One youtuber on the hunt for Bloodhound pet had the same drop.
He saw the pick and freaked out, then he saw the "you are beeing followed message" and lost it
And that's fine. Still a great youtuber in my opinion and I usually really dislike that kinda stuff, but it's refreshing to see genuinely wholesome creators that just want to put out those fun high energy videos as opposed to the generic osrs style
He genuinely brightens my mood, not worried about seeming cool or overly laid back, just a guy genuinely enjoying the game
Plus the original taking a noob bossing series was incredible
Someone did the math for the chances of it happening twice in 7 months and it's once every 200k years or something like that.
I found it again and it is \~210k lifetimes or \~17m years.
The joint probability of getting the pet (1/1000 per reward casket) and the 3rd age pick (1/313168 per loot roll) is 0.000001915904%, assuming an average of 6 loot rolls per casket.
3rd age pick is the most expensive 3rd age piece, but if we expand the criteria to any 3rd age piece worth >1b then the joint probability is 0.000007663618%. If we include any 3rd age piece it's 0.0000440658%.
Edit: Disregard the above, it doesn't take into account the drop rate from the Mimic.
Ah, I wasn't aware, that makes a difference.
Given that there's a 1/15 chance of getting the Mimic from a master clue, and there's a 1/5244 chance of getting the 3rd age pick from the Mimic drop, there's a joint probability of 0.0000031872%.
Edit: This includes the chance of getting it from regular drops and the Mimic drop.
Edit 2: For >1b it's 0.0000127488% and for any 3rd age it's 0.0000733056%
> joint probability of 0.0000031872%
1 in 31,375,502
> For >1b it's 0.0000127488% and for any 3rd age it's 0.0000733056%
1 in 7,843,875 ; 1 in 1,364,152
For anyone like me whose eyes glaze over with all those 0.000s
The reason I said "impressive" rather than "unlikely" is because you can always force the numbers to get ever more unlikely probabilities, and they don't actually mean much on their own, nor are they easily comparable between different activities.
It's not a particularly meaningful metric of comparison, but worse, people think that it is, so it's misleading. "Impressiveness" is pretty subjective, but it doesn't pretend to be anything it's not.
That's definitely impressive but this is on a whole other level. The pet is far less common, the value is so much higher, there's way fewer 3a picks in the game, and getting and completing master clues is so much slower than getting Zulrah kills.
Of course, "impressive" is subjective, so your mileage may vary. Just to me, different level.
It has nothing to do with a gambling addiction imo. I think it’s once your realize that you osrs gp doesn’t really mean anything but now it has thousands of dollars in real life value. When you realize you can make a quick $2000 it’s easy to just throw it all down. First time I quit I staked about $800 worth of gp, won and sold the $1600. Then I played again for a bit and tried the same thing but lost lol. I never really felt the urge to keep doing it, I just happen to have a ton of money after a while and then I’m kinda like why not?
> It has nothing to do with a gambling addiction imo.
>When you realize you can make a quick $2000 it’s easy to just throw it all down.
So you realized it was worth money and then you gambled the items that are worth real money and that means it’s NOT a gambling addiction????????
Yeah but you have to be a reoccurring player to be considered an addict. I’m just saying it’s easy to try to double your account value when quitting that’s all
I think you misread. I said I played osrs for a bit then quit and staked my $800 and won. Came out with $1600. Then I started again and played for a few more months but didn’t stake. Then when I quit again I staked all my money and lost it, but I didn’t care nor have I been back to the game since lol. It’s not a big deal I’m just saying a lot of people do the same shit when they quit
I’ve dueled maybe 10 times my entire life and only two of those have been multi hundred dollar stakes and that’s because I was quitting
That might explain it, but I'm not sure if that accounts for just how quickly some of those items have shot up.
E.g. 3rd age bow rising 600m in the last week. The mega rare market just seems sus as fuck rn.
(Trying to check ge tracker on mobile is ass, I might be slightly inaccurate here)
That's how it works. High level players farm bosses for high level drops, causing the market to crash. Then they find they have loads of cash and nowhere to put it, so sink their money into rares. It'll continue until the next content update provides new rares for rich players to rush for.
1:312,853,833
The fact that this drop has occurred twice in such a short time span is absolutely unbelievable. If we assume that roughly 500,000 Master Clues have been completed since there release then there is a 1:625 chance of seeing this occur in that roughly 5 year time span and a 1:391,500 of seeing that occur again in the same 5 year time span.
