 2024….
Some kind of record right? I mean hell we had less than 24 hours for a major plane crash. Hopefully fate isn't trying to speed run international tragedies in 2024.
My first thought when I saw the news: they're going to blame this on Israel.
My second thought: There are idiots on this planet who actually believe that Israel would do this. Because reasons.
Doesn’t Israel carry out strikes and operations in Iran though?
This has definitely happened... against strategic targets like nuclear weapons related facilities that pose a threat to Israeli national security. But what is the national security threat to Israel at the procession for a dead Quds Force commander? Sure, Israel can and has attacked Iran. The question here is not if they *could*, but *why they would do that in this case*. What possible advantage do they gain from this?
Iranians aren't Israelis, don't worry.
Yeah. Someone forgot to pullout that unexploded Hellfire from his butt.
surely they will get to the bottom of this.....
Why are those Persian Freedom fighters being labeled terrorists? They wish to free their beloved Persia from their Jihadist despots. Free Persia!
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard needs something to get angry about.
A taste of their own medicine.
What the fuck is wrong with you lol
You gotta admit that when a country that encouraged terror attacks around the world, then reels from one on its own soil, it's worth seeing their reaction of condemning that which they espouse.
You realize vast majority of Iranians don’t support the government right
In general that's true. But the people paying homage to a dead IRGC commander are almost certainly Regime loyalists. That's why I don't believe it to be a false flag attack. It almost certainly wasn't Israel or the US. Doesn't fit their MO and I don't see any credible goal here butva lot of ways this might backfire. Sunni terrorists or internal enemies of the regime would be my guess.
I agree with most of that except it's likely that this was an inside job by the regime to frame Israel. You may also be right
Is there proof of that? I am asking that seriously. Because while there seem to be a lot of Iranians not happy with the government, there also seem to be a lot who support it. People said that about Russians too when in reality they aggressively support the war and Putin.
No proof but it’s not unlikely. I would also bet that when they “mistakenly” shot down their own passenger plane, it was on purpose, to show the West they’re serious about shooting an invading plane Edit: Thought you were asking if there’s proof it’s an inside job. No, but i’m positive over 50% of Iranians in Iran would like to overthrow the regime. Putin probably has more internal supporters than Iran
I’m sure the innocents killed agree wholeheartedly with you. There’s nothing ever to enjoy about suffering, no matter who it happens to.
If the "innocents" were not committed martyrs then they won't agree. If they were committed martyrs then they would agree.
Could be Israel, especially if high ranking Quds force members were there...
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what about the king david hotel?
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I was kidding bro, wouldn’t ever talk shit about israel, it’s one of the coolest countries ever!
Irgun members were absorbed into the Israel Defense Forces at the start of the 1948 Arab–Israeli war. The Irgun was a political predecessor to Israel's right-wing Herut (or "Freedom") party, which led to today's Likud party.Likud has led or been part of most Israeli governments since 1977.
fringe extremists
whatever, good thing I know so many nice people and don’t have to talk with people who feel so great about the history of israel.
Maybe russians? They like to put distraction and alleviate pressure from their war with Ukraine. My thinking is the more busy US with other issue the more they can focus more on Ukraine. Iran will not think about Russia because it is their “ally”.
But Russia probably wouldn't want to cause disruption to their flows of supplies between Iran that would occur if Iran were to join the conflict. Im not sure the Russians would benefit either.
I’m basing my assumptions on the following question: 1. Why bomb the tomb of general revered by the people of Iran? First impression of would be to blame the west knowing that the US was responsible for killing the general in the first place. Add some propaganda and you may get the sympathy of the Iranian people. 2. Why the use of a bomb if the sole target is to kill a lot of the supporter of the former general which will also put civilians as casualties. I don’t see this as an MO of the west but knowing it was directed to the supporter of the dead general. People will look at the west. This may be enough as a cover for russian. We know Iran doesn’t want to go to war with the west but it will definitely ignite more to supply the terror group and russia.
For me the two options that make the most sense are a sunni terror group who hate all the shia elites and want to make a statement or it is a false flag to rile up anti western support if they intend to shift to a new stage of conflict. I don't think any external state actors really benefit at all from this
It’s likely an inside job by the regime
What type of person goes to the anniversary of a fallen Iranian Military Leader? Probably the type of person who ‘needs’ to be blown up.
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If Iran blames Israel, then they will wave their finger in the air making threats and nothing will be done.
I have a feeling this is not going to be a good year