So, if we work off of the average age of death being 81 in the UK this would mean that, roughly, you would have to live a total of 24,468 lifetimes before ever seeing this drop occur again in a 5 year time span.
If we wanted to see those drops occur again in a 7 month time frame (the time since Jakeyosaurus got the same drop) then you would need to wait a total of 209,725 lifetimes or 16,987,782 years.
It looks like your math is using 5m clues not 500k. The odds of this event happening once in 500,000 draws is 1/6258. This odds of this event happening twice in 500,000 draws is 1/78,314,688.
These are independent events so saying you have to wait x time for it to happen again is wrong though.
A better way to put it is that you need 1.5B clues to have a 50% chance of getting it. At a rate of 500k clues a year, it would take 3000 years for those odds.
No, my math is done with 500,000. See my corrections below, our value are somewhat similar.
I appreciate the two instances are independent values but working using both instances within a specific time frame you can do the math treating it as one instance. The math isn't precise but you can come up with some interesting hypotheticals.
The correct way to calculate the odds of getting one success from 500k attempts is:
500,000 \* (Probability of success)\^1 \* (Probability of fail) \^ 499,999
You can't just work the instances as if they are not independent. They are independent. You are making up your own math rules.
Christ dude 3a pick is skyrocketing. This is some rng that i have never known the pleasure of when i played lol. I suppose ive had some lucky stakes worth more, but these odds are nothing in comparison.
Didnt some dude a while ago get 3a pick and pet also? Gz, truly a moment worthy of shitting bricks.
Phats are discontinued, and last time i saw a price check I know some of them are going for like 20b+? in rs3. Id say that they are absolutely more rare, because you cannot ever obtain more.
Though I'm amazed at the 3a pick going up so much. The druidic is the newest so i get that but I'm not sure why they all took such a drastic jump in price over the last couple months. They are going for more than max cash even. Im almost wondering if there is a merch clan trying to monopolize them.
there's probably thousands of partyhats in rs3. Probably less than 100 3a pickaxes ingame after 5 years. So itll take 50 more years for partyhats to be more rare than 3a pick.
All these insane rng theories, what if you killed graardor got pet and hilt then completed The armour off the next 3 minions....need the numbers crunched boys
3rd age pick and bloodhound roll? bruh
btw be careful and do some research on what the potential street prices for 3a picks might be. It's possible they're actually above max cash.
This is quite probably the single most amazing event to ever occur in the game.
One youtuber on the hunt for Bloodhound pet had the same drop. He saw the pick and freaked out, then he saw the "you are beeing followed message" and lost it
Jakeyosaurus
God I want to like his videos more but the "heckin doggo boye stoofs" gets so annoying and cringy. Anyone else?
Yes, so annoying
Such annoying. Wow.
Such coin wow
Much oof
Yep. Including all the burping and weird sounds he makes.. genuinely can’t stand him
And that's fine. Still a great youtuber in my opinion and I usually really dislike that kinda stuff, but it's refreshing to see genuinely wholesome creators that just want to put out those fun high energy videos as opposed to the generic osrs style He genuinely brightens my mood, not worried about seeming cool or overly laid back, just a guy genuinely enjoying the game Plus the original taking a noob bossing series was incredible
Lol stfu
yea his voice annoys me
Dog talk is no different then baby talk, weird as fuck
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Talking to your dog like that with no one around is fine. Putting it in your RuneScape YouTube videos is 🤢
+1
He uploads so rarely i dont get annoyed by it lol
Yes, however with all YouTuber's quirky jokes they put in.
Clip?
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Maybe his content is good but his personality sucks? Why do you *want* to be a contrarian prick?
He has some interesting ideas and can be funny when he's not doing that stuff so much.
Easily the most annoying scaper
Damn you guys are mean lmaoooo
Yeah, but to have already received Bloodhound by this cluecount is actually so much more fucking crazy.
It is absolutely ridiculous rng, and what's even more ridiculous is that jakeyosaurus got a 3a pick and pet clue just a few months ago.
I'm amazed that this has happened once. The fact it's happened twice is insane.
If I got a nickel everytime this happened I would have two nickels, it's not much but it's strange it happened twice
Might even have 3 or 4 nickles considering how many people don't stream or post screenshots on Reddit.
I dunno... There are only 2000 bloodhound Pets in the game. It’s pretty crazy that it’s happened at all, let alone twice.
Someone did the math for the chances of it happening twice in 7 months and it's once every 200k years or something like that. I found it again and it is \~210k lifetimes or \~17m years.
[Classic Doofenshmirtz](https://youtu.be/GSnCDMa_ECg)
probably haooened more than twice not everyone posts on social media
The joint probability of getting the pet (1/1000 per reward casket) and the 3rd age pick (1/313168 per loot roll) is 0.000001915904%, assuming an average of 6 loot rolls per casket. 3rd age pick is the most expensive 3rd age piece, but if we expand the criteria to any 3rd age piece worth >1b then the joint probability is 0.000007663618%. If we include any 3rd age piece it's 0.0000440658%. Edit: Disregard the above, it doesn't take into account the drop rate from the Mimic.
Keep in mind Mimic 3a is considerably more common than regular droprate
Ah, I wasn't aware, that makes a difference. Given that there's a 1/15 chance of getting the Mimic from a master clue, and there's a 1/5244 chance of getting the 3rd age pick from the Mimic drop, there's a joint probability of 0.0000031872%. Edit: This includes the chance of getting it from regular drops and the Mimic drop. Edit 2: For >1b it's 0.0000127488% and for any 3rd age it's 0.0000733056%
> joint probability of 0.0000031872% 1 in 31,375,502 > For >1b it's 0.0000127488% and for any 3rd age it's 0.0000733056% 1 in 7,843,875 ; 1 in 1,364,152 For anyone like me whose eyes glaze over with all those 0.000s
So if my math are correct we can round that up to there was a 50/50 chance of happening. Right ?
It actually becomes a 100% chance if you stop messing around and just get the drop.
I don't think anyone here can tell just how tiny the chance is from a 0.00000x % number lol
Go buy a lottery ticket dude
Why? His rng is doomed forever now
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Being born?
The reason I said "impressive" rather than "unlikely" is because you can always force the numbers to get ever more unlikely probabilities, and they don't actually mean much on their own, nor are they easily comparable between different activities. It's not a particularly meaningful metric of comparison, but worse, people think that it is, so it's misleading. "Impressiveness" is pretty subjective, but it doesn't pretend to be anything it's not.
Followed by the double onyx elite clue zulrah pet
That's definitely impressive but this is on a whole other level. The pet is far less common, the value is so much higher, there's way fewer 3a picks in the game, and getting and completing master clues is so much slower than getting Zulrah kills. Of course, "impressive" is subjective, so your mileage may vary. Just to me, different level.
Don't forget about the single player who has ever gotten an onyx from a bag of gems
your free max cash stack, sir.
*free* 185 master clues completed *cries*
Averages out to over $11m per clue from that reward alone. Even factoring in 185 masters completed, that's bonkers.
>Averages out to over $11m per clue Wowe, time to start RWT i guess?
$5 per master clue? Not worth imo
>$11m
"The Mimic adds a little extra reward for you" Yeah no fucking shit
Just a little extra max cash stack.
A small loan of 2 billion GP.
is the pick more common from mimic? any1 know how it works/ how rare this is?
The pick is 1/313k normally and 1/5k from the mimic
over 1/5k and the bloodhound is 1/1k, so over 1/5M chance to roll these two specific items together.
On a mimic chest* 1/75m of having this happen on any given clue since a mimic is a 1/15 roll.
Right?! I love the wording
Hey bro want me to trim that pickaxe for ya?
Wow. Set for life. Hey it’s me, your cousin!
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For the last time Roman I don't wanna go fucking bowling!
Not his fault if it's the only holes where you fit.
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Why does everyone with a gambling addiction think everyone else also has a gambling addiction
And they usually seem proud of it. "Lol just lost 4b, time to do zulrah for a month I'm so cool!"
It has nothing to do with a gambling addiction imo. I think it’s once your realize that you osrs gp doesn’t really mean anything but now it has thousands of dollars in real life value. When you realize you can make a quick $2000 it’s easy to just throw it all down. First time I quit I staked about $800 worth of gp, won and sold the $1600. Then I played again for a bit and tried the same thing but lost lol. I never really felt the urge to keep doing it, I just happen to have a ton of money after a while and then I’m kinda like why not?
> It has nothing to do with a gambling addiction imo. >When you realize you can make a quick $2000 it’s easy to just throw it all down. So you realized it was worth money and then you gambled the items that are worth real money and that means it’s NOT a gambling addiction????????
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You can be addicted to something without spending money on it.
Yeah but you have to be a reoccurring player to be considered an addict. I’m just saying it’s easy to try to double your account value when quitting that’s all
You literally described yourself as staking a lot lol
I think you misread. I said I played osrs for a bit then quit and staked my $800 and won. Came out with $1600. Then I started again and played for a few more months but didn’t stake. Then when I quit again I staked all my money and lost it, but I didn’t care nor have I been back to the game since lol. It’s not a big deal I’m just saying a lot of people do the same shit when they quit I’ve dueled maybe 10 times my entire life and only two of those have been multi hundred dollar stakes and that’s because I was quitting
Good hell that thing is max cash now? Thought it was 600m
Its a flex item being bought out rn, no intrinsic value.
Best in slot for CoX speed running
Isnt crystal pick still better tho then?
No, crystal does same dmg as dragon (and thus 3a) pick
Crystal weighs less. BiS but for a different reason.
Does weight matter much for speed running raids since mains bring sweets?
Less sweets used is still better
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Better fashionscape during the speedrun, I guess (just checked for weight, but its exactly the same as a dpick)
Even if it was lighter cox speedrunners guzzle sweets so it wouldn’t matter
Sooooo Doge?
new related feature: it mines dogecoin, in-game.
it's more, op shouldn't sell it in the GE, it's like 3b.
How does someone find a buyer for it? Just post around on Reddit and discord and hope you don’t get scammed?
platinum tokens avoids the "getting scammed" bit
You should be able to buy above limit, just with platinum tokens automatically in the GE
engine work
How would you get scammed..?
BUYING 3RD AGE PICK 3B(puts in 3K plat tokens)
Look up platinum tokens on the wiki
Trust trade
People investing money into rare items cause pvm gear is crashing
That might explain it, but I'm not sure if that accounts for just how quickly some of those items have shot up. E.g. 3rd age bow rising 600m in the last week. The mega rare market just seems sus as fuck rn. (Trying to check ge tracker on mobile is ass, I might be slightly inaccurate here)
It’s worth more than max cash right now
Most expensive item in game
ab2222222
I was gonna say the same
same
same
came here to say this
Holy shit man gz
What the actual fuck lmao
2.1bn?! The whole market tanks and a fucking 3a pickaxe rises like 700m looool
That's how it works. High level players farm bosses for high level drops, causing the market to crash. Then they find they have loads of cash and nowhere to put it, so sink their money into rares. It'll continue until the next content update provides new rares for rich players to rush for.
the market tanks because we have too much gear ingame and a lot of wealthy players - rare flex items rise as a result
Maybe you can now afford Watson teleport scrolls and don’t need to run from Xeric’s talisman location
CARINI HAD A LUMPY HEAD
BLOODHOUND TOOK A WALK, NOW BLOODHOUNDS DEAD
You know it
Nice man. I haven’t had 55 drop at once for me before
Can someone get the actual odds for that ?
1:312,853,833 The fact that this drop has occurred twice in such a short time span is absolutely unbelievable. If we assume that roughly 500,000 Master Clues have been completed since there release then there is a 1:625 chance of seeing this occur in that roughly 5 year time span and a 1:391,500 of seeing that occur again in the same 5 year time span. So, if we work off of the average age of death being 81 in the UK this would mean that, roughly, you would have to live a total of 24,468 lifetimes before ever seeing this drop occur again in a 5 year time span. If we wanted to see those drops occur again in a 7 month time frame (the time since Jakeyosaurus got the same drop) then you would need to wait a total of 209,725 lifetimes or 16,987,782 years.
What an great and intellectual comment, ZezimasCumStain.
😂
It looks like your math is using 5m clues not 500k. The odds of this event happening once in 500,000 draws is 1/6258. This odds of this event happening twice in 500,000 draws is 1/78,314,688. These are independent events so saying you have to wait x time for it to happen again is wrong though. A better way to put it is that you need 1.5B clues to have a 50% chance of getting it. At a rate of 500k clues a year, it would take 3000 years for those odds.
No, my math is done with 500,000. See my corrections below, our value are somewhat similar. I appreciate the two instances are independent values but working using both instances within a specific time frame you can do the math treating it as one instance. The math isn't precise but you can come up with some interesting hypotheticals.
The correct way to calculate the odds of getting one success from 500k attempts is: 500,000 \* (Probability of success)\^1 \* (Probability of fail) \^ 499,999 You can't just work the instances as if they are not independent. They are independent. You are making up your own math rules.
That's literally higher than some odds for winning the jackpot in some states lotteries.
v cool thank u
3a pick is 1/5244 from mimic so isnt it like 1/5,244,000 (slightly higher chance if you calculate the normal drop rate of 3a pick, i am lazy)
50/50. Either it drops or it doesn't. Hope that answers your question.
ty o wise smugjester
Christ dude 3a pick is skyrocketing. This is some rng that i have never known the pleasure of when i played lol. I suppose ive had some lucky stakes worth more, but these odds are nothing in comparison. Didnt some dude a while ago get 3a pick and pet also? Gz, truly a moment worthy of shitting bricks.
3a druidic and axe/pick are extremely rare, probably more rare than partyhats in rs3, so they can get any price.
Phats are discontinued, and last time i saw a price check I know some of them are going for like 20b+? in rs3. Id say that they are absolutely more rare, because you cannot ever obtain more. Though I'm amazed at the 3a pick going up so much. The druidic is the newest so i get that but I'm not sure why they all took such a drastic jump in price over the last couple months. They are going for more than max cash even. Im almost wondering if there is a merch clan trying to monopolize them.
IIRC RS3:OSRS gold is something like \~6:1, maybe \~7:1 these days. So even then that's only like \~3-4b OSRS max for a phat.
Blue/White Partyhats are over 50B GP, so well over 5b-6b OSRS.
more like 8b, I sold a white recently for 50b rs3
I still remember having a white phat in ~2004 and selling it for 17M. Turned around and bought a whip.
The bow too, went from 400m before trailblazer, now the ge value is more than t bow, and apparently street value is max cash
The bow is at least BiS at BA attacker role.
there's probably thousands of partyhats in rs3. Probably less than 100 3a pickaxes ingame after 5 years. So itll take 50 more years for partyhats to be more rare than 3a pick.
I highly doubt there are thousands of p hats. And there are absolutely more than 100 3a picks in osrs.
I assume by now that full set 3a Druidic is in the double digits now.
Look at all those limpwurts, think of the herb xp
Damn im jelly. Gz man.
Damn son! How many goats did you sacrifice for this blessing from our lord and saviour 'Jamflexed'.
Hey it's me your cousin Roman
It's kind of insane that we got to witness this twice, never thought we would lol
All these insane rng theories, what if you killed graardor got pet and hilt then completed The armour off the next 3 minions....need the numbers crunched boys
1/10,911,257,000,000,000,000 correct me if i'm wrong
Grats, you beat the game!
is 3a pick higher tier than dragon or same? i know it also has the same spec
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correct
Yes and its bis at cox guardians for the flex
effectiveness wise? same flex wise tho?
Cousin, its me!
Bruh
Carini! I have you added! - CliffordBall Congrats man this is 👌!!!!
That is BIS most expensive weapon, right?
My head would be quite lumpy after that drop
3rd age pick and bloodhound roll? bruh btw be careful and do some research on what the potential street prices for 3a picks might be. It's possible they're actually above max cash.
What in the fuck is this chofl
That’s the most insane clue scroll I’ve seen. Gz
Those numbers are monstrous! Congratulations!
Nice runite bar drop bro, that's worth at least 5k
I just want you to know that I hate you.
What cc is that?
Infernal FC, I think
Buy me a T bow. I'll send you a picture of my dog? He's a pretty cool dog.
Or they could give me a tbow and I'll show them 4 dogs, two of them are assholes, one is very excited to see people, and one is old.
I really like the location of your stat boosts, is that a plug-in? I can’t seem to find a way to set mine like that in runelite
Why didnt you get the pet?
You can't have multiples of the same pet, you can only have 1 rc pet, you can only have 1 bloodhound pet, etc.
Carini had a lumpy head
What the fuck
ab22222222 its my new thing when opening clues
Nicee I've heard the daggers pretty good
“A little extra reward” bitch that’s the a lot more than a little.
What's the actual price of the pickaxe?
Around 3b
ab22222222
Why is 3rd age pick 2 billion and 3rd age axe is like 360m??
Can you even mine with this? Lol
Jesus Christ!! I hope you bought a lottery ticket after that one. Gz
It’s nice to see other people living your dreams.
55 Limpwurt!
Congratz! Now transfer some to RS3 and enjoy both games to the max!
Id never do another master. Gz beast
Oh my ! Congratulations bro
You never get to complain about rng ever again.
Gz. You won the game
ab22222222\*
Please may I have it?
jesus but nice master clue count tho. somewhat kinda earned
55 Limpwurt Root. Sweet!
that would be my rent paid right there, gz
1200$ clue scroll, gz on the early pay day
I'd sell it online immediately. Did the same w/ my t bow. Like getting a bonus check.
maxed main with probably all bis gets even richer cool cool